699
FXUS64 KMOB 141724
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

An active pattern will persist through the next few days, as mid
level troughing maintains its hold on the weather pattern across the
region. As of this writing, isolated showers were noted right along
our coastline and into our marine waters, and a brief downpour is
possible through the next couple of hours, generally south of I-10.
Activity is expected to increase heading into the daylight hours, as
south to southwest flow prevails through the vertical column.
Moisture advection will continue, with dewpoints remaining in the
lower to mid 70s across much of the area. Although there`s very
little in the way of a prevalent surface boundary, outflow
boundaries from yesterday`s activity linger and will provide a focus
for convective initiation later this morning. The highest coverage
of thunderstorms will likely be this afternoon as we reach our peak
heating hours and the seabreeze lifts north providing the surface
forcing. The abundantly high moisture will allow for heavy rain in
some of the storms, and isolated flash flooding may occur in the
heavier downpours, especially in our flood prone areas. Severe
storms are not anticipated, though a few storms could produce gusty,
subsevere, winds. Much like a normal summer day, activity will
dissipate after sunset, as we lose daytime heating. Outside of
thunderstorms, hot and humid conditions will persist, with highs
warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will only
fall into the 70s.

The aforementioned trough will move eastward through the overnight
hours on Saturday, before the upper low becomes absorbed in the
longwave pattern. A secondary, southern stream trough will amplify
early Sunday morning as it moves into the Mississippi Valley,
providing a similar set up to today. Surface flow will remain
relatively weak and from the south, with southerly flow through the
vertical column. This will keep the high precip chances in the
forecast, with 70 to 80 PoPs for the afternoon. Confidence is not
overly high on this given the lack of surface forcing; however, the
past few days have proven that as the seabreeze lifts north in the
afternoon, thunderstorms will likely develop along the boundary and
then lift northward. We could then see more convection initiating on
those boundaries, making our coverage rather high. We`ll see almost
a rinse and repeat on Monday, as the forecast area remains on the
eastern periphery of the trough. Hazards also remain the same as
today, with localized flooding and generally subsevere winds
possible.

The remainder of the forecast period will feature above normal
precip chances, mainly during the afternoon. The trough will weaken
quite a bit by Tuesday; however, the forecast area will remain
situated between high pressure building to our west and the
subtropical high to our east. This will keep southwest flow through
the week, with scattered to numerous showers/storms in the forecast
each afternoon. While the highest confidence exists during the
afternoon when we reach our peak heating and the seabreeze comes
into play, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during the morning hours as well. Highs through the period will be
near seasonal norms, with highs near 90 and overnight lows in the
70s. One thing to note is that the ridge too our west may begin to
influence us a bit sooner than currently forecast, which would make
heat a concern. As of now, heat indices look to be in the 103 to 108
degree range by Friday, so it`s something to bear in mind as we head
through the new work week. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Developing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast
area bringing local MVFR conditions to some localities, and are
expected to continue through the afternoon into the evening.
General VFR conditions expected overnight, with local MVFR VISBYs
after 06z with possible fog development. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms developing near the coast late tonight into the
early morning will move inland by 18z, bringing local MVFR
conditions to the forecast area.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Scattered light showers will continue to move over the marine
zones this morning. Additional thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon. Otherwise, expect light onshore flow to
continue through the weekend and into early next week.
Occasionally moderate southerly flow is possible, especially in
the nearshore waters which will be influenced by the diurnal land
and sea breeze pattern. Winds and seas will likely be temporarily
higher in the vicinity of storms. /73

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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