072
FXUS63 KGLD 111056
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
356 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry forecast through the week until next weekend.

- Gradual warming temperature trend through the work week. Near
  record to record highs possible Thursday and Friday.

- Low relative humidity Tuesday and Friday with breezy winds
  leading to some fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1251 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Cirrus is ongoing across most of the area along with
southwesterly winds helping keep the forecast area above
freezing to well above freezing across the west as a tightening
pressure gradient ahead of a shortwave is keeping winds breezier
and temperatures in the 40s. As this shortwave moves through
the 850mb wind field will increase but we likely won`t notice
any evidence of this until the nocturnal inversion breaks
between 9-10pm MT. As this occurs winds will rapidly increase to
20-30 mph sustained gusting 40-45 mph for 1-2 hours before
waning during the early afternoon hours. There does continue to
remain some variables for the afternoon however which will be
key to our fire weather threat for the day. 1) The big one is
how long will the wind gusts last. Most guidance has the winds
decreasing during the afternoon as the 850mb jet decreases
behind the shortwave. The exception is the GFS which keeps the
jet lingering for an additional 1-2 hours which would increase
the chances for southwestern portions of the area to see 3+
hours of critical fire weather conditions. All other guidance
including the mean ensembles of the GEFS, REFS and HREF all show
the wind gust potential declining after 1pm MT. 2) The other
factor is how warm will temperatures get. Northwest winds which
is what will occur with the shortwave actually do lead to a
downsloping warming component, based on some in office
climatological studies, to the area which has led me to keep
temperatures on the warmer end of guidance in the low to mid
70s. However, cirrus is forecast to linger through the day and
may actually mitigate how warm temperatures get which would have
an effect on the humidity values and actually increase them
some. Dew points are also forecast to rise through the afternoon
as well as upstream moisture from the northern Rockies gets
caught in the northwest flow in wake of the shortwave. With all
of this said am opting to hold off on any Red Flag Warnings for
the day due to lack of confidence in 3+ hours (20-30%) of
critical fire weather conditions.

Above normal temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s are
forecast to continue into Wednesday as ridging amplifies across
the western CONUS. Winds have increased some as the 850mb jet
has strengthened across the area due to a developing surface
trough. Humidity values are however forecast to remain above 20%
keeping fire weather conditions at bay. Upper level cirrus is
forecast to continue to stream into the area as some moisture
gets caught aloft in the northwesterly flow from the Pacific
northwest.

The axis of the ridge is forecast to be across the area
Thursday as we will be in between weather systems. Due to the
axis of the ridge being over the area winds are forecast to be
lighter and more variable through the day with mainly sunny
skies although some mountain cirrus may move across the are
during the afternoon hours. High temperatures are forecast to be
solidly in the low to mid 70s across the area as well with near
record highs possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Friday: An upper level ridge over the central CONUS will begin
to retreat east toward the Mississippi River Valley.. as an
amplifying upper level trough moving ashore the Pacific Coast
(Thu) progresses eastward across the Intermountain West (Fri).
Ridging aloft and modest southerly low-level flow on the eastern
periphery of a persistent surface trough in the lee of the
Rockies will foster dry conditions and well-above average highs
in the lower-mid 70`s. Strengthening S-SW low-level flow on the
eastern periphery of a broad surface to 850 mb trough in the lee
of the central Rockies may foster breezy (~15-25 mph) S to SW
winds and adverse fire weather conditions across portions of the
area on Friday, depending on whether or not (and if so, to what
extent) increasing upper level cloud cover (orographically
enhanced cirrus, in particular) impacts diurnal heating and
vertical mixing.

Saturday-Monday: Below average forecast confidence*. Current
(00 UTC 11/11) operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to
indicate that the longwave trough moving ashore the Pacific
Coast (Thu) will fracture over the Intermountain West (Fri-Fri
night).. the northern portion of which will manifest as a less-
amplified progressive trough that quickly traverses the northern
CONUS, and.. the southern portion of which will evolve into a
cut-off low that lingers over the Desert Southwest and 4-Corners
(Sat-Sun) prior to progressing E-ENE across the Central and
Southern Plains Sunday night and Monday.. a notable difference
from 00 UTC 11/10 (yesterday`s) GFS/ECMWF operational guidance..
which indicated a progressive closed low that quickly traversed
the Desert Southwest (Sat), Southern Plains (Sat night) and
Lower Mississippi River Valley (Sun). A perfect prog of current
(00 UTC 11/11) operational guidance would suggest dry conditions
and above-average temps (Sat) and near-average temps and
increasing cloud cover (Sun), followed by overcast skies, rain
and below-average temperatures (Mon). The `slower, wetter, cut-
off low` scenario (depicted by current guidance) places a few
constraints on sensible weather conditions.. precipitation type,
in particular. In such a scenario, the northern portion of the
fractured longwave trough (the less-amplified, progressive
trough traversing the northern CONUS).. and associated Canadian
airmass spilling southward into the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest.. would outpace the southern portion of the fractured
longwave trough (closed low progressing E-ENE from the Desert
Southwest to the Central/Southern Plains) to such an extent that
any precip attendant the belated closed low (Sun night- Mon)
would occur in the presence of a well above-freezing (850 mb T
5-10C, surface T 40-50F) and increasingly saturated airmass, an
airmass unsupportive of winter weather in all but one, very
specific circumstance -- a localized, rate-driven transition
from rain to wet snow that could only occur in the -presence- of
persistent heavy precipitation and -absence- of low-level
horizontal thermal advection (e.g. on the N-NW periphery of the
low). Given the complex nature of the synoptic pattern and
distant forecast range (132-168 hours out), it would be unwise
to take any model solution at face value. Broadly speaking, an
approaching longwave trough in an amplified synoptic pattern
suggests an above-average potential for active weather (in some
form or another).

*Forecast confidence typically decreases with range. `Below
average`, in this context, is intended to communicate a further
reduction in confidence associated with /inherent to/ increased
pattern complexity.. e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off
waves, multibranched jet/wave interactions and potentially
significant forms of constructive/destructive interference,
among others.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions remain forecast for each terminal. High clouds
are forecast to continue into the early to mid afternoon. A
shortwave moving towards the area is anticipated to increase
the winds just above the nocturnal inversion for GLD leading to
LLWS. As the inversion breaks winds will increase quickly with a
period of 30-35 knot gusts possible for GLD before waning as
the afternoon goes on. MCK won`t see as strong of gusts but some
around 20 knots is possible due to the proximity of the jet.
Winds are then forecast to become light towards sunset and
eventually becoming mainly variable overnight and into
Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1251 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

A shortwave moving in from the northwest will be the catalyst
for a period of breezy to gusty winds as the nocturnal inversion
breaks this morning around 9-10am MT. Sustained winds of 20-30
mph and wind gusts around 40 mph are forecast through 12p-1pm MT
for portions of Sherman, Kit Carson, Wallace, Cheyenne (CO),
Greeley and Wichita counties. Humidity is forecast to fall as
well into the mid/upper teens to low 20s as a period of elevated
to briefly critical fire weather conditions ensues between
10am-1pm MT. The tricky part of this forecast is how long will
the wind gusts of 25 mph continue as winds are forecast to
weaken as the day goes on along with rising dew points through
the afternoon. Confidence in 1- 2 hours of critical conditions
is around 50-60% with 3+ hours around 20-30% with the highest
potential being western Kit Carson, Cheyenne (CO), Wallace and
Greeley counties. An opting to hold off on a Red Flag Warning
due to the continued low confidence in the time portion of the
Red Flag Warning criteria. Use caution with any activity that
involves sparks this morning and early afternoon as 10 hour
fuels remain near 10% according to the Kansas Mesonet. GFDI
(Grassland Fire Danger Index) values are also forecast to be in
the Very High range supporting the potential for some fire
spread if one were to start.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1251 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Record high temperatures may be in jeopardy across portions of
the area on Nov 13-14. Record highs and current forecast highs
for the aforementioned dates are listed below (in Fahrenheit).

----------------------
THURSDAY NOVEMBER 13
----------------------
Goodland:    80 in 2007... current forecast 75
Burlington:  79 in 2007... current forecast 75
Hill City:   83 in 1999... current forecast 71
McCook:      82 in 1999... current forecast 71

----------------------
FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14
----------------------
Goodland:    75 in 1990... current forecast 75
Burlington:  78 in 2007... current forecast 74
Hill City:   83 in 1999... current forecast 72
McCook:      78 in 1990... current forecast 71

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg
CLIMATE...Trigg