Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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054
FXUS63 KFGF 190021
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
621 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Increased coverage of snow to match up better with current
obs/radar trends where light snow band is moving roughly along
Hwy 200 corridor to the south and east. Drier air is already
beginning to filter into the low levels from Canada with
northeast flow and this activity may not last beyond this evening.
A slightly faster trend would match current high res/short range
guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

For tonight, an area of lower clouds and scattered flurries and
light snow moves gradually southward through the forecast area. With
forcing from a weak impulse aloft behind the surface boundary and
weak low level frontogenesis, snowfall totals are expected to be
less than an inch. While little to no accumulation is expected,
there is potential for some minor impacts to travel tonight and
for Monday morning commute. Flurries may linger into early Monday,
particularly in the northwest quarter of MN.

Heading into this evening, winds turn northerly and begin to
increase as cold air advection ramps up behind a boundary pushing
southward through the forecast area. Cold air advection and
northwest flow aloft funnel colder air into the region heading into
Monday, with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the teens below zero.
By Monday morning, the brisk north breeze will result in wind chills
in the single digits to teens below zero. Despite sunshine on
Monday, highs will likely only reach the single digits to teens
above zero.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Monday night into Tuesday afternoon`s weather will see a clipper
move through the NW flow aloft. Track of the clipper places winter
precip primarily across northwest MN with some light snow chances
combined with freezing drizzle, as models are hinting at a period
of time in the afternoon as the upper forcing moves away and loss
of ice nucleation aloft with saturated low layer persisting.

Travel around the Thanksgiving holiday appears to be unaffected by
weather as upper ridging moves in across central North America with
temps rebounding into the 20s Wednesday and 30s for Thursday into
Saturday. Ensemble guidance for the post holiday weekend remains
widely spread with little confidence in timing and placement of
potential precip as a more unsettled pattern develops for the end of
the week, with low chances for snow across the area Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

MVFR CIGS associated with areas of flurries/light snow will
transition south and east through the evening. Winds will remain
out of the north as high pressure moves out of Canada and drier
air will eventually result in improving conditions to VFR by
around 06Z (improvement north to south). There is a slightly more
intense band that will pass over KFAR and briefly drop conditions
to IFR during the early TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DJR



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