Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
281 FXUS62 KTBW 191942 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 242 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy late night and early morning fog each day. - Sunny and dry with temperatures running several degrees above normal through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 An upper level ridge extends from the southwestern Gulf into central Canada with Florida remaining on the eastern periphery of this feature with a northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure is situated near Bermuda as a weak surface low shifts offshore of the mid Atlantic region tonight. This will drive a weak frontal boundary into the Southeast US tonight but this feature will remain north of Florida so similar to many recent evenings, patchy fog will be the main forecast concern overnight with greatest coverage generally expected across the Nature Coast. The upper level ridge across the Gulf will remain in control through the end of the week and this will maintain the mostly status quo weather pattern of above normal temperatures and dry conditions with patchy fog being the main forecast concern during the overnight hours. Upper ridging will then slightly deamplify by late week and into the weekend as shortwave energy ejects across the central CONUS and OH/TN Valley as a deep trough digs across the desert SW. Meanwhile, cyclogenesis will occur in the lee of the Rockies late week in response to the aforementioned shortwave energy aloft with a surface low then shifting across the OH/TN valley by Saturday as the associated cold front approaches northern Florida later this weekend. While there may be a slight uptick in moisture return ahead of this frontal boundary, it doesn`t appear that our prolonged streak of little to no rainfall will come to an end this weekend as much of the better forcing for ascent will remain well to the north of the area. As a result, the ongoing forecast does not include any mentionable PoPs this weekend at this time as this weakening boundary slides through the region but perhaps enough moisture/lift will be present to squeeze out a few isolated showers, mainly on Sunday but would generally expect the vast majority of locations to remain dry. By early next week, upper level ridging shifts eastward across the Eastern Seaboard as an expansive surface high shifts off the Northeast US. This will maintain dry and warm weather for early next week with an overall favorable pattern for local travel ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. However, it appears the stagnant weather pattern may finally start to at least temporarily lose its grips as a low pressure system shifts across the central Plains and drags a cold front into the area by the middle of the week or into the Thanksgiving Day. While there remains timing differences on a potential frontal passage around the end of the forecast period as the ECMWF shows a more progressive pattern with a clean frontal passage while the GFS shows a boundary perhaps stalling to the north of Florida, at least through Day 7, it does appear that there may finally be a signal to put an end to the long dry streak that has been in place. However, whether or not this will be enough precipitation to bring meaningful drought relief is not known at this time but latest GEFS ensembles show about a 10%-30% chance of QPF values greater than 0.10" through the end of Thanksgiving Day compared to the 30%-50% probabilities in the EPS ensemble suite, though neither solution show anything greater than a half inch through this time period so it is likely additional time will be needed before more meaningful rain chances return. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day but areas of fog may develop overnight in some areas, which may result in IFR conditions or worse but forecast confidence remains low in overall coverage of fog development. Other than potential fog impacts overnight, VFR conditions will continue area-wide on Thursday with E winds in the morning shifting to the NNW at coastal sites by the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 High pressure across the region will maintain dry weather with winds less than 10 kts and seas 1 ft or less through the end of the week. High pressure is expected to remain in control by the upcoming weekend and this will favor pleasant marine conditions as wind speeds remain below 10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 A dry weather pattern remains in control as high pressure is established across the Florida peninsula but despite increasingly dry soils due to ongoing drought condition, red flag conditions are not expected at this time as minimum RH values remain above critical levels. The dry and warm weather pattern will remain in control this weekend and into early next week, but a chance of precipitation may return to the area as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches ahead of a frontal system next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 63 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 63 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 60 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 61 83 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 53 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 66 81 65 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Davis UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis