162
FXUS62 KTAE 291405
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1005 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Very dangerous heat is expected today with heat index values of
  108-116 expected. Stay hydrated, take frequent air-conditioned
  breaks, and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
  Seek immediate care if you experience heat-related illnesses.

- A potent round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected this
  afternoon and evening. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
  over the Florida Big Bend and Southwest Georgia. The primary
  threats will be damaging wind gusts, isolated flash flooding,
  large hail, and prolific lightning.

- On Thursday, there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe
  thunderstorms. Concerns will be strong and possibly damaging
  wind gusts. Isolated flash flooding is possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

No significant changes to the forecast this morning. We are still
expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop mid to
late this afternoon followed by an MCS late afternoon into the
evening. Instability and DCAPE will both be very high this
afternoon, so storms will be more capable of producing damaging
wind gusts of 50-70 mph than a typical summer afternoon. Ensure
you have multiple ways to receive warnings this afternoon. The
window for the greatest severe threat will be mainly from 4 PM to
midnight ET/3 PM to 11 PM CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Continued hazardous heat and severe weather potential will be the
main weather stories today. Highs are forecast in the middle and
upper 90s again w/ slightly higher dew points compared to Tuesday.
The Heat Advisory has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning
for much of the Eastern FL Panhandle, Big Bend, and southern GA
counties where the heat index will range from 113-116F today. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the remainder of the region
where the heat index will range from 108-112F today.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this aftn and evening.
SPC maintains a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) over portions of
Southwest GA and the FL Big Bend, and a Marginal (Level 1 of 5)
across the remainder of the region. A cold front advances south
into the region, within an air mass characterized by ML CAPE of
3000 to 4500 J/kg and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. The
primary threats will be damaging wind gusts, in addition to
prolific lightning.

Looking ahead, a wet pattern is in store continuing through the
weekend, but that will also yield relatively cooler temperatures.
Still cannot rule out additional heat headlines being needed,
especially during midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Numerous strong thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to erupt
across the region this afternoon and evening, to the south of a
slow- moving front over central Alabama and Georgia. To its
south, very strong to extreme instability along with unseasonably
fast flow will support very quick development of strong to severe
thunderstorms mid-late afternoon. Storms will last across the
region well into the evening, given the organizing effect of fast
mid-level flow. The strongest storms will come with microbursts
producing gusts in excess of 50 knots. So this will be a bigger
thunderstorm day than a typical summer day.

Otherwise, satellite and surface obs show low clouds and fog
developing west of TLH, and trends point to this moving into TLH and
persisting. Of course, low stratus will disperse quickly about 2
hours after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The main concern this afternoon and evening is as a complex of
thunderstorms with gusty outflow boundaries that is expected to
move across the waters from the north. Keep an eye to the sky,
heed any Special Marine Warnings, and head to safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. Moderate west/southwest winds
around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 3 feet will prevail today,
before winds and seas increase slightly into the weekend as a
frontal boundary drops south into the waters. In fact, fresh
breezes are possible by Thursday that could last into the
weekend, along with high rain and thunderstorm chances each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Hazardous heat continues again today, with the heat index ranging
from 113-116F for much of the Eastern FL Panhandle, Big Bend, and
southern GA counties, except 108-112F across the rest of the area.
The seabreeze will make some inland progress again, but will likely
remain south of I-10. While overall fire concerns will be low, more
widespread shower and storm coverage, including some being severe,
is expected today. These storms will bring gusty and erratic winds
and be prolific lightning producers. Some gusts in severe storms
could approach 60 to 70 mph. High dispersions are also expected just
inland from the Gulf coast and north of I-10 today with transport
winds more out of the west and west-northwest. A wetter pattern is
likely to develop into the weekend limiting fire concerns, but if
the frontal system stalls further south, it`s possible some lower
end fire concerns could remain across our northern counties in
Southeast Alabama and across central Georgia.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A wetter pattern is in store Wednesday through at least this
weekend as a front moving south through the region is expected to
stall. WPC has highlighted the region in a Marginal (level 1 of
4) risk for Excessive Rainfall. The main concern is minor
flooding of areas of poor drainage, but isolated flash flooding
cannot be ruled out eventually. There are no riverine flooding
concerns at this time, but keep an eye out for updated forecasts
in the event rainfall amounts increase.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   98  78  94  75 /  60  50  70  30
Panama City   95  81  92  79 /  20  30  60  50
Dothan        98  76  94  74 /  50  70  50  20
Albany        99  76  96  75 /  40  50  20  10
Valdosta      99  76  96  74 /  50  50  50  30
Cross City    95  79  92  76 /  40  60  80  70
Apalachicola  94  82  90  79 /  20  40  60  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ007>009.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ010>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

     High Rip Current Risk from 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     through late tonight for FLZ112-114.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF