299
FXUS64 KSJT 262244
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
544 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the beginning of
  next week.

- Low (15 to 30%) rain chances Saturday and Sunday afternoon and
  evening.

- Medium (30-60%) chance for rain for the middle of next week,
  with cooler temperatures for the second half of next week as
  well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

This afternoon and evening, high resolution CAMs continue to show
isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing first over the
higher terrain of southwest Texas, and then roughly along and just
west of a Wichita Falls to Iraan line by late this afternoon.
These storms are expected to move east into west-central Texas
during the evening hours, potentially lasting into the late night
hours. The main concerns with these storms will be gusty winds,
and locally heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in localized
flooding. Temperatures both tonight and tomorrow will continue to
be well above normal, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and
highs in the mid to upper 90s on Sunday. There will be another
chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and evening, mainly south of Interstate 20.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

By midday Monday, medium range models are in fairly good
agreement, bringing a strong upper level trough into southern
California, while at the same time, Hurricane Polo is expected to
be turning northeast and headed toward the Baja Peninsula. Out
ahead of the upper level low, surface winds will increase out of
the south/southeast, pulling Gulf moisture into west Texas. The
upper level trough is expected pull the remnants of Hurricane Polo
northeastward into northwestern Mexico Monday night into Tuesday.
The combination of lift from the upper level trough and the
remnants of Hurricane Polo, along with plentiful moisture
available is still expected to bring a good chance for
precipitation to west and west-central Texas from Tuesday into the
second half of next week. The most favorable time period will
likely be from Tuesday night into Wednesday night as a Pacific
cold front moves into the area and combines with the upper level
support. While the highest potential for heavy rainfall lies to
the west of our area, there will be the potential for heavy
rainfall and flooding in our area as well. In addition to the
precipitation chances, temperatures should cool from highs in the
90s down into the 80s through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period.
However, scattered thunderstorms have developed per radar
observations (as of 2243z). This will likely move into the
vicinity of KABI this evening. Otherwise, an isolated thunderstorm
as far south as KSJT is possible this afternoon as well. Expect
erratic, gusty winds in the vicinity of this activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  98  74  97 /  40  10  10  10
San Angelo  71  98  72  97 /  20  10  10   0
Junction    70  97  70  96 /   0  20  20   0
Brownwood   71  97  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
Sweetwater  72  98  73  97 /  30   0   0   0
Ozona       70  95  70  94 /  10  10  20   0
Brady       70  95  71  94 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41