641
FXUS64 KTSA 081745
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - Significantly colder temperatures will move in behind a strong cold
   front tonight through Monday night.

 - Widespread hard freeze with high potential for a localized killing
   freeze in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Sunday
   night/Monday morning; Freeze Warning in effect from 9 PM
   Sunday until 9 AM Monday.

 - Near to above normal temperatures return mid through late next
   week. Dry weather will continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A deep trough is building into the central United States. Surface
analysis shows relatively tight isobar packing along and behind a
cold front, which is current moving into western Oklahoma. Warm but
otherwise quiet weather will persist into the early afternoon,
with temperatures then cooling as a cold front enters northeast
OK. The cold front will move through the area by this evening. The
air is much too dry to support any precipitation.

Winds will gust to 15-30 mph behind the front for a few hours before
diminishing somewhat. However, a secondary push of colder air
arrives overnight and reinvigorates wind speeds. Atmospheric
profiles moisten slightly, with perhaps a few sprinkles or
flurries overnight, but measurable precipitation is very
unlikely. Temperatures Sunday morning will bottom out from the mid
30s in the north to mid 40s in the south, with colder wind
chills.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Cold advection continues during the day Sunday, partially
offsetting diurnal heating, with the result being temperatures
slowly climbing into the mid to upper 40s in the north and low 50s
in the south. Winds will remain gusty until sundown on Sunday,
with gusts of 15-30 mph. A few sprinkles or flurries Sunday
morning are possible, but most areas will see nothing.

With clear skies, lighter winds, and a cold/dry airmass in place,
Sunday night into Monday looks very cold. Low to mid 20s are
expected in the north and mid to upper 20s in the south. EPS EFI
temperature values show values around -0.8, which implies a
fairly unusual event for this time of year. Similarly NAEFS
temperature percentiles bottom out around the 1st-2nd percentile
for this time of year. With a widespread hard freeze nearly
certain at this point, went ahead and upgraded the Freeze Watch to
a Warning. Take any needed precautions to protect outdoor plants
or property. Monday will remain cool with highs in the low 40s in
northwest AR, with mid 40s to near 50 F elsewhere.

Monday night into Tuesday remains chilly, with another freeze for
much of the area (coldest in northwest Arkansas). For the rest of
the forecast, it looks quiet. Temperatures will quickly warm back
into the 60s for most locations Tuesday, with mid to upper 70s
for highs by late in the week. No additional rain is expected
until at least next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The main aviation impacts through the next 24 hours will involve
wind shifts and periods of gusty winds, as well as periods of MVFR
ceilings mainly at the far NW AR sites. The initial wind shift
will begin to move through the terminals prior to 00Z, with a few
hours featuring wind gusts around 20 kts from the northwest.
There will be a shift to more westerly winds ahead of this main
wind shift early in the period. Wind speeds and gusts will likely
drop off this evening and persist past 06Z, with a longer period
of northerly winds following the main push of cold air early
Sunday morning. Expect gusts closer to 25 kts in most spots, in
addition to the aforementioned low clouds. Confidence remains
highest in prevailing MVFR ceilings at FYV/XNA/ROG, although
confidence is high enough in at least a brief period of such at
the NE OK sites and FSM to include a TEMPO group during the most
likely 2 to 3 hour period of their occurrence. The chance is
nonzero at MLC, as well, but confidence is not there to include a
mention for now. How quickly the lower ceilings lift is somewhat
in question, with BVO being the most likely to see their erosion
prior to 18Z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  48  25  47 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   44  51  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   42  52  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   35  45  21  45 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   35  44  20  43 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   36  42  23  41 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   40  48  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   35  43  21  43 /   0  10   0   0
F10   40  49  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   45  54  27  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 9 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for OKZ049-
     053>076.

AR...Freeze Warning from 9 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for ARZ001-
     002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22