157
FXUS63 KPAH 061724
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1124 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- We will see a warm up this weekend, though temperatures will
  still be below normal.

- Small rain chances return late tonight into Sunday morning,
  and again Sunday night with a rain/snow mix, but amounts will
  be very light with no impacts expected.

- After a cool down for Monday, there will be another warm up
  for mid week.

- We will see a return of precipitation chances Wednesday
  through Thursday, and possibly a wintry mix for Thursday into
  Thursday evening for southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky
  and portions of southern Illinois.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Weak surface low pressure to our west will keep winds light
southerly across our region today, resulting in a warming trend
through the weekend. High temperatures today will be in the 40s,
and Sunday in the middle 40s to around 50 degrees. Lows tonight
will remain at or a few degrees above freezing across most of
our region.

By late tonight into early Sunday, the surface low will be
weakening as it moves east into the middle Mississippi valley.
A weak upper level wave will follow Sunday night. The model
blend generates very light rain showers with the surface low,
primarily along and east of a line from Mount Vernon Illinois
and Land Between the Lakes late tonight and Sunday morning. With
the upper wave Sunday night, colder air will be spreading into
the region, and any precipitation will be flurries or light rain
showers changing over to flurries. These chances will be focused
in areas along and east of the Mississippi River. With little
moisture to work with, actual amounts of any precipitation type
will be very light, and impacts will be unlikely.

After a brief return of of very chilly conditions Monday, with
highs in the 30s, we will see a significant warm up Tuesday and
Wednesday. Breezy south winds ahead of a weak cold front are
expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, then winds will shift to
the northwest Wednesday with the passage of the front. Isolated
to scattered light showers are possible with the cold front,
mainly east of the Mississippi River, Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Amounts will be light, and precipitation may mix with or
change over to light snow late Wednesday night as colder air
moves in. A stronger surface low will quickly follow this
system, and precipitation chances will increase Thursday,
continuing to be focused east of the Mississippi River. With
colder air in place, a mix of rain and snow will be possible
mainly in southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky and north of
Route 13 in southern Illinois. If precipitation can linger into
Thursday evening, a dusting of snow accumulation in southwest
Indiana and northwest Kentucky would not be out of the question.
Timing and moisture availability are still uncertain, but at
this point any amounts will be minimal. Dry high pressure and
cold temperatures will build in for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The IFR cloud deck over PAH and OWB is slowly eroding and
scattering out on satellite this afternoon and they should be
VFR soon. Some high cirrus may move in this evening before the
IFR cloud deck builds back in overnight. Winds will be light and
variable but generally switching around to the south. Didn`t
put lower vsbys in the TAFs for tonight because of higher
uncertainty, but the southerly flow could lead to some warm air
advection that could make for a similar morning to this morning
where there is some light fog with the lower stratus.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...HICKFORD