986
FXUS65 KVEF 110729
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1229 AM PDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Daily afternoon to evening isolated thunderstorm chances will
  continue through the week, with the greatest chances over higher
  terrain and some storms spreading into adjacent valleys. Storm
  chances will increase in the mid week.

* The high pressure is pushing eastward leading to cooling
  temperatures through the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The push of monsoonal moisture increases over the
next few days, leading to better chances for isolated storms today
and a slightly earlier start. Storms begin to build in the
southern portions of the CWA by the late morning and chances spread
north into the afternoon. The late night storm activity to the
east doesn`t look to push as much cloud cover into the area,
allowing for more uniform heating and the energy needed to start
that initial convection. Shorter-term models begin to pull back
storm chances into the evening for all but eastern San Bernardino,
which will see lingering chances into the early night. Wednesday
and Thursday will offer fairly similar environments for
convection, with models hinting at slightly longer lasting storm
chances into Thursday night. The pattern breaks for Friday, with
much lower storm chances that afternoon, and calmer conditions
for the weekend.

While the exiting high pressure will allow for more convection
over the next few days, it will also call for a cooling trend
through the end of the work week. Expect Heat risk to drop off in
the mid week as temperatures begin to reduce back to near average
for this time of year. Lows look to fall into the 70s and 80s
while highs reduce into the 90s to lower 100s. Temperatures look
to rebound slightly into the weekend, but not significantly.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...A dry night with typical light wind patterns are expected
overnight. On Tuesday, south-southeast winds will develop late
morning and afternoon. Wind speeds over 10KT are likely, especially
after 20Z. Occasionally gusts over 15KT are possible with the winds
in the afternoon. Convection is expected to develop around the
terminals Tuesday afternoon. Low confidence if thunderstorms will
directly impact the terminals, will need to see how things develop,
with heavy rain, lightning, and CIGs to 8000ft possible with any
storms. Outflows are possible as well from distant storms.
Convection should wane after sunset though showers may linger
through 09Z. After an convective influences from the afternoon on
winds wanes Tuesday evening, typical overnight south winds under 8KT
are expected. VFR skies with CIGs around 15kft-20kft are expected
through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Any lingering showers
will end across the region. Additional showers and isolate
thunderstorms may shift into southern Mohave County after 09Z as
decay storms from southwest Arizona drift north. In addition to
showers, south sot Southeast winds over 10KT with occasional gusts
over 20KT are possible through the morning in the Colorado River
Valley. Winds will calm down by Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, typical
wind patterns are expected overnight into Tuesday. Convection will
develop again Tuesday afternoon across much of the region. Any
storms could produce lightning, heavy rain, sudden gusty winds, and
CIGs below 8000ft. The highest risk for thunderstorms and outflow
winds will be in California where KDAG and KBIH should see direct
impacts, with a lower risk at all other TAF sites. Outside of
convective influences, south to southwest winds around 10KT will
develop Tuesday afternoon. Winds and convection will diminish after
sunset Tuesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Murdock
AVIATION...Nickerson

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