520
FXUS62 KTBW 050001
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
801 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms was located along
the immediate coast south of Bradenton and over the adjacent
coastal waters. The area of rain was pushing west away from the
coast. A few showers were also occurring over eastern Polk
county. Shower activity across west central and southwest Florida
is expected to dissipate by midnight, with mostly cloudy skies the
remainder of the night.

Little change to the overall pattern expected on Sunday as strong
high pressure remains north of the area with a rather tight
pressure gradient over the Florida peninsula. This will continue
to produce gusty east to northeast winds. Significant easterly
fetch off the Atlantic will continue to generate showers and
isolated thunderstorms which will advect onshore the east coast
of Florida, and will push across the peninsula during the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Broad surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states continues
to ridge westward through the southeast U.S. and just north of
Florida. Closer to Florida, a pair of weak low pressure centers is
located along a frontal boundary extending over south Florida and
into the northern gulf. The first one to our east is a weak area of
low pressure near the Bahamas. This area will slowly drift westward
over the next couple of days producing higher rain chances on
Sunday, especially over the east coast of Florida and south Florida.
A little farther to the west, another area of weak low pressure is
located in the north central gulf. Both of these areas are being
monitored by the NHC, but have a very low chance of tropical
development. A tight pressure gradient between the high pressure to
the north and these areas of low pressure will produce persistent
breezy east-northeast winds through the remainder of the weekend.

By Monday morning, the high pressure to the north moves farther
eastward into the western Atlantic allowing for a weaker pressure
gradient over the area, resulting in decreasing winds. East-
northeast winds will persist though, resulting in the highest rain
chances over the east coast and interior early in the day with
scattered showers and isolated storms traversing from east to west
late afternoon and evening hours. This pattern will remain
relatively unchanged through next week. Near seasonal temperatures
expected through the period, with mid to upper 80`s to low 90`s
expected each afternoon. Overnight lows will remain in the upper
60`s to mid 70`s.

NHC is also monitoring one other disturbance in the eastern
Atlantic. This area has a 50 percent chance of development over the
next 7 days as it traverses west-northwestward and may become a
tropical depression by the middle to latter part of next week. It`s
too early to tell if and when any impacts will be felt for west
central and southwest Florida from this system, but will be closely
monitored over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
A few showers may impact SRQ for the next hour or two...however
VFR CIGs/VSBYs should prevail. VFR CIGs are expected at all
terminals overnight with skies generally SCT LCL BKN080 and BKN-
OVC250. Daytime heating Sunday morning will create LCL MVFR CIGs
020-030...with bases lifting to VFR 035-045 during the afternoon.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will also develop
Sunday afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs vcnty all
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Hazardous marine conditions for small craft operators continue today
and Sunday as gusty winds of 20 to 30 knots persist, producing
offshore wave heights in the 5 to 8 foot range. Inland waters will
also remain choppy to rough, especially in areas with high wind
exposure. Scattered showers and an isolated storm will be possible
across the coastal waters during the afternoon to early evening
hours. While winds are forecast to slightly decrease on Sunday, the
seas will still take longer to subside. East-northeast winds around
15 knots or slightly higher will persist into next week keeping 2 to
4 foot wave heights over the eastern gulf waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Abundant moisture will keep humidity values above critical levels
through the period. Scattered showers and isolated storms possible
each day through the period. Gusty east-northeast winds will produce
some high dispersions for the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  77  88 /  10  40  10  50
FMY  75  89  75  89 /  20  50  10  50
GIF  74  88  75  87 /  10  50  20  60
SRQ  74  90  74  88 /  20  50  10  40
BKV  71  89  72  87 /  10  50  10  60
SPG  76  87  76  86 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana