561
FXUS63 KAPX 301028
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
628 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms confine themselves to eastern upper and
  northeast lower with time. Localized heavy rainfall possible.

- Trending drier through much of the rest of the week Tuesday
  and beyond.

- Turning warmer and humid for the 4th of July holiday weekend,
  with potential for unsettled weather at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Current surface analysis showcases weak surface low pressure across
northern Ontario, with a warm front moving eastward into Lake Huron
as a cold front slowly progresses eastward across western upper
Michigan south to the Cedar Rapids, IA area. Moisture return well
underway, with PWATs generally from 1.2 to 1.5 in the wake of the
warm frontal passage. A weak (but apparently sufficient enough) LLJ
interaction with remnant cold pool / outflow boundary in SE
Wisconsin underway across the south end of Lake Michigan has allowed
for some largely disorganized convection to blossom. Anticipating
that this activity will gradually spread northward through the
overnight hours, bringing spotty showers and perhaps some rumbles of
thunder into northern lower through Monday morning. Lack of shear
will continue the theme of largely disorganized activity moving
through, but with such a saturated thermodynamic profile, certainly
potential for some embedded downpours in the more robust updrafts
that manage to materialize. For our friends in the eastern Yoop,
drizzle and showers and build into the early morning hours,
generally tapering off by late morning.

Heading into the day today, anticipate that warm sector airmass to
give us another muggy and abnormally warm day with highs in the mid
to upper 80s for most, barring morning convection once again washing
us over and capping the airmass, knocking down daytime highs a
couple degrees. Should be noted that in this scenario storm coverage
would dramatically decrease for the afternoon hours on Monday.

As far as storm potential goes, could be a subtle downtick in
activity Monday morning, but anticipating that an uptick in forcing
from the approaching front will allow for diurnally driven
convection to materialize as MLCAPE bubbles up to 750 - 1250 J/kg by
late morning / early afternoon. With slightly increased forcing from
the approaching cold front, storm coverage will be on the increase.
In general, the best chances for daytime rain / storms will be
across the eastern Yoop, and across northern lower east of US 131,
only further increasing east of I-75 in northern lower. Severe
potential still looks limited, but non-zero.

Bulk shear of 15 to 25kts through the afternoon will support a pulse-
dominant single-cell mode for the most part... with weak flow
supporting widespread outflow boundary generation, so while looking
less likely than yesterday, suppose a few multicell clusters may try
to organize later in the day as shear subtly increases to 30+
kts and hodographs trend ever so slightly more linear. Nonetheless,
given the pulse tendencies, suppose a stronger to perhaps
marginally severe storm is possible during peak heating in any
convective cores aloft that collapse to the surface. Should also
be noted that slow storm motions definitely support a locally
torrential rain threat in any given storm as the continued
"juiced" airmass supports efficient rainfall. Definitely a
"jackpot shower" type of day... as getting right underneath any
given shower or storm will produce quite the rainstorm that will
be the equivalent of hitting triple 7s at your favorite slot
machine... where one spot gets deluged, but a mile or two away
gets a few hundredths of rain at best, if any. Would not be
overly surprised to see localized 2.00"+ rainfalls under these
storms whatsoever. Activity should decrease through the evening
as the dilapidated cold frontal boundary progresses through the
area, which should draw in cooler and somewhat less humid air
through the overnight hours, as temps settle anywhere from 55 to
65 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Ridging will build back into the region with time Tuesday, though
with some lingering moisture near Saginaw Bay, could see a slight
shower chance materialize in that area with diurnal heating.
Shortwave zips through to our north and east, with another moisture
starved cold front surging through on Wednesday, which could bring a
shower or rumble later in the day, but at this juncture,
anticipating this frontal passage occurs with minimal fanfare.
Ridging and return flow then really build into the Great Lakes
heading into the holiday weekend, which should bring more warm
weather to the area. Another wave looks to pass through at some
point over the holiday weekend, some time in the Saturday - Sunday
timeframe, which could return unsettled conditions to the area. Flow
looks to turn more zonal toward the end of the period, which should
return much more seasonable temperatures. Looking at highs in the
70s and 80s Tuesday, highs in the 80s Wednesday, cooling back into
the 70s and low 80s Thursday, before warming well into the 80s
Friday and Saturday. For overnight lows, anticipating cooler nights
in the 50s (perhaps some 40s) Tuesday - Thursday nights before some
milder to muggy nights materialize into the holiday weekend... lows
in the 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Generally VFR conditions through the day today, with the
potential for brief MVFR CIGs/VIS (mainly VIS) within any
heavier TSRA, best potential at KAPN. Could see VSBYs <3SM at
if +TSRA/+RA moves over the terminal, most likely from 17Z
through the afternoon hours. Farther west, from PLN down to MBL,
much of the activity should remain to the east during the
midday and afternoon hours. Chance for TSRA at KCIU as well,
enough to introduce PROB30 at the site. Winds remain light
outside of any stronger thunderstorm outflow, from the southwest
shifting to the west and northwest through the day. Activity
gradually wanes tonight.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JLD