221
FXUS64 KJAN 300537
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1137 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Rain expected tonight into Sunday, with colder conditions
    into next week.

  - Monitoring the potential for light freezing rain over far
    northwest portions of the area Monday morning.

  - Locally heavy rainfall is expected Monday through Monday
    night.

  - It will remain colder than normal with another potential rain
    event late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Tonight:

Rainfall will continue tonight as a shortwave trough pushes through
the region. Showers are likely with perhaps an isolated rumble of
thunder not out of the question. Severe weather is not
anticipated as instability/moisture are limited.

Sunday into Monday:

Primary concern for possibly heavy rain and a brief period of wintry
weather continues for Sunday night through Tuesday morning as
another shortwave trough moves across the area. Following tonight`s
front, cold air advection will become entrenched at the surface. By
Sunday evening, warm air advection aloft is expected to lift
moisture over the cold surface air which will bring increased clouds
initially and by perhaps mid morning Monday mostly virga rainfall
will have sufficiently moistened the low-levels to allow for
rainfall to reach the ground. Should this moistening occur
sufficiently quickly before we warm above temperatures hovering
near freezing early Monday morning, portions of SE AR, NW MS Delta
could see some risk for a brief period of trace freezing rain.
However, meaningful accumulation isn`t expected as surface/ground
temps remain well above freezing. Vegetation or elevated surfaces
could become briefly glazed but road surfaces are unlikely to be
sufficiently cold for sufficient duration to result in meaningful
road hazards. Regardless, caution should be exercised when
travailing, particularly over overpasses and less-traveled areas,
as roads will certainly be wet and slick regardless of ice
potential. As the morning progress, any frozen precip in the NW
parts of the area will transition to rain and widespread rainfall
is expected through the rest of Monday and into Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday:

Cold temps are expected post-frontal passage as high range from the
lower 40 in the north to lower 50 degrees in the south and lows
reach the lower 20s to mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs are
expected to remain below seasonal averages; however; temps will
gradually warm to where highs reach the mid/upper 50s and lows reach
the mid/upper 30s. Next chances for rainfall is expected Thursday
into the weekend as another shortwave trough traverse the area.
Severe weather isnt currently expected with limited thermodynamic
recovery anticipated and the pattern largely remaining suppressed.
/SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

MVFR/IFR ceilings will move across the area tonight along with
-RA. The front as of 11:30PM is located in southeast Arkansas.
 Rain and low stratus will diminish in the northwest in its wake,
 but will linger in the southeastern half of the area. Winds will
 gust out of the north in its wake around 17kts./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       55  46  55  39 /  30  90  80  40
Meridian      52  44  54  37 /  10  60  90  30
Vicksburg     55  41  52  37 /  60  90  70  30
Hattiesburg   66  49  62  43 /   0  40  80  30
Natchez       62  45  56  39 /  40  90  90  40
Greenville    52  36  44  32 /  70  90  20  10
Greenwood     57  39  47  33 /  40  90  30  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/SW/SAS20