Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
459 FXUS61 KILN 090708 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 208 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A compact area of low pressure will track across the area this morning bringing rain to the region. Much colder air will come in behind the low allowing lingering precipitation to change from rain to snow. A disturbance will push through the area on Monday bringing the first light snow accumulations of the season. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Short wave and low pressure will quickly move across the area this morning. The surface low will move into southwest Ohio by daybreak. This will bring rain into the area by sunrise. As the low quickly tracks east of the area by aftn the more widespread precipitation will diminish. A surface cold front trailing the low to the southwest will then sweep across the area. This feature may bring some additional showers with the frontal passage. A limited diurnal rise to temperatures is possible ahead of the front with temperatures falling after cold frontal passage. Northwest winds will increase with gusts up to 25 mph. The potential for spotty showers in the cold air advection will continue into the afternoon - with a change from rain to snow over the northwest later in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Closed mid level low drops south-southeast from the western Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley by Monday morning and then into the base of the long wave trough in TN Valley Monday. This will be accompanied by a low level trough which will cross the area on Monday. Expect snow showers overnight with an enhanced axis of snow showers along this trough - which pivots south thru the area Monday. Expect a period of reduced visibility and some light snow accumulation. With the better coverage and intensity of snow showers expected during the day Monday and with relatively warm pavement temperatures, expect little if any accumulation on roadways. Some light accumulation can be expected on grassy areas and elevated surfaces. This being the first event of the season and WSSI indicating 40-60 probabilities of minor impacts, will mention in HWO product. Lows tonight fall into the mid and upper 20s. Highs on Monday range from the lower 30s to the middle 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper trough will be east of the area Monday night with gusty northwesterly winds becoming westerly late. Best chance of snow showers will be in bands downwind of Lake Michigan (north of I-70) early before ending as flow becomes westerly. Lows will drop to the lower 20s with wind chills in the 10-15 degree range. Surface ridging will briefly build into the middle Ohio Valley Tuesday. This will keep temperatures cold but may allow for short periods of sunshine. By Wednesday, another surface front will quickly make its way through the region. This front appears to be a dry one, but westerly winds will be gusty due to the increasing pressure gradient. Mid-level ridging will begin to build into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes late in the week into the weekend. Westerly winds will become more southwesterly during this period. Highs will begin to lift into the 50s and perhaps into the lower 60s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface low pressure will quickly move across the area this morning. This will bring rain into the area by sunrise. As the low quickly tracks east of the area by aftn the more widespread precipitation will diminish. A surface cold front trailing the low to the southwest will then sweep across the area. This feature may bring some additional showers with the frontal passage. Rain will overspread the TAF sites from west to east with MVFR reductions in ceilings and visibilities early. There is some weak elevated instability, so cannot rule out some thunder, particularly at KCVG and KLUK, however, confidence in thunder is very low, so have kept it out of the TAFs. Ceilings continue to deteriorate to IFR with scatted rain showers this aftn. These rain showers mix with and change to snow showers late in the afternoon into early evening. Coverage of pcpn late in the day into tonight appears to be limited - so have kept mention to PROB30. Light and variable winds become easterly around 5 knots early this morning. After sunrise, winds are expected to back to the north and then northwest and increase in intensity. Afternoon winds from the northwest area expected around 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist into Monday with MVFR to IFR visibilities on Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR