698
FXUS63 KPAH 161815
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
115 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme heat warning conditions continue today with Heat
  Indices peaking in the triple digits up to near 115 degrees.

- At least a few thunderstorms are expected tonight and this
  evening ahead of a cold front. A few storms could be severe
  with damaging winds the main threat.

- Shower and storm chances return Wednesday and Thursday with
  some strong/severe thunderstorm risk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Dangerous heat and humidity persists today for one more day.
Temperatures are running slightly ahead of where they were
yesterday, with dewpoints sticking into the middle 70s. A cold
front currently working through IA/IL should bring a bit of a
respite tomorrow. In the meantime we will be watching for
showers and thunderstorms in the soupy airmass ahead of the
front.

Convective temperature is about 95 degrees and we are reaching
that over SEMO and towering cu appear to be responding. There
should be about 2000 J/kg available above a deeply mixed
boundary layer if parcels can keep going. With that much cu this
early in the day I tend to like the chances for a few storms to
get going by 3 to 5 pm. There is a more organized convective
complex over western IL ahead of the parent shortwave trough
over NW Missouri. The HRRR analysis is about 150 miles too far
west with the shortwave position and isn`t resolving this
convection well just yet. I think the overall solution with new
convection over Missouri upscaling into an MCS over the I-64
corridor looks reasonable, but maybe speed it up about 3 hours
from the HRRR solution which would put it in play for the region
by 6 to 9 pm or so. Strong DCAPE/low-level inverted V soundings
coupled with moderate westerly deep wind shear support an
elevated risk for damaging wind/downbursts with any storms that
get going, especially if they upscale into a mature MCS.

The front should be through the area fast enough to knock
everyone below heat advisory tomorrow. With a little less heat
and humidity behind the front. By Wednesday the subtropical jet
sinks a little further south which helps pull some of the soup
back into the area giving us shower and thunderstorm chances. A
more organized shortwave remains on track for Thursday. We
remain a little concerned about severe weather potential with
this feature with abundant moisture/instability coupled with a
favorable shear pocket. Some window for severe appears possible
Wednesday through Thursday and CSU-ML and CIPS analogs continue
to show some clustering of potential there as well. Wind would
be the primary concern.

ECMWF/GFS both show a stronger longwave trough for late next
weekend that is still trying to introduce cooler/drier
conditions but we are still yet to see a clear cold frontal
passage show up in the current deterministic runs and we
maintain max temps in the mid 80s through the end of the
forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Convection is the primary flight hazard through the next 12
hours. There is a complex east of Quincy, IL that could become a
factor at MVN and vicinity by 21z if it continues tracking that
direction. There are also some towering cumulus towers over
south central Missouri that seem to be highlighting an area
where the convective temperature is being reached. Highlighted
with prob30s the timing where the highly conditional convection
is most likely. Wind will be a concern with any thunderstorms
today.

Winds will be fairly light and a front moves in from the
northwest around daybreak shifting the direction to the
north/northwest at 6-10kts persisting through the rest of the
TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening
     for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG