116
FXUS64 KMOB 292310
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
610 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Upper trof axis was positioned from the TN Valley to the southeast
U.S. to start the new week. Appears Tuesday will remain rain-free.
Wednesday, the upper pattern transitions as the 29.12Z global
spectral models suggest an elongated upper trof will become draped
along the southeast U.S. to the central Gulf coast to over the
Lower MS River Valley Wednesday through Friday. At the surface,
high pressure becomes better established over the Mid-Atlantic the
end of the week which favors a more established easterly flow.
Wednesday through Friday looks mostly dry but there could be a few
to isolated showers/storms here or there over the coastal
sections breaking out each afternoon with the narrow upper
trof/shear zone in place and pockets of perhaps sufficient
moisture caught up in the easterlies moving across. Meanwhile,
Tropical Storm Imelda over the northwest Bahamas lifts northward
today and strengthens to hurricane status and recurves sharply
east by Tuesday. Imelda continues east northeast over the west
Atlantic the remainder of the week.

Chance PoPs return along the Gulf coast by the weekend as a weak,
elongated west to east surface trof over the northern Gulf eases
closer to the coast.

Highs Tuesday/Wednesday ranging 85 to 90 trend down a category in
the lower/mid 80s by the weekend. Lows mostly in the lower/mid 60s
interior to 67 to 72 coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected
to continue through Wednesday night, but increases the latter half
of the week to a moderate to perhaps high risk Thursday. A high risk
of rip currents is anticipated for Thursday night through Saturday.
/10


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected into Tuesday. A light northeasterly
flow overnight increases to 5-10 knots on Tuesday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Impacts increase the latter half of the week. A tightening pressure
difference (gradient) between a large surface high setting up over
the Mid-Atlantic and a trof of low pressure over the central Gulf
results in strengthening easterly winds the latter half of the week.
The more established and long duration of the easterly fetch
supports much higher seas in the Thursday to Saturday time frame.
Due to the weather model run to run consistency, small craft
advisories will likely be required Thursday through Saturday. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  89  69  88  67  87  64  85 /   0   0   0  20  10  20  10  10
Pensacola   70  87  72  86  71  86  68  84 /   0   0   0  20   0  10  10  20
Destin      71  87  71  86  70  85  68  85 /   0   0   0  10   0  10  10  10
Evergreen   64  89  66  88  63  88  60  85 /   0   0   0  10   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  64  88  67  88  65  87  61  84 /   0   0   0  10   0  10   0   0
Camden      64  87  67  86  64  86  60  83 /   0   0   0  10   0   0   0   0
Crestview   64  86  66  87  64  86  61  85 /   0   0   0  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob