261
FXUS64 KLUB 040515
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1215 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

 - Warmer than normal temperatures continue this weekend, but will
   trend slightly lower next week.

 - A few storms are expected Friday and Saturday, but dry weather
   will otherwise continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Water vapor imagery late Thursday evening highlights an elongated
upper level ridge axis extending from the OH Valley westward over OK
and into NW TX, a positioning generally unchanged from this time
yesterday. Continued southerly surface flow overnight will keep lows
mild, with temperatures only falling into low to mid 70s by Friday
morning which is several degrees above the normal low for this time
of year. Although the center of the ridge aloft is progged to shift
slightly westward over the next 24 hours, minimal change in H5
heights will result in temperatures similar to or even a bit cooler
on Friday compared to Thursday. A weakness along the western extent
of the ridge associated with a monsoonal moisture plume centered
over NM will also result in yet another round of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening. Confidence
in storm coverage and favored location for development is low given
uncertainty in the magnitude of mid/upper level subsidence with the
building ridge. However, forecast soundings depict minimal
inhibition which combined with relatively steep low/mid level lapse
rates should provide a favorable setup for isolated storms to
develop just about anywhere across the forecast area Friday
afternoon. That being said, coverage will likely be highest
(though still scattered at best) near the TX/NM state line in
closer proximity to the deeper moisture. Storms will again quickly
fade after sunset with another quiet overnight period expected
heading into the holiday weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

One more round of isolated storms is possible Saturday afternoon and
evening near the TX/NM state line before the building upper level
ridge cuts off our supply of monsoonal moisture. Models remain in
good agreement keeping ridging firmly in place through early next
week with high temperatures expected to remain in the range of about
5 to 10 degrees above normal, though at this time it appears that
highs will remain below record levels. Model spread still increases
heading into the second half of the week with the precise evolution
of the riding aloft remaining uncertain. Even so, it looks unlikely
that any meaningful moisture will be able to move over the West TX
region, and the large majority of ensemble members maintain a dry
and anomalously warm forecast through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible once again Friday afternoon and evening. While
overall storm chances are low, any storm that affects a terminal
will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 45 knots. Check
density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...51