940
FXUS62 KTBW 111345
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
845 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 836 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

-  Record breaking cold temperatures continue.

-  Elevated fire threat today with period of Red Flag conditions
   expected late morning through afternoon.

-  Marine hazards continue today before gradually diminishing by
   tonight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Arctic airmass over the region produced numerous record low temps
and dangerous wind chills this morning. Daytime temps very slow to
increase with well below climate normals for today for a cold
Veterans Day in FL. Very low humidity combined with gusty winds
to produce hazardous fire conditions today and have expanding
warned areas to N of I-4. This mornings hazards expiring shortly
while latest grids and forecasts updated to highlight all expected
hazards after 9am today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue next 24 hrs as gusty northerly winds this
morning decrease late in the day and tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Highly amplified flow aloft with deep E CONUS trough and W CONUS
ridge this morning coupled with a strong surface high centered
over the S/Central U.S. and N Gulf enabling cold Canadian air mass
to filter into the state via strong to occasionally gusty
northerly winds. As has been advertised, potential for record lows
this morning along with record low maximum daytime high temps
this afternoon continues, with morning lows from the upper 20s far
north to upper 30s/around 40 far south struggling to climb only
into mostly the upper 50s/around 60 this afternoon area wide...
representing about a 15-25 degree departure below average. Given
winds 10-15 mph with higher gusts through the morning, expect wind
chills bottoming out in the 20s this morning north and central
and lower/mid 30s elsewhere. While winds are expected to gradually
diminish during the afternoon, a period of Red Flag conditions
will be possible as relative humidities drop below 35 percent
area wide before the winds diminish.

The pattern aloft de-amplifies through the remainder of the week,
but not before another night of cold temps tonight/Wednesday
morning as the surface high shifts east and settles over the area
enabling strong radiational cooling as winds diminish further
under clear skies. While low temps will be a few degrees warmer
particularly along and south of I-4, some Nature Coast areas
northward will once again approach freezing, accompanied by
potential areas of frost. The air mass will continue gradually
modifying with afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s
Wednesday afternoon, with overnight lows through the remainder of
the week warming through the 40s into the 50s by the weekend,
while afternoon highs warm back into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Rain free conditions are expected to persist at least into the
weekend with only a slight chance of a shower perhaps late weekend
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Continued hazardous boating conditions with strong northerly
winds and associated elevated seas. Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect through this afternoon with northerly winds of 20 to 30
knots with higher gusts. Winds will gradually diminish by this
evening and generally remain 15 knots or less out of the
northeast to north through the remainder of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Elevated fire threat today as very dry air continues filtering into
the area with gusty northerly winds. RH values drop below critical
levels by late morning while winds remain elevated leading to a
period of RFW conditions through much of the afternoon, mainly
confined to areas south of I-4. Winds diminish by evening lowering
the overall threat, and remain below 15 mph through the remainder of
the week although periods of critical RH values will remain possible
during the next few afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  43  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  62  45  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  59  41  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  61  42  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  59  31  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  60  50  70  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce