873
FXUS63 KDVN 261725
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect today with west to northwest
  winds gusting between 45 to 55 mph.

- Thanksgiving forecast looks to be a quiet and cool day, with
  temperatures in the 30s and breezy conditions.

- Wintry weather is likely as we head into the weekend, as a
  storm system passes through the Midwest. Uncertainty remains
  on the details, but confidence is increasing for a widespread
  snow event.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today: The forecast remains on track for a very windy day with
west to northwest winds gusting 45 to 55 mph into this afternoon
within in a tight pressure gradient on the backside of a strong
low over the Great Lakes. Some of the highest gusts so far have
been Cedar Rapids (61 mph), Moline (56 mph), Iowa City (54
mph), and Davenport (51 mph). Thinking the 60+ mph gust at Cedar
Rapids was brief/isolated so no plans to upgrade to a High Wind
Warning for now. Therefore, the Wind Advisory remains in
effect, with roughly the western half of counties set to expire
at 3 PM and the eastern half at 6 PM. Otherwise, it will be a
cold, raw day with highs in the 30s and wind chills in the teens
and 20s. Lows tonight will be in the 20s and the wind will
gradually decrease to 15 - 25 mph late.

Thanksgiving Day: Breezy and chilly with highs in the 30s. Early
morning wind chills in the single digits and teens will improve
to the teens and 20s for the afternoon. Dry conditions are
expected with no impacts to travel anticipated. High pressure
building in from the west along with mostly clear skies will
allow temperatures to drop into the teens for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Friday: Quiet and cold conditions are expected during the day
with a ridge of high pressure overhead.

Friday Night - Saturday Night:

Attention turns to the potential for widespread accumulating
snow across the outlook area as a surface low tracks from the
Southern Plains to the Lower Great Lakes, pulling ample Gulf
moisture northward into the region with PWATs reaching
0.50-0.60"+. An upper jet streak is forecast to dive
southeastward across the Intermountain West on the western
periphery of a positively tilted mid-level trough. As the jet
streak rounds the base of the trough axis, the trough should
begin to take on a neutral to slightly negative tilt. This
evolution may support a prolonged period (18-24 hrs) of
accumulating snow as models are showing an inverted surface
trough axis pivoting over eastern Iowa/NW Illinois and points to
the ENE. The bulk of the steady precipitation looks to be near
and downstream of the surface low in a zone of persistent
isentropic lift, upper jet divergence and PVA. Since it`s an
open wave aloft, models are not developing much of a deformation
zone NW of the surface low, although this could change if the
system were to strengthen further.

Latest ensemble guidance has continued to increase snowfall
probabilities for portions of the area. The NBM 24 hr
probabilities for 4" or more range from near 30% across the
southern counties to 50-70% along I-80 and 80%+ north of
Highway 30. The EC ensemble is a little further south on the low
track and is wetter with more QPF than the GFS/CMC ensembles.
The more southern track would be a slightly colder outcome with
high temperatures likely below the current NBM which has
mid/upper 30s I-80 and south. If the southern track verifies,
any rain/snow mix would be confined to the southern counties
too, well south of I-80. Still plenty of uncertainty and
details to sort out with this system 60-72+ hours away.

In terms of timing, models are in good agreement on steady snow
starting late Friday night and continuing through the day
Saturday into Saturday night. With temperatures in the 20s
Friday night the snow will quickly begin to accumulate on
untreated surfaces, leading to slippery conditions. Winter
weather headlines will likely be needed, possibly within the
next 24 hours or so to start messaging the post-Thanksgiving
travel impacts.

Sunday On: Well below normal temperatures are expected into
early next week with the widespread fresh snowpack across the
region. NBM highs are in the teens and 20s with lows in the
single digits and teens.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

We continue to see low clouds over part of the area, which have
largely remained around 3000ft. Although, we may continue to
see some cigs briefly between 2500-3000ft into the afternoon.
Otherwise, the main aviation concern will be the strong winds
that we are seeing. Widespread northwest winds are sustained
between 20-30 KTs, with gusts upwards to 45-55 KTs. We will see
these higher-end gusts decrease through the afternoon/evening,
but we will still remain quite gusty after 00z. Gusts will
remain around 20-30 KTs through the night, lightening up as we
approach 12z Thursday. Otherwise, we will have mostly clear
skies through much of the TAF period after we lose the current
cloud deck.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ015-024>026-
     034-035.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ001-002-007-
     009-016>018.
MO...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Gunkel