263
FXUS63 KPAH 011146
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
646 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures will continue through Monday, with
  middle 50s for highs expected throughout the Quad State today
  and Sunday. Frost and freeze conditions will likely become
  more widespread across the Quad State early Sunday, and
  especially early Monday. A Freeze Warning has been issued for
  Carter and Wayne counties in Missouri early Sunday, and the
  the remainder of the Freeze Watch is still in effect.

- Rain chances continue to trend upward Saturday (60-90%). Most
  of the region should receive at least some light rain, and
  southern and eastern portions of the region could see a
  quarter to a half inch.

- South winds return next week, and temperatures will climb back
  above normal Tuesday and stay there for the remainder of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

After collaborating with WFOs Springfield and St Louis, we have
upgraded the Freeze Watch for late tonight to a Freeze Warning
for Carter and Wayne county in southeast Missouri. This area is
most likely to drop below freezing for several hours and could
drop into the upper 20s. Elsewhere in the Watch area, conditions
remain very iffy for freezing conditions. However, it is
certainly still a possibility, so we left the remainder of the
Watch in effect and will let the day shift decide if any
additional areas need to be upgraded.

The primary concerns for the freezing potential tonight are sky
cover and dewpoints. It is still uncertain how far east and
south through the Quad State, skies will clear behind today`s
storm system. Also, surface dewpoints may struggle to get to the
freezing mark or below, especially where there is significant
rainfall today. Confidence is high that winds will be light or
calm tonight, so where skies clear, good radiational cooling is
expected. Stay tuned for further adjustments to the Freeze
headlines later today.

The forecast is still on track for today`s storm system. There
may be some light rain reaching the ground in southeast Missouri
early this morning, but the primary rainfall is expected to
develop just before noon over southeast Missouri and then
spread eastward through most of the region this afternoon and
evening. QPF has trended downward a bit from the previous
forecast. As much as a third of an inch is possible over the
Kentucky Pennyrile, while much of southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois may struggle to reach a tenth of an inch. The
steady rainfall will likely push east of the area by midnight.
Given the lack of moisture and any surface reflection with this
storm system, the downward trend in QPF seems reasonable.

Highs Sunday will be in the middle 50s throughout the Quad
State, while lows Sunday night will drop into the lower and
middle 30s. There could be a light freeze in some locations
early Monday morning, but frost should be widespread across the
region. Temperatures on Monday will climb into the lower 60s,
which is just below normal. However, with the dry air still in
place, lows Monday night should drop into the middle and upper
30s, resulting in the potential for more frost in some
locations.

The flow aloft next week will be nearly zonal, and winds will
return from the south early on. One disturbance will push a weak
cold front through the region Wednesday. South winds will
increase significantly ahead of the it Tuesday into Tuesday
night, but moisture return will be limited and no precipitation
is expected.

Another storm system will impact the region Friday, and this one
looks like it could bring a nice band of rain through the Quad
State. Ahead of it, even stronger south winds are expected
Thursday into Thursday night. At this time, instability is hard
to find, so no thunder is in the forecast, but this could
change with time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Light rain will develop by late morning over southeast Missouri,
and then shift eastward across the rest of the area this
afternoon and evening. It will persist for a few hours at KCGI
and KPAH and then set in at KEVV, and especially KOWB. MVFR
conditions are likely with the more persistent rains. KOWB could
see MVFR conditions linger through the night even after the
rain has ended. KMVN may remain dry and should stay VFR through
the entire forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     ILZ075-076-080>082-084>086-088-089-092-093.
MO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     MOZ076-086-087-108>111.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ100-107.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS