828
FXUS63 KDVN 052058
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
258 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system passing to the north may result in patchy light
  snow or freezing drizzle tonight north of I-80, mainly near
  and east of Dubuque (10-20%).

- A clipper will bring accumulating snow to the area Saturday
  night into early Sunday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has
  been issued for portions of the area.

- Active northwest flow aloft is forecast to continue next week
  with the main storm track near the area. This will bring
  chances of precipitation every 36 to 48 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A shortwave will track across the Midwest through tonight with a
surface cold front moving through the region. This system will
have limited moisture to work with, so most areas will not
receive measurable precipitation. The best chances for some
patchy light snow/flurries or even a little freezing drizzle
(due to loss of in-cloud ice) are north and northeast of the
Quad Cities. This continues to look like a little to no impact
event because any precip that occurs will be very light.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the 20s and teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Overview: The storm track will remain over the area through the
long term period with a slight shifting of the jet stream with
each passing clipper system. There is a clipper forecast
roughly every 36 to 48 hours that will produce mainly light
precipitation/snow chances as they pass near the area.

Saturday - Early Sunday Morning:

A clipper system is forecast to track from western Nebraska
early Saturday to either central or southern Illinois by Sunday
morning. Isentropic lift north of the low track will lead to a
period of widespread light snow across much of eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois. There is potential for a moderate to heavy
band of snow associated with a corridor of lower level
frontogenesis (925-850mb). Thermal profiles per forecast
soundings indicate fairly warm conditions across the south with
850mb temps only a degree or two below 0 C; for I-80 and north
850mb temps drop off to -4 to -8C. Snow ratios outside of the
moderate/heavy band will likely be near to slightly below
climatology, ranging from under 9:1 to near 12:1 (lowest south
of I-80). Where the stronger ascent lines up with the DGZ, snow
ratios may peak over 15:1. Model consensus QPF (from the NBM)
has a zone of 0.25" to 0.35" roughly in the counties
along/north of I-80, with slightly lower values to the south.

The NBM has increased probabilities for 2"+ to 70-90% near and
west/north of the Quad Cities. For 4"+, the probs are 30-60%
near and W/NW of the Quad Cities. And finally, the chances for
6"+ drop off significantly with peak values near west/northwest
of Cedar Rapids between 15-25%. Winds won`t be too strong
initially with this event but still between 10-20 mph at times,
enough to lead to some minor blowing/drifting where the snow is
drier. Decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory (from 6 PM
Saturday to 6 AM Sunday) where confidence is highest on a solid
2-3"+ of total snowfall. However, did hold off across the
northeast and east- central counties due to a later start time
expected in this region and with lower confidence on amounts
because the storm system is expected to gradually weaken with
eastward progression.

Sunday On:

NW winds will increase behind the departing low and could reach
20-30 mph, leading to some blowing and drifting snow in open
and rural areas. The gusty winds will advect a colder air mass
into the region with highs in the teens and 20s, and overnight
lows in the single digits above and below zero.

Warmer air will be drawn northward on Tuesday and Wednesday
ahead of another clipper that is forecast to move across the
area for the middle of the week. This will result in high
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday in the 30s. This system
will pass farther to the north than the one on Saturday night
and depending on the track may result in more of wintry mix
across the area but this will ultimately depend on the track of
this system. Colder air will spread back into the area behind
this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A cold front will move through this evening leading to MVFR
ceilings into Saturday morning. Moisture is limited with this
system, but still the potential for some patchy light snow or
freezing drizzle near DBQ this evening into tonight, along with
brief IFR. Winds will remain relatively light through the period
(under 15 kts).

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for ILZ015-024.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech/Cousins
AVIATION...Uttech