051
FXUS63 KDVN 210534
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1134 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stubborn cloud cover will continue through much of the short
  term. Fog is possible again tonight.

- Tight cutoff between rain and no rain across the far south
  will make forecast difficult Friday into Saturday morning.

- A quiet weekend under northwest flow will lead us into a
  potentially wet start to the new work week. Active and cooler
  weather to follow later next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 738 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Have issued a dense fog advisory for tonight into Friday morning
for the extreme south parts of the area.

Observations and webcams are extremely limited but based on
sheriff reports, visibilities are dropping generally south of a
line from Cantril, IA to Macomb, IL.

HRRR is developing some patchy dense fog across the far south
but the more widespread dense fog is progged to be from central
Illinois into central Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Unfortunately, it looks like the clouds will remain in place
across the area through most of the short term period. Active
flow, with stationary/slow moving boundaries will keep
temperatures low and moisture in place across the area. A
shortwave is expected to approach the southern CWA tomorrow from
the SW. The better vorticity advection should remain south of
the area. At the same time, as this wave approaches the area,
surface winds will usher in drier air from the east into our
area.

Looking towards impacts, another decent setup for fog exists
tonight. The HREF is less bullish on potential dense fog,
however many of the recent HRRR runs and other CAMs show a
somewhat similar axis for dense fog tonight as this morning. At
this time, have not gone with any products as later shifts can
continue to monitor trends. Will mention in the HWO though and
in a weather story.

Looking towards the wave, this wave will help to bring drier air
into the area later tonight and into the morning. While this
should cut down on any fog potential, largescale ascent
continues to be forecast across the area, so clouds will be
hard to break out. Maybe some improvement in the bases of said
clouds may occur. What this dry air will do is tighten the QPF
gradient, where some areas will see decent rainfall and 10 miles
north may see nothing. The latest CAMs show showers embedded in
the overall flow. These showers stay south of the CWA. Guidance
has continued the trend of shifting these south, so confidence
is pretty high that most rain will remain south of us. Overall,
are far south could see a couple tenths of an inch of rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The pattern remains quiet this weekend, ushering clearing skies
across the area. Into the holiday week, chances for precip
return to the area with temps cooling for the holiday. There are
two shortwaves that transverse the flow next week. The first one
Monday, and a second stronger one for midweek. There are timing
differences with the second one, which will affect overall
impacts across the area. We will have to watch this one as cold
air could be in place across the region. However, at this time
specifics are hard to come by based on the overall timing
differences.

This weekend looks like a great day to get outside and finish
any yard work left. Sun should return to the area with light
winds as high pressure is expected across the area. Highs in the
50s to near 60 are forecast. Dewpoints will be in the 40s,
meaning these temps will feel pleasant! Next weekend will
likely be much cooler than this, so be sure to enjoy this
weekend!

The pattern at the beginning of next week depicts a shortwave
moving across the central Plains toward us. At the same time, a
stronger wave/trof digs in across the western CWA. This pattern
will help bring moisture into the area from the Gulf. Depending
on the track of the first wave, we will likely see precip. Temps
are forecast to remain above freezing with this wave, so no snow
is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

IFR to LIFR conditions will continue south of I-80 through
early morning, while northerly wind north of I-80 continue to
take over and improve conditions there. Then after 12z Friday
morning the north winds will spread southward as a low pressure
system passes by to our south and southeast. This will help
raise VSBYs and CIGs through Friday evening, with some areas
north of I-80 improving to VFR conditions by FRiday afternoon.
The passing system will keep light rain and lower CIGS at BRL
the longest lasting into Friday evening.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for IAZ099.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for ILZ034-035.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...12