099
FXUS64 KSHV 130609
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
109 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

 - Another warm work week is in store as an upper-level ridge
   continues to exert its influence over the region.

 - Gradual weakening of the ridge is expected by the end of the
   week, but southerly flow will maintain warm temperatures.

 - The coming pattern shift will usher a longwave trough through
   the Rockies and into the Plains next weekend with increasing
   rain and storm chances for our region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

As the upper-level ridge continues to build from the SW, its axis
will become centered across our region through the middle of this
week. This will only serve to increase subsidence and likely push
temperatures even higher than what we saw over this past weekend.
Therefore, have trended high temperatures a degree or two warmer
than the NBM guidance at most locations through much of this week,
especially in our urban areas with upper 80s to lower 90s common
each afternoon. Far northern zones may be closer to the middle 80s
with a bit more cloud cover possible along the northern periphery
of the upper ridge axis. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with
light and variable winds underneath the increasingly subsident air
mass.

By the end of this week and into next weekend, a very long-awaited
pattern shift will finally begin to take shape. This will come as
the upper ridge flattens out and shifts east toward the Atlantic
seaboard. Meanwhile, a deepening upper-level trough out west will
be digging through the Rockies before emerging out over the Plains
on Saturday. This is reflected in some form with all of the medium
range progs, although slight timing discrepancies do remain along
with the overall strength and amplitude of the upper-level trough.
So for now, have continued the trend of higher PoPs through next
weekend with the caveat that this may include a threat of severe
weather given the rather warm environment preceding the trough`s
arrival. The extent of available moisture and instability remain
question marks, but improved clarity should come with time as we
move closer to the weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

For the 13/06z TAF period...Expect VFR conditions to remain across
the region with some passing cirrus through this morning, followed
by afternoon CU. Winds will generally be calm to light/variable,
as high pressure remains over the region.

/20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  63  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  89  59  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  88  60  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  90  62  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  87  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  89  61  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  89  60  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  90  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...15