684
FXUS63 KICT 120024
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
724 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures continuing into Sunday with
  increasing southerly winds.

- Rain chances expected to return Sunday night into Tuesday with
  the best chances on Monday.

- Near-normal temperatures to start the week before above normal
  temperatures return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Currently, there is upper-level ridging over the Central Plains,
resulting in northwesterly flow aloft in our area. At the surface, a
stationary front is draped across western Kansas into northern
Oklahoma. As this upper-level ridge shifts slightly east tonight,
the front will lift back north as a warm front. With still being
under the influence of the ridge and southerly flow at the surface,
drier weather and above-normal temperatures are expected to continue
into Sunday afternoon. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid to
upper 80s on Sunday, which is about 15 degrees above normal for this
time of year. An upper-level trough currently over northern
California will move northeast, approaching the Northern Plains by
early Sunday afternoon. This will strengthen the pressure gradient
in our area causing sustained winds around 20-25 mph with gusts up
to 35 mph on Sunday afternoon.

This upper-level trough will push a cold front into Kansas on late
Sunday night, making precipitation chances possible late Sunday
night, though scattered showers and storm chances are generally
low (around 20%). Better rain chances are expected on Monday as the
front pushes south into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. Though, given
the model discrepancy, there is uncertainty with timing on Monday
and location/coverage. PWAT values are generally expected to be
above 1.25" by Monday morning with PWATS increasing to 1.6" Monday
afternoon. These PWAT values are 175-200% greater than normal for
this time of year, leading to efficient rainfall for any shower or
storm that develops. Given generally 200-400 J/kg of instability is
forecast, mainly rain showers and a few storms are expected. Strong
to severe storms are not anticipated, especially given the weak mid-
lvl lapse rates. Following the front, cooler temperatures are
expected on Monday and Tuesday especially with rain and expansive
cloud cover in place. Afternoon highs will be in the 60s to 70s
which is closer to near normal temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.

By Wednesday, another deep upper-level trough is expected to dig
into the southwest CONUS, returning westerly to southwesterly flow
aloft in our area. Additionally, this will amplify the upper-level
ridge over the Plains/Mississippi Valley as the ridge slowly moves
east. This will limit rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. At the
surface, southerly flow will return along with above normal
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon highs will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. The next round of precipitation will
likely be with this southwestern trough as it lifts east/northeast
into the plains area. Potential chances look to be late Thursday
night into Friday, though this forecast will need to be refined as
we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours across central,
south-central, and southeast Kansas.

The primary aviation concern will be low-level wind shear around
1500-2000 ft AGL overnight into early Sunday morning at all TAF
sites except CNU, due to a 45-55 kt southwesterly low-level
jet. For Sunday, the primary concern will be stout/gusty
south-southwesterly surface winds by mid-morning and persisting
through the day, as a strong cold front approaches from the
northwest. By late day, this cold front should have just passed
through RSL and knocking on the doorstep of GBD, with gusty
northwest winds in its wake.

Precipitation chances should remain fairly low. However, can`t
rule out a few spotty light showers or sprinkles spreading
slowly east across the region late tonight through Sunday, due
to increasing rich mid-level moisture. Chances see too low for
mention in TAFs at this time. Additionally, could see a few
showers pop up by late Sunday in vicinity of GBD, SLN, and RSL
along the approaching cold front, but will wait for later TAF
issuances to consider mention.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...ADK