296
FXUS62 KTAE 160007
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
807 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The previous forecast appears to be largely on track. Showers and
storms should continue to dissipate over the next couple of hours.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The shortwave near the Mississippi valley that has been providing a
little extra lift for our showers/thunderstorms lately will be
lifting northward, allowing us to resume a more typical summertime
pattern with a little less coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
But, daily thunderstorms remain in the forecast. PoPs will range
from 50-70 percent through Monday afternoon with temperatures in the
low 90s, after starting in the muggy mid-70s. Patchy fog may be
possible during the morning hours where rain had fallen during the
day prior. Dew points in the 70s will allow for the heat index on
Monday to approach 100 degrees and higher, but should remain below
advisory criteria of 108 degrees for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

An upper level ridge over the Atlantic will continue to control
the weather pattern through the upcoming week and next weekend as
light low-level southerly flow remains in place. This ridge will
likely be strongest Tuesday through Thursday and this should lead
to a noticeable reduction in rain chances as drier mid-level air
rotates around the southern portion of the ridge and into the
southeast. This is seen in current ensemble precipitable waters
dropping to around 1.5 to 1.75 inches during the middle of the
week compared to the 1.8 to 2.1 inches we`ve seen recently.
Additionally, the weak upper level support we`ve seen over the
last few days will be lifting off to the north with only remnant
support remaining over our southeast Alabama counties. Even with
the ridge in place, adequate low-level moisture and plenty of
instability thanks to warmer temperatures should allow isolated to
scattered showers and storms during this drier stretch. Given
climatological norms for rain chances as PWATS drop, did lower
POPs 10 to 20% compared to current NBM guidance which is likely
overdone in the upcoming pattern.

Guidance begins to diverge somewhat into the latter part of the
week and weekend, but ensemble means suggest the warmer and drier
conditions will likely continue along with temperatures possibly
jumping back into the mid to upper 90s. With moist southeasterly
flow still in place, it`s possible we`ll begin to see increasing
heat-related concerns as low level moisture and hot temperatures
begin to elevate our heat indices into the low 100s, nearing heat-
advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Shower and thunderstorms will continue to diminish over the next
couple of hours. A quiet night is expected, with a small chance
for patchy fog and/or periods of MVFR ceilings overnight. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending into the Gulf
will result in a light south to southwest flow for the next
several days. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue,
especially during the overnight and morning hours each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Widespread wetting rains will continue over the next several days,
precluding any fire weather concerns. Lightning and erratic gusty
winds can be expected in thunderstorms. Fair to moderate dispersions
are expected through the period, with high dispersions possible over
our southwestern Georgia districts for Tuesday and across the
wiregrass regions for Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Locally heavy downpours in storms will lead to a low-end threat
of localized nuisance-type flooding (ponding on roads and minor
flooding of poor-drainage areas) over the next several days. Given
how wet it has been, it will only take about 2.5 to 3 inches of
rain within an hour to cause flash flooding or about 3 to 4 inches
within 3 hours. Thus, very localized flash flooding cannot be
ruled out, but the Weather Prediction Center does not have our
area outlined in any formal risks for excessive rainfall. No river
flooding is anticipated given the scattered nature of rainfall.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  89  74  92 /  30  60  10  50
Panama City   78  89  78  89 /  50  60  40  60
Dothan        72  90  73  90 /  30  60  10  60
Albany        72  91  74  92 /  20  50  10  50
Valdosta      73  92  73  94 /  20  50  10  40
Cross City    73  91  72  92 /  30  50  10  40
Apalachicola  77  87  78  87 /  40  60  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Young