385
FXUS64 KFWD 240725
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
125 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread travel impacts due to wintry precipitation have
  started across North Texas and will gradually shift south into
  Central Texas through the day. Precipitation will end Sunday,
  but travel impacts will linger into Monday and Tuesday.

- Strong winds along with ice on tree limbs and power lines could
  cause sporadic power outages today and Sunday.

- Life-threatening cold wind chills as low as 5 to 10 below zero
  Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights will result in hypothermia
  and frostbite if precautions are not taken.

- A long duration of below-freezing temperatures from tonight
  through Tuesday will increase the risk of broken pipes and
  water damage.

- Final preparations for the impending winter weather need to be
  completed now!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The long advertised winter storm is upon us, with widespread
precipitation falling across much of North and Central Texas. The
Arctic air continues to make its way south with a freezing line at
1 am stretching from Delta County, bisecting the Dallas/Fort
Worth Metroplex to just west of Lampasas. This freezing line will
continue to shift southward through the early morning hours --
anyone that falls below 32 degrees will begin to experience
impacts due to frozen precipitation.

As of 1 AM, precipitation types and intensity varies greatly
- Central Texas continues to experience widespread drizzle,
however, widespread rain is beginning to move in from the south.
For North Texas, precipitation types vary from drizzle to rain
where surface temperatures are above 32 degrees to sleet and
freezing rain where temperatures have fallen below 32 degrees.

This precipitation type transition will continue to slowly shift
southward through the early morning hours as the cold air slowly
shift southward. As mentioned above, the freezing line will mark
the beginning of impact to travel conditions. Once a location
drops below 32 degrees, expect to remain in freezing conditions
through Tuesday.

-------Precipitation Type and Accumulations-------

This system has continued to provide forecasting challenges,
especially when trying to pin timing and precipitation type. This
is largely due to an elevated warm layer, residing around 6,000
feet above the ground. Due to this warm layer remaining quite
strong, much of the precipitation that will fall today will be in
the form of sleet. The exception will be along the immediate Red
River, where a deeper cold airmass may allow for snow flakes to
mix in through the day.

Where the depth of the cold air is not sufficiently deep but
temperatures have dropped below 32 degrees, expect freezing rain
to occur for several hours. This is going to be the case through
the morning hours as the rain transitions to freezing rain. For
North Texas, the freezing rain will be on and off through the
morning before a transition occurs to sleet later today. In
Central Texas, that warm air aloft will be relatively larger than
the depth of the cold airmass, leading to a longer period of
freezing rain.

The ongoing wave of precipitation will impact the region through
the early afternoon hours before a relative minimum in
precipitation occurs this afternoon. The important caveat here is
that it will likely continue precipitating in the form of light
rain or freezing drizzle during the "relative minimum". The
freezing drizzle will continue to accumulate on surfaces as much
of the region is expected to be below 32 degrees by the mid-
afternoon hours.

Another wave of strong forcing for ascent will make its way east
across the region, leading to another bout of frozen
precipitation tonight into Sunday. Precipitation-type with the
secondary wave will be location dependent. North Texas is likely
to see sleet as the dominant precipitation type while Central
Texas sees a mix of sleet and freezing rain. The deeper cold air
will remain along the Red River, therefore, snow mixing in with
the sleet will be possible Saturday night into Sunday. As the back
end of the forcing moves across North Texas, a sleet and snow mix
will be possible across much of the area. By Sunday afternoon,
new precipitation will have come to an end and we`ll begin to deal
with the extreme cold that will settle in Sunday night.

-------Extreme Cold-------

With frozen precipitation covering much of the ground across the
region, extreme cold is expected both tonight and Sunday night.
Tonight, expect lows in the single digits and teens across much
of the region. Wind chills will drop below zero degrees along and
west of the I-35 corridor. For Sunday night, temperatures will
fall below zero degrees northwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex; the rest of the region will be in the single digits to
lower teens. A northerly breeze will worsen conditions are
dangerously low wind chills are experienced across North and
Central Texas. Expect wind chills to range between -10 to 0
degrees area wide. Temperatures this cold will lead to frostbite
within a matter of 30 minutes, therefore, make sure to stay
bundled up with a hat, jacket and gloves if you have to spend time
outdoors. Ensure your pipes are properly prepared and that your
family and friends (including pets) are taken care of.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The cold weather will persist on Monday with continued freezing
temperatures across the region. Frozen precipitation that is on
surfaces will continue to generate impacts across the region,
especially if the area is sheltered. The first glimpse of above
freezing conditions will arrive Tuesday with most of the region in
the mid 30s to mid 40s. Although thawing is expected on Tuesday,
lows will dip into the teens and 20s Tuesday night, quickly
freezing any of the liquid covering the roads. Many slick spots
are expected on Tuesday morning, therefore, make sure to exercise
caution if you plan on being outdoors.

As if the ongoing winter weather wasn`t enough, models continue to
hint at another potential for wintry mischief for next weekend.
There remains a large degree of uncertainty in the evolution of
next week`s system, therefore, we`ll provide additional details
in the coming days as models begin to converge on a potential
solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Temperatures will drop below freezing by 08Z across all Metroplex
TAF sites, and KACT by 13Z. Rain will switch to 1-3 hours of -FZRA
before becoming a mix of FZDZ and/or SHPL. Ceilings will hover
~500ft, potentially bouncing between IFR and LIFR at all TAF sites
for the duration of this forecast period. North winds at 10-15
kts, gusting to 25 kts will persist as well. A lightning strike or
two cannot be ruled out, especially near KAFW and KFTW given its
proximity to a band of convective sleet that has developed across
North Central Texas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    27  14  22   8 / 100 100  40   0
Waco                30  18  24  11 /  90 100  30   0
Paris               21  15  21   6 / 100 100  70  10
Denton              25  10  21   0 / 100 100  50   0
McKinney            25  13  22   5 / 100 100  50   0
Dallas              27  16  22   9 / 100 100  40   0
Terrell             27  16  23   6 /  80 100  40   0
Corsicana           30  20  25  11 /  90 100  40   0
Temple              32  18  26   9 / 100  90  20   0
Mineral Wells       22  11  22   2 / 100 100  40   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>121-123-129>134-141.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ122-135-147-148-
162.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM this morning to noon CST Sunday
for TXZ142>146-156>161-174-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Darrah