417
FXUS64 KJAN 111125 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
525 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Following a widespread freeze this morning, temperatures will
    moderate through the remainder of the week.

  - Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will result in limited
    fire danger today.

  - The next chance for rain is not expected until late this
    weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

It`s the coldest morning of the season as surface ridging shifts
across the area, though filtered high clouds are preventing
conditions from being quite as cold as they might have otherwise
been. Nevertheless, as the ridge shifts eastward, low level flow
will turn southerly today commencing a moderating trend that will
continue through the week, with seasonably warm conditions
returning by the daytime tomorrow. It will remain dry through the
majority of the forecast period thanks to stout upper ridging
over the central CONUS.

Though we will begin to see a change in airmass today, with very
dry air still prevailing across the region and breezy southerly
winds, there will be limited fire danger as we begin to warm up
later today. Extra caution should be exercised with any outdoor
burning. By tomorrow, humidity should recover to above critical
thresholds, so this will become much less of a concern.

Details on the next chance of rain remain somewhat uncertain as
guidance continues to vary on the timing of a cutoff upper low and
a potential leading shortwave trough. Either way, dry conditions
still appear likely to last into Saturday. There is potential for
mainly lighter showers to return by early Sunday, but more
substantial rainfall seems unlikely to return before Monday. GFS
based machine learning guidance hints at some potential for strong
storms early next week, though ECM based guidance is less keen.
This remains a time frame where you should expect additional
refinements in the forecast over the coming days. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       58  42  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      57  37  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     60  45  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   60  40  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       61  44  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    57  45  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     57  44  71  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

/DL/22