047
FXUS63 KPAH 051813
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
109 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet weather remains on track Monday into Tuesday with
  cumulative average rainfall amounts in the 1-2 inch range.
  Locally higher and lower amounts are possible.

- A dry and more seasonal temperature pattern emerges for the
  latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A nice moisture surge from wrap-around flow will occur ahead of
our next approaching weather system, driving dew points upwards
into the upper half 60s by Monday and even flirting with 70F by
Tuesday. Little instability/shear means what develops will be
mainly rain storms, and NAEFS-ESAT continues to ping 2-2.5
standard deviations above normal for 90th+ percentile PW`s that
the ensembles model. Efficient rains over this 48 hour period
equates to healthy 1-2" amounts on average; the Euro remains a
little wetter, suggesting localized higher totals are possible,
so we continue the low end marginal risk on flooding for that
isolated spot potential, but mostly, it`ll be a welcomed
rainfall spread out over enough time to not cause widespread
issues.

With the additional clouds from rain, the diurnal spread in
temps will narrow Monday-Tuesday, while remaining warm/humid.
After the system completes its passage Tuesday night,
cooler/drier high pressure circulated air over the back half of the
week makes for a seasonally pleasant 70s/50s (even some 40s),
moderating to around 80F for highs by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

SCT bases 5-7K FT AGL may temporarily carry CIGS, mainly south,
during peak heatingbut should disperse with loss of fuel/sunset.
Time/height cross sections time lowering bases into the terminal
forecasts late tonight-early tmrw morning, with low VFR CIGS
anticipated as rain chances onset; these low chance probability
showers toward the end of the planning phase of the forecast may
also carry temporary VSBYS restrictions to MVFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$