834
FXUS63 KGLD 050630
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1230 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog may be possible across northeastern portions of the
  area through mid morning Friday.

- A few severe storms capable of producing large hail, damaging
  winds a brief tornado are possible Friday afternoon, mainly
  in northwest KS and southwest NE between ~2-8 pm MDT.

- Increasing signal for above normal temperatures this weekend
  and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1229 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

NW mid level flow is in place across the area currently bringing
some scattered cloud cover mainly along and north of Interstate
70. A slim increase in mid level moisture is seen across the
north, a surface low is seen currently across the Nebraska
Panhandle which may support showers and perhaps an isolated
storm. Some fog is forecast to develop overnight across
Hitchcock, Red Willow, Decatur, Norton and possibly Graham
counties as easterly winds are forecast to be in place and
remaining light. With the recent rainfall across this area and
the light upslope winds, this seems like a decent setup for some
dense fog potential with a large surface to 1km mixing ratio
difference in place. Any fog is forecast to last through around
9am central time Friday morning.

Friday, a weak cold front is forecast to move through western
portions of the area before stalling out between Highway 25 and
Highway 83. A period of low stratus is possible as well with the
front along with a 5-10% chance of some drizzle associated with it
as some very weak omega is seen in the low levels.  Winds behind the
front are forecast to be from the north around 10-15 mph versus
ahead of the front where winds are forecast to remain from the
southwest at 15-20 mph. High temperatures across the area
are forecast in the upper 80s across the west behind the front
and to the low/mid 90s ahead of the front.

The positioning of the front is also important for the location of
storms as well for the afternoon. Overall decent signal in at least
a few showers and storms developing along it. The front is forecast
to remain fairly stationary through the afternoon hours as it is
forecast to be the focal point for convection. As storms develop
along the boundary there is the concern for a brief landspout due to
steep low level lapse rates and sufficient surface based CAPE.
Critical angles are also in the 60-90 degree range which
suggests that surface based vorticity would be favored as well
with any any updrafts that can form. The limiting factor to be
for landspouts is the overall weak surface flow that may limit
any formation. 21Z RAP wind field as suggested that a potential
meso-low may be in place along the boundary as well which could
potentially aid the landspout development. Current thinking is
that storms along the boundary will be pulsey in nature but if
one were to wander off of the boundary to the east-southeast
which is the right mover motion then the threat for hail up to
two inches would increase. The positive is that with a lack of
strong synoptic support should any right movers occur they
should be relatively short lived. The other factor to keep an
eye on especially with the storms along the boundary as they
enter their dissipation stage is the threat for wet microbursts
with guidance suggesting a microburst composite around 6 along
with 0-3km max theta e differences significantly greater than
25C and high DCAPE in excess of 1000 j/kg and PWATS in excess of
1.2 inches. Should any strong enough downbursts occur then we
will need to watch for some blowing dust potential as well with
any westward moving outflows as mixing heights are forecast to
be in the 4500-6500 foot range. The important thing to note as
well is that with a weak mean wind and a slow nearly stationary
right mover motion any storms will move very slowly and lead to
some localized flooding concerns. Storms could start as early as
2pm mountain time but only last through around 7- 8pm mountain
time as we lose our diurnal heating. Overnight some additional
showers may develop due to some weak isentropic ascent but
overall confidence in this fairly low at this time.

Saturday, troughing is forecast to be in place across the western
CONUS. An overall fairly tranquil day is forecast to occur but warm
as high temperatures are currently forecast to warm into the
90s across the area. During the afternoon will need to keep an
eye on some spotty afternoon showers and storms with the only
obvious forcing being convective temperatures being breached.
Any storms that do manage to develop are anticipated to be
fairly short lived with very weak flow throughout the majority
of the atmospheric profile. Other showers and storms may occur
across eastern Colorado as a weak low pressure system is
forecast to develop but currently not anticipating any severe
weather with this activity at this time. Some at least elevated
fire weather potential may be possible across Yuma county
Saturday afternoon as well with a stout 850mb jet in place. GFS
and ECMWF both suggest drier mixing layer dew points in the mid
to upper 30s which would support humidity falling below 15%. The
caveat to fire weather concerns is that the NAM continues to
keep an axis of higher moisture across the area which would
eliminate any fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Sunday, our county warning area (CWA) will remain in a broad
southwest upper-level flow aloft downstream of a low pressure system
in the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s.
Skies will be mostly clear until the evening when we see a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs)
generally range around 30% for the northern CWA. Severe storms are
possible as there are around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE present over the
CWA, but shear will be the limiting factor for storms. Forecast
soundings indicate around 20 knots of shear. Should storms develop,
small hail and strong winds associated with collapsing thunderstorms
are the primary hazards.

Storm chances continue Sunday evening through Monday for the area
with PoPs from 20-40%, increasing from north to south. The
environment appears more supportive of severe storm development. Our
region is in a strong southwest upper-level flow with a weak jet
streak around 70 knots over the region. The environment is still
moderately unstable with around 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE, but again,
shear is the limiting factor with model soundings showing 20-40
knots of shear. Hazards are similar to Sunday with small hail and
strong winds as the primary concerns, but some stronger storms could
produce large hail. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s, but
if the region sees widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday,
increased cloud cover could lower temperatures and decrease storm
chances for Monday.

The remainder of the extended forecast period is shaping up to be
hot, windy, and dry with above average temperatures, strong winds
and low relative humidity (RH) values forecast. Tuesday through
Thursday, high temperatures are forecast in the 90s to 100s with
wind gusts from 25-40 mph possible. RH values are expected to fall
in the low teens to 20s, decreasing from east to west. RH values may
trend lower than currently forecast due to persistent southwest
upper-level flow and south-southwest winds promoting downslope
warming and mixing. This could increase temperatures and winds as
well. These conditions will support critical fire weather conditions
Tuesday through Thursday, mainly in the afternoon hours when RH
values are the lowest. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values of
60 to 100+ are forecast, with the highest being across the western
CWA. Any fires that develop may spread rapidly and become difficult
to control.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions are currently ongoing for each terminal as a low
low level jet brings some LLWS for each terminal. Watching the
potential for stratus and fog impacting the MCK terminal
starting around 09Z. There is the potential for dense fog as
well through 15Z Friday. I opted to go IFR instead of Airport
Min due to showers and storms across the Nebraska Panhandle
which could interfere with the fog and stratus potential. If
confidence does increase in lower visibilities and cigs then an
AMD may be needed. GLD is currently forecast to remain VFR. A
weak cold front is forecast to shift winds at GLD to the north
around 15Z and MCK a little after. Am also watching the
potential for some storms near MCK Friday afternoon but
confidence is not high enough for impacts to the terminal to
include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Trigg