Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
447 FXUS64 KCRP 011918 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 - Risk for Coastal Flooding will increase Friday night - Near to slightly above normal temperatures through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 The main hazard from the forecast for the upcoming week will be the potential for Coastal Flooding. Winds will be shifting to the northeast within the next day or so which will begin to setup up Ekman Transport. As the northeast winds increase to the 15-25 mph range Friday through Sunday, the risk for Coastal Flooding will increase as Ekman Transport strengthens. Apart from Ekman Transport, near astronomical high tide of a full moon phase and swell periods around 8 seconds will bump up our chances for minor coastal flooding to medium to high chances. The P-ETSS model is showing water levels between 1.7-2.1 ft above MSL (10th and 90th percentile, respectively) for Friday and Saturday night with water levels trending higher Sunday and Sunday night. If this trend continues, a Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued in the next 48 hours or so. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and into next week. Below normal PWAT values will help us stay dry through Thursday. However, moisture will begin to increase with near normal PWATs filtering in Friday which will lead to low to medium (20-50%) chances for rain each afternoon from Friday through early next week. While rain chances will return to the forecast, rain amounts are expected to remain below 1" at best for the next 7 days, thus beneficial rainfall is not expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle with light and variable winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 A light to gentle breeze (BF 2-3) will continue through Thursday night before increasing to a fresh to strong breeze (BF 5-6) Friday and continuing through Saturday night. Winds are expected to decrease to a gentle breeze (BF 3) Sunday morning. Dry conditions will continue through tomorrow night increasing to medium to high chances (50-85%) across the Gulf waters Friday through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Forecast afternoon minimum relative humidity will generally range from 25-35% across the Inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country through Friday. Moisture increases Saturday into early next week with minimum relative humidity above 30%. While the drier airmass is in place and Energy Release Components ranges from 50th-90th percentile, weak surface and 20 ft winds will limit the fire risk, but will be worthy of monitoring regardless. Slightly above normal temperatures will continue with low to medium (20-40%) shower and thunderstorm chances returning Friday and continuing into early next week, mainly along the afternoon seabreeze. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 92 72 90 / 0 10 10 50 Victoria 68 94 67 92 / 0 0 0 30 Laredo 71 97 71 95 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 68 96 68 93 / 0 10 0 40 Rockport 74 91 74 90 / 0 10 10 50 Cotulla 69 97 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 68 93 69 91 / 0 10 0 50 Navy Corpus 77 88 78 87 / 0 10 10 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...JCP/84