440
FXUS64 KOHX 011743
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1243 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

- High chance for rain late this afternoon through Sunday
  afternoon. Low chance for thunder.

- Dry most of next week.

- Temperatures below normal through Monday, gradual warming trend
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

An upper level low pressure system from the Mid Ms Valley will
move southeast, crossing Middle TN this weekend. Clouds were
already thickening across the area midday Saturday. Radar showed
light returns from the mid level clouds northwest of Nashville,
but so far surface reports are indicating only sprinkles. This
pattern will continue through most of this afternoon, but by late
day, measurable and more steady rain will begin to spread into our
northwest counties. The light rain will then spread area-wide
through tonight. We cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder late
tonight into Sunday morning as mid level lapse rates steepen under
the low pressure center, but no significant impacts are expected.
By the time the rain tapers down late Sunday, most areas will
have around one quarter to maybe one half inch.

A few light showers may linger into Sunday evening for the
Plateau, otherwise, surface high pressure will start to move in.
The partial clearing and light winds will set the stage for fog
late Sunday night into Monday morning, impacting the Monday
morning commute.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The work week may have a rather foggy start, otherwise we are
looking for mainly dry conditions through at least Thursday. The
week will start off cool, but temps will creep up to slightly to
the warm side of normal by midweek.

By the time we reach the weekend, a couple of troughs with surface
fronts will be on approach. The first is shown with scattered
light showers Friday into Saturday. The second looks stronger
with showers and some storms possible by Sunday. Nothing screams
severe wx at this point, but the system looks dynamic with a good
deal of wind energy, so it will need to be monitored for at least
some storm potential with gusty winds if enough instability can
develop ahead of its quick arrival.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Conditions this afternoon remain mostly cloudy but VFR. A few
light echoes have been moving across Middle Tennessee over the
past several hours but much of it likely isn`t reaching the
ground. A strong upper low is poised to swing across the region
overnight and tomorrow, bringing with it widespread, mainly light
showers and low ceilings. An inverted surface trough will
accompany this upper-level system, so winds will shift around to
the N/NW at most of the terminals. Rain will last into the day
tomorrow, and low ceilings will be slow to erode give the slow
movement of the upper low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      43  55  39  63 /  90  50   0   0
Clarksville    40  55  34  62 /  90  20   0   0
Crossville     41  52  37  57 /  70  60   0   0
Columbia       41  53  34  62 /  80  40   0   0
Cookeville     43  53  39  58 /  80  70   0   0
Jamestown      42  54  38  57 /  80  60  20   0
Lawrenceburg   41  52  34  61 /  80  50  10   0
Murfreesboro   43  53  38  62 /  80  60   0   0
Waverly        38  53  34  61 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose