Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 251146
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
646 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Scattered to numerous mainly light rain showers will continue to
progress southeast across most of the region along and ahead of a
passing weak frontal boundary early this morning. While an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out, we`ve opted
to remove its mention from the forecast at this time. In the wake
of the front, a northwest to southeast clearing trend will occur
through the morning into the early afternoon. This will allow for
a return to abundant sunshine that will help to warm temperatures
into the 70s despite northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Dry conditions and a warming trend are expected through the rest
of the short term as an upper level ridge begins to build in by
Monday. Low level southerly winds will take hold on Sunday and
only strengthen on Monday as the pressure gradient tightens to the
northwest of surface high pressure over the southeastern U.S. For
our region, this means a warming trend as high temperatures push
the 80 degree mark on Sunday, then surge well into the 80s by
Monday. Lows in the 40s tonight should moderate into the upper 50s
to lower 60s Sunday and Monday nights. We`ll need to keep an eye
on Monday as winds are forecast to come close to Lake Wind Advisory
criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

There is very good agreement amongst the medium range guidance for a
prolonged period of dry and warm weather due to a persistent upper
ridge over the Quad State region.

Variability exists in the guidance mainly with respect to the
amplitude of the surrounding troughs. The range of solutions does
include some impact on our region. A weak short wave trough over the
southern high Plains Tuesday morning could lift far enough northeast
to bring a few showers to western portions of southeast Missouri
Wednesday into Thursday. This is mainly a GFS solution, as the
operational runs of the EC have been consistent in keeping our
entire area dry, and the 18Z ECENS showed no support for the wet GFS
solution. In deference to the GFS we will have a small chance of
showers over the western 4 counties in southeast Missouri Thursday
afternoon.

The other potential impact to our region is with respect to the
intensity and speed of cooling due to high pressure Thursday through
next Saturday. The ECMWF has been consistent in developing a closed
low in the base of the eastern trough and retrograding it over the
southeast states. This more aggressively pushes surface high pressure
southwest over our region, resulting in a more significant cool down
to near normal levels Friday and next Saturday. This forecast splits
the difference, but does reflect a cool down to normal levels by
next Saturday. We won`t be surprised if the forecast trends cooler
quicker late next week.

Temperatures will start out well above normal Tuesday with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. They will trend very slowly cooler through the
week, but will remain above normal through at least Thursday, before
trending to near normal by next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Scattered showers accompanying a frontal passage will taper off
through mid morning. VFR ceilings, mixed with spotty MVFR in the
KEVV/KOWB area, will gradually clear by midday, followed by clear
VFR conditions through tonight. North/northwest winds 5 to 10
knots today will become light and variable tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RJP


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