811
FXUS63 KAPX 091142
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
642 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating lake effect snow continues through today. Highest accumulations
  expected near the Lake Michigan and Huron lakeshores,
  especially Leelanau, Cheboygan, and Presque Isle counties.

- Additional lake effect snow sets in Monday and Monday night.

- More light rain/snow possible through midweek with warmer
  temps for the second half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 331 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Expansive longwave troughing will continue to dig across the eastern
half of the country today and tonight as an embedded amplified
trough pivots over the Great Lakes. The primary jet max punching
across the Ohio Valley will provide some upper-level support to
deepen a relatively weak cyclone currently centered over the
Indiana/Kentucky border as it treks towards New England today.

Forecast Details:

As has been discussed in previous forecast cycles, a tricky forecast
evolution continues to unfold across northern Michigan today into
tonight. Of primary focus has been the well-advertised convergence
band with some embedded mesovortex development that has set up just
offshore of northwest lower over Lake Michigan so far tonight.
Additional mesovortices have been rotating across parts of far
northern Chippewa county -- including Sault Ste. Marie. Over far
northern Lake Huron, lake effect snow showers have begun to develop
and will become another focus for later this morning and afternoon.
Will discuss these separate areas below:

Northwest lower -- This banding is the primary concern over the next
several hours. Slight land breeze development has aided convergence
and thus snowfall intensity, albeit the majority has fallen over the
open waters. That said, webcam footage from Lake Leelanau shows snow
covered ground and roads -- perhaps correlating to around 1-2" of
snowfall so far if having to guess. With stronger north-component
synoptic flow and aforementioned troughing moving overhead, current
confidence is that this activity will be shunted over parts of
northwest lower in the coming hours this morning. Several inches of
snow is expected across parts of northwest lower underneath this
band, including localized totals of 6"+ where embedded mesovortices
rotate through -- most likely over Leelanau county. Heaviest
snowfall is expected through this morning, tapering off this
afternoon as activity works south.

Northeast lower -- While snow showers have just begun offshore,
mesovortex development with this lake effect activity will become
the main focus later this morning through this afternoon. Current
confidence is that this activity will sit offshore through the
morning, eventually rotating over parts of Cheboygan and Presque
Isle counties by late morning/early afternoon. This activity carries
similar potential to banding over northwest lower discussed above --
several inches will be possible for parts of northeast lower where
lake effect works inland, including the potential for 6"+ where the
heaviest snowfall associated with mesovortex activity tracks -- most
likely over eastern Cheboygan and western Presque Isle counties at
this time. For this reason, Cheboygan county has been added to the
Winter Weather Advisory. Of note, confidence in higher totals have
decreased further south along the Lake Huron shoreline. Based on
latest observations and guidance, current confidence is that the
main show later today will be associated with the aforementioned
activity above and that additional lake effect/enhanced banding will
struggle over other parts of Lake Huron due to relatively dry air in
the low levels. A few inches of snow remains in the forecast for
many areas of northeast lower as activity over northern Lake Huron
works south, but this appears to be less robust at the moment than
previously thought.

Primary impacts across the area with any activity will be high
snowfall rates leading to potentially hazardous travel conditions.
Impressive low-level moisture depth and enhanced forcing will
support snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour within the heaviest snow --
leading to quick accumulations of snow on roadways and rapid drops
in visibility. Additionally, any remaining wet accumulations on
roads this evening may freeze overnight as temperatures drop into
the teens and low 20s for many areas after snowfall ends.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Day 2-3 (Monday - Tuesday):

After a brief lull in precip chances for most areas, lake effect
snow sets back in late Monday morning/Monday afternoon across
northwest lower and eastern upper. Deep saturation evident in
forecast soundings will support a relatively brief round of heavy
lake effect snow, potentially producing several inches of snow near
and south of Grand Traverse Bay by Tuesday morning. Changing wind
direction, quickly approaching ridging, and associated dry low-level
air will work to cap higher snowfall totals, but localized areas of
6" or more cannot be ruled out.

Days 4-7 (Wednesday - Saturday):

Broad area of low pressure passes treks across Ontario and the far
northern Great Lakes through the middle of the week, bringing
another round of precip chances to the region. Sufficient moisture
will support a lake effect rain/snow mix early Wednesday into
Thursday given marginal temperatures near freezing. Best chances for
snow to mix in will be across inland higher terrain areas with the
coolest temperatures. Otherwise, temperatures look to gradually warm
with dry conditions in store through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Lake effect snow showers will continue across much of northern
Michigan today -- particularly near the Lake Michigan and Lake Huron
shorelines over the next several hours. Snow showers have already
began at APN, and are expected to impact TVC and MBL in the next few
hours as heavier banding slowly works south. Drops to IFR/LIFR VSBYs
are expected in heavier lake effect bands, along with drops to MVFR
CIGs. Lake effect snow is expected to move away from TAF sites by
this afternoon, leaving VFR conditions in place at all TAF sites
into this evening. North-northeast winds around 10 kts with gusts to
20-25 kts look to continue into this evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ017-
     018-024-030.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ020-
     025-026-031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Monday for LHZ347.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Monday for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Monday for LMZ344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Monday for LMZ323-342.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...DJC