266
FXUS62 KTAE 220007
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
807 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
Storms appear to have come to end as expected this evening over
land. An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible across the
marine area overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

A cold front is moving through the area with a line of showers
and thunderstorms ahead of the front. There is plenty of
instability and lots of DCAPE for the storms to tap into. The
Storm Prediction Center has outlined the eastern Big Bend up to
the Valdosta metro in a Slight Risk of severe weather with other
parts of south Georgia and the Florida Panhandle in a Marginal
Risk. Damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main hazards with
storms. These storms will end by mid-evening as they move into the
southeast Big Bend.

Drier air will move in behind the front, though the air is not
much cooler. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid-60s, except
upper 60s along the coast. With dry air and abundant sunshine
expected on Thursday, temperatures will still be quite warm,
though not as humid. Highs will be in the low to mid-90s for most
of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Benign conditions are expected for the short term. Winds will be
light from the northwest, and dew point temperatures rebounding
back into the mid 60s. This will increase the mugginess during the
morning hours. Morning low temperatures will be in the mid-60s
for Friday morning and warm to the low to mid-90s for the
afternoon. PoPs are nearly zero for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Surface high pressure will keep our weather calm for the weekend,
with afternoon temperatures in the mid-90s and overnight lows
starting in the mid 60s. As we head into the start of the work
week, the surface high will exit the region, and the upper level
ridging will flatten. This will allow for shortwave troughs to
swing by, increasing our PoPs chances for the upcoming week.
Depending on when the shortwave passes, we will have instability
and shear to produce strong to potentially severe thunderstorms,
but it will depend on when the cold front approaches. We will
continue to monitor as the system gets closer. PoPs for Monday and
Tuesday range from 30-60 percent. For the extended period, we
could expect an active weather pattern for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

A cold front will move across the waters later today through
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front.
Following the frontal passage, winds will be light with seas
averaging around 1 foot by this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

A cold front is moving through the area this afternoon and
evening with scattered showers and storms. These storms will be
capable of gusty erratic winds for the rest of the day. Heading
into the next several days, mixing heights will be very high with
westerly to northwesterly transport winds overall. Thus, high to
very high dispersions are expected each afternoon across the area.
RH values will be near or below critical levels across the inland
Big Bend into south Georgia (low to mid-20s) on Thursday. RH
values climb slightly each day heading into Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Following today`s cold front, little to no rain is expected for
the next several days. There are no flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   66  92  66  93 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   69  87  70  88 /  20  10   0   0
Dothan        63  90  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        63  91  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    66  87  63  91 /  20  20   0   0
Apalachicola  71  83  69  86 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery