Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1141 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Still seeing some very light rain to the west of the FA, with
Bismarck having picked up a little. It is still having a tough
time moving east. However, high resolution models still bring some
of it into portions of the southern half of the FA late tonight
into Tuesday morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Main weather impact through Tuesday will be light rain moving
through southeast ND and west central MN tonight. An upper trough
swings through in northwest flow aloft from western ND into SD
tonight into Tuesday. Drier northerly low level flow behind an
exiting surface trough and weaker synoptic lift will keep amounts
light, generally under a tenth of an inch of liquid. More noteworthy
lower level frontogenetical forcing does push through southeast ND
late tonight into early Tuesday morning, yielding the best chances
of rain.

Rain chances exit southward from the southern Red River Valley
Tuesday morning, with cloud cover lingering in the I-94 and
southward corridor into the late morning. Cold air advection and a
north breeze will make for a chillier day Tuesday, with highs only
reaching the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

South to southwesterly winds will pick up during the day on
Wednesday especially over northeast ND as a surface high gradually
shifts south into the central Plains and a surface trough associated
with a Canadian low begins to move into the region. Afternoon
relative humidity values are likely to drop into the 20s with the
risk of near critical fire weather conditions developing across
northeastern North Dakota.

Rain chances increase Wednesday night and into Thursday morning as
the trough/weak cold front pushes to the southeast. While precip is
expected to be scattered, northwestern MN will see the best chance
for any measurable rain. Same wind speeds expected Thu, this time
out of the north northwest. This will be accompanied by a push of
cooler air into the region, keeping temperatures in the low to mid
50s across the area. Warm, dry and calm weather returns for Friday
and into the weekend with temperatures starting in the 60s and
rising by about 5 degrees by Sun.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Did not mention light rain at any of the TAF sites. It may brush
KFAR, but confidence in that is pretty low. North winds will pick
up a little again by mid Tuesday morning, then become light during
the evening.


Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Moderate flooding continues for the Red River at Oslo and the Snake
River at Alvarado. Log jamming vicinity of Hillsboro has caused a
spike up to moderate flood stage there, a situation expected to last
another day or two. Minor flooding continues or is anticipated along
the mainstem Red from Pembina south through Halstad except for the
moderate at Oslo.

Upcoming precipitation chances Tuesday and Thursday this week do not
show significant QPF signals and so are not expected to contribute
to river rise during the upcoming week.




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