847
FXUS62 KTAE 081957
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
257 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - Following a strong cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon, an
   abrupt turn to cold and windy weather will occur Sunday night
   through Monday Night. The first killing frost and/or freeze of
   the season is expected for all but beachfront communities on
   Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

 - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from late Sunday afternoon
   through early Tuesday morning across all northeast Gulf waters.
   Occasional gusts to near gale force are possible in waters
   west of Apalachicola.

 - Elevated fire weather concerns are expected Monday afternoon
   with gusty winds, low relative humidity, and ongoing drought
   conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

This evening and tomorrow could be the last time we see temperatures
in the 80s across the region for a while, at least according to
global models. Enjoy it will it lasts! A shortwave and its
associated cold front look to approach the region tomorrow morning
and sweep across the region throughout the afternoon. With most of
the upper level forcing way to the north and west of the region,
we`ll see minimal rainfall with this frontal passage, unfortunately.
With dew points in the 60s tomorrow afternoon, some isolated spots
may see diurnal pop up showers, but rain amounts are generally
expected to be less than a quarter of an inch. By Sunday evening the
cold front will be mostly through the region and CAA will be in full
swing.

Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s with
overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Sunday night through Wednesday morning will be an awfully chilly
period as Canadian air blasts through the region leading to the
first killing frost and freeze of the season. Behind the cold front
Sunday night through Monday night will be strong gusty winds,
leading to wind chills in the low to mid 30s Monday morning, and a
Small Craft Advisory across our Gulf waters with occasional gusts to
gale force. There will be elevated fire danger on Monday as dew
points tank with dry northerly air moving across the region,
continuing and worsening drought conditions, and gusty winds all
contributing to elevated fire weather concerns. There`s the
potential to see red flag conditions being met Monday afternoon.

Monday night into Tuesday we`ll begin to see winds gradually
decrease as a strong surface high begins to dive southeast over the
region. Actual overnight temps are expected to be brutal for this
time of year, with some areas possibly breaking or nearing record
cold. Widespread temps in the mid to upper 20s with coastal areas
seeing low 30s expected Tuesday morning. Winds will be light, but
strong enough to push wind chills Tuesday morning into the upper
teens. Expect various cold weather products from cold weather
advisories to freeze warnings to be issued over the next day or two
as we brace for this brutal cold.

Tuesday and beyond we`ll start to gradually recover from this flash
freeze as surface high pressure moves directly overhead, winds
weaken and a slow gradual warm up begins. Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning expect it to still be cold, hovering around
freezing, but with calm winds at least colder wind chills won`t be a
concern. The weather will remain quiet and benign through Friday.

Expect daytime highs in the low to mid 50s on Monday to warm up into
the mid 70s by Friday. Overnight lows follow a similar pattern with
temps initially in the upper 30s and low 40s Monday morning, mid to
upper 20s Tuesday morning, climbing into the mid 40s by Friday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

A SCT-BKN Cu field persists with mainly VFR conds prevailing thru
this aftn under westerly winds AOB 10 kts. The main concerns for
this TAF cycle are flt restrictions from low cigs and/or vsbys from
fog & low stratus. Highest confidence in occurrence is along the
Interstate corridors on the FL Big Bend/SW GA side - i.e., TLH/VLD
after midnight where airport minimums are on the table during the
early-morning hrs. Improvement is expected by about 14-15Z as winds
pick up out of the west to NWW ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Conditions deteoriate Sunday as a strong cold front sweeps through
the region. Strong northwest winds will occur immediately behind the
front with gusts occasionally to gale force, especially in waters
west of Apalachicola Sunday night through  Monday night. Thus, a
Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for this time period.
Winds begin to decrease late Tuesday morning as high pressure
settles into the southeast US and northeast Gulf waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday afternoon with strong
northerly winds following the frontal passage through Monday night.
The combination of near critically low relative humidity values with
gusty winds on Monday afternoon is likely to produce elevated fire
weather concerns. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue
into Tuesday with afternoon humidities in the low to mid 20 percent
range but stronger winds will diminish.

The coldest temperatures of this fall season are on tap with the
first killing frost and freeze expected for all but immediate
coastal locations both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Severe to extreme drought over much of the region will persist or
worsen over the next 7 days. A limited window of opportunity for
rainfall this weekend will only produce amounts of 1/4 inch or less,
mainly through Sunday. Isolated and localized totals to near 1/2
inch are a reasonable best case scenario. The spotty nature of
rain and the lack of heavier amounts will offer no real relief to
drought conditions.

Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information on the
ongoing drought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   64  82  44  55 /   0  30   0   0
Panama City   67  79  43  55 /  10  20   0   0
Dothan        62  79  39  50 /  10  20   0   0
Albany        62  80  40  51 /   0  20   0   0
Valdosta      63  82  43  55 /   0  30   0   0
Cross City    65  82  48  60 /  10  20   0   0
Apalachicola  67  76  45  55 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for
     GMZ751-752-770-772.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Scholl