495
FXUS62 KTAE 070730
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
230 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

- There is a 50% chance of 2 inches or more of beneficial rain
  today along the Forgotten Coast and Southeast FL Big Bend.

- There is a 40% chance of dense fog northwest of a Fitzgerald -
  Albany - Dothan line this morning. Additional fog is possible
  Monday morning.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect west of the Ochlockonee
  River from late tonight/early Monday morning and continuing
  into Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

A chilly and wet weekend continues as one or more areas of low
pressure ripple along a stalled front to our south over the Gulf.
The upside is that we`re getting much needed rain. Additional
rain through tonight of 1-2 inches is expected from a Valdosta-
Tallahassee-Panama City line southeast. There is a 50% chance
of 2 inches or more of rainfall along the Forgotten Coast and
Southeast FL Big Bend, where a reasonable worst case scenario is
3 to 4 inches of rainfall. Strong thunderstorms are expected
to remain over the Gulf, with a low probability of gusty storm
making it ashore in Dixie County. Patchy fog will be around
this morning, but will be more widespread to the northwest of a
Fitzgerald - Albany - Dothan line, where there is a 40% chance
of dense fog. Additional fog is possible Monday morning. On
Monday, lingering showers mainly across eastern areas in the
morning, with gradual clearing from west to east. It will be
breezy with northwest winds gusting around 20 to 25 mph, which
remains closer to the 90th percentile of the guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

It turns chilly Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with lows dipping
down into the lower 30s to lower 40s. A warming trend will take
hold by Wednesday as high temps return closer to normal, with dry
weather expected into Thursday. A strong cold frontal passage is
progged on Friday with a chance of showers; thunderstorm chances
may be limited by a lack of moist return in advance of the front.
A cold air mass moves into the eastern CONUS in the wake of the
front, the southward extent of which remains uncertain at this
time, with a large spread in ensemble temperature solutions next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

The air mass will remain stable with deep moisture for the next 24
hours. The shield of stratiform rain that is currently shown on
radar will expand north through sunrise, more fully engulfing DHN
and ABY. It will then continually stream across the region, with
little or no break from the rain during daylight hours. After
sunset, the rain shield will start to slowly limp south and weaken
slightly. However, the low-level air mass will still be nearly
saturated and stable, so very low clouds with mist or possibly fog
will persist after sunset on Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

A Gulf low will lead to fresh breezes today in the 15 to 20 knot
range over much of the coastal waters along with seas building to
3 to 4 feet over the waters to the west of the Ochlockonee River.
Thunderstorms will also be possible today just offshore, leading
to briefly higher winds and seas, along with the potential for
waterspouts. A cold frontal passage tonight clocks winds around
to the north, increasing to advisory levels late tonight into
early Monday morning across the coastal waters to the west of
the Ochlockonee River, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect.
There is a 50% chance the advisory may need to be extended to
the east of the Ochlockonee River by Monday afternoon. Tranquil
boating conditions should return by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Cloudy with Wetting rains on tap through Monday morning, then a
return to dry weather, but temperatures remain below normal until
midweek. Transport winds easterly today with lower mixing heights
contribute to low daytime dispersion areawide again today. Monday,
brisk northwest transport winds and modest mixing heights lead to
good dispersion. Tuesday, weak easterly transport winds may yield
pockets of low afternoon dispersion. Dispersion concerns aside,
recent rainfall and higher RH will tend to mitigate fire weather
concerns over the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Beneficial rain expected across the region through the weekend,
as discussed in the short term section above. This may lead to
to nuisance flooding in urban and low-lying areas, but flash or
riverine flooding is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   61  53  63  40 /  90  60  50   0
Panama City   64  53  64  41 /  80  60  50   0
Dothan        57  49  58  35 /  50  70  10   0
Albany        57  47  59  36 /  50  50  20   0
Valdosta      59  50  61  38 /  90  60  40   0
Cross City    65  54  66  41 /  90  80  40   0
Apalachicola  66  56  65  44 /  90  70  50   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF