344
ACUS11 KWNS 150946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150946
TXZ000-OKZ000-151145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1298
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...central into western/southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417...

Valid 150946Z - 151145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417
continues.

SUMMARY...Some risk for strong to severe gusts and severe hail
probably will continue beyond daybreak with thunderstorms developing
into and across parts of western through southern Oklahoma.
However, it is not clear that an additional severe weather watch
will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Within a generally weak large-scale flow regime,
convectively augmented mid-level troughing continues to slowly dig
south-southeastward across parts of southeastern Kansas and eastern
Oklahoma.  Aided by persistent vigorous thunderstorm development,
supported by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection above the western
flank of a composite outflow, the outflow has been slowly spreading
west-southwestward across the Interstate 35 corridor of north
central Oklahoma.  This is likely to continue into
western/southwestern Oklahoma through and beyond daybreak.

As the nocturnal low-level jet weakens, forcing to overcome
mid-level inhibition and maintain convective development in the
presence of moderate potential instability remains unclear.  It is
possible that lift along an intersecting outflow emerging the Texas
Panhandle could maintain a corridor of vigorous thunderstorm
development, but this is not certain based on model output.

Regardless, barring more substantive cold pool strengthening with
the Texas Panhandle cluster than currently appears probable, there
is little to suggest potential for a substantive increase in severe
weather into mid morning.  However, a couple of locally strong to
severe gusts remain possible, along with some continuing risk for
severe hail in stronger cells.

..Kerr.. 06/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36430004 36139857 35279811 34699680 33919690 34479924
            35570028 36430004

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH