000
FXUS63 KFGF 032018
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
318 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Key Messages:

-Shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening, a stray
stronger storm can`t be ruled out in lakes country.

-Cooling temperatures and windy conditions Wednesday into Thursday.

-Patchy Fog is possible within lakes country Wednesday morning.

Discussion:

Main synoptic system out a SW flow aloft continues to move across
the area today bringing showers and isolated storms. The main band
of showers and storms are situated over Lakes country into north
central MN. These showers and embedded storms will continue to shift
toward the NNE through the rest of the afternoon and into the
evening. The showers and storms have helped stabilize the airmass
over MN, limiting the severe potential for this evening across the
area. A stray stronger storm can`t be ruled out this evening, but
the chance of that happening are <5% at this time. Otherwise, short
range guidance has redevelopment with the frontogentic forcing
entering central ND for the evening and overnight. MUCAPE is <500
J/kg, and shear remains around 30-35kts. This helps limit the
thunderstorm potential. Coverage would be scattered and affect the
Devils Lake Basin first before shifting toward the east through the
night. Winds ahead of the frontal passage will be breezy, with gusts
up to 30kts possible on an isolated basis. This should start to
diminish post sunset as the mixing diminishes.

Patchy fog may be possible in our far east (lakes country) during
the Wednesday morning hours. Rain showers and lighter winds will
keep it isolated at best. A lull in activity is expected during the
day on Wednesday before another system works its way in by the
evening and overnight hours. Flow aloft turns toward the NW as a
ridge builds in the western United States. A system tracks along the
flow by Wednesday evening increasing the chances for showers across
the area. Areas along and north of I-94 have the highest likelihood
of seeing rain. 50-70% chance of seeing up to 0.5 inches along and
north of Highway 2 from Wednesday into Thursday.

Cold air advection begins to shift into the area by Wednesday, with
high temperatures making it only into the low to mid 60s. Thursday
morning lows drop down into the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Key Messages:

-Strong winds are expected to impact the region Thursday, with gusts
up to 45kts possible in eastern ND and into the Red River Valley.

-Passing system to the north brings rain too areas along and north
of Interstate 94 Thursday and Friday.

-Frost/Freeze across a majority of the area Saturday morning, with
cool temperatures.

-Warm up end of the weekend and into next week as a ridge amplifies
out west.

Discussion:

On the back side of the passing low pressure system a jet develops
in the lower levels. Guidance ranges between 45-55kts at the 925-
850mb level. Lapse rates are 8.5-9.5 C/km in a majority of
ensembles, with outliers being slightly stronger or weaker. The
forecast area will be able to tap into winds aloft during the late
morning through the early evening hours on Thursday. Strong cold
advection through the 850mb level, strong lapse rates, NW flow aloft
and at the surface, and the presence of a jet at the 925-850mb level
all contribute to strong winds Thursday. 50-70% chance eastern ND
and into the Red River Valley could see up to 45kt gusts during the
afternoon and evening hours. Outliers (20%) show weaker winds of
only up to 35kts indicating less mixing and weaker cold air
advection. A <10% chance we could see stronger winds if we are able
to tap into the 50-55kt winds aloft. None the less, strong winds are
looking more and more likely Thursday late morning and into the
evening hours. Lingering breezy winds will continue to be possible
overnight Thursday and into Friday afternoon as continued strong CAA
moves in from Canada. Winds will be weaker on Friday, but still
reach up to 30kts for gusts in eastern ND and the Red River Valley.

Areas east of the valley will see breezy conditions both Thursday
and Friday, with gusts up to 30kts on an isolated basis. The trees
will help keep the winds much lower out in the forested areas. Areas
of rain will move through the area both Thursday into Friday, with
up to 0.5 inches possible along and north of Highway 2. Instability
is limited to less than <250 J/kg and moisture is cut off from the
Gulf. This limits the thunderstorm chances for the area.

From the strong CAA, temperatures will drop quickly for Friday into
Saturday. Highs on Friday reach the mid 40s to lower 50s and
Saturday the lower 50s. Frost/Freeze is looking likely (60-70%)
Saturday morning, with temperatures hitting the lower 30s around
sunrise. A ridge continues to amplify through the long term and
pushes 1000-500mb heights further north end of the weekend and early
next week. This help to reheat the region, with highs hitting the
60s Sunday through Tuesday next week. Dry conditions ensue end of
the weekend and into early next week.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are moving through
the southern Red River Valley towards the NE. This will begin to
affect FAR within the next several hours and later affect BJI,
TVF, and GFK within the next 4-5 hours. Otherwise, winds have
started to increase this afternoon, with gusts approaching 30kts
within the Red River Valley this is diurnally driven and
associated with the main system moving through the area. We
should see winds decrease post sunset and shift toward the NW by
02-05z. Ceilings have been VFR for all sites, with DVL moving in
and out of MVFR at times as the main cloud deck sits over them.
All sites should remain VFR through the evening. Around 03-05z
ceilings drop to MVFR for all sites through 12z. Near the end of
the TAF period, the main cloud deck shifts eastward and ceilings
improve gradually toward VFR from west to east.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Spender
LONG TERM...Spender
AVIATION...Spender