484
FXUS63 KPAH 022343
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
543 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle and light rain will gradually diminish across the
  region this morning, but cloudy conditions will remain in
  place throughout the day.

- Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will arrive
  Tuesday (90-100% chance) as a north-south oriented line of
  showers and storms traverse the Quad State. The storms will be
  slow-moving, likely lingering into Wednesday. Forecast
  rainfall totals are in the 1 to 1.5 inch range. There is a
  marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms with damaging
  wind and isolated tornadoes the main concerns.

- South winds will become gusty on Tuesday with gusts in the 30
  to 40 mph range possible. There is a 60-90% chance of max wind
  gusts reaching or exceeding 30 mph on Tuesday.Stronger gusts
  will be possible in the line of storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Low overcast is hanging with us today amid a warm advective
layer about 925mb. Satellite shows drier air/better mixing just
southeast of the area and that should start to work into western
Kentucky and spread the rest of the area through late afternoon
but some overcast will likely persist across SEMO/Southern
Illinois much of the night.

The main focus of the current forecast is the very large and
deep trough ejecting off the Rocky Mountains in NM/CO this
afternoon. That trough is expected to continue to be booted
eastward by 100-110kt jet behind it. This swings the trough to a
negative tilt as it moves into the southern Plains and mid-
Mississippi Valley tomorrow afternoon. The jet-level ascent
picture develops to provide a parent surface low well to the
north but also would generate some troughing or a secondary low
near the area or perhaps slightly south to southeast of us in
the evening.

There is definitely some degree of severe thunderstorm potential
with the passage of the front in the afternoon and early
evening. Instability is the main limiting factor. Mid-level
lapse rates are quite poor owing to the moist/semi-
tropical airmass being dragged in ahead of the system. Low level
moisture return is limited by the southeast winds initially
drawing from relatively dry air over MS/AL. Dewpoints do work
into the low to mid 60s in most available guidance as richer
moisture eventually works into the low levels. This yields about
300-400 J/kg of entrainment factored CAPE as convection moves
into the area.

0-6km shear is about 40-50 knots with 850mb flow
increasing to 40 to 45 kts as well giving a pretty large
hodograph curvature. I am a little concerned the strong large
scale ascent from the negative tilt trough could cause lapse
rates to be steeper than modeled, although it would have a lot
to overcome to make for an appreciable increase in instability.
I expect convection may struggle and only be pseudo-surface
based but the shear will be strong enough we will have to watch
very closely through the day for any breakthrough severe risk
with tornado and wind the main concern. Will need to watch obs
trends and future CAM runs for any trends that might suggest
things going one way or the other. The background winds will be
strong and gusty 25-35 mph but for now with limited mixing I
think the odds of advisory level gusts (40 mph) are too low.
Locally heavy rainfall looks probable but the system will
probably be progressive enough given the dry antecedent
conditions to prevent a significant flood risk.

Behind the front cooler and relatively stable conditions with
seasonable temperatures look to set up shop. Another front looks
possible Sunday that seems to have a shot of colder air behind
it that might result in overnight frost/freeze conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

IFR-MVFR cigs are lifting from south to north this evening.
Winds increase out of the SSE/SE tonight, becoming breezy with
gusts of 20-30kts tomorrow. Rain moves in from the west later in
the TAF period, along with embedded thunder, reaching the
Mississippi River late afternoon. Cigs lower to MVFR with the
rain.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...ATL