628
FXUS63 KPAH 262014
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
314 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A final line of storms is expected to move southeast through
  the region this evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and
  tornadoes will remain a threat tonight.

- The flood threat remains as many areas saw several inches of
  rainfall. The flood watch is unchanged.

- A much needed respite from the active weather pattern is in
  store for the bulk of next week, as we return to drier weather
  and near normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Visible satellite shows extensive clearing taking place behind a
convective complex now moving across central Kentucky. While
convective overturning has been evident over the past few hours,
surface observations are beginning to show boundary layer recovery
taking place. Most, if not all available guidance shows scattered
development of showers and storms to the west and northwest this
afternoon. The atmosphere is expected to continue to strongly destabilize
with CAPE values reaching upwards of 3000+ J/kg. The
expectation is that updrafts will be able to take advantage of
this instability and could quickly become severe. The
thermodynamic and kinematic fields that these storms will be
moving into will be more than sufficient for severe weather into
the evening hours. All hazards will be possible with these
storms with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes possible.
The main questions surrounding this evening is convective mode,
specifically how long discrete convection lasts before becoming
linear. A strong tornado threat will especially be associated
with any supercell mode, with the primary hazard becoming
widespread damaging winds with linear modes.

The flood threat will also continue tonight with heavy rainfall
rates. Antecedent conditions will be favorable with recent radar
estimates of 3-5 inches of rainfall across portions of SE MO and W
KY. Any additional heavy rainfall will only aggravate ongoing
conditions and could lead to further flash flooding. The flood watch
will continue through 12Z Mon.

Surface high pressure builds across the region Monday bringing much
drier weather to much of the work week. Cooler temperatures and
lower relative humidity are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. High
pressure eventually moves eastward across the Great Lakes with
an upper level disturbance moving across the northern plains
bringing weak height falls across the area. This will bring a
slight increase in PoPs for Friday and into the weekend.
Temperatures will also increase back to near or above normal
with southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Skies are clearing behind the convective complex now moving into
central Kentucky. Another round of SHRA/TSRA will move into the
region this afternoon and evening. Flight reductions in
CIGS/Vsby are expected with this line. Late tonight, conditions
dry out for the remainder of the TAF period. South winds this
afternoon will veer toward the west tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through Monday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD