Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
734 FXUS62 KKEY 040835 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 435 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms have been moving across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters for the majority of the overnight. We are starting to see a decline in activity but the KAMX radar shows more upstream near the Bahamas. While we have seen a flurry of precipitation overnight, rainfall totals for the island chain are generally one to two-tenths of an inch. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure located near the central and northwestern Bahamas has not moved since developing yesterday. This feature continues to weaken the southwestern flank of a broad high pressure that is anchored over the eastern half of the U.S. In turn, this has resulted in a gradual slackening of winds. .FORECAST... The aforementioned area of low pressure near the Bahamas is expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next couple of days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of the low. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary it developed along will hold in place through the upcoming weekend. All of this to say, we are still expecting an active period of weather for the Florida Keys. As this features lifts northwest of the Keys by Monday, high pressure that remains anchored along the eastern half of the U.S. will fill back in. This will result in freshening northeast to east breezes. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary will attempt to lift north of the Florida Keys but get shoved back across the island chain as the high builds in. This will keep the boundary and moisture in place through next week. When combined with the moderate to fresh breezes, convergence zones will likely develop at times and promote shower and thunderstorm development. Therefore, will keep generally above normal rain chances through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 A weak area of low pressure located near the central and northwestern Bahamas will act to weaken the pressure gradient briefly across the Florida Keys this weekend. This will result in slackening breezes veering from the northeast to the southeast today through Sunday. This system is expected to drift west- northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next couple of days. As it lifts north and northwest of the Keys, high pressure across the Atlantic will build back in resulting in freshening northeast to east breezes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 The active pattern remains in place this weekend across the Keys. VFR conditions are mostly expected through the TAF package. Latest radar imagery shows isolated showers mainly offshore from the EYW terminal with this activity expected to wane by 04/09z. Latest guidance suggests more shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the day and tonight, however, the timing and placement of any activity is low confidence. VCSH was left out of the TAF after 04/09z as a result. Any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of producing blinding downpours reducing VIS and CIGs, gusty winds, and potential for lightning. Near surface winds will be northeast to east between 5 to 12 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1933, a Hurricane moved northeast off of Cuba through the Straits, passing about 30 miles offshore Key Largo. Little significant damage was reported. Key West recorded 13.54" of rain (a record for the date as well as the wettest day ever recorded in October and the third-wettest day ever in Key West. Rainfall data for Key West dates back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 79 88 79 / 60 40 30 30 Marathon 86 78 87 79 / 60 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest