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000
FXUS63 KPAH 301912
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
112 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A disturbance will bring widespread moderate rain to the Quad
  State, late this afternoon through early Friday.

* Rainfall amounts will range from around a quarter of an inch over
  the Pennyrile to around three quarters of an inch over southeast
  Missouri and southern Illinois. Most of the rain will fall
  tonight.

* Confidence is low to medium, but a couple disturbances could bring
  some light rain to the region Saturday night into Sunday and again
  Monday night into Tuesday.

* Temperatures will be at or above normal through the next 7
  days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

An upper-level storm system is expected to shift from near the Four-
Corners region of the country this morning to northern Missouri late
tonight into Friday morning. As this happens, a surface low will
form over the Panhandle of Texas this afternoon before lifting
through central Missouri and gradually filing through the same time
period. Ahead of the surface low, Gulf Moisture will steadily
increase across the area on WAA. Isentropic upglide will rapidly
increase this evening into the early overnight hours before
diminishing late tonight. The combination of the upglide and broad
lift on the left-exit region of an upper jet to the southwest of the
area, will lead to widespread rain pushing into the Quad State from
southwest to northeast. A rumble of thunder is possible, but the
chances are very low. This will gradually diminish overnight into
Friday morning as the better forcing diminishes and the deeper
moisture exits the area. Some drizzle or very light rain showers and
some patchy fog may linger into Friday afternoon as the moisture
scours out. Gusty winds will be somewhat of a concern with gusts
approaching 25 to 30 mph late this afternoon and tonight. There is a
very stout temperature inversion, so the strongest wind gusts will
likely remain elevated; although, a stronger gust or two may come
down where rain is heaviest.

As far as precipitation totals go, ensemble guidance suggest that
nearly all of the CWA will see at least a quarter inch of QPF;
however, when looking at a half inch or more, the best chances
appear to be across southeast MO into southern IL. Probabilities
point to about a 50 to 60 percent chance of seeing a half inch of
rain over western KY and around a 80 to 90 percent chance over
southeast MO/parts of southern IL/southwest IN. Those locations would
also have the best chance of seeing around three quarters of an inch
(roughly 30-50 percent).

After this system departs to the northeast, two more light
rainmakers will brush through the area Saturday night into Sunday
morning and again Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will be a
result of a couple upper-level disturbances rotating through the
area and a cold front passage Tuesday. The lower confidence in any
light rain occurring is largely due to a lack of moisture for each
system. Again, not out of the question, but probabilities appear to
be fairly low at this time. The blend of guidance shows the low end
probabilities around 20 to 30 percent for each of the aforementioned
time periods.

Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above normal
for this time of year. For comparison, normal highs are in the low
50s and normal lows are in the low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Clouds will gradually thicken throughout the day, becoming
MVFR/IFR tonight into Friday morning. Rain will also overspread
the TAF sites from southwest to northeast later this afternoon
through tonight. Patchy fog with visibility around 2 to 5 miles
will develop as the rain moves in this evening. Otherwise, south
to southwest winds will gust to around 20 kts through much of
this issuance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC