814
FXUS61 KILN 101100
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
600 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong mid level disturbance will drop south through the area
today. This will result snow showers bringing the first light snow
accumulations of the season. Unseasonably cold air will gradually
moderate as the week progresses.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The center of a robust mid level shortwave centered over southern
Lake Michigan to swing south-southeast through the larger flow
dropping south of the region to a position over KY by afternoon.

Ahead of this feature some very light disorganized snow showers were
occurring across the area at this time. An east-west oriented
surface trough will drop into northern counties of the area by 12z
and then south thru the area by mid afternoon. There continues to be
some minor timing differences within the model solutions, but close
to I-70 corridor by daybreak.

This will allow for a period of enhanced snow showers which will
become more numerous as the surface feature moves into the area.
Snow accumulations may end up at 1-2 inches for a good portion of the
area in grassy areas, with melting on concrete surfaces limiting
accumulations. Main impacts are expected to be reduced visibility
and some slick spots on mainly bridges and overpasses. Will continue
to highlight these hazards in a special weather statement. Expect a
limited diurnal rise today with readings during the afternoon
generally in the upper 20s. Brisk northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph will result in wind chill readings in the
teens to lower 20s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Secondary disturbance dropping southeast across the back side of the
deep upper low affecting the tonight. This combined with northwest
flow off Lake Michigan will likely bring another band of snow into
the area this evening into the overnight hours. This will primarily
affect west central and central Ohio. Any additional accumulation
will be less than an inch. Expect cold lows in the lower 20s with
wind chill readings in the lower teens.

The mid level trof shift off to the east with northwest flow in its
wake. Surface high pressure builds across the area with mid and high
level clouds streaming into the region. Temperatures reach highs in
the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface ridging will briefly build into the middle Ohio Valley
Tuesday. This will keep temperatures cold but may allow for short
periods of sunshine. By Wednesday, another surface front will quickly
make its way through the region. This front appears to be a dry one,
but westerly winds will be gusty due to the increasing pressure
gradient.

Mid-level ridging will begin to build into the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes late in the week into the weekend. Westerly winds will become
more southwesterly during this period. Highs will begin to lift into
the 50s and perhaps into the lower 60s by Saturday.

A mid-level trough will make its way into the Mississippi Valley by
late in the weekend. The depth and location of the associated
surface low varies greatly across ensembles and their members.
However, the pattern certainly implies a good chance of rain for
Sunday. Temperatures will be well above normal to close the period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An east-west oriented surface trough will approach the northern
TAF sites early and then south thru the entire area by mid
afternoon. Ahead of this feature some very light disorganized snow
showers were occurring across the area at this time with generally
MVFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities at times. As the surface trough
drops south expect a period of enhanced snow showers which will allow
conditions to drop to IFR and LIFR at times.

The snow should taper off by early afternoon and visibilities and
ceilings will improve with VFR conditions developing during the mid
to late afternoon hours. A Secondary disturbance dropping southeast
across the back side of the deep upper low may affect KCMH and KLCK
tonight. This combined with northwest flow off Lake Michigan may
bring another band of snow into the northern areas this evening into
the overnight hours. Have a prob30 mention for this possibility.

Northwesterly winds will continue through the period at 10-13 knots,
with gusts up to 23 knots possible, particularly during the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR