413
FXUS63 KDDC 281856
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
156 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain over central Kansas and isolated t-storms over western
  Kansas will end this evening.

- Fog is possible tonight as skies clear and winds become
  light.

- Isolated strong to severe afternoon and evening t-storms are
  forecast for Saturday through Monday.

- Temperatures will warm into the 90s by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

The weak upper level system that brought the rain yesterday and
today will move off to the east tonight. Skies will clear from
west to east. However, with a humid air mass, recent rains and
light winds, areas of fog could develop after midnight.

A large closed low over the western United States today will
open up and progress eastward as a stronger system over the
pacific approaches the West Coast. Low level drying across the
western high plains will lead to the development of a strong
moisture gradient, with drier air in far western Kansas and very
moist air to the east. Ahead of the upper level trough,
difluent upper level flow, moderate to high surface based CAPE
and a dryline will lead to isolated to scattered t-storms
Friday and Saturday. The severe risk will cover all of western
Kansas Friday but then shift into central Kansas Saturday as the
dry line pushes eastward. Although the wind shear profile
(hodograph) will not strongly favor tornadoes, large hail and
damaging winds are still concerns given the veering wind
profile. Instead of moving east and pushing a cold front through
Kansas, this upper trough is progged to slow down as it
encounters strong ridging over the Plains. This will keep
western Kansas on the southern edge of the westerlies through
Monday. We are now in the time of year when t-storm clusters
can`t be ruled out as long as there is mid level flow across the
Rockies. Such clusters often form in the lee of the Rockies and
move into western Kansas during the late evening and overnight.
Thus, there are slight chances of t-storms into Monday night.

The various ensemble suites and grand ensemble indicate upper
level ridge formation across the central United States by mid
next week. However, there is still a general tendency to keep
a weakness in the 500mb height field across the plains despite
the high upper level heights, along with a weak upper level
trough over the Desert Southwest. Therefore, this will probably
not be a solid ridge that completely precludes all rainfall;
but rather a pattern that could feature isolated to even
scattered (10-20% chances) t-storm development during the
afternoons and evenings. Where this local height minimum resides
will determine the preferred location for t-storms.

High-end severe t-storm chances are very low starting mid next
week given the light mid to high level winds.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Light rain will gradually taper off at KDDC and KHYS this
evening as a weak upper level system moves eastward. Before 00z,
isolated t-storms are possible at KGCK and KLBL with afternoon
heating in a moist and uncapped environment. With light winds
and partial clearing tonight in the wake of the upper trough,
fog may develop at KLBL, KDDC and KGCK; but it is unclear how
dense.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch