513
FXUS64 KOHX 171731
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms continue to be the pattern for the
  upcoming week with low chances of severe weather and medium
  chances of flash flooding.

- Summer-like heat and drier weather makes an appearance across
  Middle Tennessee for next weekend. Heat indices climb to 100
  degrees Saturday through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Low clouds are our story once again for this morning. The UL trough
and shortwave should push east today, but still provide the forcing
for thunderstorms across the area. Again, a low chance of severe
weather, but flash flooding remains a concern. SPC has placed most
of our area in a marginal risk for severe weather today (level 1/5),
highlighting wind gusts as the most likely hazard. Daytime heating
will play a role in the thunderstorms again, so most likely time
will be in the afternoon and evening. With these storms, in addition
to wind gusts, most likely hazards will be lightning, and heavy
rainfall. PWATs from this morning`s sounding here at the office are
around 1.90", which is close to our daily max and above the 90th
percentile for today. This airmass is extremely moist, and we have
already had above average rainfall this summer, which is why we are
concerned about flash flooding in the area today. Be weather aware
and know your action plan if a flash flood warning is issued.

Wednesday will be a slight lull, in the terms it will be true
diurnal thunderstorm activity without any UL forcing or support.
However, Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be another
story. SPC has placed our NW counties in a slight risk for severe
weather (level 2/5) with a marginal risk (1/5) across the remainder
of the area. Looking at the CAMs, 2 waves are shown. The first line
moves along the KY/TN state line in the evening hours Wednesday, and
is not really a threat to the rest of middle Tennessee. The second
wave is overnight into Thursday morning, and affects the entire
area. It seems stronger in the guidance west of I-65, and then kind
of fizzles out as it moves east. Some guidance shows discrete storms
ahead of the main lines, which would cause more severe weather
issues, but wind is our main threat Wednesday evening into Thursday,
followed by large hail, and a low tornado threat at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

One more day of thunderstorm chances on Thursday after the morning`s
activity, but with the timing shift to be more of an overnight into
the morning event, we will have to see how much the atmosphere can
rebound into the afternoon. If there is enough rebound, we could see
isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the eastern part of the area.
Hazards with these cells will be lightning, heavy rain, and windy
conditions.

The weekend looks largely dry, but humid and hot. A stout ridge will
take hold over the southeast US over the weekend and into next week,
which will limit our rain chances but crank up those temperatures.
Highs look to reach the mid 90s, and the airmass will remain humid
over middle Tennessee, bringing about heat index concerns as they
could creep into the triple digits. We`re monitoring for heat issues
into the weekend, but with the temporal extent, hard to say for
certain now. It looks pretty likely though.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

While mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon
hours, scattered thunderstorms will lead to brief reductions in
cig/vis to MVFR. Have covered these with PROB groups through the
late afternoon hours. Showers and storms should exit Middle TN by
00-02Z. Southwest winds will gust 15-20 kts this afternoon before
relaxing to less than 10 kts overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  90  72  86 /  30  30 100  80
Clarksville    73  88  72  85 /  10  20  80  50
Crossville     66  83  67  79 /  70  70  80 100
Columbia       71  89  71  84 /  30  30  90  80
Cookeville     69  85  68  80 /  60  50  90  90
Jamestown      67  84  67  78 /  70  70  90  90
Lawrenceburg   70  88  70  83 /  40  30  80  80
Murfreesboro   71  90  71  85 /  40  40  90  90
Waverly        70  88  69  84 /  10  20  90  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Unger