Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
993 FXUS64 KLIX 100553 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1153 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Temperatures will moderate Wednesday. Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday through at least Saturday. - Little or no rain expected through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A broad upper trough covered much of the country east of the Rockies. A strong shortwave was racing southeastward through Montana, with ridging remaining along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, the axis of high pressure extended from the Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast. An Alberta Clipper type surface low was moving into Minnesota this evening. Skies were clear this evening with temperatures generally in the upper 30s and lower 40s away from Lake Pontchartrain. Temperatures may actually warm a couple degrees toward sunrise as cirrus arrives from the northwest. That should also lower the potential for patchy fog. Don`t expect it to become widespread. The Montana shortwave will already be over Tennessee Wednesday evening, and closing off a low over New England Thursday evening. The surface low will already be over Lake Ontario Wednesday evening with a cold front to the northern Gulf Coast. Precipitable water values remain near or below the 50th percentile (occasionally below the 25th percentile ahead of, and behind the cold front. This is going to make it difficult to generate clouds, let alone rain. Highs Wednesday should be mid 60s to lower 70s across most or all of the area. Cold advection in the wake of the front probably won`t be noticeable in low temperatures Wednesday night and could actually be warmer than the current temperatures. Thursday highs likely to be upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The longwave trough will remain over the eastern half of the country through the weekend. The Pacific Coast upper ridge will briefly shift eastward into the southern Plains and then eastward along the Gulf Coast, reaching the Atlantic Coast by next Tuesday night. the next cold front will reach the local area Saturday night or Sunday. That cold front may provide the only chance of precipitation until about this time next week, and even at that, we`d probably be talking about less than one-quarter inch. Onshore winds will bring a warmup, as compared to Thursday, for Friday and Saturday. The weekend frontal passage will bring a brief shot of colder air to the area Sunday into Monday, with maybe 24-36 hours of below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Primarily VFR conditions through the forecast period. Could be a little bit of radiation fog at KHUM, but with cirrus arriving in the next few hours, that should limit the spread. Threat is non-zero elsewhere. Dry cold frontal passage during the midday hours on Wednesday, but forecast soundings indicate it may be tough to even get more than a few clouds below the cirrus level. Sustained winds could get up to around 15 knots briefly at KNEW, around the time of the frontal passage, and again after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be necessary Wednesday night into Thursday, then again Sunday or Sunday night with cold air advection behind the passage of cold fronts. Otherwise, wind speeds should stay well below 15 knots. Forecast dew points for Friday and Saturday would suggest that there is at least a low end threat of sea fog in a few locations where water temperatures are in the mid 50s or cooler. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 66 36 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 69 39 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 68 38 61 42 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 70 47 61 48 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 67 40 60 45 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 66 37 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW