911
FXUS62 KTAE 021700
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
100 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

No changes were needed to be made to the forecast today. Expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop later this
afternoon across the region. Some storms may produce strong gusty
winds and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Convection has developed in the northeast Gulf at this early morning
hour in an area of convergent bands and deeper moisture. CAMs have
this area more or less continuing into the morning hours and
developing onshore ahead of the arrival of another shortwave trough
with associated lift and instability. This combination will lead to
a healthy chance for showers and storms through the day, first in
coastal sections this morning then inland areas this afternoon.
PWATs will be on the order of 1.8 inches with shear on the low side
so severe weather chances are low but some chance for localized
flooding could occur if training or slower storm movements take
place. DCAPE values today suggest some possibility of gusty to
strong winds in a any stronger storms.

Inland convection will wane after sunset but residual/redevelopment
of marine convection appears plausible overnight while there remains
some influence of troughing aloft. Highs today will range through
the 80s and lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Our pattern becomes more typical for summer with a diurnally-driven
sea breeze circulation. Monday will have rain chances focused more
over the Apalachicola River basin and near the Suwannee River. These
will be the favored convergence zones with the Forgotten &
Emerald Coast sea breezes as well as the Nature and Atlantic Coast
sea breezes amidst the southeasterly flow. Given the presence of
mid- level dry air, DCAPE values will climb to 900-1100 J/kg
within an unstable environment with 15-20 kt deep layer shear.
Thus, some storms Monday afternoon could become strong to maybe
severe with strong downburst winds possible.

Tuesday`s rain chances will be lower as mid-level ridging noses in
across the Southeast. However, if storms can develop Tuesday
afternoon, these could be strong to possibly severe as well with
inverted-V profiles shown on area soundings as well as some mid-
level dry air. This could lead to another day of strong downbursts
given DCAPE >1000 J/kg and plenty of instability.

Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower 90s with lows in the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Another shortwave dives southeastward across the southeast US
Wednesday night into Thursday, helping boost our rain chances for
Thursday. Rain chances are highest across the northern parts of our
area (up to 40%) and lower near the coast. Large-scale troughing
overtakes the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US late in the week, but
we`ll generally be under the influence of a building ridge from
Texas. This will help squash rain chances down to around 20% for
the entire area. The heat will build as a result mid to late week
with highs widespread in the mid- 90s. With dewpoints in the lower
70s, heat index values will climb to the 100-105 range area-
wide. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have started to develop across the area
today. This will likely cause brief periods of MVFR restrictions
if they go over an airport. All terminals are carrying VCTS
through the evening until storms begin to dissipate across the
area. There is some signal that IFR to LIFR CIGs look to develop
at ABY and DHN during the early morning hours Monday. All other
terminals look to remain VFR through the period. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms look possible again on Monday
afternoon; however, coverage is not expected to be as high.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning over
the nearshore waters and in Apalachee Bay. Chances decrease this
afternoon as storms move inland. A similar pattern is expected
Monday, but with less coverage. Generally light winds are
southeasterly winds are expected through mid-week as high pressure
sets up over the western Atlantic. Winds will become more
southwesterly to westerly late in the week as a cold front
approaches the area. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet for the
next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Another mid level disturbance will approach the region today
bringing additional moisture and instability which will lead to a
good chance for scattered showers and storms through the region
today and tonight. Coastal sections have the better chances this
morning then transitioning to inland areas this afternoon.
Dispersions, mixing heights, and transport winds all look favorable
the next few days. Outside of convection, no hazardous fire weather
conditions are anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Some localized heavy downpours are possible in the storms over the
next few days, but coverage will generally be spotty enough to avoid
widespread flood concerns. However, slow-moving or training storms
could result in localized flood issues in urban or poor-drainage
areas. This also will not have an impact on area rivers.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  89  71  92 /  20  40  10  20
Panama City   71  87  73  89 /  20  30  10  10
Dothan        67  88  70  90 /  20  30  10  20
Albany        67  89  70  91 /  30  30  20  20
Valdosta      68  91  70  92 /  30  40  20  20
Cross City    68  91  69  93 /  20  40  10  20
Apalachicola  73  85  74  86 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Young