612
FXUS64 KLUB 251106
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
606 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

 - Showers and a few storms increasing through early Sunday on the
   Caprock.

 - Lingering rain chances Monday, drier midweek, then rain chances
   return by late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Similar to Friday evening, storms were lining up across central and
eastern New Mexico ahead of a slow-moving upper low poised in
northern Arizona. As a shortwave trough rotates through the base of
this low and ejects to its east on Sunday afternoon, the low will
begin curling northeast and transition into an open wave in the
central Rockies by Sunday night. This modest eastward translation
doesn`t sound impactful for us, but it`s enough to steer a richer
layer of mid-level moisture and improved ascent our way.

Scattered-to-numerous showers and a few storms should first impact
our far western counties after midnight before expanding over more
of the Caprock through the morning hours. Ascent will be tied to a
shortwave trough near El Paso as of 10 PM. PWATs on the Caprock are
pushing 200 percent of normal with tall ELs, deep warm cloud depths,
and unidirectional flow. All of these factors support flooding, yet
the fly in the ointment remains inconsistent signals for where the
heaviest rain falls. A minority of CAMs paint training convection
across our northwestern counties Sunday morning where swaths of 1-2
inches of rain are possible (flash flood guidance remains higher at
2-4 inches), while the broader consensus favors totals under 1 inch.

As we shift into the afternoon and say goodbye to the shortwave
trough, subsidence becomes more prominent and our PoPs trend lower.
The next round of precip should emerge Sunday night in far eastern
New Mexico and the western panhandle as the fringes of the upper low
graze these areas. Our northwestern counties are included in this
nocturnal precip round once again which could renew minor flooding
woes. High temps Sunday will be curbed in the 60s for much of the
Caprock under thick stratus and breezy south winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Following one last shortwave trough affecting the region on Monday
with rain chances reaching beyond the Caprock, rain chances dry up
for Tuesday and Wednesday under drier and more stable southwest
flow. This milder and drier theme for midweek looks short lived
as the southern jet stream amplifies in response to deep troughing
occupying the West Coast. Combined with a return of ample Pacific
moisture (including a potential tap from a tropical wave), this
pattern is favorable for another regional precip scenario by the
final few days of October. No cold fronts are on the horizon
anytime soon, and dewpoints hold in the 50s most days and nights.
This points to mild nightly lows with daily highs returning to
near-normal territory by Tuesday and remain so through Halloween.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Showers are beginning to fill in at KPVW and KLBB. These showers
will produce light to moderate rain. MVFR ceiling has accompanied
these showers. VFR conditions will prevail for KCDS. Showers will
continue east towards KCDS, however are not expected to impact
KCDS. Showers are expected around the terminal, however would not
be surprised if one or two showers impact KCDS. Showers will be
possible at KPVW and KLBB through late afternoon before conditions
return to VFR.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10