946
FXUS64 KMOB 211649
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1049 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1047 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Fog will likely redevelop across the area tonight. Dense fog
   development is possible and will be monitored.

 - A strong to severe storm can`t be ruled out this afternoon
   in southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama with a
   very low threat for a damaging wind gust or tornado. Locally
   heavy rainfall is also possible with any storms.

 - A Moderate rip current risk exists through Saturday for local
   beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1047 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

An active pattern will be in place over the CONUS through much of
the period. A shortwave trof progresses across the interior
eastern states through Saturday and becomes partially absorbed
into an upper trof further to the north. An associated surface low
brings a trailing cold front into the forecast area on Saturday
which continues into the northern Gulf Saturday night. A series of
disturbances moving across the region will support high rain
chances today mainly along and west of I-65, which taper off to
isolated to scattered convection mostly along and west of I-65
tonight. Patchy to areas of fog will likely develop across much
of the area again tonight, potentially becoming dense in some
locations. Isolated showers/storms are possible over the
northernmost portion of the area on Saturday, but otherwise dry
conditions are expected to follow through Monday.

An upper low meanwhile slowly advances across the Baja area and
into Arizona then lifts into the central states through Sunday
night and evolves into an open trof. This feature shears out
across the interior eastern states through Monday night while a
vigorous Canadian system dives into the northern Plains and leads
to a large and broad upper trof spanning the eastern and central
states by Wednesday. A surface low associated with this pattern is
expected to bring another cold front through the forecast area at
some point between Tuesday night into Wednesday. As the front
approaches and moves through, have gone with likely pops west of
I-65 for Tuesday with chance pops further to the east then chance
pops follow for Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected for
Thanksgiving Day, then may see some isolated convection develop
near the coast on Friday, but for the most part am anticipating
mostly dry conditions.

Lows tonight will be mostly in the mid 60s then Saturday night
will be cooler and range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60
at the coast. Lows Sunday night range from the mid/upper 40s well
inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Lows Monday night and Tuesday
night range from the mid/upper 50s well inland to the lower/mid
60s at the coast. Much cooler temperatures follow for Wednesday
night which range from around 40 well inland to near 50 at the
coast, then Thursday night will have lows ranging from the mid 30s
well inland to the mid 40s at the coast. Highs on Saturday will be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s, then highs on Sunday and Monday will
be in the mid to upper 70s. Highs on Tuesday range from the mid
70s to around 80, then Wednesday will be cooler and range from the
lower 70s well inland to the mid 70s closer to the coast. Highs on
Thanksgiving Day will be cool and range from the lower 60s well
inland to the mid/upper 60s closer to the coast. Highs on Friday
range from the lower 60s well inland to the mid 60s elsewhere. A
moderate risk of rip currents is in effect through Saturday, then
a low risk follows for Sunday and Monday. A Moderate risk of rip
currents is expected for Tuesday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

High coverage of showers with some embedded storms is anticipated
along and west of I-65 through much of the afternoon which then
diminishes by this evening. LIFR/IFR conditions are possible with
the showers and storms. MVFR/VFR conditions are otherwise expected
until LIFR to potentially VLIFR conditions in dense fog develop
across most of the area late tonight. The low ceilings and fog
dissipate Saturday morning leaving MVFR/VFR conditions. Southerly
winds 5-10 knots this afternoon diminish to a south to southwest
flow 5 knots or less tonight, then a southwest flow at 5-10 knots
follows for Saturday morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1047 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Patchy, locally dense fog development is possible late tonight for
bays and nearshore waters. Light to moderate southerly winds become
southwest tonight and westerly on Saturday. Winds shift to the north
Saturday night as a cold front moves through. A southeasterly flow
develops on Monday and becomes southerly on Tuesday. Winds shift to
the northwest on Wednesday as another cold front moves through. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  64  81  57 /  50  10  10   0
Pensacola   77  69  80  61 /  10  10  10   0
Destin      77  68  79  62 /   0  10  10   0
Evergreen   80  64  83  52 /  30  20  20   0
Waynesboro  78  62  81  52 /  80  20  10   0
Camden      77  63  80  51 /  60  30  20   0
Crestview   79  64  83  55 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$