683
FXUS62 KCAE 260018
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
718 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather continues with a chance for showers this afternoon
and into Wednesday. A very dry and cold air mass moves in
behind the front for the remainder of Thanksgiving week.
Temperatures return to seasonal values late in the weekend but
the chance of rain also returns by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Increasing clouds and rain chances arrive overnight tonight.

- Warmer than normal lows expected ahead of the approaching
  front.

The weather is a bit more active than it has been the past
several days. Large scale troughing is developing across the
CONUS as a northern stream shortwave phases and amplifies a
southern stream trough. A broad surface low exists across the
upper MS valley as a result of this, with a surface cold front
extending southward into the TN Valley region. This front is
approaching the area slowly, with deep southwesterly flow ahead
of it supporting an overall increase in atmospheric moisture.
We`ve seen this manifest a bit already today with showers moving
across the western FA earlier this afternoon. Expecting showers,
and embedded thunderstorms, to survive eastward as the night
goes on and end up in our forecast area sometime after ~2a. PWs
by this point should be in the 1.2"-1.5" range with synoptic
scale forcing sufficient to augment the frontal forcing that
will slowly be approaching. All in all, the showers that do
approach are not forecast to be very intense or heavy, with
isolated thunderstorms the only real hope of heavy rainfall.
Coverage seems suspect in guidance, though the showers earlier
this afternoon held together much better than expected so that
does lend some credence to guidance pushing the showers all the
way into the FA by mid-morning tomorrow. Regardless, the
forecast looks low impact overall. Lows tonight should be in the
low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Scattered rain showers and isolated storms into early
  afternoon ahead of cold front.

- Breezy and warm Wednesday before cold front moves through.

- Much colder and drier Wednesday night through Thursday night

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Strong upper low/trough moves
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley driving a cold front
through the forecast late Wednesday into Wednesday night. A line
of scattered showers is expected to be ongoing at the start of
the forecast period with the axis of highest PWATs around 1.5
inches moving through the forecast area and strong moisture
convergence along and ahead of the front. Isolated thunderstorms
also possible with MUCAPE values as high as 500 J/kg but mainly
across the eastern half of the forecast area. Overall rainfall
totals are not expected to be very high with most locations
receiving a tenth of an inch or less but isolated locations
could see up to a quarter inch.

Breezy conditions are expected with an increased pressure
gradient and 850mb winds around 25 to 35 knots resulting in wind
gusts of 25 to 30 mph at times. Strong winds also expected with
the surge of cold advection that arrives Wednesday evening
behind the front and a lake wind advisory may be needed although
it looks marginal at this time. Temperatures will continue to
be warm with above normal highs as the cold air lags a bit
behind the front and surges in during the evening hours. Highs
should again be in the 70s but temperatures plunge Wednesday
night with lows falling into the 30s with the cold advection,
despite non-ideal radiational cooling.

Thursday and Thursday Night: A significantly colder and drier
air mass settles over the forecast area on Thanksgiving day with
dewpoints in the low to mid 20s and possible upper teens by
Thursday afternoon. This will likely result in near critical RH
(25%) but winds should be quite a bit lower than on Wednesday.
High temperatures will be well below normal with 850mb temp
anomalies 5 to 10 degrees below normal resulting in highs in the
50s with continued cold advection. Overnight lows expected to
drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s under mostly clear skies
but still not ideal radiational cooling as the center of the
surface high remains to our west over the MS Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cold and very dry air mass remains in place into the weekend.

- Temperatures moderate some late in the weekend into early
  next week with possible increasing rain chances.

The upper trough axis shifts east of the area on Friday with
500mb heights and flow becoming more zonal as strong surface
high pressure migrates eastward to the east coast Friday night
and Saturday. The cold and dry air mass will remain over the
forecast area Friday and Saturday with high confidence in below
normal temperatures with highs struggling to get out of the 40s
and low 50s both Fri/Sat. Friday night looks to be the coldest
night with near ideal radiational cooling with calm winds and
clear skies and very dry air mass resulting in lows well into
the 20s. NBM may still be on the warm side for lows as the NBM
50th percentile is several degrees colder and MOS guidance is
also a few degrees colder.

Ensemble mean 500mb flow Saturday into early next week shifts
more southwesterly across the southeastern states in response to
upper level troughing over the western part of the country.
This upper flow pattern should support a transition to more near
normal temperatures with increasing moisture and chances of
rain. While details remain uncertain that far out, ensemble
PWATs rise to 150-175 percent of normal Sunday into early next
week which would favor increased chances of rain with any
shortwave energy moving through the southwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front will bring chances for rain and restrictions.

VFR conditions in place currently with high clouds passing over
the terminals. A cold front will approach the area with
increasing winds out of the southwest. While it is likely that
surface winds will increase enough to prevent low level wind
shear conditions, will need to monitor observations through
tonight. Showers ahead of the front, moving through central GA
currently will continue to approach the terminals. While
guidance supports this activity generally weakening, have kept
the prob30 group for rain showers, MVFR visibilities, and
lowering ceilings. Low level moisture should be sufficient to
support MVFR ceilings at all terminals late tonight into
tomorrow morning. Behind the front late morning into the
afternoon, winds will increase out of the west with gusts around
20 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases Sunday with
increasing rain chances and chances for restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$