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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
356 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front stalls across the southeast United States through
Wednesday, as high pressure tracks across the northeast. The
front returns north as a warm front early Thursday morning. A
cold front crosses the area Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Afternoon surface analysis shows remnant warm-core low pressure over
northern GA as high pressure centered over southern Ontario ridges
southward to the east of the Appalachian mountains in the wake of
this morning`s cold front. Satellite imagery shows extensive cloud
cover over much of the area with just a few breaks across the far NE
and SW.

Moisture associated with the northeastward-advancing surface low
will continue to spread into the area through the remainder of the
afternoon and especially tonight, setting the stage for a much
needed moderate to locally heavy rainfall event. 12z guidance has
trended upward with respect to overall QPF with 72 hour totals now
1.5-2" over most of the region. Model forecast soundings show modest
instability along and south of the VA/NC border this afternoon so
will maintain a slight chance of thunder in these areas. Some
organized strong to severe storms are noted across central NC as of
3:30 PM. Not expecting widespread severe storms for our area but the
far southern portions of the area will need to be watched through
this evening if stronger instability aloft is able to advect farther
north. PoPs increase to categorical across the western half of the area
tonight with likely rain chances for the remainder. Extensive cloud
cover and shower coverage tonight with lows in the upper 50s to low
60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Low pressure slows across NC tonight into Tuesday with some progress
toward the coast by late afternoon. Result will be a rather wet and
dreary day for most of the area. Onshore flow near the track of low
pressure may result in a wide range of temps across the south
tomorrow. Guidance is split regarding how much instability will be
realized on Tuesday with the southern third of the area the most
likely location for any thunder to accompany the continued showers.
For now, will show low 70s for areas along and south of the highway
58 corridor with low to mid 60s for areas to the north. Showers will
transition towards the coast by Tuesday evening into the overnight
with low temps falling into the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE.

Chance for lingering showers near the coast on Wednesday as low
pressure begins to move offshore. Easterly/onshore flow will keep
cool and moist conditions across the area with winds becoming breezy
near the coast. High temps range from the low 60s NW to the low 70s
SE with lows Wed night in the 50s and 60s. Flow turns southerly on
Thursday as a warm front lifts north across the area ahead of
another cold front approaching from the west. Thursday`s highs in
the upper 70s and low 80s with a chance for afternoon
thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

A weakening cold front is progged to approach from the W
Thursday night and slowly move through the region Friday. PoPs are
generally 30-50% during this time-frame. Warm and humid Friday with
high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s (dewpoints in the mid
60s to near 70F), after morning lows in the mid 60s to around 70F.
Model guidance begins to diverge into the holiday weekend with the
ECMWF/EC ensemble supporting the initial trough and cold front
moving offshore Friday night followed by drier WNW flow over the
weekend. Meanwhile, the GFS/GEFS mean linger a trough over the
central Appalachians through the weekend, then toward the Mid-
Atlantic coast by Memorial Day. At this time have favored the
ECMWF/EC ensemble solution, which is supported by lower NBM PoPs
generally showing PoPs at or below 25%.

Highs Saturday through Memorial Day are generally in the lower to
mid 80s (mid/upper 70s at the immediate coast), with moderate
humidity level, with dewpoints trending upward slightly from the
around 60F/lower 60s to the mid 60s through the long weekend. Low
temperatures trend upward slightly from the upper 50s to lower 60s
Saturday morning, to the lower to mid 60s by Memorial Day morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

Mix of flying conditions across the region this afternoon with
MVFR CIGs hanging on at ORF, PHF, and ECG while RIC and SBY have
improved to VFR. Guidance shows CIGs lifting to VFR at all
sites by mid afternoon. Light to moderate rainfall spreads from
SW to NE late this afternoon into the overnight with CIGs
falling to MVFR then IFR tonight. SBY may get by with only MVFR
CIGs but May climatology argues for at least a period of IFR
conditions with cool NE/onshore flow. Showers continue on
Tuesday with IFR flight restrictions likely.

Unsettled conditions expected to continue this week, as a
series of fronts and waves of low pressure cross the area.

&&

.MARINE...
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As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure builds into the Northeast through midweek. A
stationary front remains south of the local waters this afternoon
through Wed. Meanwhile, a warm core low near the GA/NC/SC borders
this afternoon will slowly move E/ENE along the front through Tues
before stalling off the coast of the Outer Banks Wed.

Winds this afternoon were generally NE 10-15 kt across the Ches Bay
and N Coastal Waters and NE 15-20 kt across the S Coastal Waters.
Winds are expected to become ENE and diminish to 10-15 kt everywhere
this evening into early tonight, increasing late tonight. ENE winds
increase Tues to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt as the pressure
gradient tightens between the high building into the Northeast and
low pressure approaching from the south. Winds remain elevated
through Wed before diminishing Wed night as the low weakens and the
stationary front lifts north as a warm front. By late Wed night,
winds become SE 10-15 kt. Therefore, have issued SCAs for the Ches
Bay and Lower James from 6 AM Tues through 6 AM Wed, from 10 AM Tues
through 6 AM Wed for the rest of the rivers, from 1 PM Tues through
4 AM Wed for the Currituck Sound, and from 1 PM Tues through 6 AM
Wed for the coastal waters for a combination of winds and seas. SCAs
will likely need to be extended but will keep the end times at the
end of the fourth period for now per collaboration with neighboring
offices. Winds become S Thurs night ~15 kt, but are expected to
remain below SCA level at this time. Afterwards, winds are expected
to remain below SCA through early next week.

Seas ~3 ft this afternoon build to 3-4 ft early Tues, eventually
building to 4-5 ft Tues afternoon. Seas continue to build to 4-6 ft
Wed before subsiding below 5 ft Wed night. Waves of 1-2 ft (2-3 ft
at the mouth of the bay) increase to 2-4 Tues north and 3-5 ft
south. Waves drop below 4 ft by Wed night.

With persistent onshore flow Tues and Wed and seas building to 3-4
ft Tues and 4-5 ft Wed, there will be a moderate rip risk across all
beaches Tues and a high rip risk across all beaches Wed. Will need
to monitor the southern beaches Tues as winds will be normal to the
coastline and they will be close to a high rip risk. Will hold off
on a high rip risk south for Tues at this time though given that low
tide is in the morning when seas are around 3 ft before they
increase to 3-4 ft.
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&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ630>632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...RMM