Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
621 FXUS64 KFWD 071134 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 534 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures will continue through next week. Low afternoon humidity could lead to some grass fire activity through the weekend. - Low rain chances of 20-50% return Monday night through Tuesday, but no significant rain amounts are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1141 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026 Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a longwave trough extending from the eastern CONUS into the western Atlantic, anchored by a deep upper low near eastern Canada. In its wake, broad mid-level ridging has taken hold across the Southern Plains, with a cutoff low now evident just off the southern California coast. Locally, a weak backdoor front is draped across North Texas this evening. While subtle, this boundary will continue to drift southwest overnight, with a shallow northeasterly push reinforcing the cooler airmass already in place. Temperatures will remain mild by February standards, with lows generally in the low to mid 40s, and a few outlying spots north of I-20 potentially dipping into the upper 30s by daybreak. The arrival of modest post-frontal surface high pressure will keep things quiet and warm today. Afternoon highs will be tempered compared to Friday`s record-breaking warmth, particularly across the northeast zones where the lingering shallow cold air mass will hold temperatures in the mid/upper 60s. Elsewhere, broad subsidence aloft and plenty of unfiltered sunshine will support highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds will veer to the southeast by the afternoon as surface pressure begins to fall in response to the approaching western upper low. The weather will begin to trend towards the unsettled Saturday night into Sunday as the cutoff low off the southern California coast begins to lift east toward the Desert Southwest. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this feature will promote gradual mid-level moisture return, with subtle embedded perturbations in the flow contributing to enhanced upper-level cloud cover beginning Saturday night. While deep moisture will still be limited, cloud bases will steadily lower through the day Sunday as column moisture increases and the low-level wind response strengthens. South winds will help to draw dewpoints into the low to mid 50s and nudging highs back into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1141 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026 The upper low lifting into the southern Rockies late Sunday will eject eastward across northern Mexico and Texas Monday into Tuesday. Ahead of this feature, deepening southerly flow will facilitate continued moisture advection with dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s across much of Central and East Texas. Overnight lows will also trend warmer, a function of the increasing cloud cover and sustained mixing, with temperatures in the mid 50s by Monday morning and nearing 60 degrees in many areas by Tuesday morning. Widespread isentropic ascent and mid-level forcing tied to the ejecting low should support increasing rain chances early next week. While model differences remain regarding the placement and timing of the most robust lift, general consensus supports a window of scattered showers across the area beginning as early as late Monday night and persisting into Tuesday. QPF amounts look modest given the transient nature of the forcing and limited instability, but light rainfall totals up to 0.25" appear probable. The best rain chances will be focused east of I-35 where the better low-level moisture will reside, while areas to the northwest may remain mostly dry. By midweek, a shift in the pattern will only serve to reinforce the above normal temperatures as weak shortwave ridging builds across the Southern Plains. Highs will trend into the mid to upper 70s through Thursday, with some low 80s possible along and west of the I-35 corridor. Lee-side troughing and enhanced low-level southwesterly flow will promote periods of dry and breezy conditions across portions of western North and Central Texas, which may bring an uptick in fire weather concerns mid to late week. Forecast soundings suggest RH values falling into the 20-30% range and gusts potentially exceeding 25 mph where mixing is maximized. Elevated fire weather conditions may need to be addressed in subsequent forecasts if trends persist. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 VFR will prevail through the period across all terminals. Light northeast winds this morning will veer to the southeast before midday, eventually becoming southerly overnight. Wind speeds will generally remain around 6-10 kts. Expect mostly passing high-level cirrus (SCT250) later today and into Sunday morning, with no impacts to flight categories. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 50 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 74 49 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 63 43 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 69 45 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 68 47 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 70 51 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 70 47 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 73 48 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 77 46 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 74 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12