Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
538 FXUS64 KLIX 022359 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 559 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 543 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 - The next chance for rain remains overnight Tuesday and Wednesday morning as another cold front approaches and moves into the local area. Rain totals are currently forecast to be less than one inch and no significant impacts are expected. - Following the cold front, there will be potential for freezing temperatures again Thursday and Friday morning, mainly along/north of the I-10/12 corridor. Strong winds in the wake of the cold front will also lead to hazardous conditions across the coastal waters. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1214 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Tonight through Tuesday night, conditions will be dry overall and on a warming trend. High temperatures today are in the low 60s and tomorrow will be forecast in the upper 60s and low 70s. The lows tomorrow morning will be in the low to mid 40s across the area. So, no concerns about freezing temperatures tonight/tomorrow morning. Overall, it should be a pleasant few days for the area. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1214 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Tuesday night through Wednesday night, a weak cold front will move through the area, enhancing rain chances. In general, looking at the models, these storms could be strong, but are not expected to be severe at this time. The main threats as the storms move through will be lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40-55mph). Some localized flash flooding could also be possible in urban areas as the system moves through, but we are not expecting widespread flooding concerns given the progressive nature of the system. This cold front will lower temperatures temporarily from cold air advection, but it will not be as severe a drop as the most recent cold snap. Generally, Thursday morning, lows will be near freezing for areas along and north of I-10/12. Friday morning, lows will be above freezing for all locations across the area. It may touch freezing for an hour or two in coastal MS (mainly Jackson County), but it would be very short-lived freeze conditions. So, likely there will be no need for any cold headlines or products. Thursday through the weekend, high pressure builds over the area and dominates the upper level pattern. Highs will be in the upper 60s and low 70s through the weekend with lows in the mid 40s. Looking at the models, conditions will also be dry all weekend. So, overall looking at a very pleasant weekend with conditions near normal or just above normal for this time of year. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions will continue across the region. Mid and upper level clouds will stream in from the west and southwest while winds will remain light overnight and then begin to slowly increase tomorrow. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1214 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 High pressure has settled over the region and winds have relaxed. As high pressure starts to push east of the area later today we will begin to see light return flow. By tonight low pressure will begin to move across the southern Plains and into the TN Valley Tuesday afternoon. At the same time the sfc high will be centered over FL leading to moderate to strong onshore flow with the possibility of needing SCS or low end SCY headlines. The cold front will then slide across the area Wednesday bringing winds back out of the northwest and gusty and SCY headlines are likely by Wednesday afternoon/evening. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...CAB MARINE...MSW