374
FXUS63 KDVN 131047
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
547 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy and humid day today with chances for rain, especially
  along and south of I-80 as an upper level low lumbers into the
  area.

- Active pattern expected to continue this weekend with the
  possibility of pop-up showers and storms. Into next week,
  pattern becomes more organized and chances for strong to even
  severe storms return to the region.

- Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the
  period with slightly lower humidity this weekend before rich
  gulf moisture moves into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

An upper level low south of the area was slowly moving north and
east into the area this morning. Temperatures in the 60s with
dewpoints also in 60s were found region-wide. Rain showers
associated with this upper level were slowly moving across the
southern CWA. Moisture is expected to increase across the layer,
with dewpoints reaching into the upper 60s to low 70s across the
area today. Two things of interest in today`s forecast, first
the chances for showers and second the cloud cover and its
impact on temperatures and humidity today.

First, showers are expected to overspread the southern CWA this
morning. CAMs and synoptic models keep better QPF along and
south of I-80. Looking at lapse rates, thunder will be hard to
come by with these showers, but can`t rule it out completely.
With PWATs approaching 2 inches in our SE today, moderate to
heavy rain is possible with any shower. If convection can get
deep enough for lightning development, that storm will likely
lead to short-lived heavy rain leading to ponding of water and
reduced visibility. This will be isolated in nature and will
include in the HWO.

Looking at cloud cover, this will likely keep temperatures
cooler across the area. Highs in the mid to upper 70s are
expected. With dewpoints approaching 70 degrees, especially
along and south of I-80, it will feel quite humid across the
area. The higher Tds rapidly move east of the area tonight as
easterly flow north of the upper low tries to usher in drier and
cooler air overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Ridging builds west of the area at the start of the period, as
NW flow affects our area. This ridge flattens into the weekend
as return flow starts to bring warmer more moist air into the
area through the weekend. Multiple weak waves will transverse
the area through the weekend, leading to pop-up showers and even
some storms. Lapse rates don`t look at that impressive, so much
like today, think mostly showers are expected from this pattern
through the weekend. By Monday, PWATs over 2 inches move into
the area as H85 temps in the low 20Cs overspread the area.
Waves start to get more organized with the strongest wave
Wednesday into Thursday as temperatures above average are
forecast. This wave will bring better flow and shear to the
area. This will lead to strong and even severe storms across the
region next week. As earlier shifts noted, we are entering our
typical summer MCS pattern where actual forecast skill is
limited this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR cigs are becoming MVFR, especially at BRL and eventually MLI
today as an upper level low moves across the area. Rain showers
are making their way north towards MLI. This precip will miss
CID and DBQ. IFR cigs could occur at BRL especially with the low
overhead.  Otherwise, thunder is on the low end today.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs