183
FXUS64 KCRP 030006
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
706 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Key Messages:

- Well-above temperatures Thursday afternoon, reaching into the
  100s along the Rio Grande

- Breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts in the 30-40 mph
  range through Thursday night

With the 500 hPa trough over the Desert Southwest, this places
much of Texas under southwest flow aloft, keeping our mid-to-upper
levels dry. At the surface and 850 hPa, higher dewpoints continue
to be advected into the Southern Plains. At 850 hPa, a low-level
jet continues to enhance this moisture advection, as well as
mixing down higher winds aloft. These are primarily mixing down
east of a daily dry line that moves through the Brush Country,
keeping temperatures toasty to the west of this dry line, and
muggy and warm to the east. With the dry line only making it as
far as the coastal zones, this will be the primary area of locally
stronger winds Thursday and Friday morning. The LLJ tonight seems
to shift the axis of 40 kt+ winds more towards SE Texas. The LLJ
on Friday morning does seem to bring near 60kt winds aloft over
South Texas. For this reason, the Small Craft Advisory will
continue through at least early Friday morning, but will likely
be extended into the weekend with the subsequent forecast package.
Wind gusts observed across the coastal zones today have shown
some sites reaching the 40 mph mark, but it has been too scattered
to warrant a Wind Advisory. Forecast wind gusts, at this time,
appear to be below criteria for any inland headlines, but will
continue to monitor the CAMs tonight and discuss with the evening
crew on whether one is warranted. Visibility-wise, the most likely
locations for any drops below 6 miles will be in the coastal
zones, but this will be short lived given the gustier winds
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Key Messages:

- Well-above normal temperatures through Friday, with a cooldown
  to more seasonal temperatures through the weekend.

- Increased chances for accumulating rainfall along the immediate
  coast and marine zones this weekend.

Very minimal changes from the inherited Extended forecast package.
Wet conditions return to the area by the end of the work week and
early into the weekend as a mid to upper level low traverses from
the Desert SW into the Southern Plains. Moisture will pool ahead of
it with PWATs rising to around 1.6-1.7" Friday into Friday night.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will start off at around 20-30% over
NW portions of the CWA Friday night, before transition E during the
day on Saturday as a cold front moves across. Highest rain/storm
probabilities will shift into the marine zones by Saturday evening
with up to a 60% chance, while remaining at less than a 20% along
the immediate coast. The aforementioned front will lead to much
drier conditions on its wake with minimum RH values falling into the
teens over portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains over
the weekend into nearly next week. Rain chances will drop to near
zero again late weekend as surface high pressure surges in. Winds
will remain elevated and gusty at times which will increase our fire
weather concerns as the ERC class also rises into the 50-70th
percentile across portions of the area by the weekend. Very warm
temperatures Friday with highs in the mid 80s to near triple digits
will cool into the 60s and 70s Sunday into Monday. Overnight lows
will bottom in the low 40s to low 50s Sunday and Monday nights.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are prevailing across the region with some
MVFR conditions currently at VCT. Conditions mainly at the
eastern terminals are expected to deteriorate over the next
couple of hours to MVFR lasting through midmorning. VFR
conditions will return there after and persist through the day.
Winds will be elevated at the eastern sites with gusts around
20-30 knots through tomorrow.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

With a coastal trough remaining in the western Gulf and high
pressure dominating the eastern Gulf, strong south-to-north pressure
gradient can be expected. This translates to fresh to strong (BF
5/6) onshore flow through Saturday morning. Offshore waters can
expect 9-11 ft waves, and 5-8 ft in the nearshore waters for the
same time period. For this reason, a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect through at least early Friday morning, but may be extended
further into the weekend. Before a cold front moves through on
Saturday, onshore flow weakens briefly to gentle (BF 4) winds, but
as the winds switch to be more offshore by Saturday night, winds
will increase to be fresh to strong once again. Rain chances will
increase to around 30-60% Saturday night into Sunday, followed by
dry conditions behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Dry line passages across the Brush Country will drop relative
humidity values as low as 10-30% through Thursday. Weak 20-ft
winds will keep the fire risk at bay. Rain chances will be low to
medium (20-30%) Friday out west, before transitioning eastward on
Saturday ahead of a cold front. This boundary will move across
the area on Saturday with minimum RH values falling into the teens
across portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains
through early next week. Winds will remain elevated due to a tight
pressure gradient, and will become gusty at times. This, in
combination with Energy Release Components (ERCs) in the 50th to
70th percentile class, could result in periods of Elevated to
Critical fire weather concerns mainly out west over the weekend
into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  93  73  89 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          72  89  73  87 /   0   0  10  10
Laredo            72 101  73 102 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             71  99  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
Rockport          73  86  74  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           73  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        72  98  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       73  83  73  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AE/82
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...NP/92