424
FXUS63 KFGF 202318
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
618 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
  evening. A few storms may be strong with gusts to 50 mph.

- Potential for near critical fire weather several days this
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper ridge that has been driving our region`s weather for the
past week or two has flattened some with the approach of a
seasonably strong upper shortwave trough moving through ON into
the northern Great Lakes region. This is allowing cooler,
relatively drier air into the region from the north behind a
series of cold fronts.

Behind these fronts today and tonight will allow temperatures
to be closer to average, as well as bringing gusty northwest /
north winds today, tonight, and Tuesday. Relatively cooler and
drier air aloft atop of seasonable low level moisture combined
with forcing aloft from the passing shortwave trough will allow
widely scattered showers and storms to encroach upon our area
from north to south, generally after 5 PM into this evening.
Increased momentum in the lower to mid level portions of the
cloud-bearing layer will allow gusty downdrafts resultant from
storms - some of which may be in the 40 to 50 mph range.

Winds will stay gusty overnight behind a reinforcing cold front
coincident with moderately strengthen surface pressure rises.
Winds reinvigorate out of the north Tuesday afternoon with the
help of daytime mixing and increased flow aloft lingering within
the region.

Daytime RH values starting tomorrow and lasting into mid to
late week are forecast in the 30-50% range. This combined with
gusty winds tomorrow, and potentially more gusty winds late in
the week combined with warming temperatures, will drive
potential to see fire weather concerns. This is also driven by
rapidly drying fuels within the region after recent spell of hot
and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to sag
southward this evening. Impacts to specific TAF sites carry a
lower predictability, hence the PROB30 groups through the
evening. Pockets of MVFR ceilings are likely to develop in
portions of northwest Minnesota as this moves through, but
expect VFR conditions at all TAF sites early tomorrow morning.
Once this occurs, conditions will remain steady state with
mostly clear skies and VFR conditions. Winds will remain
northwesterly to northerly with gusts approaching 25-30 knots
through tomorrow afternoon before finally tapering off by the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Perroux