446
FXUS62 KTAE 251855
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
155 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

- Intense cold front will bring the potential for welcome rainfall
  across the region amidst the extreme to exceptional drought.
  Rainfall amounts will not be enough to bring any drought
  improvement.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe weather
  exists for locations just northwest of Tallahassee tonight and
  into Wednesday morning. Main threats: a tornado or two,
  damaging gusts up to 60 mph, hail up to 1 inch.

- Elevated fire danger on Thanksgiving and Friday with critical
  relative humidity levels and breezy winds.

- Wind chills will be several degrees below freezing early Friday
  morning and early Saturday morning across the region. Air
  temperatures could briefly drop below freezing during this time
  frame as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1228 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

18z surface analysis and visible satellite imagery shows
extensive southerly flow in place across the region with dewpoints
in the low 70s along the Gulf Coast and in the mid 60s across the
interior - an airmass more common to late summer than late
November. Convection was noted ahead of the cold front from SE LA
into Southwestern AL. While the convection across SE LA wasn`t
especially robust, storms look a little more impressive across
Southwestern AL. Zooming out, a secondary trough that is driving
this system is not amplifying or digging especially far into the
Mid South which suggests that the southern extension of these
storms will not enjoy much deep layer forcing through the evening
and overnight hours as they approach our region. While the
airmass ahead of the storms in our region is conducive to storms,
a limiting factor is the lack of dynamical support to favor more
widespread development. Hi-res guidance seems to agree with this
particular outcome as it shows relatively weak convection in
broken line segments moving through the region between 05z-15z
Wed. As a result, adjusted the NBM PoPs to match timing trends
with current conditions and the latest HRRR/HREF blend. This
results in PoPs highest across SE AL and into SW Georgia and then
tapering off quickly east of a TLH to VLD line as any storms will
outpace any mid/upper level dynamical support.

As the front comes through on Wednesday, a much drier and
progressively cooler airmass will overspread the region. The
temperature change will not be especially stark on Wednesday as
the cold advection doesn`t ramp up until Wednesday night and into
Thursday across the region. The MaxTs will still generally be in
the mid 70s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1228 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Big changes are on the way in the medium to long range part of the
forecast. The more certain part of the forecast extends through
Saturday, though there are some subtle issues with respect to
overnight lows.

Cold advection ramps up quickly on Wednesday evening as high
pressure drops into the mid south and the Eastern CONUS trough
deeply amplifies over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will drop off into the mid 40s overnight with breezy
conditions overnight. By Thursday, with moderate cool advection
continuing, air temperatures will struggle to get into the 60s
across much of the region despite full sunshine. The breezy
conditions will also make it feel quite chilly coupled with the
dry airmass in place.

The model guidance has been in fairly good agreement that the high
pressure center will transit more from the Plains on Thursday
night through the Tennessee Valley on Friday and position about
150 miles northeast of Knoxville, TN by Saturday morning. Given
that the high center will be fairly distant from our region, it
will be challenging for winds to go calm on Thursday night and
Friday night to maximize radiational cooling. NBM temp spreads for
these overnight lows are considerable, with the deterministic NBM
and GFS/NAM based MOSs on the upper end of the NBM spread. With
some potential for lighter winds, did trend the forecast a bit
closer to the 75th percentile on the spread as opposed to the
deterministic forecast, which is very near the 95th percentile of
the guidance for overnight lows. This blend results in
temperatures that could on both Thursday and Friday nights briefly
drop below freezing. Further, with winds potentially in the 5-8
mph range, apparent temperatures could feel several degrees
cooler, in the low to mid 20s around daybreak each day.

By Saturday, the weather pattern will begin to change
considerably. The northern stream pattern across the CONUS becomes
significantly more active with multiple waves traversing the
broader Eastern CONUS trough. Confidence in the forecast at this
range decreases to below average as run to run variability in the
GFS exists as well as disparity with the more recent ECMWF runs.
This is also noted when examining the model spread in the NBM,
which struggles to get rain chances above 40 percent during the
long range period, which suggests sufficient ensemble support
exists for little or no rainfall during the weekend. On Saturday,
a trough will amplify across the Central Plains and dig into the
mid South by Sunday. The resulting mass response across the
southeast will be for increasing rain chances by Sunday and into
Monday. The 25/00z and 25/12z Euro solutions do not phase any
southern stream energy with the amplifying northern stream trough
and as a result has limited precip across our region. The 25/06z
and 25/12z GFS do have a significant degree of phasing and is much
more wet across our region. Given that the 25/00z GFS was much
drier and the overall blend of the guidance is toward a less wet
solution, kept PoPs from Saturday night and beyond closer to or
just below the NBM deterministic forecast. It is important to note
that model trends over the last couple of weeks have showed more
robust systems at long time scales only to have them be weaker as
we get nearer to the event, so I`m a little hesitant to favor the
stronger GFS solution at this time.

Given the increasing southeasterly flow on Saturday, temperatures
will begin to moderate to normal to just above normal values by
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

MVFR to VFR conditions prevail at all sites. Gusty southerly winds
are possible with gusts 20-25 kt at all but VLD and TLH. Cigs lower
to IFR and perhaps even LIFR at all sites overnight. Winds should
remain elevated enough to prevent widespread fog formation at the
TAF sites. Exceptions will be VLD and TLH where some patchy fog may
develop. Otherwise, watching SHRA/TSRA move from west to east across
the area, starting at 02z at DHN, then exiting VLD by 17z. Highest
confidence is at DHN and ABY where prevailing VCTS has been added
with PROB30s for TSRA elsewhere. Behind the storms, winds shift out
of the NW around 10 kt with conditions gradually rising to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Winds will begin to increase tonight across the marine area ahead
of the frontal system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
transit the marine area tonight and into Wednesday. By
Wednesday evening, expect winds to increase to small craft
advisory levels in the western waters and reach the eastern waters
by Wednesday night. A lengthy period of advisory conditions is
anticipated over the marine area, with the possibility of gale
force gusts over the offshore waters on Thursday night into Friday
morning. Winds will shift to easterly by Saturday but remain near
or just above advisory levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Some rainfall will move into the region tonight to provide
modest relief to the especially dry conditions. However, behind
the front, the airmass will be especially dry on Thursday and
Friday with afternoon minimum relative humidity values dropping
into the 18-22 percent range coincident with 10-15 mph winds. This
will create the potential for critical fire weather thresholds to
be met on Thursday and Friday. The airmass will moisten on
Saturday ahead of the next storm system, putting an end to
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Global guidance is not particularly bullish on QPF with the
approaching system but several hi-res members suggest localized
amounts in thunderstorms of 1-2 inches is possible, mainly across
Southeast Alabama and into Southwest Georgia. Unfortunately, it
appears the worst hit areas by the exceptional drought are not
expected to get more than 0.5 inches of rain in this initial
event. Further, given the wide disparity in model solutions for
Sunday`s event, sufficient relief in the near term to the ongoing
drought conditions is unlikely. Further, the pattern in the long
range, even if the more intense GFS were to verify, is moving too
quickly to support any flood potential. Therefore, there are no
flood concerns through the forecast period. Extreme to Exceptional
Drought continues.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  77  42  61 /  40  50   0   0
Panama City   67  76  43  62 /  60  30   0   0
Dothan        62  72  38  58 /  80  10   0   0
Albany        67  74  39  58 /  80  30   0   0
Valdosta      66  77  40  60 /  40  50   0   0
Cross City    66  80  45  65 /  10  30   0   0
Apalachicola  70  75  46  62 /  50  50   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ108-112-
     114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday for
     GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Friday for
     GMZ751-752-770-772.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM....Godsey
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Godsey