132
FXUS61 KILN 120658
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
258 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to dominate the region today, allowing for
dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures. Rounds of
showers with some thunderstorms will return for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The upper level ridge continues to push east today, allowing for
light SW flow to bring in increasing low level moisture. Today will
be the warmest day of the week with highs in the mid to upper 80s
under thickening clouds/some high level smoke.

While much of the region remains under the influence of high pressure
centered to the SE of the region, a nearly stationary boundary across
the lower Great Lakes would bring shower activity to our north.
Continue to expect any activity to remain north of the forecast area,
though anticipating more substantial clouds north of roughly the I-70
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As high pressure continues to depart the region tonight, mid and
high level clouds thicken in advance of a deepening mid level trough
over the central MS valley and its associated advancing shortwave.
With the increased clouds/SW flow, muggy conditions and above normal
overnight lows in the upper 60s expected. Some variance in how the
trough maintains its strength and whether or not it becomes closed as
it approaches the western Ohio Valley, so timing is a bit uncertain.
There does appear to be at least some potential for widely scattered
showers to approach the Indiana/Ohio border after 06z.

For Friday during the day, increased SW flow as the upper trough
approaches the region will bring more numerous showers, with embedded
thunderstorms by afternoon with diurnal instability. With increasing
clouds/showers, have tempered daytime highs a bit to generally in the
lower to mid 80s, with upper 80s still possible in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Friday evening, an upper trough -- possibly a closed low -- will
be centered over the middle Mississippi Valley region. Ahead of this
trough, deep-layer southerly flow will be in place from the
southeastern CONUS into the Ohio Valley, providing moisture
advection into the region. The upstream trough will gradually move
east over the following day or two, providing a source of forcing
for a moist and somewhat unstable air mass. Model soundings do not
indicate particularly steep lapse rates, but nonetheless, widespread
showers and storms are expected both Saturday and Sunday -- with the
greatest chances tied to the typical diurnal cycle. Highs in the
lower 80s are expected Saturday and Sunday. Based on the sounding
profiles, any risk for severe weather would probably be limited and
marginal, though some risk for heavy rain could develop.

For Monday and beyond, the overall flow pattern will become a bit
more progressive. Model agreement in exactly how this will set up is
not particularly strong, but there does seem to be a signal for more
zonal flow aloft and a quicker progression of weather disturbances
across the region -- a change from some of the slow-moving low
pressure systems from the past few weeks. While confidence is low in
any forecast specifics for next week, occasional chances for showers
and storms can be expected -- with a generally unstable air mass and
highs in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
With winds becoming calm and only high thin cirrus, high pressure
will allow for VFR conditions through the forecast period. The
exception will be KLUK, where MVFR visibility will develop, dropping
to LIFR in the 09-12z timeframe. FG should dissipate by 13z, with
just slowly increasing high clouds and winds less than 10kts.

OUTLOOK...Storms will be possible Friday through Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ070-071-077-078.
     Air Quality Alert from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening
     for OHZ046-055-056-065.
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ091>093.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-
     074.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...JDR