571
FXUS63 KGLD 302137
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
337 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Severe weather threat continues with afternoon and evening
  storms today and Monday. 50-70 MPH winds are the main hazards,
  but 1-2 inch hail is also possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 328 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Current mid-level water vapor and surface analysis shows our region
under a weak upper-level ridge accompanied by a surface low in north-
central Kansas. The few lingering clouds we had this morning cleared
out quickly setting the stage for another day of hot
temperatures and chances for afternoon/evening storms. High
temperatures have already reached the 90s for the majority of
the county warning area (CWA) and are expected to climb to the
high 90s for the eastern CWA. Winds will be light and variable
providing little relief from the hot temperatures.

Moving on to our storm chances for the afternoon/evening, storms are
expected to initiate off the Front Range and traverse east/northeast
through the CWA. HREF paintballs are showing storms moving into our
area between 23Z and 1Z. Main concerns with any storms will be
strong winds around 50 to 60 mph and small hail based on inverted V
model soundings throughout the CWA. Overall, the environment is
marginally unstable with around 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, mid-
level lapse rates around 7 C/km and effective shear around 40-45
knots. Storm motions are forecast to be around 20 knots. These
speeds typically do not support flash flooding, but it is something
to monitor for with any training storms.

Large hail could occur with stronger storms if they
are able to really tap into the instability in the environment.
Instability is the greatest in the far eastern CWA, so storms
that make it that far and discrete cells will be the ones to
monitor for large hail (~1+ inch) potential. Storms will likely
exit the area by 6Z, but some models are showing scattered
showers lingering overnight into Monday morning.

Another thing to mention is that the NSSL is showing a large
line of storms congeal together by the Colorado/Kansas border
and traverse east through the CWA. This scenario could
potentially cause strong straight line winds up to 75 mph ahead
of the system. This model typically overdoes convection, so low
confidence (<5%) that this scenario would occur.

Conditions are forecast to cool slightly due to a cold front moving
in from the north Monday morning. High temperatures are forecast in
the 80s to 90s. We are forecast to remain under an upper-level ridge
with a surface low setting up in northwest Kansas. This will give us
continued storm chances for the afternoon and evening hours. Storms
are forecast to initiate around the Raton Basin in southeast
Colorado and track northeast into the CWA sometime between 23Z and
1Z. Instability is overall greater compared to Sunday due to
slightly higher CAPE and higher mid-level lapse rates, so both
strong winds and large hail are on the table for hazards. Storms are
expected to exit the CWA from the north by 12Z Tuesday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Tuesday through Thursday, not much change in the upper pattern is
forecast with the upper ridge over the Southeastern United States
with an upper trough over the Northwest United States. This is
forecast to keep the air mass roughly the same each day and allow
for highs in the 90s and low 100s. The warmer temperatures favor
areas that are closer to Central Kansas. Winds should remain around
5-15 mph and vary in direction each day as broad low pressure is
expected to linger over much of the Plains. With the upper level
southwest flow and upstream trough, mid to high level moisture is
forecast to continue streaming into the area and bring in high level
cloud cover. A few shortwaves should also move through and help
spark storm development west of the area. With the low levels
forecast to be a bit on the dry side, storms will likely struggle to
make it to the area in the absence of outflows or a low level jet.
Still, each day will give the area a chance for storms and maybe
even some severe weather.

Going into the weekend, confidence has increased a bit more on the
ridge amplifying over the Plains. This is keeping the pattern
roughly the same and conditions somewhat similar. Temperatures may
be able to warm into the 100s for most of the area if the ridge axis
shifts over the area. Otherwise, we should keep the light winds and
daily chances for storms.

There is still a 25% though that the upper trough pushes east over
the weekend instead. In this case, Friday/Saturday would be hot and
have better chances for storms as the trough pushes a more pronounce
system through the area. The rest of the weekend would then probably
be cooler with highs maybe in the 80s. Storm chances would also
probably be a bit lower on Sunday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast over the area
with clouds generally above 10000ft. Winds near the surface
should remain around 5-8kts and generally be from the northwest.
However, with a surface low pressure system over the area, the
winds will likely vary in direction at times. Storms are
possible between 00-12Z, but more likely around 05-09Z. If they
move through, be alert for wind gusts in the 40-60 kts range and
maybe hail around an inch or two.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK/Rhoades
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK