087
FXUS64 KFWD 141030
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
530 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions expected today and Saturday with
  isolated afternoon thunderstorms (20-30% chance).

- Low rain chances (15-25%) continue into next week with
  temperatures warming into the mid 90s by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Current forecast is in pretty good shape and our main concern will
continue to be some low potential for thunderstorms to develop
later this morning and afternoon north of I-20. An ongoing complex
of storms across Central Oklahoma will likely stay off to our
north and east, but residual outflow could be a trigger for new
development by late morning. Storm chances will generally be less
than 20%. Additional scattered convection is expected to develop
this afternoon mainly across our southeast counties.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected tonight off to our
north, and there is a little better chance that some of this
activity could make it down into our area early Sunday. We`ve
nudged PoPs up north of I-20 to account for this.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Sunday/

Convection has died out across the region late this evening with
loss of heating and activity across West Texas continues to lose
momentum as it steadily pushes southeast. We should remain warm
and humid overnight with low temperatures in the lower 70s. We`ll
continue to monitor new convective development which is expected
to occur later tonight across northwest Oklahoma as it`ll tend to
move in our general direction by morning. Otherwise we should
remain quiet overnight into early Saturday.

The upper pattern will remain supportive of at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms throughout the Southern Plains and
across Southeast Texas through the weekend, although a lack of
significant forcing or notable frontal systems will make pinning
down location a little more challenging as is common for this
time of year. A mid level ridge will be centered off to our west
keeping the Southern Plains embedded within a modest northerly
flow aloft which will support convective complexes making a run at
North Texas nightly. Additional scattered afternoon thunderstorms
are expected across Southeast Texas which will spread northwest
into the evening hours. We`ll have 20% PoPs mainly north of I-20
this morning with 20-30% PoPs across our east/southeast this
afternoon and maintain this general configuration into Sunday
as well. It is worth noting that the consensus of the global
guidance has come in considerably higher with PoPs over the
weekend, so we`ll continue to monitor this in the short term.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 254 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/
/Sunday Night Onward/

We will have additional opportunities for MCS activity to cross
the Red River into North Texas Sunday night into Monday. Much of
the latest guidance is beginning to hone in on the development of
an MCS (or two) during this time period. While there are still
significant discrepancies in the timing and location of these
storms, there`s certainly a strong enough signal to warrant an
increase in PoPs. For now, have kept them capped at 20-30%, but
they may be increased further as confidence increases over the
next couple of days. Any MCS activity that makes its way into
North Texas would be accompanied by a damaging wind threat, so
ensure you monitor the forecast this weekend for the latest
information.

Otherwise, flow aloft will become more zonal Tuesday and
Wednesday as a mid-level ridge to our west shifts slightly
towards the area. As a result, rain chances will be near-zero
Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge axis may retreat back to the
west late Wednesday, resulting in the brief return of
north/northwest flow aloft. This will allow low rain chances to
return Wednesday night and Thursday as another shortwave trough
clips the region. Seasonably warm temperatures are expected
throughout the week, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s and warm/muggy mornings in the 70s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs are trying to spread north into the D10 airspace this
morning beneath a canopy of high clouds. Expected at least
intermittent MVFR cigs for a few hours this morning at the major
airports before skies scatter out. There is a low chance for some
storms to develop through the afternoon, but coverage is expected
to be too low for mention in the TAF. Better storm coverage will
occur to the southeast this afternoon and evening. We`ll also be
watching the potential for storms to spread out of Oklahoma and
into North Texas early Sunday.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  75  89  76  93 /  20  10  20  30  30
Waco                91  74  91  74  91 /  20  10  30  20  20
Paris               88  73  88  73  88 /  30  20  30  30  30
Denton              92  73  90  74  93 /  20  10  20  30  30
McKinney            90  74  89  74  91 /  20  10  30  30  30
Dallas              93  74  92  77  94 /  20  10  20  30  30
Terrell             89  73  88  74  90 /  20  10  30  30  30
Corsicana           90  74  89  75  90 /  30  10  30  20  20
Temple              91  74  89  73  92 /  30  10  30  20  20
Mineral Wells       93  73  92  74  95 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$