089
FXUS64 KOHX 091717
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1117 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- High probability for a widespread hard freeze Sunday and Monday
  nights.

- Low to medium chance (30-50%) for light snow accumulation of a
  dusting to half inch across the Plateau Sunday evening through
  early Monday morning.

- Temperatures rebound to near normal values by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday Night)
Issued at 1007 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The cold front has cleared Middle TN, and current temperature
readings are generally sitting in the 40s across the area. Much
colder air will continue to seep into the area as Arctic air makes
its way southward. Temperatures will fall as the day progresses,
bottoming out in the 20s tonight/early Monday morning. Highs
Monday will only warm into the 30s to low-40s, and under clear
skies Monday night/early Tuesday morning, we`ll have our coldest
temperatures of this event with lows in the teens to low-20s.

Meanwhile, we`re still watching the potential for light snow this
evening and into Monday morning. There remains a low to medium
chance for light showers this afternoon through early Monday
morning. While these showers will start as rain, falling
temperatures will allow for a changeover to snow. While flurries may
fly outside of the Cumberland Plateau, any light accumulations of a
dusting to a half inch are still favored across the higher
elevations. Models show about a 20% chance that the Upper
Cumberland from about Monterrey and into Jamestown and Pickett
County picks up near an inch of snow. This may result in a few
slick spots where snow accumulates, but no major impacts are
anticipated. An upper-level low tracking through the area on
Monday will keep low rain & snow chances across the Plateau, but
still light accumulations should keep impacts at a minimum.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1007 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

If you`re not a fan of this Arctic blast, then the mid-week period
is for you. By Tuesday, the trough responsible for this colder air
will move out, and our surface winds become southerly. Warm air
advection will help highs warm into the 40s to low-50s Tuesday, but
temperatures will quickly rebound so that by Wednesday, highs are
back in the 60s for areas west of the Plateau. With dry northwest
flow aloft, dry and calm conditions are expected through the
remainder of the week. As for the next chance of rain, we`ll have to
keep an eye on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Low clouds across the area are resulting in a mixture of MVFR to
VFR cigs. There should be gradual improvement for BNA, MQY, and
CKV through the evening, but low cigs will likely continue
overnight for CSV and SRB. Light rain and snow showers are
expected to develop this evening for the Plateau, and PROB30
groups are present at CSV and SRB to account for this. Snow will
taper off early Monday morning, but a secondary burst of snow is
expected around to after 18Z. Otherwise, winds will stay
northwesterly with gusts of 20 to 25 knots persisting.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      52  26  40  24 /  10  10  10  10
Clarksville    48  25  41  23 /  10  10  10   0
Crossville     54  20  30  16 /  20  40  20  20
Columbia       52  25  40  21 /  10  10   0  10
Cookeville     53  22  33  19 /  20  40  20  10
Jamestown      53  20  30  19 /  20  60  30  20
Lawrenceburg   53  24  39  20 /   0  10   0  10
Murfreesboro   54  25  39  21 /  10  20  10  10
Waverly        47  24  39  21 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Clements