Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 022308
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
608 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022

During the short term forecast period, omega block ridging is
expected to continue, as a cutoff low with remnant moisture from
Ian remains stalled over the Mid-Atlantic. The second trough will
move from the Mountain West today into the Dakotas by Tuesday. In
the middle, high pressure remains over the Midwest. Winds out of
the NNE today will shift towards northeasterly for the start of
the week. The only weather hazard in the short term forecast is
elevated fire conditions due to dry fuels, low RHs, and breezy
winds, which is elaborated on more in the fire weather section.

Dew points and RHs were nudged slightly higher for this afternoon
but remain well below model consensus, and continue to track the
thinking that there would be little difference in mixing today vs
yesterday in the southwestern half of the CWA while the
northeastern half will see comparatively higher RHs relative to
yesterday. Moisture variables were dropped towards the 25th
percentile tomorrow in anticipation of a smaller model
overestimate relative to today/yesterday.

Highs today will reach the upper half of the 70s with a few
locations getting to 80. Northeasterly winds should continue to
keep highs mainly in the 70s Monday and Tuesday. Lows tonight will
be in the 40s, varying significantly depending on which locations
drop to calm winds. With winds trending lighter early in the
week, lows in the lower 40s are likely to become much more
widespread Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022

The blocking pattern is expected to end Wednesday as the Mid-
Atlantic closed low accelerates northeastwards. This will allow
for the shortwave ridge axis to move into the Ohio River Valley
while the Northern Plains shortwave low moves into the Midwest.
Models bring a stronger low pressure in Canada southeastward
towards Ontario, leading to a dissipation in the leading low near
the Quad State Wednesday night. The cold front pushes through
Thursday with the stronger low moving through the Great Lakes.
Models are coming into better agreement on dry weather Thursday
afternoon due to the very dry air ahead of the front, though a
small portion of ensemble members include a few sprinkles or
couple hundredths of an inch of light showers. Winds increase
behind the front, resulting in breezy conditions Friday as cold
air moves in. The weekend will have lighter winds, potentially
shifting to a more southerly component on Sunday.

Midweek highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will drop
significantly following Thursday`s dry cold front, with highs in
the 60s Friday and Saturday. Lows trend similarly, in the upper
40s to lower 50s ahead of the cold front to the upper half of the
30s Friday and Saturday nights. If cold air advection is strong
enough, areas of frost will be possible in portions of the Quad
State.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022

Not much change in the forecast. VFR conditions will prevail
through this issuance, with the main impacts being afternoon/early
evening wind gusts to 15-20kts. Winds will diminish and become
light after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022

Dew points for the mid afternoon hours should mix down, with RH
values dropping as low as 20-25 percent for portions of Southeast
Missouri and Western Kentucky. The rest of the Quad State will
have RH values fall to around 30 percent. Winds will be breezy,
gusting to 15-20 mph out of the NNE today. Fuel moisture is well
into the single digit percents for many RAWS sites.

Early in the week, winds will be lighter but RH values will remain
low, especially late Tuesday to Wednesday as a pocket of dry air
moves into the area from the Great Lakes. Following a dry frontal
passage on Thursday, providing no relief to the low fuel moisture
levels, winds will increase for the end of the week, but the
cooler temperatures should keep afternoon RHs a little higher.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATL
LONG TERM...ATL
AVIATION...KC
FIRE WEATHER...ATL


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