208
FXUS64 KTSA 281133
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

 - Low rain chances into Monday afternoon with isolated
   thunderstorm potential in southeast Oklahoma.

 - Above normal temperatures continue through mid week.

 - Unsettled weather for mid to late week. Expect several periods
   of high rain chances and heavy rain potential. Limited severe
   weather potential will exist as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Surface boundary just south of the Red River Sunday night combined
with a weak elevated boundary across northeast Oklahoma to
west central Arkansas and also warm advection processes will aid
in low rain chances Sunday night into Monday morning. Isolated
thunder potential exists mainly over far southeast Oklahoma,
closer to the surface boundary. Much of this activity is expected
to weaken through the morning hours Monday while the surface
boundary sags farther south and the elevated boundary washes out.
A slight chance of showers/storms could remain for far southeast
Oklahoma into the afternoon hours. In the wake of the weakening
precip, cloud cover is forecast to become more scattered which
will help afternoon temperatures Monday to warm into the mid 80s
to low 90s from north to south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

For the week ahead, the main forecast concerns are associated with
a low pressure system, currently moving southeast along the West
coast, merging with the remnants of tropical system Polo over the
Desert Southwest and lifting into the southern/central Plains
mid-late week. With this system, an increasing heavy rain threat
is developing for the second half of the week along with a
continued limited severe potential.

Latest model solutions are in general agreement with the merging
of these two features over the Desert Southwest Tuesday/Wednesday.
However, beyond Wednesday model run to run solutions continue
indicate uncertainties in the timing and track of the low
pressure system through the Plains. The general track of the
system could depend on a wave/trof axis moving across the northern
Plains with a trailing cold front approaching the southern Plains
late week. This could hinder the northern extent of the low
pressure system lifting into the southern Plains, and keep a
weakening low pressure over the region into the weekend. If part
or most of the low pressure system can remain ahead of the trof
axis, then a quicker exit of the low pressure system is possible.
For now will continue with a blended approach with a lean toward
a slower solution that could keep precip chances going into the
weekend.

For this forecast, a slight chance of showers/storms could develop
west of Highway 75 Tuesday afternoon as the first slug of moisture
lifts north/northeast through west and central Oklahoma. The main
moisture plume is currently progged to lift into the region
Wednesday with the low pressure system near the Oklahoma Texas
Panhandles. In response, rain showers are forecast to become
likely from west to east, especially Wednesday night through
Friday. Overall instability tries to spread eastward with the
moisture, though at this time the eastern periphery of the
instability axis looks to only get into a portion of eastern
Oklahoma. Thus, will continue with low chances for thunderstorms
for eastern Oklahoma and isolated chances for northwest Arkansas.
Increasing winds aloft could aid in limited severe potentials
Wednesday/Thursday.

High moisture content with precipitable water values near
climatological max for the time of year looks to be the main
threat with this multi-day precipitation forecast. As of this
forecast, Wednesday night into Friday is the general window for
multiple periods of heavy rainfall. Overall recent antecedent
conditions have been dry for much of the CWA. However, for any
precip that can train over the same locations with efficient rain
producing cells could create localized flooding impacts. With the
uncertainties mentioned above, rainfall amounts and their
locations will continue to be revised as the event approaches.
Lastly, rain and storm chances for this forecast hold on into the
weekend for portions of the CWA before the remaining form of the
low pressure system weakens and or exits.

Temperatures for the week ahead remain above seasonal average
into Wednesday, and then fall back into the 70s/80s for highs
late week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few
showers will be possible early this morning in the vicinity of
KMLC and KFSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  66  89  73 /  20   0  10   0
FSM   87  65  92  72 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   92  67  93  73 /  30  10  10   0
BVO   84  63  86  69 /  10   0  10  10
FYV   84  60  87  67 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   81  61  86  68 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   87  66  90  71 /  20  10  10   0
MIO   83  62  84  69 /  10   0  10  10
F10   88  66  91  72 /  20   0  10   0
HHW   89  67  94  72 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05