234
FXUS63 KTOP 311855
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
155 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A conditional threat for severe storms continues this evening,
 however, some uncertainty exists in whether storms develop.

-Best chances for storms early week will be in central KS. Chances
 increase eastward later in the week.

-Hot and humid to start the week, slightly cooler midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

The main focus in the short-term is on the potential for severe
thunderstorms this evening. Looking at the synoptic pattern,
southwest flow persists aloft with an H5 trough axis across the
Northern Plains. Water vapor isn`t showing much in the way of
shortwaves within the southwest flow as of midday. At the surface
low pressure is over northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas early
this afternoon. Instability has been building in the wake of this
morning`s thunderstorm activity, although cloud cover is hampering
temps/dew points and associated instability a bit. The cloud cover
could continue to be a factor. However, most models agree on a quick
increase in instability into the evening with over 3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE in eastern KS by 21/22Z. The 18Z TOP RAOB still shows a cap
with 14C at 750mb. RAP forecast soundings show a similar cap, but
erode it by around 01/02Z. Some CAMs show storm initiation in our
southeastern counties around that same timeframe. Have kept POPs
only around 30 percent given uncertainty that remains on a forcing
mechanism and whether the cap can be overcome. If storms do develop,
there should be enough instability and deep layer shear to support
supercells with a damaging wind and hail risk. Backed sfc and low
level winds would also aid in a tornado risk with both RAP and HRRR
forecast soundings showing over 100 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH and over 200
m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH.

Monday looks hot and humid with highs reaching the upper 80s and low
90s. Most of the day should be dry but chances for storms will begin
increasing again Monday night and early Tuesday, mainly in central
KS where models show impacts from a shortwave H5 trough. A mid-level
ridge will build over the area early in the week and a sfc ridge
will move in from the northeast midweek. That set up should keep the
main axis of storms in central KS until the upper ridge advances
eastward as an upper trough moves across the far northern CONUS.
Shortwaves aloft can be tough to predict several days in advance,
but in general, POPs will increase eastward late in the week as that
ridge pushes east. The 12Z run of long range models continue to show
a storm system moving over KS next weekend, which would keep rain
chances around. Temperature-wise, a slight cool down is expected
through midweek due to the sfc ridge nudging in from the east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Have included a PROB30 group at TOP/FOE this evening where there is
potential for thunderstorm impacts. Outside of storms, VFR is
expected to continue until tonight when patchy fog development is
possible. Have enough confidence in reduced visibilities to go ahead
and include MVFR for a few hours tonight/early Monday at all sites.
However, if fog does develop, IFR cannot be ruled out. Updates will
be made if confidence grows. VFR returns after 14Z Monday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey