389
FXUS62 KTAE 011643
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1243 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

 - The next chance for rain will come from Sunday afternoon
   through Monday morning. Where rain occurs, it will generally be
   less than one-quarter inch. This will offer no improvement to
   the ongoing drought.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday morning)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A cool and dry air mass will persist across the region today and
tonight. Little sensible change in the weather is expected, compared
with yesterday (Friday).

The main change is that northwest surface winds of yesterday will
become northeasterly today. This may hold temperatures up tonight a
couple of degrees higher than the cold reading that we are observing
this morning, but lows tonight will still be several degrees below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Low impact weather is expected during the week ahead. A low chance
of rain from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning will be the
most interesting part of the forecast.

Models have trended toward a stronger and tighter 500 mb cutoff
low that will move southeast across the Southeast U.S. on Sunday
PM and Monday AM. The amount of lift from the mid-level feature
could wring out some light rain or perhaps some elevated
convection rooted above the stable low-level dome of colder air,
especially if enough mid-level moisture can get entrained into the
preceding southwest flow aloft. This forecast package has
expanded chance PoPs to cover more of the region from Sunday
afternoon through Monday morning.

After Monday morning, no more rain is forecast for the rest of next
week. Low pressure will be east in the Atlantic by Monday PM, and
northerly low-level flow will strengthen. A drier air mass will
plunge in from the north, with a quick reinforcement of cooler air
for Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure will settle southward across the region on
Wednesday and Thursday, and 500 mb heights will become anomalously
high as strong ridging expands from northern Mexico across the Gulf.

Surface high pressure will push eastward into the Atlantic next
Friday. So easterly or southeasterly breezes will start to spread a
more martime-influenced air mass into the region. Added low-level
moisture will take some chill off of the nighttime lows, and we
are likely to start getting more areas of early morning fog late
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light
northeast winds.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Gentle breezes will clock around northeasterly today, as high
pressure moves east across the Carolinas. On Sunday, a wave of low
pressure will move east across the Gulf along a stalled frontal
boundary. Once low pressure ejects east into the Atlantic on Sunday
night, fresh to strong northerly breezes will fill in across the
Northeast Gulf. High pressure over the Mid-South region on Monday
will move to the southern Appalachians on Tuesday, with winds
clocking around northeasterly. The high center will settle south
directly across the waters on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A cool and dry air mass will persist across the districts through
early Tuesday. A 20-30 percent chance of rain will cross the region
from Sunday afternoon through early Monday, as an upper level system
moves by. Where it does rain, rain will be light and should remain
less than a quarter-inch. Northerly breezes will pick up and become
gusty from Sunday night through Monday evening, as low pressure
strengthens over the Atlantic east of Florida and Georgia. High
pressure will settle over the region on Wednesday and Thursday,
leading to a dry air mass, light winds, poor dispersion, and
moderating temperatures.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

No flooding is expected for at least the next 7 days.

Any rain that occurs Sunday afternoon through Monday morning will
not be hydrologically significant, and it will provide no drought
relief.

Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information on the
ongoing drought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  44  71  47 /   0   0  20  30
Panama City   71  49  71  47 /   0  10  20  20
Dothan        69  43  70  42 /   0   0  10  30
Albany        69  42  70  44 /   0   0  10  40
Valdosta      70  42  72  46 /   0   0  10  30
Cross City    73  44  75  49 /   0   0  20  30
Apalachicola  68  53  69  49 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner