218
FXUS64 KLUB 131756
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1256 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

- Rain showers will persist this afternoon and evening. Accumulations
  are expected to remain light.


- Dry and warm weather is expected for the remainder of the next 7
  days with the possible exception of a few storms Thursday near
  the Texas and New Mexico state line.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Across the CONUS this afternoon, we have a number of storm
systems affecting the country as we continue to try to transition
out of summer here in the southern plains.  We have storm systems
situated over the Delmarva, another across far northern Ontario, and
perhaps our most impactful along the Pacific Northwest near the
OR/CA state line.  A minor batch of energy exists over central AB
though it is much more subtle. High pressure remains in firm control
over the south central part of the country with a 591 dam H5 dome
centered over SE TX.

The PacNW low will slowly drift down the west coast making its way
to the San Joaquin Valley by Late Tuesday.  By Wednesday evening,
this system will begin to eject into the Great Basin whilst
ingesting the AB disturbance as it moves into the far northern
plains by Friday.  All the while the Texas high continues to build
northward with persistent southwest flow. The southwesterly flow
regime over west Texas actually remains quite static until late
Wednesday when heights come down a few dam as the system makes its
point of closest approach INVOF the Great Salt Lake. A trailing
minor trough will drag NW of the FA on Thursday followed by
another, more pronounced trough approaching Friday afternoon. With
the passage of the trough, we`ll finally transition to
northwesterly flow aloft through the weekend as the high attempts
to become reestablished over northern Mexico with another pair of
lows off the Pacific coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

A frontal boundary has pushed into the northwestern half
of the CWFA by lunchtime which continues to overperform on southward
movement as compared to guidance. Given this tendency and the
expansive area of shower activity across the Permian Basin, will
keep the rain chances going in the southern Rolling Plains at least
into the evening tapering thereafter as it is expected that the
front will wash out and retreat with the warm air advection to the
south and above the boundary. Overall, we`re still expecting to
see a shift of the activity from southeast to northwest during the
afternoon persisting into the overnight hours. By in large, this
should remain largely low-end convective with limited thunder
potential though we are likely to be running quite close to the
threshold of thunder with thin elevated MUCAPE being indicated in
soundings. More than likely, residual precipitation after sunset
will have an even harder time of managing enough energy for
thunder and have removed mention of T overnight as the rain shield
continues translating northwestward. Amounts are expected to
remain quite light with sub quarter inch totals being the general
trend with many areas receiving much less.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The extended is a far bit quieter with the persistent
late summer/early fall warm and dry trend continuing save Thursday.
As mentioned in the synopsis, we`ll see a bit of energy glance the
area from the low up near KSLC and this could conceivably help to
generate some storms out in the western counties. While this is
not being handled in the NBM, both the GFS/ECM offer hints at the
potential along the TX/NM state line. Once again, not a heavy sort
of event with light QPF expected, but it is a shot at a little
moisture. Temperatures largely look to remain in the 80s with lows
in the 50s...running about 10 degrees warmer than seasonal norms.
There is some indication that by the middle of next week, we
could see a change with the MJO being in phase two back in the end
of September. That would hint at a front maybe a day or two
beyond the end of this forecast period, Tuesday or Wednesday of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

While VFR is generally expected to prevail this cycle, shower
activity could bring things down temporarily into MVFR and
possibly IFR territory briefly. Overall, we have been awaiting for
the shower band to move northward to affect KLBB and KPVW though
this has not yet materialized. This does still remain probable
this afternoon. Eventually, the showers should wane this evening
at all three sites but remain active to the north and northwest.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26