968
FXUS63 KFGF 142325
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
625 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms into Saturday. The probability
  for severe storms is very low.

- There is a medium chance for thunderstorms early next week.
  Potential exists for strong to severe storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Scattered showers ongoing mainly along and north of Highway 2,
but more activity starting to move into the upper Sheyenne
basin from central ND. Amounts so far have been pretty light,
except for a few spots in Benson county that have received
around a tenth so far. Additional showers will continue into the
overnight, and amounts up to a quarter inch in some places look
to be still on the table. Lack of instability has kept lightning
activity at bay so far. Made some tweaks to POPs for current
radar trends.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...Synopsis...

Low pressure across the western Dakotas will slowly propagate
east/northeast over the next day or so, along with showers ahead of
this system. As the system evolves the upper ridge will flatten
becoming more zonal and eventually northwest flow aloft through the
period. Confidence is relatively high for this large scale pattern
to evolve given general agreement among ensemble
members/systems. Temperatures through the period will be near or
even slightly below normal.

..Showers/Storms into Saturday...

The strongest forcing and heaviest (most widespread) rainfall will
be along and north of the surface low track. Generally speaking, the
track will be west to east along the International border. Although
scenarios are not too widespread, there still remains minor
differences from ensemble member to ensemble member regarding the
track of the surface low, and a bit further south track would
bring an inch or two of rainfall to the northern parts of our
region. Instability very weak to nill, and do not expect much
for impacts other than whatever impacts a wetting rain may
bring. To the south of the surface low track coverage will be
more spotty.

...Severe Potential Early Next Week...

As another stronger wave propagates through Canada greater
instability will advect into the region, ahead of a cold front.
Multiple scenarios exist regarding how this will evolve, including
strength and timing differences, which will ultimately decide on
storm coverage and intensity - severe potential. ML/AI guidance
indicate a signal for severe storms Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Scattered showers affecting the more northerly TAF sites, so
have prevailing or VCSH in those areas and kept KFAR and KBJI
with Prob30 for some possible activity later tonight. Ceilings
are all VFR so far, but should see some MVFR ceilings come in
behind the rain later tonight into tomorrow morning. Some of the
models have some IFR ceilings at times, and from obs further
west it is not completely out of the question. For now just have
KDVL going to IFR but will take another look at the 06Z
issuance. Winds that are easterly around 10 to 15 kts will shift
around to the southeast, then southwest and then northwest by
the end of the period. Speeds will be mainly in the 10 to 15 kt
range but some gusts up to 25 kts are possible from the
northwest at the ND airports tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...JR