691
FXUS63 KGLD 160846
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
146 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist
  through the beginning of the work week.

- An active/unsettled weather pattern will return to the region
  by the end of the work week (Thu-Fri), when a complex storm
  system may bring precipitation to portions of the area
  possibly including a 15% chance for snow for some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Synoptic Overview: A cut-off low meandering ashore southern
California early this morning will undergo a complex evolution
over the Great Basin today. While prior (00Z 11/15) guidance
suggested that the cut-off low may split into two distinct
features, current (00Z 11/16) guidance suggests that the cut-off
low will largely remain intact (a single entity) as it slowly/
gradually becomes progressive and tracks northeastward into
southern Nevada (this afternoon), Utah (this evening), southern
Wyoming (tonight) and the Nebraska Panhandle (Mon morning)..
then eastward across Nebraska (along/north of I-80) Mon-Mon
night.

Today-Tonight: A pronounced upper level ridge over the Rockies
and High Plains (today) will begin to erode tonight.. as the
aforementioned upper low progresses northeastward from UT into
northwest CO and southern WY. A low-level southerly return flow
regime will develop in the lee of the central Rockies today.. as
surface high pressure over the Dakotas (and an inverted surface
ridge extending southward into the Central Plains) shifts east
toward the MS River Valley and a pronounced surface trough
develops in the lee of the Rockies. Expect clear skies and
breezy (15-25 mph) SSE winds with highs similar-to, albeit a few
degrees cooler than, Saturday. A modest lee cyclone will
develop in CO tonight.. as the aforementioned upper low
progresses from northwest CO into southern WY. Strengthening
southerly flow / warm advection on the eastern periphery of the
developing lee cyclone in CO will advect a plume of low-level
moisture (850 mb dewpoints ~10C) from the Lower MS River Valley
into OK and central KS after midnight (06-12Z Mon).. when
forecast soundings suggest a brief potential for stratus
development in far eastern portions of the Goodland county
warning area (Graham, Norton, Red Willow counties) prior to
sunrise. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies with overnight
(Monday morning) lows several degrees warmer than this morning..
in the upper 30`s to mid 40`s.

Mon-Mon night: South winds will shift to the W and NW during
the late morning (west) and afternoon (east).. as the
aforementioned lee cyclone (accompanying the eastward-advancing
upper low in Nebraska) tracks east across the Tri-State area.
Locations along/north of I-70 could see a period of breezy
(20-30 mph G 40 mph) W-WNW winds during the mid-late afternoon..
depending on the precise evolution of the upper low, 850 mb
height/wind fields and whether or not (and if so, to what
extent) cloud cover may affect diurnal heating/mixing in
northern portions of the area. Expect highs in the lower-mid
60`s (north) to upper 60`s (south) and overnight (Tuesday
morning) lows in the 30`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1259 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Starting the extended period Tuesday, a departing low pressure
system to the east is forecast to continue to leave some
residual moisture in the area resulting in partly to mostly
cloudy skies across the area. May need to keep an eye on fog or
stratus potential that morning and possibly through the
afternoon as well due to the northeasterly winds and moisture
advection. High temperatures for the day are forecast in the
upper 50s to low 60s across the area but if the cloud cover is
thicker or more persistent then temperatures may be around 5
degrees or so to warm. Winds are then forecast to turn to the
southwest Wednesday ahead if an advancing trough as moisture
advection again occurs across eastern portions of the area. At
this time Wednesday is forecast to remain dry with the exception
of a quickly developing weak low across eastern Colorado which
may lead to some light showers across northwestern portions of
the forecast area.

Thursday and Friday is when the pattern potentially turns more
active. The trough continues to advance to the east-northeast
from the Oklahoma Panhandle along with a developing surface low
as well across southwest Kansas. The potential for rainfall has
increased across the area compared to 24 hours as guidance has
the upper level low progressing sooner to the northeast. There
are still tons of caveats and spread as well such as when
exactly does the low go more northerly. GEFS 500mb spaghetti
model remains a mess for this time but not as much as 24 hours
ago as more members are trending towards the ejection of the low
across central/eastern Kansas. If it fails to do so and is
further east into eastern Kansas then the area will be dry
slotted and receive no to little precipitation such as the
ECMFW-AIFS suggests. GEFS Mean spread also does show the
potential that the low will trek north through western Kansas
which if it does then the potential for dry slotting continues
but some locales would still see some precipitation as the low
deepens. There is also potential that the upper level low morphs
into a broader low which would increase lift area wide leading
to widespread rainfall with moderate to heavy potential on the
table as well; especially if a surface low can move through
central Kansas. With all of this said confidence in rainfall has
increased to around 30-50% for the area for this timeframe.
Confidence in dry slotting scenario is 30-40%. The other
scenario is that the low does not turn to the north and just
treks to the east, this would lead to light rain mainly south of
I-70. Confidence in this is around 10-20%. The other elephant
in the room is snow potential. Guidance has trended 850mb
temperatures a little cooler leading to cold air advection on
the backside of the low. If precipitation can still be ongoing
when this occurs then rain may change over to snowfall
especially across Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS). Some banding may
also be on the table as well in the deformation zone leading to
some accumulation potential. Majority of ensemble members have
trended towards 850mb temperatures around 0C moving into the
area which did increase my confidence enough to at least add
snow into the forecast for northwestern portions of the CWA.
Confidence in some locales seeing their first true snowflakes of
the season is around 15-24% and accumulating snowfall is around
5% currently. If snow does occur some blowing snow as it falls
would be possible as the 850mb jet increases to 25-35 knots, but
with more of a wet snow on the table once it falls it won`t get
re-lofted again. The peak time for rainfall would be Thursday
afternoon through late Friday morning with the potential for
snowfall being Friday morning.

After this system moves out, more of a split flow pattern looks
to return for the weekend with a rebound in temperatures. There
does continue to be the potential for another system
Thanksgiving week as well but confidence is way to low to get
into any details in that at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will, once again, rule through the the TAF
period.. with cloud cover confined to occasional wisps of cirrus
at/above 20,000 ft AGL. SSW winds at ~10 knots will prevail
early this morning. Winds will back to the S and increase to ~15
knots a few hours after sunrise (~16Z), further increasing to
15-25 knots during the late morning (~18Z) and persisting
through the afternoon. Winds will back to the SSE and decrease
to 12-17 knots around, or shortly before, sunset (~23Z). Breezy
(15-25 knot) SSE winds could return, at times, this evening
(02-06Z Mon) as the MSLP-850 mb height gradient tightens on the
eastern periphery of a developing lee cyclone in CO. Otherwise,
12-17 knot SSE winds are anticipated to prevail through the
remainder of the 12Z TAF period.

MCK: A short period of MVFR-IFR ceilings cannot be ruled-out
near the end of the 12Z TAF period (~09-12Z Monday). At this
time, confidence is low with regard to whether or not stratus
will develop. Otherwise, VFR conditions will rule through the
TAF period. Light/variable winds will shift to the SE by sunrise
(~12Z) this morning. SE-SSE winds will increase to 10-15 knots
during the late morning (15-16Z) and further increase to 15-20
knots by early afternoon (19Z). SSE-SE winds will decrease to
10-15 knots around, or shortly before, sunset (23Z) this evening
and persist through the remainder of the 12Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent