740
FXUS61 KRLX 011026
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
526 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure persists today, then a system brings wintry
weather tonight into Tuesday. High pressure again mid week. More
active pattern resumes late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Chilly and dry today.
* Wintry mix spreads across the area tonight.
* A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of the
  area where impacts from snow and ice are most likely.

High pressure skating overhead will support dry weather through
the day amid slowly eroding cloud cover. This brief reign of
dry weather will come to an end as an approaching upper level
trough and surface low spread precipitation across the area
roughly from southwest to northeast tonight.

Daytime temperatures will be chilly, with highs hovering in the
30 to 40 degree range in the mountains and mid 30s to 40s in
the lowlands. Temperatures then lower into the 20s to 30s
overnight.

For most of the area, precipitation is anticipated to take the
form of snow or freezing rain; however, slightly warmer
temperatures should mainly result in rain across portions of
the southern coalfields, southwest VA, and even part of the I-79
corridor.

Best potential for a few inches of snow will be in southeast
Ohio and the higher elevations of the northeast mountains,
though lesser amounts could be more widespread. Meanwhile,
highest confidence in ice accumulations exists along the eastern
slopes of the WV mountains, with slightly less confidence in
amounts across northeast KY, southeast OH, and western and
northern WV.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late tonight
through early Tuesday afternoon for locations where impactful snow
or ice accumulations are most likely to occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Winter weather continues into Tuesday.
* High pressure builds in for Wednesday.

A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain continues into
Tuesday as a low passes to the southeast Tuesday morning.
Although precipitation coverage should diminish behind the low
Tuesday afternoon, some upslope precipitation could persist
until an upper trough completes its passage over the area that
evening. High pressure then builds in from the southwest,
prompting drier conditions through mid week.

High temperatures should range from low 30s to low 40s on
Tuesday, then 30s in the mountains and mid 30s to 40s in the
lowlands on Wednesday. Both Tuesday night and Wednesday night
will be cold with low temperatures diving into the teens to low
20s in the mountains and 20s in the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Key Point:
* Mostly dry Thursday, more active to end the week.

Much of the area remains dry through Thursday, though there is a
small chance that a passing cold front could spawn a snow shower
or two in the northeastern part of the CWA that morning.
Better precipitation chances arrive with a low passing to the
southeast and a shortwave moving overhead late this week. The
more active pattern then continues as another system approaches
from the west for Sunday.

Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal through
the weekend despite a subtle late week warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 525 AM Monday...

MVFR ceilings will be slow to improve this morning, but are
projected to lift to VFR for the afternoon and evening. Flight
conditions trend downward again as a wintry mix of precipitation
spreads roughly southwest to northeast across the area
overnight. Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities should
take hold by early Tuesday morning.

Light, northeast winds are expected to become variable overnight,
with potential for 15 to 25 kt gusts to develop along the
mountain ridges. LLWS may be possible at EKN tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR improvement today, and
timing and extent of restrictions in precipitation tonight may
vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 12/01/25
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in rain and snow Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ005>011-013-014-016>020-029>032-039-040-
     516-518>526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20