350
FXUS61 KRLX 071858
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
158 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance arrives late tonight into Monday bringing accumulating
snow to portions of the area southeast of the Ohio River. Dry Tuesday.
A warmer, breezier system impacts the region by midweek, colder thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 920 AM Sunday...

The forecast remains on track, with a mainly dry Sunday ahead
outside of the potential for an isolated sprinkle or two.

As of 634 AM Sunday...

Added patchy drizzle for most areas through this afternoon, and
removed FZRA from forecast. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 202 AM Sunday...

Surface high pressure shifting east will maintain dry, mostly cloudy
conditions today. A decaying low-pressure system arrives this
evening, pushing a moisture-starved cold front through the region.
This will result in low ceilings and light precipitation, which will
transition to light snow tonight due to strong cold air advection.
Highs this afternoon will generally be in the 40s, and lows in the
20s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 202 AM Sunday...

Lingering snow showers, mainly along the mountains, will gradually
end Monday afternoon. Most areas will see accumulations under 1
inch, though the central mountains may see high-end localized
amounts of 2 to 3 inches.

Temperatures will plummet behind the cold front on Monday. Highs
will struggle to reach the mid 30s in the lowlands and the low 20s
in the northeast mountains. Monday night will turn very cold, with
lows dropping to the lower 20s in far southern WV and SW VA, and
into the teens across SE Ohio and northern WV. Any remaining
mountain snow showers will end quickly Monday night as the base
of the trough exits the region.

On Tuesday, high pressure building along the eastern mountains will
create southwest breezes, warming temperatures back to normal levels
(40s in the lowlands and upper 20s in the mountains).

By late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front associated with a
strong clipper system tracking across the Great Lakes will bring the
next chance for precipitation. Precipitation will start as liquid,
transitioning into a wintry mix Wednesday night and Thursday.

A warmer, breezier system impacts the region by midweek. Expect
near to above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 202 AM Sunday...

A series of disturbances will move through our area towards
the end of the week. Thursday will likely see a sloppy mix of
rain and snow for most of us, with all snow expected in the
northeast mountains. Much colder air rushes in Thursday night,
turning any leftover precipitation to snow by Friday.

Prepare for a deep freeze heading into the weekend. Highs on Friday
will struggle to reach the mid 30s. By the weekend, temperatures
drop even further, with daytime highs only in the low to mid 20s for
the lowlands and dipping into the teens or single digits in the
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...

Widespread VFR conditions continue across the area into tonight
ahead of the next disturbance. Flight conditions will then
gradually deteriorate through the night with lowering CIGs
(MVFR/IFR/LIFR), along with MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions
(southeast of the Ohio River) as a rain/snow mix transitions to
mainly snow. Snowfall and associated restrictions will persist
through the end of the TAF period, with the worst conditions
being expected at BKW/CRW. A return to VFR could occur across
the far north (CKB/PKB) by the end of the TAF period, although
confidence in this remains low.

Light and variable flow today will become NNE/NE tonight and
remain as such through the end of TAF period. Breezes up to ~
15kts could occur from time to time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through this evening, medium thereafter.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions tonight
into Monday associated with snow may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in snow and/or low stratus into
Monday night southeast of the Ohio River, and then again Wednesday
night and Thursday (area-wide) with a rain/snow mix with the
next system.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Monday for
     WVZ015-024>028-033-034-515>524.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Monday for
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...GW