Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 280439
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
940 PM PDT Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible
in Lincoln County and far northern Mohave County on Memorial day but
temperatures will return to near seasonal normals. A warming trend
can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday before temperatures cool and
wind returns by Thursday.
&&

.UPDATE...Clouds and light showers that were over northwest Clark
and southern Inyo counties earlier this evening have since
dissipated. Isolated showers were still evident over central Nye and
Lincoln counties, but those should be in the downward trend
overnight. The PoP/WX grids were updated to reflect these trends.
The rest of the forecast looks on track with any lingering showers
Monday confined primarily to Lincoln and far northern Mohave
counties. -Adair
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
236 PM PDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday night.

Satellite shows plenty of stunted cumulus and some light rain
showers over the higher terrain of southern Nevada, eastern
California and northwest Arizona. Latest 21z meso analysis indicates
surface based CAPEs between 250-500 J/kg over Lincoln, central Nye
and Esmeralda Counties. Only lightning strikes noted in our area so
far have been in northern Lincoln County and near Tonopah. With the
lack of instability forecast across the southern area will mention
rain showers during the evening hours. Isolated thunderstorms across
south central Nevada will be short-lived but could produce wind
gusts up to 40-45 mph.

Vorticity lobe over western Nevada progged to slide southeast across
the area tonight. Final lobe of vorticity will graze Lincoln and
northern Mohave County Memorial Day as it moves through southwest
Utah. The southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert will lie between
systems Tuesday as next trough approaches the West Coast. Warming
trend through Tuesday along with no significant winds.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.

By Wednesday, another trough will begin to dig across California and
into our region. Main impacts with this system will be gusty winds.
There is still some disagreement in the medium range models in
timing, strength and location of the trough. Though, both the ECMWF
and GFS agree on pressure gradients tightening across our region
Wednesday and Thursday bringing increased southwest winds. Moisture
will be fairly limited as the trough moves through the region
bringing only slight chances of mountains showers to the Sierra,
White Mountains and portions of Esmeralda County. Temperatures will
approach triple digits Wednesday for Las Vegas, 105 along the
Colorado River Valley and 110 in Death Valley. By Thursday and
Friday, temperatures are expected to drop 7-10 degrees, but will
quickly rebound over the weekend as ridging builds back over the
southwest.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...South to west winds generally
less than 10 knots can be expected overnight. Diurnal wind trends
below 8 kts are expected on Monday. Precipitation in the mountains
is not expected tomorrow afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Dry conditions with FEW-SCT VFR clouds will continue
into tonight across most of the region. Light diurnal wind patterns
are expected through Monday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Kryston

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