251
FXUS62 KTAE 301027
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
627 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Fairly complex setup expected today as broad upper level troughing
and several weak shortwaves rotating through it interact with a
broad stationary frontal boundary draped across the forecast area.
These features should generate fairly high rain chances this morning
and into the afternoon and evening, but given the messy forcing,
heavy cloud-cover, and ill-defined surface features, expect a day of
fairly off and on activity.

While activity will be fairly scattered, there`s at least two
periods of shower/storm activity forecast today. The first period
will be the morning/early-afternoon rounds associated with two
frontal waves along the stationary boundary. The first wave is a
weak boundary and surface low across the Panhandle. Increased low
level convergence will generate a broad area of scattered
showers/storms through the morning hours as this feature drifts east-
southeast along the coast through the morning. The second surface
feature is closer to central Georgia and this feature will drift
east-southeast through the morning as well. As the first round
drifts east-southeast through the morning and afternoon, another
round of scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms will begin to
develop in the afternoon and early evening hours, mostly across
our Florida and southwest Georgia counties. This will be
associated the diurnal heating and more like our usual summer
variety of storms. This second round of activity is a little more
uncertain, as it will be influenced somewhat by morning time
activity across the area and dependent on instability
redeveloping. Additionally, drier mid-level air will begin to
approach the area later this afternoon and evening from the
northwest as the upper level trough axis begins to swing through.
This drier air could bring lower rain chances than currently
forecast across our southeast Alabama counties later this
afternoon and evening.

With the drier mid-level air pushing through tonight much of the
activity should move into our marine zones overnight and into the
morning hours of Sunday, if it lasts that long.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Deep mid level troughing will remain in place across the eastern
US through much of the upcoming week with northwesterly steering
flow continuing through mid week. A stationary front is forecast
to meander near the coast or offshore. North of the front, surface
high pressure will be positioned in the northeast US with a wedge
down the spine of the Appalachians keeping surface winds out of
the northeast heading into the upcoming work week. PWATs during
this timeframe will range from 1.2 inches north to 1.7 inches
near the coast. As such, the better rain chances will reside in
the Florida counties and along/south of I10. The northeast flow
will also keep temperatures moderated with highs in the low to mid
80s perhaps creeping into the upper 80s near the coast Tuesday.

Further upstream, a stronger shortwave trough slides south through
the Central and northern Plains on the backside of the mid level
trough. As it reaches the mid south Wednesday, a frontal wave
develops over the Gulf waters and heads northeast and off the east
coast by Thursday morning. As it moves by, a trailing cold front
will move into the southeast, effectively kicking the entire
system further east with high pressure building in from the
northwest. The mid level trough begins to break down late week
allowing highs to reach back towards 90 degrees in most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Fairly widespread MVFR/IFR conditions are ongoing or will develop
shortly across the area the next few hours. Conditions will be
very slow to lift through the morning with most locations likely
not back to VFR conditions until 18z but confidence on VFR
conditions returning still remains fairly low. Periods of showers
will affect terminals through the TAF and TSRA potential should
increase after 18z with daytime heating across our inland
terminals. Some TSRA possible along the coast near ECP in the
morning hours as well. Most activity should diminish later this
evening and another round of MVFR/IFR conditions is likely to
develop overnight as northeasterly flow continues.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected this weekend as
a stationary boundary meanders in or south of the marine zones.
The boundary will be the culprit of marine showers and storms
which may locally increase winds and seas around heavier
convection. Light winds Saturday will transition to northeast
winds Sunday into midweek as high pressure strengthens to the
north. This could lead to periods of cautionary conditions,
especially in waters west of Apalachicola. The frontal boundary
moves east Wednesday with winds decreasing while switching out of
the northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Widespread wetting rains are expected today, shifting to the
lower I- 75 and I-10 corridors and southward Sunday, and then
closer to the Gulf coast on Monday. Transport winds light and
variable are expected today and then will increase and becoming
northeasterly Sunday into Monday. Low dispersions are likely this
afternoon given cloud cover and increased rain chances.
Dispersions will tick up on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The entire area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
today, shifting south into the Big Bend and south of I-10 Sunday
into the early part of the upcoming work week. North of I-10 over
the next few days, around an inch of rainfall in spots can be
expected while areas along and south of I-10, generally amounts of
1-3 inches could occur. These heavier amounts appear to favor
coastal locations and portions of the Florida panhandle. Where
heavier amounts fall, nuisance-type flooding of poor drainage,
low-lying, or urban areas may occur.

Area rivers are below flood stage at the present moment. The
Sopchoppy and St Marks would be the most vulnerable to reach
action stage should several inches of rainfall accumulate in or
around their basins.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  70  85  70 /  50  40  50  10
Panama City   85  71  87  72 /  80  50  50  30
Dothan        82  68  84  68 /  50  10  20  10
Albany        80  68  84  68 /  40  10  30  10
Valdosta      83  68  85  69 /  60  30  40  10
Cross City    87  71  88  71 /  60  50  70  20
Apalachicola  84  72  84  73 /  80  50  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Scholl