747
FXUS63 KFGF 011135
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
535 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog will continue to impact parts of eastern North
  Dakota and northwest Minnesota this morning.

- Widespread rain is expected across the region Monday into
  Tuesday, with high chances for at least 1" of rainfall across
  southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota.

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue, particularly Sunday
  and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A larger/more uniform area of of dense fog spread into northwest
MN (generally north of US Highway 2) and the Dense Fog Advisory
was expanded to account for this. Farther east there had been
several localized pockets of dense fog but they improvement
while light fog (1-6sm) has lingered. The general trend in short
range guidance is still for dense fog impacts to transition
north and improve through 12Z across much of southeast ND and
west central MN, with slower improvement in the northern Red
River Valley. That matches the timing of current products, but
additional adjustments may be made depending on short term
trends.

The system Monday/Tuesday is still on track with high chances
for soaking rainfall (1"+) across southeast ND and west central
MN, and at least a medium chance for similar amounts as far
north as the US Highway 2 corridor depending on the track and
duration of deformation banding around the low center as it
tracks through our region.

UPDATE Issued at 1019 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The main forecast change is the issuance of a dense fog advisory
over much of eastern ND and the northern Red River Valley. Fog
started forming this afternoon in Barnes and Griggs Counties.
Around sunset, fog began expanding. As low level moisture
continues to advect northward overnight, dense fog will develop
along and north of Highway 2. Recent observations in this area are
indicating dropping visibilities, and webcams confirm fog is
becoming more prevalent. Advisories are in effect until 6 AM
Sunday in the south, 9 AM in the north. However there is
uncertainty in when exactly fog will clear. This is especially
true near the Canadian border where fog will likely hang on
longest and may persist beyond the advisories current expiration
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...Synopsis...

Ridging continues to move eastward with southwest flow filling in
from the west. Warm air and moisture is advecting into the 925mb to
700mb layer, thus sustaining a low cloud deck and occasional mist
and light rain. Visibility could be impacted this evening and
overnight, with a chance for 1 to 3 mile visibility during peak
trick or treat hours due to mist and/or patchy fog. Warm
temperatures are expected Sunday into Monday, with afternoon highs
possibly approaching the 60s. This will be dependent on cloud cover,
which could be very slow to clear Sunday morning.

...Rain Event Monday/Tuesday...

A slow moving H5 trough is expected to deepen as we head into Sunday
and Monday. This will bring widespread rain chances into the area
through Tuesday, with around an 80 percent chance of at least a half
inch of rain across southeast North Dakota and west central
Minnesota. Chances decrease further north and west. The heaviest
rain will occur in response to a deformation zone that forms as the
upper low moves off to the northeast. As such, the track of the low
will ultimately determine where the heaviest amounts fall, which
could be upwards of 2 inches to 3 inches inside the deformation
band. Outside this band, the range will be lower, likely in the 0.5
inch to 1 inch range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Areas of dense fog and low stratus responsible for VLIFR/LIFR
impacts are lingering over northeast ND and parts of northwest
MN, with an improving trend over southeast ND and west central
MN where VFR conditions are returning as south-southeast winds
gradually increase and help mix the low levels. While IFR
conditions are expected to transition to MVFR over northeast ND
by this afternoon, prevailing VFR conditions are much less
likely at KDVL. The line between MVFR and VFR ceilings could be
very close to KGFK this afternoon based on current trends in
guidance. Eventually MVFR stratus fills back in late this
evening/overnight tonight as strong low pressure approaches and
IFR conditions should arrive as rain begins to spread into the
region Monday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-054.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ001-004-
     005-007-008-013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty/DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR