117
FXUS63 KDDC 070424
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1124 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extremely hot weather will return for the weekend and early
  next week.

- A cold front mid next week is expected to bring cooler
  temperatures and moderate to high chances (up to 60%) for rain
  for the Wednesday night through Friday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A stationary front will remain just south of Kansas through
Friday. There is a very small chance of a t-storm this evening
along the front near the KS/OK state line and any storm that
manages to form could become severe with large hail. Later
tonight some elevated convection may form across parts of
central Kansas along a low to mid level baroclinic zone and then
move eastward. However, the latest model guidance favors
eastern Kansas. Chances for rain across southwest Kansas are
very low this evening and tonight (20% or less), with highest
chances (30-40%) across central Kansas.

Upper level ridging will expand across the plains through the
weekend and then persist into early next week. This will lead
to very hot weather, with highs from 100-105 degrees Saturday
and 102 to 107 by Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. However, given
that the warm front will have shifted north of I-70, resulting
in deep mixing and dilution of the moisture in the vertical,
heat indices will stay a little below the actual temperature.
Nevertheless, heat headlines may be required as we get closer
to the weekend.

The upper level ridge will begin to flatten out by mid next
week. The biggest forecast problem is the amplitude of an upper
level trough progressing from southwest Canada into the Great
Lakes region that will push a cold front through Kansas. There
is uncertainty among the various ensemble means and clusters
about the strength and timing of the front. Wednesday should be
cooler along I-70; but 100 degree heat may persist along the
KS/OK state line, especially if the front is slow. T-storms are
also a possibility by Wednesday as weak upper level impulses
move across the Rockies and approach the high plains along the
southern extremity of the westerlies. High temperatures in the
80s are strongly suggested by the ensemble means by Thursday,
with the Grand Ensemble showing 60-70% chances for .5" or
greater of rain across central and western Kansas during the
Wednesday to Friday time frame. Keep in mind that the frontal
location will make a large difference in rainfall patterns and
the highest chances of heavier rains could shift southward if
the frontal surge is stronger. The potential for locally heavier
rain is expressed by the 75th/90th percentiles, which indicate
1" and even 2" rains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Thunderstorms have begun to clear the area, but there is a
possibility of redevelopment during the early parts of the TAF
period. However, chances are very low for storm to directly
impact the terminals. Will keep mention of storms out of the
TAFs given the low confidence. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected throughout the TAF period with southerly and
southeasterly winds generally on the order of 5-10 knots,
perhaps 10-15 knots through Friday afternoon. No storms are
expected Friday afternoon or evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Bennett