851
FXUS64 KOHX 051744
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1244 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

- Rain chances begin by daybreak Monday and continue through
  Wednesday morning. Tuesday and Tuesday night will bring the
  highest rain chances of 60-90% Severe storms are not expected.

- Cooler this week, especially late week when seasonally normal
  temperatures are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

High pressure continued its influence Sunday with mainly sunny
skies and warm temperatures. Big changes are on the doorstep with
a good chance for rain and cooler temperatures coming this week.
Model agreement has improved and confidence is increasing for all
of Middle Tennessee to receive a decent amount of beneficial
rainfall over the next couple of days.

For tonight, deep southerly flow will develop as high pressure
moves off to the east. Low rain chances will build primarily west
of I-65 late tonight through daybreak Monday, then chances
increase to 40-60% daytime Monday for areas west of I-65. Chances
will be low for areas east of I-65. The incoming surge of Gulf
moisture will allow PWATs to increase up to 1.75 inches which is
above the 90th percentile for this time of the year. Despite this
abundant moisture source, lift will be unimpressive on Monday, so
rainfall amounts will start out light.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Moisture advection continues into Tuesday with area-wide PWATs
ranging from 1.7 to 1.9 inches, well above the 90th percentile.
Forcing and instability will increase Tuesday into Tuesday night
ahead of a shortwave and cold front, so rainfall rates and
coverage will increase. By late Tuesday night, the chance for
rainfall totals exceeding one inch generally range from 40-60%
with the higher chances across the northwest half of Middle TN.
The deep moisture combined with several hundred J/kg cape through
the column could bring local moderate to heavy downpours. The NBM
chance of receiving more than 2 inches of rainfall is in the
20-40% range, so some spots may get significant relief from the
on-going dry pattern.

The bulk of the rainfall will shut off Wednesday morning with
passage of the cold front. Models have trended a little faster
with this passage. A good deal of cloudiness and a few showers
will linger through the day. The air mass change will be certainly
be felt with north winds and highs limited to the 70s.

Models have trended a little cooler for late week with near
normal temperatures expected. This includes lows in the mid 40s to
low 50s by next weekend. Highs will be mainly in the 70s, except
60s Plateau. A few little showers cannot be ruled out late week
as a couple of weak disturbances cross the region, but overall,
forecasts are pointing toward a lovely fall weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions today with some FEW to SCT mid-level cumulus clouds
this afternoon. SE winds have remained relatively light through
the early afternoon, but expect some gustier winds (up to 20 mph)
through the remainder of the afternoon across Middle TN. Showers
move into Middle TN from the south after 12z Monday. Mostly
general showers with a few isolated thunderstorms possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  84  69  82 /  20  40  70  70
Clarksville    65  83  66  79 /  20  60 100  90
Crossville     59  78  62  77 /  10  20  30  50
Columbia       65  83  67  82 /  20  50  50  70
Cookeville     63  81  65  78 /  10  30  40  60
Jamestown      60  80  63  77 /  10  20  40  60
Lawrenceburg   65  83  66  81 /  20  40  40  60
Murfreesboro   65  84  67  83 /  10  30  50  70
Waverly        65  81  66  78 /  20  60  80  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Cravens