000
FXUS63 KFGF 181723
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

No updates needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Steady east-northeast winds and the cloud cover is helping to hold
temperatures up overnight. With the system passing to the south of
the FA today, expect more cloud cover across the southern half of
the FA. Previous shift removed the light snow chances that were
expected for this morning, with any echoes on radar well to the
south or west. Therefore the main challenge today will be high
temperatures. Yesterday thought that some locations would hit 50,
and quite a few did, even saw a 54F at Fosston. With quite a bit
of sun again in the north, and starting the day even warmer, these
same readings should be possible. Stuck with highs a little
cooler across the far south. During the melting period we just
started, there has not been much fog formation, which usually
accompanies the spring melt. Looking for fairly light winds with
decreasing clouds tonight, but still did not mention any fog. Day
shift can take another look at that potential, with confidence
low at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Impacts for the extended appear to be confined to temperatures as a
quiet weather pattern takes shape across the northern plains through
the weekend and into next week. Split flow across North America will
create storm tracks north and south of the area. A combination of
northern stream energy will bring some rain chances Sunday and
Tuesday. A relatively dry airmass exists with GEFS ensembles
indicating a mean of two to three tenths and a max just under an
inch, only one of twenty members, for the Tuesday and Wednesday time
frame. The EC ensemble values match the GEFS well. Temperatures
start the period with low 50s and rise into the upper 50s and low
60s on Sunday. Behind the front Tuesday temperatures cool back to
the low 50s. Lows will start off in the upper 20s and low 30s rising
into the upper 30s and low 40s Sunday morning. These values are at
to below mid to late April normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

VFR conditions across eastern ND and northwest MN. Main concern
will be a few locations (mainly in northwest MN) gusting early in
the TAF period from the northeast around 20 mph. These winds
should decrease through the afternoon. Some guidance is showing
the potential for reduced vis/cigs to IFR Thursday morning, but
this may be overdone and mention has been left out of TAFs.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DJR