947
FXUS65 KVEF 170529
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
928 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another weather system will impact the Desert Southwest on
  Monday and Tuesday, with widespread rain and mountain snow
  returning.

* Winter weather expected above 6000 feet, resulting in snow
  covered roadways and dangerous driving conditions in the Sierra,
  Spring Mountains, and higher elevations of the southern Great
  Basin.

* Active weather continues through the forecast period, with the
  following system expected late-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

The weather remains dynamic across the region today as a 558dm
low circulates across central Nevada. A -22C cold pool aloft
exists across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona as well,
which when combined with the sunshine this morning, has resulted
in convective showers and isolated thunderstorms focused over
Lincoln, Mohave and eastern Clark counties. Meanwhile, some light
rain and mountain snow continues to wrap around the back side of
the low, resulting in overcast skies and showers across Inyo
County and southwestern Nevada. This low will gradually shift east
this evening with precipitation chances dwindling overnight.
However, the flow pattern remains active with another storm on our
doorstep for Monday.

The next storm in line remains on track to influence mainly our
western zones Monday, before spreading another shot of widespread
rain and mountain into our eastern zones Tuesday. This system has
trended slightly slower as it digs into southern California
Monday, keeping precipitation chances mainly west of Las Vegas
through the day. As it pushes east Tuesday, diffluent flow aloft
and advection of 200-250% of normal precipitable water content
will favor another fairly widespread rainfall event - though rain
totals are expected to be less than the Saturday system. Improving
conditions are expected late Tuesday into Wednesday as the storm
system shifts east.

The biggest difference with this storm system compared to Saturday
will be the cooler air associated with it - and snow levels that
are more likely to impact mountain travel and recreation above
6000 feet. Notably, probabilities of 8 inches of more of storm
total snow have increased to 50% for Kyle, and 75% for Lee
Canyons in the Spring Mountains. We will continue to monitor
these trends for any upgrades of the winter headlines currently
out.

After a break midweek, another storm system may take aim at the
region Thursday into Friday. There remains a large degree of
uncertainty with this system, with some guidance handling the
storm system as an open wave which traverses the region, while
others close it off and dig it offshore, with virtually no impact
for our area. The more progressive solutions are generally
preferred and have greater ensemble membership, suggesting at
least a chance for light showers and high elevation snow, but a
large range in outcomes remains possible. As such, elevated
precipitation chances remain advertised in the extended range
along with continued cool temperatures. Ridging will build back
in over the weekend with dry conditions resuming and gradually
moderating temps.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Southerly breezes continue overnight with scattered to broken clouds
around 6kft. Probability for CIGs aob 6kft around 40% through 14z.
Winds should be lightest during the morning hours, becoming breezy
in the afternoon as they turn to the southeast. Probability of 10+
knots from a 120-160 direction is greater than 70% from 19z through
02z. CIGs around 6-7kft return during the afternoon, gradually
dropping overnight as precipitation chances increase.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Across the Mojave Desert
tonight, southerly to westerly breezes continue with few to
scattered clouds between 6-8kft. Across the southern Great Basin and
portions of the Owens Valley, expecting scattered to broken clouds
between 3-6kft. On Monday, southerly to easterly breezes encompass
the area, strongest across our western zones where gusts 15-30 knots
are expected. Precipitation will begin to spill over the Sierra
during the afternoon and evening hours, bringing reduced CIGs and
visibilities.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

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