653
FXUS63 KFGF 181604
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1004 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme cold expected through mid-week next week, with wind
  chills as low as 55 below zero.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Brief flurries have been associated with stratocumulus moving
through the Red River Valley this morning, and with HCR type
cumulus expected to develop diurnally flurries are expected off
an on through the early evening. Minor drying snow is also
likely today as winds still remain gusty (occasional gusts
around 30 mph). Not a lot of impacts from this, so the main
change during this update was to better capture sky trends and
mention scattered flurries.

UPDATE
Issued at 644 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

As of writing this, we have pretty much hit our high
temperatures across the area for today. The arctic air really
takes hold into tonight, as our cold weather advisory shifts to
an extreme cold warning. Forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...Synopsis...

Interesting satellite imagery this morning, as IR satellite is
picking up how cold we are here in the northern plains.
Unfortunately, this arctic air is expected to stay for at least a
few days. Still have a tight pressure gradient over the area, yet
not as tight as it was yesterday with the high winds. Because of
this, winds will be a bit breezy today still, but not as high as
yesterday. Northerly flow aloft will keep intermittent shortwaves
coming through the region, with several expected in the forecast
period. Accumulations are expected to remain light as of now with
these systems.

...Extreme Cold...

This arctic air mass brings the potential for extremely hazardous
temperatures to the area beginning tonight. Probabilities are near
or at certainty for seeing apparent temperatures (wind chills) less
than -30F on several occasions this weekend, encompassing the
entirety of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota by
Sunday morning. There`s a high likelihood we see our first
widespread -40F or below wind chill event for the season, with
actual temperatures being in the -20s for lows. Up on the
international border in the northern Devils Lake Basin,
probabilities are around 50% for seeing wind chills below -50F even.
This is dangerous cold. Make sure you bundle up and cover any
exposed skin if you have plans this weekend, or into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Winds will be a bit breezy today, with gusts up to 30 knots
possible, especially in the Devils Lake Basin. Guidance is
picking up on low ceilings this afternoon, likely some
convective clouds and possibly snow showers. MVFR ceilings are
expected but not expecting any lower. Winds will remain N/NW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.
MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-032.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH/DJR
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...AH