051
FXUS61 KRLX 140731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
331 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continue through the week as a warm and moist
airmass remains in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Point:
* Showers and storms increase in coverage during the day today.
* Heavy rainfall could lead to localized instances of flooding.

Precipitation coverage has been decreasing early this morning while
areas of fog are beginning to form. Confidence in the extent of fog
is not high as clouds and light flow could impede development.
Whatever fog does form will gradually dissipate after daybreak.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage again
during the day as a shortwave trough passes overhead and a front
stalls to the west of the Ohio River. In the warm, moist, and
unstable environment, precipitable water values are projected to
surge towards the two inch mark. This suggests storms will be very
efficient rain producers which could cause some flooding issues in
poor drainage areas or locations impacted by multiple cells.

Areas of fog will once again be possible as precipitation coverage
tapers off and skies begin to clear overnight.

High temperatures should reach 80s in the lowlands and mid 70s to
80s in the mountains today, then overnight lows are expected to
range from 60 to 70 degrees across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Hot, humid, and unsettled.
* Risk of localized flooding persists.

A front remains stalled just northwest of the forecast area through
Tuesday, then the boundary should be lifted to the north as a warm
front due to a low exiting the central US and heading towards the
Great Lakes.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur each day,
with precipitation chances peaking during the afternoon and
evening hours. With continued potential for heavy downpours over
increasingly saturated soils, marginal to slight excessive
rainfall risks have been painted across portions of the area.

Heat and humidity are expected to increase towards mid week, with
apparent temperatures possibly approaching upper 90s to triple
digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Point:
* Remaining unsettled into the weekend.

Unsettled weather continues as a front approaches from the northwest
and then sinks down into the area late in the week. An incoming system
is expected to pull the front back to the north where it may
then stall early next week. Heat and humidity may make it feel
very hot again on Thursday, then temperatures should moderate
for the end of the week thanks to the arrival of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 AM Monday...

Showers and a few thunderstorms that continue to move across the
area could briefly produce MVFR conditions tonight. Additional IFR
or worse restrictions should occur as valley fog begins to form;
however, exactly how widespread fog will be is uncertain as extent
may be limited by increasing cloud cover and some light winds. The
best potential for fog will be in areas that recently received rain
and where skies clear and winds go calm.

Some improvement should occur once fog dissipates during the
morning. Periodic CIG/VIS restrictions could then arise as showers
and thunderstorms become more widespread during the day. Activity
tapers off after 00Z, then areas of fog could again form as skies
start to clear late in the TAF period.

Calm to light winds are expected for the majority of the TAF period,
though occasional strong gusts could be possible within storms
today. Southerly winds turn westerly during the day, then become
variable for Monday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of fog tonight and
precipitation today may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 07/14/25
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
IFR river valley fog possible during the overnights.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20