Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
201 FXUS64 KFWD 030656 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1256 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will develop along and east of I-35 today. - A cold front moving across the region today will bring cooler temperatures for Wednesday with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. - Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected from Thursday through this weekend with highs in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Latest surface observations show a very mild morning across North and Central Texas with current temperatures in the upper 40s north to low 60s south amid mostly cloudy skies. These mild temps are thanks to strengthening WAA ahead of an approaching cold front currently stretched from south of Lubbock to north of OKC. This front will make slow but steady southward progress today, reaching the Red River around sunrise and exiting our cwa by late afternoon. Combination of strong WAA, increasing gulf moisture, and frontal focus/lift will allow for development of scattered showers along and east of I-35 today, especially in our East Texas counties. An isolated thunderstorm or two also remains possible this afternoon as MUCAPE rises to 300-400 J/Kg and mid level lapse rates steepen into the 7-8 C/km range. No strong or severe storms are anticipated, however, and rainfall totals look quite paltry at less than one quarter inch. Although highs will reach the 60s to near 70 today, a cooler post-frontal airmass will drop lows into the 30s to around 40 tonight. Wednesday will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today with highs only in the mid 50s to mid 60s, followed by lows dropping back into the 30s Wednesday night. A few isolated showers are also possible during the day on Wednesday across our northwest counties as a sharp upper trough moves overhead, but most areas will stay dry. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 00Z model suite continues to depict a very large upper ridge building from the western Gulf northward into western Canada from Thursday through the weekend into early next week. This pattern will bring us a lengthy period of dry weather and well-above normal temperatures, with highs in the 60s/70s and lows mainly in the 40s - which is around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Parts of our southwest counties could even reach the 80s over the weekend. By Monday and Tuesday of next week, 00Z GFS/ECMWF show an upper level low over northern Mexico ejecting across Texas while weakening, with slightly cooler temperatures and low rain chances possible. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 MVFR cigs have already arrived at ACT, and current VFR conditions at D10 airports are expected to become MVFR around 08-09Z as low cigs continue to spread northward. These MVFR cigs are anticipated to last through 18-20Z before drier air behind a fropa returns conditions to VFR. A few rain showers are possible east of airports today, but airports look to remain dry. South winds around 10 knots will continue through 17-19Z in D10 and around 20Z at ACT before fropa switches winds to northerly the remainder of the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 37 58 35 / 10 0 10 0 Waco 66 38 60 35 / 20 0 0 0 Paris 62 34 53 31 / 40 0 0 0 Denton 62 33 56 30 / 10 0 10 0 McKinney 62 35 55 31 / 20 0 10 0 Dallas 65 38 57 35 / 20 0 10 0 Terrell 65 36 56 32 / 40 0 0 0 Corsicana 67 38 60 36 / 50 0 0 0 Temple 67 38 61 33 / 20 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 65 33 60 31 / 0 0 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger