883
FXUS63 KPAH 101221
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
621 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty southwest winds of 30-40mph shifting to the northwest
  can be expected through midday today with the passage of a
  cold front, gradually decreasing during the afternoon.

- There are small chances of light snow Thursday night in
  southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and portions of
  southern Illinois north of Route 13. Light accumulations,
  mainly in grassy areas, are possible north of Interstate 64,
  especially in southwest Indiana.

- After a brief warm up Friday, much colder air will spread
  across the region for the weekend, with the coldest conditions
  Saturday night into Sunday. Wind chills late Saturday night
  into early Sunday morning will be in the single digits down
  to around zero.

- A gradual warming trend will begin early next week, with small
  chances of light rain and/or snow Monday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

The latest surface map shows a cold front extending through
northwest Missouri into southeast Kansas. This front will move
through the PAH forecast area between 12z-18z. Gusty southwest
winds are expected ahead of the front, with peak gusts of
35-40mph right along and just behind the front as winds shift to
the northwest. We may see a few gusts just above advisory
criteria, but the window of peak gusts will be very brief. We
will continue to highlight gusts in an SPS, and will make
adjustments if necessary. Small chances of light rain will
accompany the cold front through mid to late morning, mainly in
southwest Indiana, southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky
south through the Pennyrile.

A weak warm front will lift into through our region late
Thursday, followed by a weak surface low moving through the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday. Chances of light snow are expected late Thursday night
into early Friday morning ahead of the surface low, mainly
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky and portions of
southern Illinois north of Route 13. The best chances of some
light accumulations, primarily in grassy areas, will be north
of Interstate 64 where low temperatures will drop to around 32
degrees. Temperatures Friday will quickly climb through the 30s
during the morning hours, so any accumulations will be short-
lived.

Winds will shift back to the northwest behind the Friday surface
low. Colder air will spread across the PAH forecast area Friday
night into Saturday. Another cold front will move through our
region Saturday, bringing in a surge of even colder air, and
potentially some flurries to far northern and eastern portions
of the PAH forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. Low
temperatures Saturday night will range from the upper single
digits near Interstate 64, to the upper teens near the southern
borders of west Kentucky and southeast Missouri. Minimum wind
chills late Saturday night into early Sunday morning will range
from around zero north 5 to 10 degrees south. Lows Sunday night
will be a couple of degrees warmer, and with light to calm
winds, wind chills will be near the actual air temperatures.

Temperatures will begin to moderate early next week as high
pressure moves off to our east and winds shift to the south
Monday and continue through Tuesday. The model blend persists
in producing some very low chances of rain or a wintry mix
Monday night, but there continue to be a wide variety of model
solutions, some of which keep our region dry through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Southwest winds at 10-20kts with gusts of 20-25kts will shift to
the west and northwest, increasing to 15-25kts with gusts to
25-35kts between 13z-18z. Winds will gradually decrease after
20z, with speeds at 5-10kts by 00z. Conditions at KPAH/KCGI will
be VFR through the TAF period. At KMVN/KEVV/KOWB, patchy light
rain is possible through 16z and conditions will be VFR, with
cigs becoming MVFR at KMVN around 17z, and at KEVV/KOWB between
20z-22z, and persisting through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST