853
FXUS63 KDDC 122302
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread Rain Event Expected Friday Night through Saturday.
  There is a 50% chance that rainfall totals in excess of 0.5
  inches will be possible across south central Kansas. Isolated
  higher amounts can not be ruled out in the Pratt and Medicine
  Lodge areas.

- Very windy conditions and near critical or critical fire risk
  possible across portions of southwest Kansas early next week,
  especially on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The 500mb flow this morning remains west northwesterly across
the Central United States, with a weak upper level disturbance
embedded in this flow moving southeast toward the Ohio Valley.
As this system moves east/southeast, a weak surface boundary
will drop south into the Texas Panhandle of Oklahoma. Further
west, a stronger, southern branch upper level trough, located
over California early this morning, is forecast to move through
the Desert Southwest. As this upper level trough approaches the
Rockies today, falling pressures will occur across eastern
Colorado as a surface trough of low pressure develops by early
Friday. This setup will tighten the surface pressure gradient
across southwest Kansas, resulting in a developing south
southeast wind early in the day Friday that will increase
through the afternoon. Although dry conditions are expected
through early Friday across southwest Kansas, isentropic lift
and warm air advection will begin to increase north of the cold
front tonight and Friday as the California upper level system
crosses the southwest United States and approaches the Texas
Panhandle.

By late Friday, the upper level trough will move into the
southern Rockies as an 850-700mb low begins to develop over
northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. East of this
developing low, the low level winds will increase, advecting
higher Gulf moisture northward to central Kansas. Latest models
suggest these gusty south winds will draw Precipitable Water
values near 0.75inch into south central Kansas, which is around
the 90th percentile for mid February.

This moisture return, combined with improving isentropic lift
and warm air advection near the nose of a low level jet which
will be located ahead of the approaching upper trough, will
result in a chance for precipitation starting late Friday
(20-30%) increasing to >80% around midnight and then continuing
through Saturday. This widespread rain event will occur until
the upper trough moves out into the southern Plains and the
850-700mb low tracks east/northeast toward north central
Oklahoma/south central Kansas by Saturday evening. This
extended period of widespread rain and high precipitable water
values easily support the latest QPF forecast of a greater than
50% chance for rainfall totals to be greater than 1/2 inch
across south central Kansas by Saturday evening. Also would not
be surprised to see locally high amounts across south central
Kansas (mainly in Pratt and Medicine Lodge areas) given the
forecast high precipitable water values (PWATs) near the nose of
the low level jet. Further north and west, PWATs will be lower,
and the window of opportunity for widespread rainfall will be
smaller, resulting in less accumulation Friday night through
early Saturday. As a result, locations west of Highway 83 and
along the I-70 corridor currently have a 50-70% chance that
rainfall totals from this evening will be less than 0.25 inches.

Rain will end across western Kansas late Saturday/Saturday
night as the upper trough moves east. An upper level ridge will
quickly build in on Sunday and then track east across the
Central United States early next week. Meanwhile, a significant
upper trough will drop south along the West Coast by Monday and
deepen across the western United States. This pattern sets the
stage for another period of dry and unseasonably warm conditions
next week.

In addition to the warmth, winds will increase early next week
due to a deepening surface low developing east of the Rockies
and steep low level lapse rates favoring deep mixing. This
mixing will tap into stronger 850-700mb winds, possibly near 50
knots at this level according to some models. These strong
winds, combined with low humidity, will create a high fire
weather risk across much of southwest Kansas. The NBM already
suggests near critical to critical fire weather conditions early
next week. Given the NBM`s tendency for low wind bias late in
the week, the strong mid level winds, and expected lower
dewpoints, fire weather conditions could expand to cover more of
southwest Kansas, especially on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The meteorological setting will continue to favor good aviation
conditions through this TAF period. Winds will remain light with all
terminals expected to remain 10 knots or less through pretty much
the entire period through Friday afternoon. High clouds will thicken
through the period with mid level clouds coming in during the day
Friday ahead of the next storm system, however low level ceilings of
MVFR or IFR are not expected until later on Friday Night, after the
end of this TAF period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid