479
FXUS63 KAPX 010345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms later Monday and Tuesday.

- Unsettled weather pattern mid to late next week with rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over the
Eastern US late this evening...lending to mainly clear skies
across our entire CWA attm. Meanwhile...upstream cold front has
moved into the Upper Mississippi Valley...producing some weak
convection across portions of Minnesota and Western Wisconsin.
High pressure will slowly slide further east overnight. Mid and
high level moisture/clouds will gradually increase from west to
east across our CWA overnight. Otherwise...expect another dry
night across our Northwoods...with overnight lows cooling into
the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Uneventful conditions continue into tonight with ridging continuing
to work its way off to our east. Expect increasing high clouds,
comfortably cool temperatures and light southwest winds tonight.
Not nearly as cool as the last couple of nights with lows
ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Attention will then turn
to a strung out trough currently evident on satellite imagery
extending from central Canada all the way down to the Gulf
coast states. This system is being stretched and becoming more
strung out as it crawls to the east. Model guidance shows
moisture splitting to our north and south seemingly trying to
bypass northern Michigan. At this point it looks like areas
along and south of M-72 have the best shot of a few showers
Saturday afternoon. Instability looks rather meager so do not
anticipate any embedded thunder at this time (little to no mixed
layer cape). Highs generally in the low and mid 70s with partly
to mostly cloudy skies. Winds remaining generally out of the
southwest at 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts approaching 20 mph or
so.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Short waves split and or clip northern Michigan to the north and
south Saturday night with scattered showers. Then zonal flow is
expected on Sunday, although heights may begin to rise later in the
day. Short wave and weakening frontal boundary associated with low
pressure system well to the north approaches later Monday with some
scattered showers and storms, some chances linger into Tuesday.
Convoluted pattern thereafter but perhaps a more substantial slow
moving upper low drops into the Upper Midwest - Ontario with
rotating pieces of energy around the center in the vicinity of
northern Michigan. Thus, unsettled with shower and storm chances
certainly remain into the mid to later portions of this upcoming
week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Energy passes in the vicinity of north and southern portions of
northern Michigan Saturday evening into the overnight. This will
produce some showers across the region, but seems the best chance to
see activity will be south of M-72 and across the eastern UP. Zonal
flow takes over Sunday with dry conditions.

Next system approaches later Monday into Tuesday in the form of
energy aloft and a weakening frontal boundary. Guidance indicates
the potential for scattered showers and storms Monday evening and
night, then perhaps the potential for more storms Tuesday afternoon.
Although instability will be minor Monday night, quite a bit of
instability is possible Tuesday afternoon as dewpoints rise into the
60s. However, slight short wave ridging is currently progged. So
definitely some questions on initiation/coverage but given a trigger
(lake breeze?) could be some scattered thunderstorm activity Bulk
shear/winds aloft are weak though and thus looking like a minimal
severe threat at this time.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests an unsettled period of
weather mid to late next week. Messy upper low dives down into
Ontario and/or slowly into the Upper Midwest. Current idea is pieces
of energy will rotate around the slowly moving upper low center thus
resulting in shower and perhaps a few storm chances through the end
of the week. Likely getting more showery and less stormy with time
as deeper moisture gets shunted/remains to the south. All in all,
could be a period of "cooler" and unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Large area of strong high pressure currently centered over much
of the Eastern US will push eastward off of the Atlantic Coast
over the next 24 hours. An upstream cold front will push into
the Western Great Lakes region on Saturday...bringing a chance
of showers to Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan by Saturday
evening. Light southerly winds overnight will strengthen to
around 10 kts on Saturday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MLR