Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
993 FXUS64 KFWD 221138 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 538 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog is expected to develop across portions of the area this morning and may be dense at times, with visibility reducing to a quarter of a mile or less for some areas. - Wintry precipitation is expected to begin as early as Friday afternoon and will continue through Sunday morning. Associated travel impacts will likely linger into at least Monday. - Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 5 to 10 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Extreme cold will become life threatening to people and animals, especially Saturday and Sunday nights. - Very cold temperatures will increase the risk of broken pipes and water damage due to a prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures late Friday through Tuesday. - Final preparations for the impending winter weather need to be completed today! && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Benign weather is expected through the short-term period as we await our impending winter weather slated to arrive on Friday. We`re starting to see patchy fog develop across the region, with this trend expected to continue through the morning. Most of the fog will likely be confined to Central Texas, but there will be a low potential for fog to develop across portions of North Texas as well. Additionally, dense fog will be possible at times, with visibility reducing to 1/4 mile or less for some areas. We`ll be monitoring trends through the morning in the event a Dense Fog Advisory is needed for portions of the area. Any fog should dissipate by mid to late morning, but we`ll likely remain socked in with low stratus for the remainder of the day. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Wintry precipitation and dangerous cold are expected Friday through early next week. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect Saturday through Monday morning. - What`s Changed? - Latest guidance has trended a bit later with the arrival of arctic air and onset of wintry precipitation. - Discussion - Widespread rain is expected to develop throughout the day Friday as isentropic ascent strengthens across the region with the arrival of a shortwave trough. The highly anticipated Arctic front will move through North Texas during the afternoon (a bit later than previously forecast), and Central Texas Friday evening/overnight. Temperatures will begin a steady decline behind the front, and as they fall to near or below freezing from north to south, a gradual transition to a sleet/freezing rain mix is expected to transpire. This transition will likely begin along the Red River around mid afternoon, the Metroplex/I-20 corridor late in the evening, and northern portions of Central Texas after midnight Friday night. It`s highly likely far Central Texas/the Brazos Valley will see a cold rain through Friday night, with a transition to a wintry mix likely not occurring until sometime Saturday. As additional shortwaves eject out ahead of their parent trough/upper low over the Baja Peninsula and northern Mexico, overrunning will continue to allow multiple rounds of widespread precipitation to develop and move across the region Saturday through Sunday morning. Temperatures will continue to drop for most areas on Saturday as the Arctic air deepens across the region. As this occurs, sleet will likely become the predominant precipitation type across portions of the forecast area (mainly North Texas), with a freezing rain/sleet mix likely to continue across Central Texas. Most of North Texas is expected to see a transition to a sleet/snow mix Saturday night, with a full transition to snow for areas near the Red River. Wintry precipitation will linger into Sunday but will gradually taper off from west to east throughout the day as the upper trough moves overhead. Very cold temperatures will continue Sunday with highs in the 20s areawide. Dangerous subzero wind chills are expected both Saturday night and Sunday night, dropping as low as 10 below zero at times. Cold temperatures will continue on Monday, with some locations remaining below freezing for another day, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor. Fortunately, clouds are expected to clear out Sunday night, bringing sunny skies back to the region on Monday. Temperatures will continue to moderate through the middle of next week, but cold mornings in the 20s will continue. - Expected Accumulations - Ice (Freezing Rain): - 0.10" to 0.50" on average, with high-end totals up to 0.75". - If a slower transition to mostly sleet occurs, ice accumulations could be higher. Snow/Sleet: - North Texas: 2" to 5" on average, with isolated 6" possible. Highest totals along and north of Highway 380. - Central Texas: 1/2" to 2" - These accumulations could increase if an earlier transition to sleet and/or snow occurs. - Impacts - Impacts to travel will likely begin late Friday afternoon or early evening for areas near the Red River, with conditions deteriorating from north to south with the transition to a wintry mix Friday night into Saturday. Travel impacts will peak Saturday and Sunday as multiple rounds of heavy wintry precipitation impact the region. Ice accumulations on trees and power lines will have the potential to cause power outages across the region. Impacts will likely linger through the Monday morning commute. Some improvement may occur on Monday as sunny skies return, but any liquid left on the ground Monday evening will refreeze Monday night into Tuesday morning. - What You Should Do - Finalize all of your winter preparations today. Consider delaying any weekend travel, and be prepared for impacts to continue through the Monday morning commute. Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest information. Wear multiple layers if you go outside this weekend. Check on any vulnerable family, friends, and neighbors. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Concerns...IFR/LIFR cigs/visbys this morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings develop again tonight. Widespread rain expected Friday, with wintry mix beginning Friday evening in D10. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will continue to develop across the region this morning. Intermittent LIFR ceilings/visbys will continue at KACT with fog occasionally dropping visibilities to ~1/2 SM. Latest guidance has backed off on visibility reductions in the Metroplex, so this has been removed in the latest TAFs. Latest guidance has also trended much more optimistic this afternoon and evening, with VFR conditions now expected to return. MVFR/IFR ceilings will redevelop again tonight around or after 06Z, with flying conditions expected to deteriorate Friday morning onward. Rain will begin to develop across the region mid to late Friday morning, becoming more widespread Friday afternoon just outside of the extended TAF period. A strong cold front will move through North Texas tomorrow afternoon and will bring a transition to wintry precipitation from north to south Friday evening across the Metroplex. Winds will vary from ENE to ESE today near 5 to 7 knots or less. Northeast winds around 10-15 knots are expected by midday Friday in D10. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 42 48 26 / 0 10 70 100 Waco 64 48 55 30 / 0 10 60 90 Paris 54 38 44 23 / 0 10 50 100 Denton 59 37 46 22 / 0 10 70 100 McKinney 58 40 46 25 / 0 10 70 100 Dallas 60 43 49 26 / 0 10 70 100 Terrell 59 42 48 27 / 0 10 60 90 Corsicana 64 48 54 31 / 0 10 50 90 Temple 66 49 58 32 / 0 10 50 90 Mineral Wells 61 40 48 23 / 0 10 80 100 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...Barnes