421
FXUS64 KTSA 041128
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
528 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

 - Temperatures near or below seasonal averages into the
   upcoming weekend, then begin to warm into early next week.

 - Rain chances increase on Thursday with another cold frontal
   passage; mostly dry weather is forecast Friday and through the
   remainder of the forecast period.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Mid/upper level trof axis over eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas late Tuesday evening will continue to slide off to the
northeast and exit Wednesday morning. Cloud cover associated with
the backside of the disturbance is forecast to remain over parts
of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Wednesday
morning before moving out with the departing trof. These
conditions look to keep temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s for
lows Wednesday morning.

During the day Wednesday, westerly winds remain common for the CWA
ahead of an another approaching shortwave. With the scattering of
clouds forecast Wednesday afternoon, temperatures in the 60s to
lower 70s look to be probable.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The shortwave out west is progged to become more of a positively
tilted open wave as it moves into the central/southern Plains
Thursday. Ahead of this wave, weak southerly low level flow looks
to return Wednesday night into Thursday before an associated cold
front drops southeast into the CWA during the day Thursday. This
period of return flow will open a brief window for moisture
advection back into the region, which will aid in rain chances
returning Thursday afternoon/evening. With limited moisture
return, rainfall amounts should remain light. Latest model
solutions continue to highlight little instability ahead of the
shortwave, and as such will continue to keep thunder potentials
less than 10 percent.

Slightly below seasonal average temperatures set in Friday in the
wake of the departing shortwave and look to continue into
Saturday. Beyond Saturday, extended models differ with the track
of another wave that could move through the Plains. For now will
hold off on adding any PoPs into the forecast for the weekend,
though it is something to keep an eye on. If the wave can remain
north and east of the CWA, then a return southerly winds and
warmer temperatures could develop for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

MVFR ceilings will clear out of the northwest Arkansas sites this
morning. VFR conditions will then prevail at all sites for the
rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  47  66  44 /   0   0  40  20
FSM   69  47  72  50 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   70  46  70  46 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   66  44  62  41 /   0   0  40  10
FYV   65  41  68  41 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   64  47  69  47 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   68  46  68  45 /   0   0  20  20
MIO   65  43  64  44 /   0   0  30  10
F10   69  46  67  44 /   0   0  30  20
HHW   71  47  73  51 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05