591
FXUS64 KBMX 130510
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1210 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025

Central Alabama is flanked by an upper-level trough over the Central
Plains and subtropical ridging centered off the Florida Atlantic
coast. Deep flow is from the south to southwest which will promote
warm and humid conditions through the short term period (and
beyond). Moisture content is on the rise as evidenced by the
increased PWATs on our 12Z RAOB, and PWATs will continue to climb up
to around 2" by this evening. The humid conditions will result in
"feels like" temperatures in the mid 90s both today and tomorrow.

Additionally, rain chances will be gradually increasing each day
into the weekend, particularly as upper-level support increases as
the trough drifts eastward. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon which will be capable of producing heavy
downpours and some gusty winds. It`s possible we could see a
marginally severe storm this afternoon, but most of the activity
will be disorganized and diurnal. In this type of pattern, the sea
breeze will be active, and I suspect we will be seeing that activity
reach our south late in the day. Also, increased shortwave
energy/PVA will foster higher coverage of storms tomorrow and
perhaps a broken line of thunderstorms which will move from west to
east across the area. Again, some storms could be strong and cannot
rule out a short-lived marginally severe storm or two in this warm,
unstable airmass.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025

Only minor changes were made with this update to the long term
period. See previous discussion below.

87/Grantham

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025

The unsettled and tropical weather pattern will continue through
the upcoming weekend as diurnally-driven numerous to widespread
showers and storms remain in the forecast. Central Alabama will
remain wedged in between the weakening mid-level closed low/trough
to our northwest and 593 decameter ridge just off the Florida
Atlantic coast. Southwesterly flow will dominate over most of the
atmospheric profile, with plenty of synoptic lift and divergence
aloft as the mid-level trough axis slowly swings eastward across
the Deep South. Warm air and moisture advection is advertised to
keep stronger storms limited as lapse rates aloft become moist-
adiabatic and PWATs rise above 2 inches. As mentioned yesterday,
for folks who have outdoor activities planned over the weekend
you need to make preparations for at least a passing shower or
storm that will put a damper on things, but for the most part a
washout is not anticipated despite high overall PoPs during the
afternoon. With the high moisture content in the atmosphere,
showers and storms will be very efficient rainfall producers and
could lead to localized flooding within urban areas and poor
drainage locations.

Elevated rain and storm chances especially during the afternoon
hours remain in the forecast through Tuesday of next week, as we
remain stuck between the ridge to the southeast and 500mb
weakness to the northwest. By the end of the week, guidance trends
are now clearly indicating a very high likelihood of hot days
ahead as we go into mid-June. Upper level ridging is advertised to
greatly increase by Wednesday and Thursday of next week, sending
highs well into the 90s over consecutive days. Although the exact
location the building 500mb ridge remains in question across the
southern CONUS by late next week, the overall signal continues to
point toward a hot pattern with heat indices rising between 100
and 105 degrees each afternoon. Diurnally-driven scattered to
perhaps numerous summertime convective showers and storms would
also be in the forecast each day.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025

Most of the showers and storms have dissipated for the night. Some
patchy fog will be possible through sunrise along with MVFR/IFR
cigs. An increase in cumulus after 16z with showers and storms in
the west and south after 18z and then the northeast after 20z.
Looks like rain ends by 00z at TCL and then 1 to 2 hours later for
the rest of the sites.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values are forecast to remain above 50 percent for the next
several days as very moist air mass moves northward over the Deep
South. Daily rain chances will remain elevated as well. 20 ft
winds from the south to southwest should remain less than 7 mph
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  88  68  85 /  20  60  40  90
Anniston    70  86  71  85 /  20  60  40  80
Birmingham  71  88  71  85 /  20  70  40  90
Tuscaloosa  73  87  72  86 /  20  80  40  90
Calera      71  86  71  84 /  20  60  40  80
Auburn      71  86  72  86 /  20  60  30  80
Montgomery  71  89  72  89 /  20  70  30  80
Troy        71  89  71  89 /  20  70  30  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...16