Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161502

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1002 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Issued at 1001 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Light radar returns associated with very light precip
(sprinkles/flurries), with a few reports at the surface of vis
reductions at 3sm near our CWA possibly associated with
measurable light snow. Short term guidance still shows minimal QPF
amounts (highest outliers near 0.01). There are a few breaks
between areas of stratus/high clouds, but trend will be towards
this filling back in. Overall, still expecting minimal impacts
from any rain/snow today and only adjustments during this update
were to match near term trends a little better (forecast is on

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Light rain reported at Devils Lake this hour with saturation to
the east over the valley suspect this morning. Will maintain
slight chance to the valley today with best chances west of the
valley as the front sags south.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Challenge and concern for the period will be the low impact
weather with a slight chance for precip across eastern ND today.
Weak NW flow aloft will bring a 500mb trough across the area with
mid level moisture there is a slight chance for a few rain/snow
mix showers today across eastern ND. Will see most areas
experience a majority of the day with clouds which will limit
daytime highs to the mid 40s with a few 50s possible along the
eastern edge of the FA in the Baudette to Bemidji to Park Rapids
area where fewer clouds are possible and then would allow warmer
temps to be realized. North winds will be 10 to 20 mph again

Tonight skies will clear from north to south with temps falling
into the low 20s north to low 30s south. These clear skies and
weak ridging and weak sfc high pressure will bring temps closer to
normal for highs Saturday with low to mid 50s returning to the

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

The primary opportunity for impactful weather in the long term will
be present from Sunday into early Monday as a cold front crashes
through the forecast area. As a result, main impacts will be the
potential for a light rain and snow mix across the region, along
with cool, below normal temperatures to start the week. Otherwise,
quieter weather will be accompanied by a gradual warming trend
throughout the week.


The upper level pattern will be defined by generally north-
northwesterly flow aloft across the long term period. Saturday
evening should remain quiet ahead of the shortwave progged to
traverse the region on Sunday. There are some discrepancies between
ensembles on the timing of frontal passage on Sunday, but
regardless, warmer, near normal temperatures are expected ahead of
the front, with cooler, slightly below normal temperatures behind
it. Temperature differences aside, some precipitation may be
possible with this system. Although overall moisture and forecasted
QPF are certainly nothing overly impressive, the attendant cold
front in conjunction with the passing shortwave will provide an
ample mechanism for lift. The most likely result will be a rain and
snow mix as the cold front progresses through the forecast area.

Following the frontal passage on Sunday, a breezy to windy northerly
wind is expected on Monday, and will help to keep temperatures
across the region below normal. The upper level pattern is also
expected to shift toward northwesterly flow as ridging aloft settles
in over the western CONUS. This flow pattern will be conducive for
quiet weather across the region and gradually warming temperatures
for the remainder of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

MVFR CIGs slow to develop this morning in the valley. Still
expecting to see MVFR CIGs today at FAR and GFK. North winds 10 to
15kts. Some late day to overnight clearing is expected.



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