143
FXUS64 KOHX 021323
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
723 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 716 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Dry weather expected Tuesday night through Thursday with
  increasing rain chances Thursday night into Friday.

- Temperatures remain below seasonal norms for the next several
  days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

It ended up being a pretty wet night across Middle TN with only a
little bit of sleet being seen in our far northwest counties as
temperatures were just too warm. Rains have all but ended on the
Plateau, but clouds will be with us for most, if not the whole
day. That means there won`t be much warming at all today. Grab the
parka and a hat.

Our focus now turns to our next weather maker due in here Thursday
night. Latest data will arrive in a couple of hours and we`ll dig
into it with the full forecast package this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Our rainmaker is certainly providing some bright returns on radar
but, at least here at the office, only spitting out drizzle right
now. The air above us is certainly saturated as seen on satellite.
Mixed precipitation continues to be a possibility, but probabilities
continue. Right now, a winter weather advisory is in effect for our
northwestern counties for the wintry precipitation through 8am
Tuesday morning. Accumulations look to be minimal, with expected
snow totals under half an inch through Tuesday morning. Expect for
conditions to be slippery from the wintry precipitation, so plan for
extra time on the morning commute. Highs will not be much different
from the temperatures we`re seeing currently, only warming into the
mid 30s across the mid-state.

Once the backside of the trough moves out of our area, dry air will
be swift in taking its place. This will end precipitation, but some
snow flurries or grains cannot be ruled out as this transition
occurs in the afternoon. No impacts expected from these flurries.
Tuesday night looks to be bitterly cold temperature wise, with lows
in the low 20s to upper teens.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The pattern after this system will remain active in Middle
Tennessee. Another system at the end of the week and into the
weekend will end our brief cold and dry period, which will bring
more precipitation to the mid-state. QPF from this system looks to
be on the low side. Below- normal temperatures look to persist
through the forecast period as well, so it looks like winter has
firmly taken its place here in the mid- state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Low CIGs will stick round today, between 500 to 1500 ft.
Precipitation moves out of the area this morning making way for
drying conditions. Tonight, clearing skies will lead to fog
development. There is the potential for widespread IFR to LIFR VIS
after 06z tonight. Will need to access again with next TAF
issuance for better confidence on timing and coverage. For now,
highest confidence is along the Plateau.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      37  25  49  32 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    35  19  46  28 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     38  21  47  28 /  60   0   0   0
Columbia       39  21  49  30 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     37  22  45  29 /  60   0   0  10
Jamestown      36  22  45  28 /  60   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   39  21  49  30 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   38  22  48  29 /  20   0   0  10
Waverly        36  21  44  27 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Cravens