272
FXUS61 KRLX 082207
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
507 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The snowstorm exits this evening. Cold tonight, but a bit
milder and dry Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday. A
clipper crosses toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 505 PM Monday...

Allowed western portions of the Advisories expire but extended
a northern portion of it in central WV, that was also expiring
at 5 PM, until 7 PM. Also updated PoPs to account for a slower
exodus of the snowstorm this evening. Will also issue a Special
Weather Statement along the northwest fringes of the remaining
Advisories for refreeze upon nightfall this cold evening.

As of 1225 PM Monday...

Winter weather headlines remain in effect this afternoon and
evening for southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
models show the snow tapering off from west to east this
afternoon and evening. After the snow tapers off, a high
pressure system will provide dry weather for the remainder of
tonight and Tuesday.

NOTE: Temperatures this evening will become cold enough that any
water on roads will freeze. This could cause hazardous road
conditions on untreated roads even after the snow has ended.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Monday...

A system will move through the Great Lakes area on Wednesday,
with a trailing cold front pushing through the region. This will
generally create a rain scenario in general, although higher
elevations of the West Virginia mountains may remain snow.
Colder air will move in behind the front Wednesday night with
gusty winds, providing an upslope snow situation for Wednesday
night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM Monday...

A series of clippers will then effect the area for Thursday
night into the weekend. Models struggle on the timing and
placement of these systems, leading to a low confidence in the
forecast. It should also be noted that there are significant
differences in the models regarding the intensity of the colder
air moving into the region as well.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Monday...

Snow this afternoon from EKN to north of HTS and southward will
cause IFR/LIFR conditions. The snow will taper off from west to
east later this afternoon and evening. North of the snow,
expect VFR conditions. As the snow tapers off, conditions will
improve to MVFR or VFR conditions, with the exception of the
southern West Virginia mountains and southwest Virginia, where
some IFR could remain overnight.

Tuesday morning, all locations should improve to VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow restrictions ending could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible area-wide Wednesday night through
Thursday in a rain to rain/snow mix, and then in mainly snow by
Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for WVZ024-
     025-028-033-034-518-520>524-526.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for WVZ015-
     026-027-515>517-519.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ016-
     018.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM
NEAR TERM...RPY/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...RPY