130
FXUS64 KCRP 071132
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
532 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

- Fog in the morning then warm, followed by a cold front in the
  afternoon.

- Cooler and dry tonight/Monday, then warming trend through late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Patchy fog and low ceilings have returned to portions of South Texas
this evening. Current satellite observations show the mid to upper
level cloud deck has drifted offshore, leaving behind a low stratus
deck. Although not fully confident that it will be a dense fog event
as opposed to a low stratus deck, will continue to carry patchy to
areas of fog in the forecast through the night as fog probabilities
remain at 30-60% (HREF) while winds will be light and dewpoint
depressions will near 1-2 degrees F. These foggy conditions/low
stratus deck is forecast to remain in place through the morning
hours before lifting as a cold front slides through the region in
the afternoon. A much drier airmass will then take over (PWATs
<0.5"), with gusty winds mainly along the coast and over the marine
zones.

The rest of the week will be rather uneventful. A few weaknesses
will still be able to push through in the mostly zonal flow aloft,
but with a lack of deep layer moisture, the forecast will remain
dry. The next cold front is shaping to arrive towards the end of the
work week.

Temperatures will be warm ahead of the front today with highs in the
mid 70s to mid 80s. Tonight and Monday night will be much cooler
with lows dipping again into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Expect a
gradual warming trend Tuesday through Thursday, before temperatures
fall again in the wake of the next frontal boundary late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions dominate across South Texas, with dense fog
focused over the Coastal Plains impacting ALI/VCT the greatest.
Can also see CRP experience dense fog of 1/2SM or less over the
next couple of hours. Fog is less likely over COT/LRD but ceilings
still are problematic. Conditions improve to VFR by this afternoon
as a cold front pushes southward into the region. Winds shift from
the north in the wake of the front, becoming sustained around 15
knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Winds weaken overnight and the drier
air will help maintain VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Expect a gentle to moderate breeze across the coastal waters
ahead a cold front today. Winds are forecast to shift offshore and
strengthen to strong to near gale levels in the wake of the front
tonight with Small Craft Advisory conditions lingering through
Monday afternoon. Northerly winds will gradually shift southeast
and southerly mid-week becoming gentle to moderate once again.
There is a potential for patchy fog along the bays and nearshore
waters this morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A cold front will move through South Texas this afternoon with
minimum relative humidity values dipping below 30% both today and
Monday. However, due to low ERC and generally weak to moderate
winds, confidence is low for any elevated fire weather conditions.
Onshore flow returns on Tuesday, with moisture increasing across the
region and limiting our fire weather concerns through mid week.
Minimum relative humidity values will dip below 30% again late week
as another frontal boundary moves across, but no fire weather
concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  46  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          77  40  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            82  47  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             81  43  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          77  47  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           81  41  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        82  45  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       77  51  62  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ231>234-
     241>247-342>347-442-443-447.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ231-232-
     236-237-250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
     for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...ANM/88
AVIATION...EMF/94