169
FXUS64 KHUN 031740
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

As of the late morning, no weather of consequence was occurring
across the Tennessee Valley. 10 AM temperatures were rising
through the mid/upper 70s with light SW winds. A ridging
west/troughing east setup remained in place over the greater
North American domain. This troughing was sending various upper
level systems across the area. One of them was heading eastward
across SE Tennessee (which in part helped to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of NW Alabama yesterday). Another one was
heading more to the ESE across the AR/MS border. Most of the
impacts from the second one should remain south of this forecast
area. In the afternoon, greater instability created from daytime
heating will yield isolated (low chances 20%) of showers and
thunderstorms. The storms should remain as "general" storms
intensity wise, with the usual risks of gusty outflow winds, heavy
downpours and lightning. Outside of any shower activity, high
temperatures later today should rise into the 80s with light S-SW
winds.

Shower activity should end as we go into the evening. Yet another
weak upper impulse now NW of Memphis, as it crosses middle
Tennessee heading ESE, will help more showers and storms to form
in the overnight. This activity should mainly impact our Tennessee
counties as well as portions of NE Alabama. Low temperatures
tonight should range in the 60s. More fog is also possible late
tonight, especially in/near sheltered valley locations and places
still wet from recent heavy rains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

The aformentioned disturbance, along with a cold front nearing
from the north will produce a lower risk for more showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday. Some of these storms, especially over
our more eastern and northern areas could become strong to severe
in intensity, with outflow wind gusts and maybe hail the threat.
At the moment, a Marginal risk for severe weather is just to our
NE Thursday. This threat may be extended more to the south in
future updates. High temperatures should range from the lower 80s
higher elevations and our eastern areas, to around 90 over parts
of NW Alabama. Shower activity should end Thursday evening with
lows again in the 60s.

Dry conditions are forecast Friday with highs back to summer time
levels, into the low/mid 90s. A stronger cold front is forecast to
approach the area Friday night and on Saturday. This front nearing
a modestly moist and unstable environment will bring more chances
of showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Although it is uncertain
at the moment, some of the storms then could become strong to
severe in intensity; that will be determined in future updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

As an upper level trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on
Saturday shifts east over New England through Monday, generally zonal
flow is anticipated over the local area. This looks to change by
Tuesday as an upper trough forms to our west over the Plains and
slowly progresses east towards the region. At the surface, a cold
front slated to approach the Tennessee Valley on Friday may be making
its way through northern Alabama by Saturday morning. Currently,
this feature is expected to continue its journey towards the Gulf
coast through the weekend as high pressure from the north digs
southward. By Tuesday, the high looks to be pushed northeast as low
pressure systems form out west and over the Plains.

Overall, low chances of showers and storms are forecast as the cold
front moves through on Saturday. However, after FROPA, little to no
chances of rain are anticipated Saturday evening through Monday. As
the upper trough approaches and surface high shifts northeast, rain
and storm chances then increase on Tuesday. As for temperatures,
highs are expected to remain in the 80s through Tuesday. Although, a
slight cooldown is possible on Monday due to FROPA and cold air
advection from the north/northwest. Lows will mainly be in the 60s,
with the coolest night expected Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR conditions prevailed as a weak SW flow continues across the
Tennessee Valley. Strong daytime heating and resultant instability
have resulted in the formation of showers across the region. More
development is expected as we go into the early evening. Given
higher chances added a VCSH for both terminals this afternoon,
with some activity already forming. Convection should fade in the
early evening with fog development possible, mainly in sheltered
areas and locations that received rainfall. More shower activity
are possible late in the TAF, however did not include them this
issuance given uncertainty in timing.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RSB