Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 120256

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
956 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Temps not falling much in the eastern zones with slightly higher
dewpoints. Decreased the low temp in the western zones for
overnight. Fog loop not showing much for clouds over southwest
Ontario. Clouds that were out there are a little farther east and
farther north. Will keep clouds in the eastern zones.

UPDATE Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough over the northern
Ontario/MAN border. Short wave was moving to the southeast. Cold
air off the surface will drop south and back door into the MN side
overnight. Nearly an adiabatic boundary layer is forecast over
eastern MN. Some clouds are expected with the cold advection


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Fog chances tonight will be the main issue for the period.

Clouds continue to linger over the southern and eastern portions
of the forecast area, but think they should eventually clear out
this evening. High pressure remains centered to the west, with
west winds over the forecast area at around 10 kts. Winds will
shift more to the north-northwest by tomorrow morning as a
shortwave trough over Ontario digs south into MN/WI. With some
drier air coming in from the north and mixing overnight, the
question is how much fog will develop. Temps have been mostly at
or below the freezing mark, but with plenty of March sun there
will continue to be melting on some surfaces. High res models have
the most fog development over central ND closer to the surface
high, although some develop an additional area in west central MN
close to where fog formed this morning. Have a patchy fog in that
area and parts of the Devils Lake Basin closer to the surface
high. Lows should dip into the teens overnight with some single
digits possibe in the far west.

Tomorrow, northerly flow aloft as a reinforcing shortwave digs
down into the Great Lakes. Snow showers will be possible with this
shortwave, but at this point it seems that most of the activity
will be to our east where the best cyclonic flow and coldest mid
level temps will be located. Will continue to keep things dry for
now. Temps will be knocked back a bit by the shortwave, so kept
highs in the upper 20s to low 30s even with a good amount of

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

An upper level ridge with surface high pressure will result in quiet
weather and seasonable temperatures for much of the work week. On
Monday night, this high pressure will lead to mostly clear skies and
some cold air advection allowing for temperatures to fall into the
single digits above zero. Temperatures will recover during the day
Tuesday to near normal temperatures. Overnight lows for the rest of
the week appear more seasonable without the cold air advection.
Model guidance still consistently suggests a warming trend through
the work week with temperatures near 40 possible at the end of the
work week.

Friday will bring the next chance for precipitation and with the
warmer temperatures also comes mixed rain and snow. Uncertainty
still remains high for this period as there remains both model to
model and run to run variability. Despite these differences the
models do agree that there will be a return to a more active period
Friday into the weekend. The area of greatest uncertainty at this
time is the upper level flow over Canada and the Northern Pacific.
If the models start to converge on a solution in these areas the
surface pattern should gain some much needed clarity.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

A clear sky was across the area. Bands of MVFR cigs were located
over northern Ontario and were also moving south to southeast.
These bands may move into the far eastern zones overnight. So
expect some MVFR cigs over the far eastern zones overnight and Mon




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