363
FXUS64 KJAN 141749 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Mid morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA at the
base of an upper level trough with a shortwave over northern
Mississippi and another over the northeast Texas coast. These
shortwaves each had an area of convection with them his morning.
Latest surface analysis had a ridge across the northern Gulf from
the east. This surface ridge along with its southwest low level
flow was already helping to initiate convection across our
southeast zones. The convection across northern Mississippi had
not yet spread south into our northern zones but during the
afternoon hours the convection in our south and to our north are
expected to spread across our CWA and result in numerous coverage
of storms. Minor adjusts to the timing of rain chances were made
but the forecast remains on track. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Through Next Friday...

The weather will remain essentially the same over the next 7 days:
Daytime sporadic showers and thunderstorms forming in the mid
morning, steadily building in both coverage and intensity by mid
afternoon and tapering off through the waning daylight hours,
finally dissipating an hour or two after sunset.

Rain totals both from singular storms, and for the overarching week
remain pretty low (<2in/7days) so there are no concerns for flash
flooding. Some rivers remain elevated from last week`s rises so we
can expect these rivers to hover around the same levels, with no
significant relief in sight.

The big question will be the max expected intensity for these
storms, and over the weekend and into the early week the environment
does not support any strong organization and thus wind and hail will
remain below severe thresholds. Mid to late week it does look like
the overall synoptic pattern begins to sharpen and organize, and
this looks to be the timeframe with the highest probability for
severe storms. Since that`s still quite a few days out we`re not a
the point where our confidence is high enough regarding
timing/coverage to really elucidate on this further.

We will continue to monitor any shifts in the upper level pattern,
and attendant resolution shifts in order to dial in the threats,
if any,for next week.

Other than that, hot and humid days are in store with the heat index
steadily climbing day to day, Some sites should break into the
triple digit HIs by mid week, which could trigger some products
communicating heat danger./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Scattered to numerous TSRA wl move across the area this aftn and
reduce flying conditions. The TSRA wl dissipate this evening. Away
from TSRA VFR conditions will prevail until after 11Z when MVFR
cigs wl develop and prevail until after 15Z. After 15Z VFR
conditions are expected areawide until scattered to numerous TSRA
develop Sunday aftn again. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  72  87  72 /  60  30  80  30
Meridian      90  70  89  71 /  70  30  90  30
Vicksburg     90  72  89  74 /  60  30  80  20
Hattiesburg   93  73  91  73 /  60  30  90  20
Natchez       89  72  88  73 /  60  30  80  20
Greenville    88  72  88  73 /  50  30  70  20
Greenwood     88  72  89  72 /  80  40  70  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/OAJ/22