Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
562 FXUS64 KFWD 272327 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 527 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above-average and near-record warm temperatures will continue today and Sunday. - A strong cold front Sunday afternoon and evening will bring gusty north winds up to 50 mph, along with tumbling temperatures into the 30s. - Actual temperatures and wind chill values will provide a shock to the system Monday through Tuesday. Outdoor pipes may need to be protected along the Red River and northwest of the DFW Metroplex Monday night into Tuesday morning when temperatures will fall below 25 degrees for several hours. - Temperatures will steadily warm back to near or above normal through the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1203 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Warm conditions will occur today with afternoon highs ranging from around 80 degrees in our east and southeast, to the mid-upper 80s in our west and northwest. DFW is still forecasted to be very near today`s record high temperature of 82 degrees, but Waco may struggle to reach their record high of 85 degrees due to persistent cloud cover in that area at midday. However, both sites may tie or set new record high minimums tonight. Tonight will be warm and humid again, with maybe some patchy light fog, but a strong cold front arrives Sunday afternoon and evening bringing a drastic change to the weather. The cold front will be very noticeable as it moves across the region Sunday afternoon and evening with very strong winds and tumbling temperatures. Winds through the night will be sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts between 40-50 mph. These speeds meet Wind Advisory criteria, and the Advisory will likely be issued overnight or maybe this evening. All outdoor decorations and lightweight objects will need to be secured, and if Sunday night is normally when you set out trash and recycling cans, it would be best to wait until Monday morning if possible. Drastically colder temperatures will accompany the front and temperatures will tumble from values in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Sunday afternoon into the 30s Sunday night-Monday morning. However, with the strong wind, the wind chill overnight and early Monday morning will make it feel like it`s in the upper 10s and 20s. As the front moves through on Sunday, there is a low chance for showers east of I-35 in the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall amounts will only total a few hundredths of an inch where showers do occur. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1203 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Monday will be a day to bundle up if you are heading out! As mentioned above, Monday morning will start out very chilly with temperatures in the 30s but wind chills in the upper 10s and 20s. As cold air continues to filter into the region on Monday, high temperatures will only be in the 40s. Breezy winds will continue during the day on Monday at speeds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, and thus the wind chill during the day on Monday will make it feel several degrees colder than the actual temperature. The coldest night of the week will be Monday night-Tuesday morning with overnight lows ranging from the lower 20s in the north to the lower 30s in the south. Outdoor exposed pipes will need to be covered in areas north of I-30/20 where temperatures will spend several hours in the 20s overnight. Ensembles are in good agreement on temperatures falling into the lower 20s, especially along the Red River and in our northwest where there is around a 50% probability of temperatures below 25 degrees. The remainder of the week will exhibit a warming trend due to weak upper level ridging and then zonal flow; however, temperatures will still be cooler than this past week. A fast moving shortwave may bring a little bit of rain to areas north of I-30/20 during New Years Eve Day, but no impacts are expected at this time. A few weather models try to output a light wintry mix Wednesday morning near the Red River, but the forecast calls for temperatures near or above freezing and have left any mention of precipitation in liquid form. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 506 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 VFR prevails across the region this evening but changes are on the way. We`ll see an increase in high cloud cover through the late evening but a surge of low level moisture northward ahead of a cold front will lead to widespread MVFR stratus late tonight through midday Sunday. Southerly flow around 15 kt will gradually become more southwest through the late morning hours on Sunday ahead of the front. Actual frontal passage timing should be around 20-22Z in the Metroplex with a wind shift to the north and an abrupt increase in wind speeds. North-northwest winds 25G40KT can be expected through the late afternoon and early evening before diminishing a bit overnight Sunday night. Mid and high cloud cover will linger through the period. Any precipitation chances with this front should remain mainly east of the major airports. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 79 35 47 / 0 10 0 0 Waco 66 78 38 47 / 0 10 10 0 Paris 64 76 32 43 / 0 20 10 0 Denton 63 78 30 46 / 0 10 0 0 McKinney 64 78 32 46 / 0 10 10 0 Dallas 65 80 36 47 / 0 10 10 0 Terrell 65 78 33 46 / 0 20 10 0 Corsicana 67 79 36 48 / 0 20 20 0 Temple 65 79 36 48 / 0 10 10 0 Mineral Wells 62 79 30 48 / 0 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$