Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
821 FXUS64 KFWD 241916 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 216 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening mainly east of I-35. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible. - Storm chances will remain in the forecast through the weekend, including the threat for some severe weather. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 As of this early afternoon (1:45pm), North and Central Texas remains precipitation free, with clear skies west of I-35 and partly to mostly cloudy skies in the east. The difference in weather conditions in the west vs the east is a byproduct of a sharpening dryline that extends from north to south just west of the I-35 corridor. The sharpening of the dryline is in response to a surface low near Wichita Falls, slowly moving to the east. Dew points in the moist sector are now in the upper 60s to lower 70s. West of the dryline, dew points will continue to decrease through the afternoon bottoming out in the 40s and lower 50s. The aforementioned surface low is inducing southwesterly flow around 5000 feet, spreading a layer of warmer air across the region. With no synoptic scale features inducing strong forcing for ascent today, we`ll rely on the mesoscale features to generate today`s thunderstorm activity. As the area of low pressure advances east later this afternoon, capping should diminish along a corridor that extends from southeastern Oklahoma to Northeast Texas, including the areas of Bonham to Paris and Sulphur Springs. By 7pm today, the areas just mentioned will be at the peak of today`s expected instability, just as the capping inversion weakens. With around 3500 J/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates and about 40 kts of effective shear, scattered severe storms will likely migrate from Oklahoma southeastward. Although 0-1 SRH isn`t overly strong, the presence of a surface boundary along with high instability will promote rapid vertical stretching, enhancing low-level vorticity. For that reason, the threat for tornadoes cannot be discounted this evening. If you`re to the northeast of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, pay close attention later today as there is the potential for a few significant supercells to impact your location. The potential for thunderstorm development near the I-35 corridor is lower compared to East Texas, however, it is not 0%. The lower potential for storms is due to the persistence of the capping inversion which is not expected to completely erode today. There is a 10% chance an isolated severe storm develops and produces mainly large hail. Storms this evening will shift to the southeast, exiting most of our East Texas counties by midnight. Weather conditions overnight and the first half of Saturday will likely be precipitation free with breezy southerly winds. The precipitation-free conditions will be short-lived as yet another round of strong to severe storms is expected in the afternoon. Similar to today, the greatest chance for severe weather will be north and northeast of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex where the cap is expected to weaken in the afternoon in response to a shortwave moving from west to east across Oklahoma. Having said that, with over 5000 J/kg of instability ahead of the dryline extending well into Central Texas, any pockets of weaker capping could produce isolated thunderstorm activity. Any storm that develops, even if it is isolated, is expected to become severe given the very high instability and sufficiently strong effective shear. Although large hail will be the main concern tomorrow, damaging winds and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Thunderstorm activity will diminish after after midnight tomorrow as the remaining thunderstorm activity moves east of our region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 As if this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon wasn`t enough, we`ll have to deal with isolated thunderstorm activity once again on Sunday. The dryline will extend from north to south along the I-35 corridor with 4000 J/kg and 40-50 kts of effective shear developing by the afternoon. A shortwave will be ejecting out of Northern Mexico in the afternoon, providing increased forcing for ascent. The limiting factor across much of the region will be a strong capping inversion that is going to keep any thunderstorm development low. Storm chances along the I-35 corridor will remain capped at 10%. Heading into the next work week, the weather pattern will remain unsettled as we remain under the influence of a trough to our west. Periodic shortwaves will emerge out of Northern Mexico, providing daily afternoon storm chances Tuesday onward. Although severe weather specifics remain a bit uncertain, current guidance continues to suggest there will be plenty of instability and shear for updrafts to work with. Expect additional details regarding next week`s storm potential in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Concerns...Winds shifting from southwest to northwest, eventually becoming northeasterly overnight. Winds return to southerly tomorrow afternoon. MVFR ceilings overnight. VFR conditions are ongoing across North and Central Texas with southwesterly winds across the region. An area of low pressure nearby will lead to northwesterly winds this evening. Winds will continue to turn and become northeasterly overnight. By tomorrow afternoon, expect southerly winds to return to the region. Cloud cover will return to the region overnight with MVFR overspreading all of North and Central Texas. Low clouds will continue through the morning, becoming VFR closer to noon. A few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, then again tomorrow afternoon, mainly east of D10. No thunderstorm mention was added to the TAF given the low probability of occurrence, however, it is something that will continue to be monitored closely in subsequent TAF issuance. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening across Northeast Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 90 69 91 / 10 20 20 10 Waco 69 90 69 90 / 10 10 20 10 Paris 62 84 65 83 / 30 20 70 20 Denton 62 90 67 91 / 10 20 20 10 McKinney 64 89 68 88 / 20 20 40 10 Dallas 67 92 69 92 / 10 20 20 10 Terrell 66 88 68 88 / 20 20 30 10 Corsicana 70 90 71 91 / 20 10 20 10 Temple 69 90 69 91 / 10 10 20 10 Mineral Wells 62 92 66 95 / 0 20 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez