843
FXUS63 KGLD 140805
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
105 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through the weekend.

- Record or near-record high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s
  expected today. Cooler (albeit still above-average) highs in
  the lower 70s (Sat) and mid-upper 60s (Sun).

- Multiple chances at precipitation next week. Could see our
  first measurable snow in the mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1209 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Synoptic Overview: An upper level ridge will persist over the
central Rockies and adjoining High Plains (albeit somewhat
flattened on Sat). A longwave trough presently moving ashore the
Pacific Coast will fracture over the Intermountain West
(today).. the northern portion of which will manifest as a less-
amplified progressive trough that quickly traverses the
northern Rockies (today), Northern Plains (tonight) and Upper
Great Lakes (Sat).. the southern portion of which will evolve
into a cut-off low that stalls in vicinity of the southern
Pacific Coast (today-tonight) prior to meandering ashore
central- southern California (Sat night) and lifting N-NNE into
the Great Basin (early Sun).

Today-Tonight: With little change in the synoptic pattern
during the past 24-hr, sensible weather conditions will be
analogous to Thu.. albeit slightly warmer with light SW winds.
Expect mostly clear skies and near-record to record high
temperatures in the upper 70`s to lower 80`s.. followed by
increasing upper level cloud cover and above-average lows in the
40`s. For reference, average highs this time of year are in the
mid 50`s and average lows are in the mid-upper 20`s.

Sat-Sat night: Synoptic subsidence in the wake of an upper
level trough.. the northern/progressive portion of the fractured
longwave trough traversing the Northern Plains (tonight) and
Upper Midwest (Sat morning).. will drive modest (~1015 mb)
surface high pressure southward into the Central Plains, the
leading edge of which will manifest as a northerly wind shift
and effective cold frontal passage ~12-18 UTC Saturday morning.
A period of breezy (~20-30 mph) north winds may follow the
frontal passage.. during the late morning and early afternoon..
before weakening and veering to the NNE-NE during the mid-late
afternoon. Expect highs ~10F cooler than today (albeit still
well-above average).. in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s with lows
in the mid 30`s to lower 40`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

The long-term will start off with a 500mb ridge over the
southern CONUS, extending over the CWA. A low will be moving
over the western CONUS, slowly pushing itself and the ridge to
the east. Sunday, we will see the ridge axis move over the CWA,
keeping our sky clear for most of the day, but an 850 mb high
will descend from the Northern Plains. This will wrap in cooler
air, keeping temperatures capped in the mid to upper 60s. Clouds
will move in overnight, keeping lows above freezing.

Late Sunday night into Monday morning, the aforementioned low
pressure system will begin impacting the CWA. There is a 20-40%
chance of showers Monday with the low`s passage. The northern
CWA will have a better chance at seeing precipitation. The main
limiting factor for precipitation will be moisture. QPF will
likely be less than 0.1 inch near Yuma, CO, decreasing to the
south-southeast. Also, if precipitation occurs, there`s a ~5%
some of it will fall as snow along and north of US 34.

Low temperatures behind the cold front look to generally remain
around freezing for the rest of the long-term. Highs are
currently forecast to bounce around the 50s for the rest of the
long-term, but some 40s and low 60s will be possible. There will
also be a persistent chance of patchy fog each morning from
Monday through Friday.

Tuesday into Wednesday, as the early low moves off to the east,
a ridge will build back into the region. However, late
Wednesday into Thursday, guidance is showing a fairly strong low
coming up from the southwestern CONUS and impacting the CWA.
Timing and the path for this low is very uncertain, considering
24 hours ago this low was projected to impact the CWA head-on on
Wednesday. As long as the low takes a path within about 200
miles of the CWA, we can expect precipitation and cooler
temperatures. There is a 10-15% chance this will bring our first
measurable snowfall (<3 inches) to the CWA. This leaves a
60-70% chance precipitation will fall as rain, and a 20-30%
chance this system will not bring any precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions and light (~5-12 knot) WSW to SSW winds will
prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. Clear skies
will give way to increasing upper level cloud cover (cirrus
at or above ~20,000 ft AGL) this evening. Winds will shift to
the NNW or N and increase to 10-15 knots in assoc/w an effective
cold frontal passage around sunrise Saturday morning.. at/near
the end of the 12Z TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1050 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Record high temperatures are in jeopardy across portions of the
area on Friday November 14. Record highs and current forecast
highs for the aforementioned dates are listed below (in
Fahrenheit).

Goodland:   75 in 1990... current forecast 81
Burlington: 78 in 2007... current forecast 80
Hill City:  83 in 1999... current forecast 81
McCook:     78 in 1990... current forecast 78

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent
CLIMATE...Vincent