Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 192342 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 742 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the region late tonight into Saturday morning. Low pressure will track from the southeast coast, east northeast and out to sea Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 325 PM EDT Friday... Latest sfc analysis reflects a quasi-stationary front well to the south of the forecast area with a weak area of low pressure along it and a cold front just to the west of Appalachia. Aloft, the flow is nearly zonal over the Mid-Atlantic and a broad trough over the NE Plains over to the Great Lakes. Given onshore flow at the sfc and stubborn cloud cover persisting over much of the area, temps have underperformed so far. Obs north of I-64, which have been under clouds all day, are showing temps in the 50s as of 2pm obs. Across the south, where the sun was able to break through, temps have warmed to either side of 70. Latest radar shows light, widely scattered showers approaching from the west. These showers, however, are drying up as they move east. This evening and overnight, the weak low pressure and front will press north toward the area. Latest guidance, though, keeps this system just along the southern border of the FA before it is pushed out to sea by the approaching cold front. As the front passes through tonight and into early Saturday, widely scattered showers are expect across the region. Highest PoPs in the piedmont (40-50%) will be late this evening, while the highest PoPs along the coast (40-55%) will be between 2am and sunrise. Instability looks to be in short supply, so not expecting much in the way of thunder. Cannot rule out a few rumbles across the south. Not expecting temps to drop off much tonight given thick cloud cover. Lows will be in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM EDT Friday... The front likely moves ESE of the FA by the middle of Sat morning, and isolated to perhaps sctd showers will likely linger along the immediate coast to start the day. We should see at least partial clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat aftn, as drier air filters in behind the front. Forecast highs are in the low 70s in the piedmont and upper 60s E of I-95. A stronger shot of CAA arrives Sat night into Sun morning. Low temps will drop into the 40s NW to around 50 in the far SE. Sun through Sun night, a southern stream low pressure system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast states and off the SE coast. This means that rain chances will return, likely by Sun aftn across the southern half of the forecast area. Temps will likely be cooler across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area (due to clouds and increasing rain chances), with highs only in the upper 50s to around 60. The northwestern 2/3rds of the forecast area will see highs in the low 60s. Rain chances will continue over the srn/SE counties Sun evening into early Mon morning. Lows will generally be in the low 40s inland and mid 40s along the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 325 PM EDT Friday... Any lingering rain will end over extrm SE counties early Mon morning, as the low tracks farther out to sea. Under a partly to mostly sunny sky, high temps Mon will range through the 60s (warmest central and wrn counties). High pressure briefly builds over the area, then slides offshore during Tue, before another cold front brings shower chances to the region Wed into Wed evening. Although it will be very cool Tue morning (upper 30s to upper 40s), temps should rebound nicely into the mid 60s to lower 70s. The cold front will push out to sea Wed night, with high pressure building into/over the area for Thu. Highs range through the 70s (warmest S) Wed. Lows Wed night range through the 40s (coolest NW). Highs on Thu mainly in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 740 PM EDT Friday... Marine airmass continues to linger near the coast this evening with IFR CIGs (800-900 ft) at ORF/ECG and MVFR CIGs (1000-2000 ft) at PHF/SBY. Elsewhere, conditions are VFR w/ varying CIGs. Expect clouds/CIGs to lower and become more widespread over the next few hrs and especially overnight. IFR- LIFR CIGs are likely at all sites and will tend to persist through at least the mid- morning hrs, before a cold front moves through the area. Degraded flight conditions linger the longest Saturday across the SE, with improvement not expected at ORF/ECG until 18-21z. Showers are also expected with the front tonight into early Saturday, but expect these to be widely scattered. Also cannot rule out a brief tstm, especially at ORF and ECG. Low clouds slowly clear from NW to SE Sat as winds turn northerly. Outlook: Rain chances return later Sun into early Mon, as low pressure tracks from the southeast coast, east northeast and out to sea Sun into Mon.
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&& .MARINE... As of 200 PM EDT Friday... NE winds have become more easterly this afternoon as high pressure has been building south. Winds are generally 5 to 15 kt across the entire area. Seas are still running 5 ft over the northern coastal waters and 4 ft from Cape Charles south. The Bay was around 1 foot with some 2 ft. With 5 ft seas persisting over the northern waters and another surge expected late tonight into early Sat, have extended the SCA into Sat morning. SCA elsewhere have been allowed to expire. Another cold front drops across the region late tonight (Fri night) into Saturday morning. High res models have slowed the timing of the surge more into Saturday morning. Winds swing around to the NW then NNW post frontal Sat morning, but should be mainly sub- SCA given weak cool-air advection though a brief period of gusts to 20 kt is likely on the Bay and ocean. Winds should decrease some Sat afternoon ~10 to 15 kt. Winds become NW to N again Saturday night as yet another front pushes south and again increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, but look to remain below sub- SCA at this time. This surge is also relatively short lived and winds should decrease some later on Sunday. A area of low pressure moves off the Carolinas late Sunday and into early next week supporting a persistent NE flow and building seas. Would not be surprised to eventually (briefly) need SCA over southern coastal waters from Cape Charles south by the time we get into the day on Monday, but will keep just below for now. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for Dorchester as the last high tide cycle over preformed. Lewisetta also touched minor flood levels with most other stations in the upper Bay just below flood. Two strong flood tides with little to no ebb tide has increased water levels in the upper Bay. The current ebb tide at the mouth of the Bay is also starting out weak and another round of high tides at or near minor flood levels are likely in the upper bay later this evening. Tides should slowly decrease after this evening. Any minor tidal flooding will be limited to locations from Windmill Point north. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075>078. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...AM SHORT TERM...AM/TMG LONG TERM...AM/TMG AVIATION...SW MARINE...MAM/JAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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