Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
040 FXUS64 KLIX 031819 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1219 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 - It will be chilly Tuesday morning, with lows in the low to mid 40`s. Low 50`s southshore and SE LA. - Warming trend expected mid to late week, building into the upper 70`s to 80`s for many areas Thursday thru Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 High pressure will mostly be in control to start the new workweek. After a cool morning, temperatures have warmed back into the 60s and 70s. Relative humidity values have trailed off a good bit with the dry part of the afternoon seeing RH values as low as around 30 percent, especially along and north of the I10/12 corridor. This would mean a conditional fire weather risk does reside respectively, however, with much of the tighter pressure gradient (stronger winds) being offshore, the overall threat is conditional. Going into tonight we will see again clear skies and calm winds, which will help radiate effectively. Although not as cool as this morning, it will likely be close with most locations away from the warmer bodies of water dropping into the lower to middle 40s. On Tuesday weak upper ridging begins to center over the CWFA. At the surface, a very weak return flow (ESE direction) takes shape later in the afternoon marking the start of a gradual warming trend across the region. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 Going into midweek a very interesting synoptic pattern takes shape over the northern Gulf. A weak Rex Block appears to form as the H5 ridge parks itself over the low over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf. At the surface, winds will continue to evolve into a more return southerly flow across the CWFA. With the higher heights and increasing low level flow a warming trend should continue. By Thursday and Friday, globals are indicating a weak QPF signal within the rich low level onshore flow. Could be a few streamer showers with this activity, but the overall signal is very weak with most of the shower activity residing over the open waters. Going into the weekend, generally an above average temperature pattern sets up. Eyes turn northwest toward an approaching cold front and stronger parent upper level broad scale trough. Globals are in agreement in terms of a strong cold frontal passage through the region. However, timing is a bit questionable. That said, the QPF signal among the globals is overall weak so although this would probably be our next best rain chance, still took POPs on the lower side of things given the lackluster signal. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 VFR conditions expected through the cycle. Winds will decrease around sunset this evening and become more easterly by the end of the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 Moderate offshore flow will continues across the open Gulf waters through Tuesday afternoon as pressure gradient between high pressure over the Southeast and low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea interact. Some improvement is anticipated going into midweek, however, as the surface high spreads east away from the region a more onshore southerly flow develops Thursday and into Friday. This may help generate some isolated showers over the local waters going into the weekend. The overall strength of the surface flow will be light to moderate. At this point, beyond Tuesday, no additional marine headlines are expected through the remainder of the week. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 41 73 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 43 74 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 41 73 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 53 75 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 46 72 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 41 74 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF