Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
722 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Issued at 715 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Band of mid clouds from Minot to Carrington continues to move
southeast and radar returns have indicating very light rain stil
in thet area from Minot to Harvey, but echoes are drying up as
they move into western fcst area. The fcst had some low pops thru
00z and then dry and will maintain dry this evening but watch
obs and radar.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Short term is rather quiet, with a stray chance of a sprinkle or
shower in the far western portions of the CWA this late afternoon as
a quick little wave moves along the upper level ridge. Otherwise,
most of the region will remain dry, with a slight breeze at times as
winds gust to 25mph in the valley through the afternoon. By the
evening temperatures cool and winds calm, with overnight lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

Tuesday, zonal flow aloft brings a quick moving wave across the
central plains. Current short term guidance suggests a track across
SD/NE clipping the southern portions of the CWA during the day
Tuesday and into the evening/overnight hours. Moisture is being
supplied from the Pacific NW, so little is there to work with.
However, enough is there to bring some quick QPF to the southern
valley into WC MN. QPF probabilities of up to 1/2 inch are 20-40%
for the southern valley and 10-20% north of I94. Chances for a trace
to 0.1 inches is common across the entire CWA Tuesday. Some
instability is noted, with slight MUCAPE of 250 j/kg allowing for
some embedded thunderstorms especially as you head further toward
SD. Isolated areas higher than 0.5 inches are possible in the
southern valley if a thunderstorm where to move over portions of
that area. Temperatures will be on the warmer side, with highs
throughout the region in the 60s. Impacts remain low through the
short term.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

A notable system moving through the Dakotas into Minnesota between
late Wed - Fri could bring impacts to the area, namely from
widespread excessive rainfall given the area`s current sensitivity
to flooding. This could have implications on ongoing and forecast
riverine and overland flooding, although severity and location is
unknown at this time.

Wed - Fri:

Ensemble guidance still strongly agrees that a notable mid level
shortwave trough out of the PacNW traverses the Northern Rockies
into the Northern Plains around Wed - Fri. While exact track of this
system is still uncertain, there is enough available moisture and
expected forcing for ascent to reside over the region. Cluster
analysis and NBM yields that at least 0.50 inches are likely for
most locations. Within the realm of possibility is an area of 1-2
inches of rainfall, possibly with a large footprint should the
deformation zone/wrap around precip move over the area. There is
even some potential for locally higher amounts up to 3 inches given
the potential for mesoscale forcing like fgen and instability
yielding moderate to heavy rainfall rates under thunderstorms and
strongest deformation banding. While location of higher precip
amounts remain uncertain, highest precip amounts will likely reside
in areas that see thunderstorms (more scattered, and localized in
coverage), as well as for locations under longer residence time
within deformation zone of the mid level wave (more widespread in
coverage). Given the saturated soils and ongoing flooding in
addition to the aforementioned reasons, WPC has introduced a slight
risk to their excessive rain outlook on Thursday. Again, this could
have implications on ongoing and forecast riverine and overland
flooding, although severity and location is unknown at this time.

While not as noteworthy, there is still a chance enough instability
eeks into the southern CWA to introduce potential for strong to
severe storms Thursday afternoon. Although confidence in location of
enough instability is uncertain at this time to make this potential
impact more noteworthy. Lastly, as the system strengthens, there is
enough cold air to wrap in behind the system to introduce the chance
for snow on the backside precipitation. While some raw output within
guidance shows potentially significantly snow accumulations, given
the time of year (mid May) and antecedent warm temps, it would be
hard to accumulate to bring noteworthy winter impacts.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 715 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

VFR thru the pd with high and mid level moisture. Winds east 5 to
12 kts tonight and more east-southeast 8 to 18kts Tuesday. Chance
for showers are south of DVL-FAR-FFM line.


Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Long duration, significant riverine flooding will continue over the
next seven days for numerous locations along the Red River and its
tributaries within eastern North Dakota into northwest and west-
central Minnesota. In addition to riverine flooding, overland
flooding resulting in road closures and washouts still persists
across portions of northeast North Dakota even well after the
responsible rainfall has ended. Overland flooding is also impacting
area agriculture in addition to impact to travel, specifically
delayed planting activities. Notable signatures indicating overland
flooding away from rivers are evident in recent satellite imagery
including Sentinel-2 and VIIRS/ABI flood extent products.

After a dry Monday and Tuesday, precipitation chances increase yet
again Wed - Fri. While Wed should see scattered shower activity
yielding little precip, Thu - Fri should see widespread
precipitation with at least 0.50 inches likely, possibly exceeding 2
inches in some locations. This will likely impact rivers in some
way, although to what degree and location is uncertain at this time.
Additionally, overland flooding may redevelop and/or worsen in some
locations that see highest amounts closer to 2 inches.

The current river forecasts account for observed precipitation as
well as forecast precipitation over the next 24 hours. They do
not include the the Wed - Fri precipitation. Thus the forecasts
are likely to change as they account for this upcoming event`s

Red River mainstem...

Minor to major flooding is ongoing and/or forecast for the mainstem
Red River. Highest river levels reside in the northern Valley with
Pembina and Drayton remaining within or near major flood stage
through the next seven days. Oslo has finally dropped out of major
flood stage and is expected to slowly decrease through at least mid

This week`s precipitation will likely impact rivers in some way,
although to what degree and location is uncertain at this time.

Minnesota tributaries...

Most Minnesota tributaries have crested or are near crest. Minor to
moderate flooding mainly resides near the mainstem Red River.

This week`s precipitation will likely impact rivers in some way,
although to what degree and location is uncertain at this time.

North Dakota tributaries...

While most North Dakota tributaries have crested, the Sheyenne River
continues to remain focus with river levels between moderate and
major flood stage. The Sheyenne River at Kindred and Harwood as well
as the Diversion at West Fargo will remain in moderate to major
flooding through the next seven days. Sentinel-2 satellite imagery
shows breakout water near the Sheyenne, Maple, and Red rivers
confluence further up the Sheyenne River to near Kindred. Along the
Pembina River, the persistent flood wave is showing signs of ending,
at least temporarily pending upcoming precipitation. Neche has
dropped below flood stage, but again satellite imagery and area
reports indicate backwater and breakout water issues closer to the
mainstem Red River still persists.

This week`s precipitation will likely impact rivers in some way,
although to what degree and location is uncertain at this time.



SHORT TERM...Spender
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