326
FXUS64 KLUB 061739
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1139 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

 - Strong west-southwest winds will result in elevated to critical fire
   danger through the rest of today.

 - Cooler temperatures arrive Saturday in the wake of an early-
   day cold front.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return the start of the work
   week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A highly amplified upper level pattern continues today as deep
mid/upper level troughing persists over the western half of the
CONUS. A closed low currently over the Four Corners will separate
from the mean flow through the rest of today and into tonight, then
retrograde southwestward over the Baja peninsula on Saturday. This
evolution will result in the continuation of breezy to windy
conditions through the rest of today, then a cooldown on Saturday
behind a cold front which is set to pass southward through the
region tonight. Highs today are still expected to peak in the 70s on
the Caprock with mid 80s off the Caprock as strong downslope surface
flow continues. After sunset, winds will gradually turn more
northwesterly as the pre-frontal surface trough exits to our east,
with strong northerly breezes set to arrive a few hours before
sunrise with the frontal passage itself and continue through most of
Saturday. Overall, this will be a dry frontal passage given the
scouring out of low level moisture which will occur today with the
strong west winds. However, there will be a low chance of a few rain
showers over the southeastern Rolling Plains late tonight through
early Saturday as the front collides with a bit of residual moisture
and some very modest midlevel isentropic lift. These showers will be
isolated in coverage and light in intensity though, with the bulk of
shower and storm activity well to our east. Otherwise, temperatures
on Saturday will be relatively cool compared to the past few days,
but will still be near average with highs generally in the lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

After a cool Saturday, the long term package will start off with a
warm and breezy Sunday. Mostly zonal flow will prevail aloft,
however an upper shortwave passing over the Rockies will trigger the
development of a surface lee low over northeastern NM/southeastern
CO. The lee low will tighten the pressure gradient giving way for
breezy south to southwesterly winds during the afternoon and evening
hours Sunday. The strongest winds are expected across the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains with speeds
up to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Breezy winds will give way to
patchy blowing dust across northern portions of the Caprock. South
to southwesterly surface flow will aide in warming temperatures to
the 70s across the region. Winds will weaken later in the evening as
the pressure gradient loosens with the lee low translating northeast
away from the region.

The main show will begin Monday with the return of precipitation
chances through much of the work week. A closed low spinning off the
coast of Baja Mexico will shift on shore through Monday and
translate over the Desert Southwest, reaching our region by mid-
week. As this upper system shifts, flow aloft will shift to the
southwest pulling in subtropical moisture to the mid to upper
levels. Upper ascent from the passage of this upper system over the
region in combination with the increasing moisture will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of the region
beginning Monday. The upper system will exit the region Wednesday,
however precipitation chances continue as a cold front swings
through the region later in the day Wednesday. Conditions look to
dry out Thursday as the post frontal high sets in over the region.

As for temperatures, we will see a slight warm up Monday into the
80s as breezy south to southwesterly winds prevail that afternoon.
Temperatures will cool through mid-week with the prolonged
precipitation chances and cloudy skies. However, as the upper low
exits the region, slight ridging will build to the southwest of the
Texas Panhandle giving way to west to northwesterly flow aloft
allowing temperatures to warm back into the 80s for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Strong west-southwest winds will continue at all sites through the
rest of this afternoon, and although VFR is expected to prevail,
some minor visibility restrictions from BLDU are possible especially
at KLBB and KPVW. Winds will gradually weaken and turn northwesterly
this evening, then turn northerly and strengthen again after 06z as
a cold front passes through the region. There is a small chance that
a brief period of MVFR CIGs develops behind the front on Saturday
morning, but probability of this occurring is quite low and VFR is
favored throughout this TAF period at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Critical fire danger will continue over most of the region through
the rest of today with sustained west-southwest winds of 25 to 35
mph across much of the forecast area and minimum RH values as low as
7 percent. Winds will weaken this evening while gradually turning
more northwesterly after sunset. A cold front will then pass through
the region after midnight, resulting in a shift to stronger north
winds with sustained speeds generally between 15 and 25 mph
overnight through much of Saturday. Despite the breezy northerlies
on Saturday, cooler temperatures and minimum RH values above 20
percent are expected to keep fire weather concerns relatively low on
Saturday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ021-022-027-028-
033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30