Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
114 FXUS64 KFWD 010611 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1211 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another cold night is expected with lows in the teens and low 20s areawide by early Sunday morning. - A warm up will occur Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, with low rain chances returning to areas east of the I-35 corridor on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Another cold night is in progress across North and Central TX with most locations already in the low to mid 20s. Temperatures shouldn`t drop too much farther as the center of a 1035 mb surface high will continue to shift eastward overnight allowing a light southerly wind to become established prior to sunrise. A weak upstream shortwave is also moving through the Southern Plains tonight and has resulted in some mid level cloud cover across the northeast half of the CWA. Some light radar returns are noted and this is likely some light snow flurries, but it`s unlikely any of this is making it to the ground given the very dry sub cloud layer. This activity will move east of the area overnight with clearing skies by morning. Southerly winds will return on Sunday with temperatures climbing back into the 50s which will be about 20 degrees warmer than Saturday`s highs. The warmup will continue into Monday as a weak mid level ridge slides through the Southern Plains. Highs on Monday should top out in the mid to upper 60s. A strong upper trough will begin to dig into the Central Plains on Monday with a surface low over the TX Panhandle deepening. This will gradually pull some moisture northward into North Texas, primarily east of I-35. This moisture should result in increasing cloud cover through the day and will occur ahead of an approaching cold front on Tuesday. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) The cold front will enter our northwest counties early Tuesday morning and we`ll likely see a few scattered warm advection showers across our eastern counties through the morning hours. Coverage will increase into the early afternoon as the front moves eastward, but the best moisture will quickly get pushed out of our area by evening. Coverage of showers will be highest across our southeast counties with areas farther to the north and west missing out on any rainfall potential with this system. Wednesday will be cooler with highs in the 50s and we`ll continue to monitor a low potential for temperatures to be considerably cooler than currently forecast. As the strong shortwave digs into the Southern Plains, very strong synoptic forcing for ascent will overspread North Texas through the day Wednesday. Model guidance has come in a little less aggressive with moisture, which means despite the strong lift, we won`t likely see any extensive clouds or precipitation. But, if there is a little more moisture, we could quickly go from mostly sunny skies to overcast conditions which would result in a significant deviation in temperatures from the current forecast. We`ll likely have a little better handle on this potential in the next 24-48 hours. Otherwise, mid level ridging will quickly build in behind the departing shortwave promoting a warming trend through the end of the week. Highs will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday and Saturday. Dunn && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Light north winds will gradually become southerly overnight as high pressure moves off to the east. South-southwest winds 10 to 15 kt and VFR will prevail on Sunday with no significant aviation concerns expected. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 33 23 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 37 24 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 31 21 48 31 / 0 10 0 0 Denton 32 18 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 31 21 52 33 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 33 24 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 33 21 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 36 24 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 39 21 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 35 21 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$