498
FXUS62 KTAE 020648
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
148 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
  through this morning for our Florida counties. A tornado or two
  is possible along with gusty winds.

- Beneficial rain is occurring this morning. Amounts over 1 inch
  are expected along and north of a line from Dothan to Albany,
  and with heavier thunderstorms that move onshore the Panhandle
  coast this morning.

- There is a medium chance (40-50 percent chance) for additional
  beneficial rainfall exceeding 1 inch on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Early this morning, a warm front is located near or just off the
beaches of the Panhandle coast, and a low pressure wave just south
of the Alabama coast is moving E-ENE along the front. Along and
south of the front, weak instability and a very favorably curved
low- level wind profile is supporting low- topped supercell
thunderstorms off the coast with waterspouts. Indeed, radar has
already shown multiple cells offshore with sufficiently strong
rotation to produce waterspouts. Through the remainder of the pre-
dawn hours, storms will make a run at the Emerald and Forgotten
Coasts, so we could certainly get a tornado or two moving onshore.
Meanwhile in the cooler and more stable air over inland areas
north of the front, we are simply getting widespread beneficial
moderate stratiform rain.

After sunrise, the low pressure wave will move east of Tallahassee
along the FL/GA border. South of its track, there will still be a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms anywhere
across our FL Big Bend counties. The severe threat should exit
east of the Lower Suwannee River by early afternoon.

Post-frontal stratus will fill in this afternoon and evening.

A surface high pressure center will move across the Tennessee
Valley on Wednesday, pushing dry northerly breezes into our
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

In the big picture, the average pattern across North America will be
a low amplitude but energetic longwave trough over eastern North
America, while a split flow pattern over western North America will
support an active southern jet stream all the way east across the
Gulf Coast. So a fast and active winter jet stream has cranked up.

Late in the week, a shortwave will dive into and round the base of
the longwave trough over the eastern U.S.. A baroclinic or frontal
boundary over the northern Gulf or near the Gulf Coast will
sharpen on Thursday, supporting the first chance of rain following
a couple of dry days. A low pressure wave will ripple east along
the frontal boundary on Friday and Friday night, not too
dissimilarly to the setup that is happening early this morning.
North of the front, a large area of moderate stratiform rain will
bring more beneficial rain. Along and south of the wavering front,
severe storms are possible, in an environment marked by weak
instability but impressive curvature of the low-level wind
profile. This brings a low probability tornado threat to mind,
with coastal communities most likely to be in play for severe
storms. Of course, the severe threat will largely depend on how
far north and inland the unstable warm sector can push. The most
likely time for severe storms would come on Friday night and
Saturday.

The front will then slowly push south later Saturday into Saturday
night, leaving dry weather on Sunday.

Another shortwave will dive into the base of the eastern U.S.
longwave trough on Monday, pushing a reinforcing cold front across
the region around Sunday night or Monday. This time, the southern
branch of the jet stream will have weakened, so this will should be
a dry cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

A warm front is currently located close to the Panhandle coast.
To its north, an influx of moisture and warm advection lift is
bringing widespread moderate stratiform rain, with IFR cigs and
reduced vsbys. Radar-derived wind profiles are indicating low-
level wind shear. Over the course of this morning, a frontal low
will advance east from near Pensacola along the I-10 corridor,
bringing the best chance of thunder. In advance of the frontal
low, low- level wind shear will be a concern, as surface winds
remain backed easterly, while winds at 2,000 feet veer from
southeasterly to southerly at 25-45 knots.

Once that low pressure wave moves east, a cold front will sweep
across the region late this morning. It will be followed by gusty
northwest winds and a fairly large extent of post-frontal
stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

A low pressure wave will move east along the Panhandle coast this
morning, supporting strong breezes to its south. The low will exit
east of the waters this afternoon. In its wake, a cold front will
push across the waters. High pressure will pass east across the
Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas on Wednesday and Thursday,
causing moderate northerlies on Wednesday to clock around easterly
on Thursday. Another wave of low pressure will track east near the
Panhandle coast on Friday, followed by a slow-moving cold front on
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

By this afternoon, most districts will have gotten a beneficial
wetting rain of one-quarter inch or more. Once the rain is done this
afternoon, a cold front will push south, bringing a reinforcing shot
of cooler and drier air on Wednesday. However, seasonably low mixing
heights will only allow for poor daytime dispersion for most
districts on Wednesday and Thursday. A front will sharpen near the
northern Gulf Coast on Thursday, then low pressure moving along the
front on Friday will bring a high chance of another wetting rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 148 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Beneficial rains are occurring early this morning. As of 1 am CT,
over 1 inch of rain had already fallen in parts of Coffee County,
Alabama. 1+ inch will eventually be common north of a Dothan-
Albany line. Locally heavier amounts will also occur with heavier
convective cells that move onshore the Panhandle coast.
Otherwise, many locations will exceed 1/2 inch of rain, especially
by the time a short convective line moves across our Florida
counties. Unless we get intense rainfall rates over just the wrong
urban area, rain should be entirely beneficial and not cause
flooding.

The next round of rain will come from late Thursday through
Saturday, with heaviest rain on Friday and Friday night. There is
a high chance of exceeding 1/4 inch, and there is a medium chance
(40-50 percent) of exceeding 1 inch. The greatest consensus for
exceeding 1 inch is along an axis from near Destin to Dothan to
Albany and Fitzgerald. Once again, rain should almost entirely be
beneficial.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  41  60  42 /  80   0   0   0
Panama City   70  39  60  46 /  40   0   0  10
Dothan        62  34  56  39 /  40   0   0  10
Albany        64  35  56  35 /  90   0   0   0
Valdosta      72  39  60  38 /  90   0   0   0
Cross City    77  46  66  41 /  70   0   0   0
Apalachicola  73  42  60  49 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 1 PM EST
     this afternoon for GMZ730-765.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner