Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
409 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Fog this morning and onset of precipitation tonight will be the
main issue for the period.

Some fog has developed along our far western border, with DVL
going down to 1/4 mile visibility, although it has been coming
back up and going back down. Satellite loop earlier showed the
stratus deck moving to the west and the fog in the Devils Lake
area decreasing a bit. However, more recently the stratus has
stalled and the boundary between the cloud deck and lower fog to
the west has become less pronounced. Vis at DVL has come back down
and New Rockford web cam shows things are pretty foggy. Will take
a second look shortly, but will likely need a Dense Fog Advisory
for our northwestern counties. High res models have fog
lingering through mid-day, so will have the headline running
through noon and can cancel early if things improve faster than

The rest of the day should be fairly cloudy but quiet with upper
ridging building over the western Plains. Some of the high res
models have a few blips of QPF so will have to watch for flurries,
but not seeing much upstream currently so will hold off any
mention for now. With clouds and some weak cold air advection, most
of the CWA should stay in the 30s although the far south and east
could see some low 40s.

The upper ridge will move east tonight and the band of precip will
begin to approach our far southwestern counties. Think that any
precip reaching the ground in our area will be after 12Z, but
included some low POPs in our far western tier to blend with
neighboring offices. Clouds and southeasterly winds increasing
will keep lows in the 20s to low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

12Z Fri - 12Z Sun

Warm advection precipitation is forecast to move into the area Fri.
Surface high pressure over southern Hudson Bay will feed low level
cold air into the system while warm advection occurs aloft.
Precipitable water rises to near three quarter of an inch on Fri.
Model soundings show mostly snow in the western counties although
further southeast surface temps get high enough for rain during
the day. Some melting during the daylight hours is also a
possibility.  Will keep winter storm watch in effect from Fri morning
through Sat morning for the south and west zones. Upper level
trough will move into the area by Sat morning and essentially shut
down the precipitation.

Sun - Wed

Next system affect the area late Sat into Sun as an upper level
system moves from MT into MAN. Southwest flow aloft keep an active
pattern into Mon. The Northern Plains transitions back to northwest
flow aloft by Wed.

High temperatures were decreased about a degree on Sun and Mon and
decreased one to two degrees for Tue and Wed from yesterdays


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Model guidance has become a little more optimistic for the TAFs,
but it still shows the worst conditions around KDVL. Fog remains
pretty patchy yet, but several sites in the Devils Lake to
Jamestown corridor have dropped below a mile. Clouds over the
other TAF sites may hinder really low visibilities, but there
still may be some 3-5SM fog. Wind speeds remain very light
throughout the 24 hour TAF period, so once fog forms, it will take
a while to get rid of it.


ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for NDZ006-014-015-024.

     Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning
     for NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning
     for MNZ003-029-030-040.



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