Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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618 FXUS64 KOHX 051756 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1156 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1156 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025 - Low to medium chances for light precipitation on Sunday. - Continued below-normal temperatures are forecast through the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025 Weak surface high pressure will build over the region today into tomorrow with mainly zonal flow aloft. With high pressure building in we are seeing strong substance at 900 mb. This is keeping low level moisture in place and our low clouds. The back edge of the clouds are just off to our northwest and the question will be how far east does that push. The thinking is we will scatter out for a time this afternoon over our far northwest counties but remain locked in the clouds elsewhere. Will have to keep an eye on trends. It will be cool today with highs only in the lower 40s. Overnight stratus is likely and this will limit our dense fog potential but we will still see some reduction in visibility. Overnight lows will be cold in the mid 20s to lower 30s. If any areas do see dense fog it would be freezing fog and could cause some slick spots but this does look unlikely for tonight. Winds become southerly tomorrow and that will help us warm some with highs pushing back into the mid 40s to lower 50s. The cloud cover will mostly likely stick around throughout the day but we may see some breaks in the afternoon but confidence is low. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025 An upper level trough will dig out of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes on Sunday. This will continue southerly flow and warm highs a few more degrees pushing them into the low to mid 50s. The majority of the forcing with this system will remain to our north but it will push a cold front into our area later in the day Sunday into early Monday. This will bring a low to medium chance for light showers. The precip type is a little more straightforward with this system as temperatures aloft will be below freezing, won`t have to worry about freezing rain or sleet. Most of the precip will fall as a cold rain but can`t rule out some snow flakes mixing in Sunday night as surface temperatures fall. Accumulation looks very unlikely with the NBM only putting 10-20% chance of a dusting I-40 north. We dry out by Monday afternoon with cold air building in behind the front. Highs Monday fall back into the low to mid 40s. Broad high pressure builds over the east US Tuesday warming us back into the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper level trough will dig out of Canada into the Great Lakes mid to late week. This will bring low rain chances but there is quite a bit of uncertainty on timing and placement of this trough. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025 Low cigs will remain in place through the TAF period. For western terminals we should see IFR cigs rise to MVFR for a time this afternoon but will lower back down to IFR this evening and into LIFR overnight. LIFR cigs remain over the Plateau into tomorrow morning. Cigs will start to come up after 15z but will still remain in the MVFR/IFR category. Light northerly winds under 5 knots becoming more westerly this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 43 30 50 35 / 0 0 0 10 Clarksville 43 28 48 33 / 0 0 10 20 Crossville 40 28 45 29 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 42 28 50 32 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 40 29 46 31 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 40 27 45 29 / 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 42 29 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 42 29 49 32 / 0 0 0 10 Waverly 41 27 48 32 / 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Mueller