233
FXUS62 KTAE 021621
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1221 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1125 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Rain chances are forecast to increase substantially this weekend
  with several rounds of showers and storms possible across the
  region. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall is
  in effect for parts of Southeast Alabama and the Florida
  Panhandle for Friday and Saturday with a slight (level 2 of 4)
  risk for excessive rainfall across the Panhandle and Southeast
  Alabama for Sunday.

- Heavy rainfall potential continues into early next week.
  Additional flooding concerns could develop though forecast
  uncertainty at this time still remains somewhat large.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Forecast looks on track with no changes planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Rain chances increase this afternoon thanks to tropical moisture
lifting in from the northwestern Caribbean. The best opportunity for
rain today will be along the Florida Panhandle into southeastern
Alabama this morning into the afternoon. A bit of daytime heating
should allow for more hit or miss showers and storms to develop
across the Florida Big Bend and southwestern Georgia this afternoon.
Precipitable Water values (PWATs) nearing or exceeding the 90th
percentile means any showers or storms today will be highly
efficient rain-producers that could drop a quick half inch to an
inch of rain. Temperatures will generally remain in the lower to
middle 80s for areas west of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers
and middle 80s to near 90 for those to the east.

Showers will continue over the northeastern Gulf later tonight with
a few of them periodically coming ashore throughout the night. Lows
will run a solid 5 to 7 degrees above normal, or the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

More rain is in the forecast this weekend as a cold front trudges
through the Southeast. Ample tropical moisture will get squeezed out
along the front as it crawls through, producing scattered to
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms, especially Sunday.

This is thanks to an H5 ridge over the northern Bahamas and Florida.
Models differ slightly in the exact position and strength of the
ridge, but they do agree in it continuing to pull up deep tropical
moisture from the northwestern Caribbean. The reason the strength of
the H5 ridge matters Saturday is there`s the potential for eastern
parts of our area to be drier than the western. So there could be a
somewhat drastic cutoff between those that see a good bit of rain
Saturday and those that don`t see much, if any, rain Saturday.
However, the ridge does get pushed back enough to allow everyone in
on the rain action during the day Sunday as the front nears and runs
into the deep tropical moisture.

Beyond that, it largely depends on how far south the cold front
makes it.

There are two potential scenarios for early next week:

The first is the front stalls over northern Florida or southern
Georgia/Alabama, which keeps rain chances high to very high early
next week. This scenario would really pile up the rain totals
across our area.

The second scenario is that the front makes it into the northeastern
Gulf before stalling, taking the vast majority of the rain along
with it early Monday.

As of now, the first scenario is favored slightly more than the
second, but not by much. So it will be something we monitor
carefully going forward as it greatly dictates whether we see the
potential for flooding rain (scenario one) or drier with cooler
overnight lows (scenario two).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

SHRA and a few TSRA across the area through 00Z. The coverage of
TSRA will be lower with PROB30s maintained for most areas. A low
probability of MVFR cigs late tonight into Saturday morning for
some areas. Easterly flow is maintained through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to provide
gentle to moderate easterly to southeasterly breezes through the
weekend. A nearby front increases shower and thunderstorm coverage
into the weekend before stalling over the northeastern Gulf, keeping
rain chances elevated into early next week. Winds turn more
northeasterly behind the front early next week as rain chances
linger due to the front stalling nearby.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Aside from poor to fair dispersions over the weekend, no fire
concerns are expected. This is thanks scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms back in the forecast through the weekend into
early next week. Widespread rainfall totals through the weekend will
be around 2 to 3 inches across our AL/GA counties and 3 to 5 inches
across our Florida counties. Locally higher amounts of 5 to 7 inches
are possible along the immediate coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A very wet pattern is expected over the weekend into early next
week. Despite that, current forecast rainfall (generally 2" to 5")
amounts will struggle to bring significant riverine concerns due to
drier antecedent conditions across our mainstem rivers. However,
should the higher end rainfall amounts of widespread 6" or more
verify over the next several days, some rivers could reach action
stage, and some of the smaller river streams could see minor
flooding.

The bigger issue flooding wise will come from high rainfall rates
and across any poor drainage or urbanized areas given forecast
rainfall amounts. The rainfall rates are certainly something to be
aware of as Precipitable Water values (PWATs) are forecast to be
near, or exceed, record values for early October.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  73  85  73 /  50  30  50  50
Panama City   83  73  84  73 /  80  40  80  80
Dothan        85  70  86  70 /  60  20  50  70
Albany        87  71  86  71 /  50  20  50  60
Valdosta      90  72  87  72 /  50  50  60  50
Cross City    88  73  85  73 /  50  50  50  30
Apalachicola  83  76  83  75 /  80  60  70  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese