998
FXUS63 KGLD 171954
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1254 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue into the mid-week.

- Precipitation chances continue for Thursday into Friday. 30%
  chance for a dusting of snow over western part of the forecast
  area.

- Another storm system moving onto the Plains early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1252 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Model data is looking a bit more promising for the potential of
light rain over far northern Yuma and Dundy counties. The
typically "wet" short term ensemble model has extended the low
chances for rainfall south up against Yuma and Dundy counties
with the latest run, and neighboring offices have extended low
chances to the south to these counties as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1205 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over Southern Wyoming.
To the south a clear sky due to drier air and subsidence was seen
over the forecast area. Mid morning a cold front had progressed
nearly all the way east across the forecast area.  Behind the front
winds had turned to the west and become breezy.

For the rest of today the area of breezy winds seems to be shifted
further south than what was shown earlier with the model data. Winds
at Cheyenne Wells, Tribune, and Leoti are lower than what was
anticipated by this time of the day.  However there is a small area
of breezy winds moving east across NW KS; currently near the Highway
25 corridor following the wind shift to the north.  These winds will
continue to slide east through the day, with winds becoming light
before evening.

Tonight there may be some light rain moving toward Yuma County from
the north; wrap around precipitation on the backside of the upper
level low.  Neighboring offices have no precipitation forecast near
Yuma County, and the saturated layer to work with does not lend
confidence to forming precipitation.  Even the usually "wet" short
term ensemble model keeps any rainfall north of Yuma County.  At
this point will leave out a mention of precipitation. Otherwise a
reinforcing round of cold air moves in from the northwest. Winds
will turn to the northwest behind the secondary cold front. The
lowest few hundred feet of the soundings have lower dew point
depressions overnight with the cold air advection. However, as prior
shift stated, do not believe there will be fog due to the dew point
depression still being too large for fog.

Tuesday an upper level short wave ridge will move over the forecast
area.  This will allow some warm air advection to move in as the
cooler air mass shifts east of the forecast area.  Light northwest
winds will turn to the south during the afternoon as a surface high
pressure moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Wednesday and Wednesday night the upper level ridge over the Central
Plains will expand between the departing upper level low that was
over Wyoming today, and the deepening upper level low over Southern
California. This will allow seasonal temperatures for the forecast
area, and light winds.

Thursday through Friday the upper level low is forecast to move
easterly over the Desert Southwest.  There is model disagreement
regarding how deep the low will be over the Desert Southwest, which
will affect how quickly the low moves to the east.  Overall models
shift the low eastward onto the Plains.  However the low is forecast
to fill as it moves onto the Plains.  Seeing the low pressure that
is suppose to bring precipitation start to weaken as it moves over
the forecast area does raise doubts that we will see precipitation.
Latest model ensemble probabilities favor the southern half of the
forecast area with the best chance for precipitation.  Based on the
orientation of the precipitation chances, and the surface/low level
winds, am wondering if a corridor of precipitation will form along a
frontal boundary/convergence area extending west to east somewhere
over the forecast area.  Where this corridor forms will be
determined by the track of the weakening low pressure system.  Based
on model ensemble probabilities there is a 30% chance for a dusting
of snow in East Central CO, that may extent as far east as Highway
27. The track of this storm system is not favorable for pulling in
enough cold air to generate much, if any, snowfall. Models typically
track closed lows like this too fast, so would not be surprised if
the timing for the better rainfall chances shifts more into Friday.

Saturday through Sunday an upper level short wave ridge moves in
behind the departing/weakening storm system.  The forecast continues
to be dry with seasonal temperatures.

Early next week another storm system moves onto the Plains.  This
storm system should be stronger than the prior one.  Since it will
likely be deeper/stronger than the last storm system, am skeptical
of how quickly it will move onto the Plains.  There is quite a bit
of model variability with the track of this system, as expected at
this time range.  The current model ensemble favors precipitation
remaining east and southeast of the forecast area.  Will see if this
trend continues in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1029 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Winds will be strongest
for the next two to three hours then decline. Winds will become
light before 0z then be variable. A wind shift will happen
tonight as a reinforcing shot of cold air moves in from the
northwest. Behind the secondary cold front winds will turn to
the northwest. There may be low level wind shear after 6z once
the front moves through, which may last well into the morning.
Ceilings below VFR should remain north of KMCK through the TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL