474
FXUS63 KAPX 081157
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
657 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Preceding SSW flow lake effect snow expected before widespread lighter
 synoptic snowfall fills in across the rest of the area.

-Another system brings more snow to the region Tuesday night -
 Wednesday. Additional lake effect snow likely in its wake Wednesday
 evening - Thursday.

-Sharply colder with more snow, both synoptic and lake effect,
 Friday through the weekend, and even into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Currently sitting beneath the influences of a pretty strong surface
high pressure that has allowed for clearing across much of interior
northern lower. Some lingering land-lake convergence snow showers
ongoing across Whitefish Bay, leaking eastward into the Sault...
along with the NW and far NE lower coastlines as well. Those
interior clearing areas have seen temperatures plummet to around or
well below zero, so anticipating some impressive morning lows across
the typical interior iceboxes... perhaps dipping below -15 in
places.

Looking ahead, a series of upstream waves are cresting a western
NOAM ridge and spilling into the Dakotas as I type this discussion.
The first of these waves (a clipper system) will produce the first
of several rounds of snow set to impact the region through the week
as ample cold air remains in place. This first round of snow will
lead to the production of a preceding SSW flow band of lake effect
snow that will set its sights on portions of the NW lower lakeshore
(primarily Grand Traverse Bay and south) along with Beaver Island
and especially western portions of Mackinac and Chippewa counties...
and to a lesser extent, eastern Mackinac county as well. This band
should materialize into the afternoon hours, and will lead to
hazardous travel due to reduced visibilities, along with snow-
covered roads. Drifting snow is a concern as well, particularly
along the US 2 corridor where SW winds may gust as high as 30 - 40
mph this evening into tonight. Once this wave gets over us later
tonight, lighter synoptic snows build in across the remainder of the
region... with most spots seeing a general 1 to 3 inches of
accumulation by Tuesday afternoon.

The aforementioned areas will obviously see more. For those
highlighted NW lower zones (Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee) ,
anticipating a general 3 to 6 inches of accumulation... Beaver
Island 4 to 7 inches of accumulation... western Mack will see a
general 4 to 8, locally 11+ inches... western Chippewa a
general 4 to 7 inches... and eastern Mackinac (west of I-75) a
general 3 to 6 inches. Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued for all of these zones, with the exception of western
Mackinac, which will be placed under a Winter Storm Warning.

Tuesday Afternoon: In the wake of this system`s quick passage, some
lingering lake effect snow will be left for us to contend with as
winds trend more west to west-southwest. Primary area of concern
from this would be the Tip of the Mitt, with potential for the
heaviest band to materialize with a Little Traverse Bay convergence
zone, which could send a period of heavier lake snows as far east as
the I-75 corridor in Indian River. A few additional inches of
accumulation will be possible through 00z Tuesday, which could
prolong or even expand (Emmet, Cheboygan... Charlevoix?)
headlines for this timeframe. For details regarding the next
system quick the heels of this clipper, please see the Long Term
discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tuesday night - Thursday: The next system will be a bit of a tricky
one to dissect, but nonetheless, guidance is in pretty good
agreement that this system will produce widespread snowfall across
the region, with particular focus on northern lower. Probabilities
for 5" of snow are maximized across northern lower, as high as 60%
in places. Latest trends suggest that the farther south one goes of
the Bridge, the heavier the snowfall amounts... to an extent. This
system has its origins from the Gulf of Alaska, so it`s got
plentiful moisture, but still looks to have quite the warm advection
response with it. Left entrance jet dynamics should promote
plentiful diffluence to support a narrow concentration of heavy snow
rates... but it will all depend on if this excellent forcing can
make it all the way through Minnesota and Wisconsin to us. As such,
SLRs remain a concern... and there is a non-zero chance that rain
mixes in at times across Saginaw Bay as temps swell above freezing
by Wednesday morning when the system makes its passage. In general,
this looks like a 3 to 6 inch snowfall from Tuesday night through
Wednesday afternoon across northern lower, with potential for
locally higher amounts. A general 2 to 4 inches seems reasonable
across eastern upper. Once this system passes, NW flow kicks in and
lake effect snowfall will prolong the snows across the snowbelts
through Thursday, with additional accumulations and travel impacts
likely.

Friday / Weekend: Another quick moving wave bulldozes through the
region... albeit a touch moisture starved. Nonetheless, this will
have just enough synoptic moisture with it to coincide with an
arctic airmass surge, with 850mb temps dipping as low as -17 to -21C.
Thus, with a very low DGZ, there is some potential for dendritic
growth to be stunted some, which could put a cap on snowfall
amounts... however, with gusty winds and small flake sizes,
this could lead to issues with lower visibilities given more of
a powdery snow composition, and with temps falling so low, road
treatment may be slower / less effective.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Sites are currently VFR with light and VRB winds. Winds turn
S/SW after 18Z and will strengthen to 8 to 12 with G20 to 25kts.
Winds will remain elevated for the remainder of the period.
Around 00Z -SN will move in from the west and start to impact
KMBL. Around 06Z, -SN will arrive at KCIU/KTVC with all seeing
vis reductions under more moderate SN. KPLN could see -SN during
this time as well, however chances remain low at this time.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ020-025-031-086-098.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ095.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     MIZ096.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Tuesday for LHZ348-349.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...ELD