406
FXUS63 KFGF 181909
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
209 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms in parts of southeastern North Dakota
  starting Wednesday evening, spreading into Minnesota on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...Synopsis...

A classic August pattern is in place over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. As of this afternoon, we are sandwiched between
ridging over the western US, and troughing over the Great Lakes.
This leaves us in northwesterly flow aloft through the next several
days. This upper level flow will propagate a few shortwaves through
the region. The first shortwave late Wednesday brings the
potential for showers and a few thunderstorms. A few showers and
thunderstorms may linger into Thursday. Another wave arrives
during the second half of the weekend. Neither of these systems
look to bring heavy, widespread rainfall, but rather more
localized shower/thunderstorm type activity. Therefore, the
probability for widespread precipitation over the next seven
days remains low. Temperatures will remain seasonal most days
(highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s). As western US ridging
tries to translate eastward early next week, temperatures do
look to warm a few degrees, into the mid 80s or so.

...Showers and Storms Wednesday into Thursday...

As a shortwave tracks southeastward out of Canada on Wednesday,
showers and a few thunderstorms will develop Wednesday west of
this FA, tracking into southeastern ND during the evening.
Instability is meager (up to about 500 J/Kg of MUCAPE), which
looks to be the major limiting factor for severe storms. The
latest SPC day 2 convective outlook has removed this FA from the
level 1 out 5 marginal risk, which conceptually makes sense
based the poor instability parameter space. Showers and storms
will translate eastward Wednesday night. A few more storms may
develop Thursday afternoon in MN, but again instability looks to
be lacking. Lightning will be the primary threat with any storm
that develops.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR throughout the TAF period. For this afternoon, a FEW to SCT
deck at 5,000 AGL will develop at KDVL, KGFK, KTVF and KBJI with
northwest winds up to 10 knots. A few hours of gusts during the
peak of the afternoon are forecasted at KGFK and KFAR. However,
winds will quickly die off this evening, becoming light and
variable. Winds will remain relatively light Wednesday morning,
generally out of the southwest at under ten knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty