636
FXUS64 KFWD 302254
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
454 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 12 AM to 11 AM
  Saturday due to wind chills ranging from 0 to 15 degrees.

- Much colder temperatures and frigid wind chills are expected
  Saturday into Sunday.

- A warm up will occur Sunday through early next week, with rain
  chances returning to the region Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Late morning water vapor imagery shows a broad longwave trough
stretching from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast, with
shortwave energy embedded within the flow continuing to dig
southeastward across the Plains. At the surface, a sprawling high
pressure centered over the Upper Midwest is beginning to sag
southward and is expected to strengthen the pressure gradient
across the Southern Plains by this evening. Ahead of this,
afternoon temperatures will remain seasonably cool, generally in
the 40s to lower 50s with light northerly winds around 10 mph or
less.

Tonight, a reinforcing push of colder air will move in behind a
secondary cold front resulting in another night of widespread
freezing temperatures. This boundary is expected to reach North
Texas shortly after sunset, with a more pronounced increase in
north winds (up to 15-20 mph with gusts approaching 25 mph)
developing after 9 PM. The resulting cold air advection will drive
temperatures well into the teens north of the I-20 corridor and
into the low to mid 20s across Central Texas by sunrise Saturday.
The combination of cold temperatures and brisk winds will yield
wind chills ranging from near 0 up to around 10 degrees across
North Texas and 9 to 15 degrees farther south. A Cold Weather
Advisory remains in effect for the entire region from midnight
through Saturday morning amid these dangerously cold conditions.

Only a modest moderation of temperatures is expected during the
daytime hours on Saturday as surface high pressure slides
southeast into Oklahoma and weak height rises ensue aloft. Despite
increasing insolation, highs will once again remain below
seasonal norms (ranging from the low 30s to near 40 degrees) with
continued north/northeast flow. While weak perturbations in the NW
flow could induce areas of mid/high cloudiness at times, any
precipitation potential remains well displaced to the north during
this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

A fairly progressive and amplified pattern will persist into
early next week with broad troughing remaining entrenched over the
eastern half of the U.S. and a more zonal to northwesterly flow
regime extending across the Southern Plains. In the wake of
Saturday`s reinforcing cold push, quiet and dry weather will
continue through early next week. Surface high pressure will
slowly shift eastward, allowing low-level flow to gradually veer
to the south by Sunday. This will result in a modest warming trend
beginning Sunday, with highs returning to the 60s for most areas
by Monday afternoon.

Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement on a shortwave
digging through the Southwest before emerging over the Southern
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. In response, surface cyclogenesis
is expected across the Southern plains, allowing for a better
return of low-level moisture and increasing rain chances across
North and Central Texas beginning early Tuesday. The degree of
moisture return still appears modest given the recent cold/dry
pattern, but enough recovery looks likely to support at least
scattered showers, primarily across Central and East Texas Tuesday
and Tuesday night. While instability will be meager, some
embedded convection can`t be ruled out near and southeast of the
I-35 corridor. Severe storms are not expected at this time.

A cold front is expected to accompany or follow this system,
ushering in another round of cold and dry air for the latter half
of the week. Current guidance favors a return to subfreezing
temperatures by Wednesday night into Thursday morning across much
of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

A reinforcing shot of colder air will surge southward this evening
with gusty north winds and some scattered clouds. The front is
currently moving through central Oklahoma and should spread
through the D10 airspace around midnight. Light northerly winds
will increase to 15G25KT for much of the night before diminishing
during the morning hours on Saturday. VFR should prevail through
the period although there may be some SCT/BKN050 cigs late
tonight. Otherwise, VFR will prevail on Saturday with north winds
around 10 kt.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    19  34  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                25  37  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               15  32  20  46 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              14  32  19  53 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            16  32  20  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              20  35  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Terrell             18  34  20  51 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           23  37  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              24  40  20  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       18  36  20  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST
Saturday for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-
174-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...Dunn