900
FXUS64 KHUN 152008
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
208 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 951 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

 - Gusty southwest winds 20-25 mph this afternoon.

 - Cooler temperatures expected Sunday night behind a dry cold
   front.

 - Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms Tue night
   through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 208 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The mid level cloud cover from earlier has mixed out and in its
wake mostly sunny skies are present across the TN Valley. A few
patches of high cirrus clouds have been passing overhead from the
NW. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s, which is nearly 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Breezy conditions will
continue through the afternoon and into the evening with gusts
20-25 mph expected. By tonight, winds should decrease down to
10-15 mph preventing any fog form forming. Overnight lows remain
mild with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday Night)
Issued at 951 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

As a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region into
the Northeast, a cold front to its south will drop southward and
push into the Southeast. With the lack of moisture ahead of it,
our dry forecast will continue on Sunday as the front pushes
across the local forecast area. Temperatures Sunday afternoon
will rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s prior to the frontal
passage. A cooler and drier airmass begins to filter in Sunday
evening making for a much colder night as temperatures fall into
the upper 30s by Monday morning. The cooler weather will be
short lived as upper level ridging begins to build back into the
Southeast on Monday. However, WAA advection will take some time as
afternoon highs on Monday rise into the mid 60s, which is near
climatological normals for mid November. Some ensemble guidance
has a weak shortwave passing through Tennessee Monday evening, but
the trends continue to hold any precip areas just north of the
local forecast area. Therefore, maintained the dry forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Global models continue to indicate that a dampening mid-level
trough will accelerate eastward over the Mid-Atlantic states and
offshore Tuesday/Tuesday night, with the decaying surface wave
predicted to shift into the southern Appalachians. Weak low-level
confluence in conjunction with the movement of the low coupled
with diurnal warming and the return of dewpoints in the u50s-l60s
may support development of showers and some thunderstorms
(particularly across the northern half of the region) on Tuesday.
However, it appears as if a layer of stable air in the mid-levels
will limit CAPE and keep the risk the risk for organized
convection rather low (in spite of marginally favorable mid-level
WNW flow of 35-45 knots and a WSW low-level jet of 30-35 knots).

Present indications are that the remnant confluence axis may
drift southward into the region on Tuesday night before returning
northward on Wednesday in response to lee cyclogenesis across the
southern High Plains that will become more pronounced with time as
an amplified southern stream trough ejects out of the
southwestern CONUS. Although low clouds and some showers will be
possible in this pattern, the greatest concentration of rain and
thunderstorms (especially from Wednesday night into Thursday) will
be displaced to our west and north (closer to the effective warm
front).

During the period from Thursday night into Friday, an area of low
pressure (initially across the southern High Plains) will
gradually intensify and accelerate northeastward into the Great
Lakes in conjunction with the southern stream trough. Although
there is still considerable uncertainty regarding when this will
occur, a surface trough trailing southward off the low may bring
an increasing risk for rain and thunderstorms to our region on
Friday. Although both low-level and deep-layer shear appear
conducive for organized storms at this point, instability may be
limited by widespread clouds and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless,
this is a system we will need to monitor closely over the coming
days. Highs and lows next week will remain very mild and in the
m-u 70s/m-u 50s respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Expect gusty
winds this afternoon out of the SW between 20-25 knots. While
these will subside a bit this evening down to around 15 knots,
expect LLWS to begin due to a low level jet streak moving across
northern Alabama tonight. Winds will then begin to veer from the
SW to NW tomorrow morning as a cold front drops down from the
north.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH