374
FXUS62 KTBW 160009
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
709 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool start to Tuesday, then warming trend next couple of days.

&&

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025
High pressure will hold over the region tonight with clearing
skies and cool dry conditions. Large spread in temperatures as
lows will range from the upper 30s north to the mid 50s south.

The area of high pressure will move off the mid Atlantic coast on
Tuesday with boundary layer winds veering to the east of the
Atlantic. This will cause the airmass over the region to modify
rather quickly with temperatures climbing a bit above climatic
normals Tuesday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s north to the
mid 70s south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

A cold front moved through overnight, delivering slightly drier
and cool air for today. Northeast winds will also be quite gusty
throughout the day before calming overnight. It`ll be another cool
one tonight, though cloud cover will limit radiational cooling
keeping low temperatures in the upper in the upper 30s(north) to
mid 50s(south). OVer the next couple days high pressure will
linger over the SE into the Atlantic and afternoon highs will
creep back into the upper 70s and low 80s. Thursday night into
Friday morning another cold front is expected to move through,
however this front will hardly have an impact on temperature,
besides maybe a little cooler Saturday and Sunday morning. A few
showers are also possible as the front moves through overnight
Thursday into Friday morning. Other than that, conditions remain
dry with seasonable warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at TPA/PIE/LAL for the next 24 hours
under mostly clear skies.  MVFR CIGs will persist south of
Bradenton for the next several hours impacting
SRQ/PGD/FMY/RSW...with skies becoming mostly clear after midnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Hazardous marine conditions continue today with gusty NE winds.
Winds should begin to diminish overnight tonight, with seas
following suit. Elevated risk of rip currents continue into the
evening as well. The remainder of the week will be quiet with only a
slight interruption Thursday night into Friday as a cold front
moves through bringing a line of showers.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Some dry has moved over the area following last night`s cold front.
However, RH values should remain above critical levels. Gusty NE
winds today will begin to subside overnight tonight. Moisture
increases through the week until another cold front moves through
THursday night into Friday morning, dropping RH`s slightly once
again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  52  75  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  56  78  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  50  74  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  53  76  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  42  73  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  56  74  61  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming