Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180439

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1139 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Like last night, temperatures are highly variable. It looks like
the Fosston area could be a local cool spot, so dropped lows there
a few more degrees. No other changes needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High pressure moving thru northern MN and the fcst area will see
south-southeast wind develop thru the night. Not strong and with
warming of the low levels will see lows warmer than last night.

Next upper low over western Montana and this will move east-
southeast into South Dakota by late Wednesday. Moisture with this
system will spread thru south central into western ND Wed aftn
with risk of showers/t-storms...with ern edge of risk Devils
Lake-Valley City region after 21z Wed. Most of the precip chances
though hold off til well beyond this period. Warmer airmass moving
in so will see temps climb to a bit above normal values with low-
mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

For Wednesday afternoon through Friday, chances for showers and
thunderstorms develop as an upper low tracks from central ND toward
the Great Lakes region. Rainfall totals are expected to be the
greatest along and south of Highway 200, where event total amounts
of over an inch are likely. With precipitable water values over an
inch, isolated event total amounts of several inches are possible in
that area, depending on where the best forcing occurs. Lesser
amounts are expected further north, except for with thunderstorms.
With weak deep layer shear and limited instability for much of this
activity, severe weather is not anticipated Wednesday night through
Friday. While there is good overall model agreement in the track of
this system, there are some significant differences in the details.
The location of the stacking of the surface and upper lows is still
quite uncertain and may prompt chances for additional scattered
showers and storms through the day Friday for portions of the area.
With increased cloud cover and the close proximity of the upper
level low, Thursday will be quite cool with highs likely only
reaching the 60s and 70s.

For Friday night through Sunday morning, surface high pressure and
upper ridging aloft push through the Plains, resulting in a period
of quiet, dry, and warmer weather. Temperatures will rebound to near
normal values for the weekend, with highs in the 80s and lows in the

For Sunday through Monday night, chances for showers and
thunderstorms move through along and ahead of a front draping into
the Northern Plains. A general model consensus suggests a low
pressure system departing from the Canadian Rockies will wrap up
over western Ontario during this timeframe. Depending on how the
timing works out, several ingredients associated with this system
suggest potential to bring the next chance for severe weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

No real changes from the 00Z set of TAFs. Did show more cloud
cover moving in close to 00Z Thu, with a VCSH at KDVL and KFAR.
Confidence pretty low for this pcpn, so only mentioned the VCSH
for now. There could be thunder, so it could also be VCTS, but
will let later shifts refine this if need be. It is in the last 6
hours of the TAF, where confidence is lowest.




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