Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
057 FXUS64 KBMX 071634 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1134 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025 A longwave trough extends from over Hudson Bay in Canada southwest to over the Northern Plains and Midwest while broad ridging persists over much of the Southern Plains eastward across much of the Southeast. Strong surface high pressure was positioned offshore of the Eastern Seaboard while a surface cold front extended from Southeast Michigan southwest to across the Midwest and into the Central Plains with another front analyzed immediately to the southeast across the Mid-South Region stretching southwest into Northwest Louisiana and South-Central Texas. Mostly cloudy skies covered much of the forecast area early this morning with some decrease in cloud cover expected towards midday while isolated shower activity was detected by radar generally across the northwest portion of the area. Today. Expect skies to become partly cloudy across all but the northwest counties by this afternoon as more clouds will persist further northwest. Scattered (45-55%) shower activity is forecast across the northwest fifth of the area with isolated (20-45%) chances generally along and northwest of a line from Montgomery to Alexander City to Roanoke with lower chances southeast. Along with the shower chances will exist potential for a few (10-30%) afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s with highest values south and southwest. Winds will be from the south to southeast at 4-8 mph. Tonight. Mostly cloudy skies are expected overnight with isolated (20-45%) chances for showers and a few (10-20%) thunderstorms generally near and north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s northwest to around 70 southeast. Winds will shift out of the southwest overnight with light speeds from 2-4 mph. Wednesday. Longwave troughing aloft will extend more meridionally from over Southeast Canada southward to over the Eastern Ohio River Valley Region. The surface cold front will advance into the area from the northwest, becoming positioned roughly along the Interstate 20 corridor by late afternoon as strong surface high pressure builds over much of the Great Lakes region. Expect mostly cloudy skies across much of the area at least through early afternoon before some decreasing clouds begins across the west and northwest. Isolated (15-30%) chances for showers with a few (10-20%) thunderstorms will exist generally from near Selma northeast to near Anniston and points east/southeast. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s far northwest to the upper 80s far south-central. Winds will become northerly through the day with speeds from 6-12 mph. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025 Wednesday night through Thursday night. The upper levels are expected to amplify through this time frame with the forecast area becoming positioned between longwave ridging over much of the Plains while deep troughing persists over much of the Eastern Seaboard and Northeast. Most global and regional models develop a mid-level impulse late Wednesday over Missouri and advect it southeastward to over the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley Regions later in the day on Thursday. This mid- level disturbance is progged to move southeast over the eastern portion of the forecast area into Thursday night. Partly cloudy skies are forecast Wednesday night as lingering showers dissipate far east and southeast after sunset. Cooler temperatures behind the front with lows from the lower 50s far northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Winds will remain from the north at 4-8 mph. Expect partly cloudy skies Thursday with more clouds to the north and east. There will be isolated (10-20%) chances for showers forecast for areas generally along and east of the Interstate 59 corridor with a few (10-20%) thunderstorms possible across the southeast portion of the area. Depending on the strength and position of the aforementioned disturbance, these chances may increase and placement adjusted in future forecasts. High temperatures will range from the low 70s far north and far east to readings in the low 80s southwest. Winds will be from from the northeast at 6-12 mph. Decreasing clouds are expected Thursday night with lows ranging from the lower 50s northeast to around 60 southwest. Winds will be from the east and northeast at 4-8 mph. Friday through Monday. The mid-level disturbance will continue to move further southeast over South Georgia on Friday before moving northeast over the Coast of the Carolinas this weekend. Longwave amplified ridging will continue to build over much of the Mississippi River Valley Region over the weekend while two upper lows potentially affect much of the Eastern Seaboard and Northeast. Dry conditions are forecast across our area as drought conditions will persist. Temperatures will modify as highs return to the 80s across all but the northeast portions of the area Saturday and encompass much of the forecast area to start the next work week. Low temperatures will bottom out Sunday morning with lows in the upper 40s across portions of the north and northeast counties with low 50s elsewhere, followed by widespread readings in the 50s to start the next work week. 05 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025 Patches of MVFR ceilings were impacting terminals at times this morning, along with scattered SHRA development. Ceilings are forecast to mix out to VFR category by 14z, with scattered showers and perhaps a few storms developing by this afternoon. With low chances for showers to move across the terminals, have gone with PROB30s in the forecast as opposed to TEMPO groups at this time. Winds will remain light today, generally 10 knots or less from the southeast. VFR conditions will prevail through most of the rest of the period, with lower ceilings possible once again moving into northern and western Alabama by 12z Wednesday morning. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated shower chances with a few thunderstorms are forecast today and tomorrow, however, widespread wetting rainfall is not expected and rain amounts will be too light to help the ongoing drought. RH values are forecast to remain above 50% each afternoon through Friday. Winds today will be from the south up to 8-10 mph. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to continuing drought and dry fuels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 83 65 82 60 / 40 40 20 0 Anniston 83 68 82 61 / 30 30 20 10 Birmingham 85 68 82 62 / 40 40 20 0 Tuscaloosa 86 68 85 60 / 40 30 10 0 Calera 86 68 85 62 / 30 30 20 0 Auburn 85 68 84 65 / 10 20 30 10 Montgomery 87 70 86 66 / 20 20 20 10 Troy 85 68 86 65 / 20 10 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...56