Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 140430
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1130 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 829 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

No changes anticipated at this time for the remainder of the first
period (tonight`s) forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

A weak wind shift will enter into the northern part of the CWFA
next 24 hours, muted by high pressure that will be the dominant
weather feature. Dry weather will continue through Monday night.
The temperature forecast will follow typical local fall bias. We
will err on the high side of guidance during the day (with sun),
and lower at night. We used the NBM for temps through Monday night
as it picks up on this. Tuesday through Tuesday night, a sharp
upper level trof will move from the northern Plains to the Great
Lakes. An associated cold front will move through Tuesday evening.
Moist advection and increasing instability with the front means a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. We do not anticipated
significant QPF, or mass coverage. But the trend in the models is
such that adjusting PoPs up a bit is warranted. The time frame of
best chances will be Tuesday afternoon and evening. The activity
will depart our eastern counties overnight. Also, we upped winds
over the NBM forecast for Tuesday night in the wake of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Surface high pressure will be in place across the middle Mississippi
and Ohio valleys for mid to late week.  Dry conditions and clear to
mostly clear skies will prevail.   North to northwest winds on
Wednesday into Thursday will keep temperatures below seasonal
normals.  A return of southerly winds late Thursday into Friday as
the high moves east will result in readings warming back to seasonal
values.

With the high moving east of our region, models show a weakening
cold front moving toward and across our region late Friday night
into Saturday.  This feature will give us small chances of showers
and a few thunderstorms.  A surface low and deepening upper level
trof over the Rockies/Central Plains will approach the middle and
upper Mississippi valley Saturday night into Sunday. Increasing
moisture ahead of the system will result in gradually increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night and
especially Sunday.  Initially there are some timing differences with
the onset of decent precipitation chances, and thus kept pops in the
slight category Saturday night.  Better model agreement occurs by
Sunday and beyond the current forecast period, so chances will
increase west to east on Sunday. South flow will keep temperatures
above normal through the weekend despite increasing clouds.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Surface high pressure will dominate the region through the 06Z TAF
period. Clear skies and light and variable winds will be the rule.
Guidance has backed off on the fog potential at KCGI, but it
still cannot be completely ruled out there or at KMVN.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS


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