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062
FXUS61 KAKQ 142008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
408 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers, with periods of moderate to heavy rain
prevail tonight. Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
continue Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon. Mainly dry Thursday,
with additional showers and storms Friday night into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers prevail this evening/overnight, diminishing
  after midnight from SW to NE.

- The heaviest rain is expected along and S of I-64, with
  rainfall totals of 1.00-1.50" with localized amounts of 2" or
  more possible. Generally 0.50"-1.00" in most other locations.

- Mainly just drizzle or very light rain Wed morning, with
  scattered showers and a few storms Wed aftn.

The latest wx analysis shows high pressure well offshore with
low pressure centered across far southern IL/western KY. A
closed upper low is now tracking across eastern MO with SW flow
aloft over the Mid- Atlantic. The sky is now cloudy throughout
the area with showers becoming widespread along and S of the
I-64 corridor. Rainfall amounts so far have been light with the
exception of the southern piedmont where 0.50"-0.80" has fallen
since this morning.

The parent sfc low pressure system W of the Appalachians is
expected to track slowly to the E into tonight, becoming stacked
w/ height underneath the upper low. Meanwhile, secondary sfc low
pressure continues to develop across SC/GA, and this will
deepen into this evening across NC in response to continued
height falls aloft. Expect the showers to become widespread to
nearly the entire area by 6 PM or so as rather strong mid-level
forcing/lift arrives from the SW and PWs climb to 1.6-1.8". Even
as we remain on the cool side of the system w/ the warm front
set up to our south, periods of moderate to heavy rain are
likely. There will only be a few hundred J/kg of sfc- based
instability...(if that) which will lead to some locally heavier
showers but not expecting much in the way of thunder. Will
maintain just a slight chc mention for thunder overnight across
NE NC.

At this time, the highest QPF amounts still look to be over SE
VA and NC, though model trends suggest nearly as much falls into
central VA as well (co-located with 850-925mb WAA). Expect total
QPF through Wed to avg 1.00-1.50" with local amounts over 2"
along and S of I-64, with 0.50"-1.00 to the N/NE. While
localized flooding will be possible, the cells will be moving
tonight and FFG guidance is rather high so have not issued any
Flood Watches. Temps will fall into the upper 50s-mid 60s
tonight with breezy SE winds (gusts to 20-30 mph) developing
near the coast just ahead of the deepening secondary low.

The mid levels are progged to dry out from SW to NE after
midnight, so additional QPF after 06Z will be 0.10" or less to
the S of I-64, though the low levels remain saturated through
Wed morning. Have added the mention of drizzle between 09-15Z.
Otherwise, additional showers are expected Wed aftn, with the
highest PoPs over the S. Highs Wed around 80F across interior NE
NC, to the mid 60s across the far N (and perhaps barely 60F
along the MD Atlantic coast).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may
  persist. Mainly dry Friday.

The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the VA coast through
a good part of Thursday. A bit of a transition day weatherwise
for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the
departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the coast
through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern
shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the
later aftn. Temps rise to the upper 60s on the eastern shore
with mid 70s W of the Bay (possibly upper 70s across the far SW).
There may be just enough instability for an isolated shower
inland during the aftn/early evening. Lows Thu night range
from the mid 50s-60F with dry wx expected.

Shortwave ridging briefly moves over the area on Friday. Another
system approaches late on Friday with a few showers/tstms possible
west of I-95 late in the day, though the trend is slower so
except over the far W, the latest forecast keeps PoPs at 10% or
less through 00Z/Sat (8PM Fri). Highs range from the low-mid 70s
at the coast to the upper 70s/around 80F well inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday night and
  especially over the weekend.

Better rain chances arrive over the weekend as another
shortwave trough approaches from the SW. While it is still 4-5
days out, the best chance for showers/tstms appears to be on
Saturday (highest coverage likely during the aftn/evening), with
lingering showers possible on the back side of the system on
Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages late this week into
the weekend. Mainly dry wx returns early next week with temps
warming to slightly above average.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions to start the TAFs, with deteriorating
conditions into this evening (mainly IFR flight restrictions
to prevail tonight into Wed morning). S winds shift to the E-SE
and will be gusty to 20-25 kt closer to the coast. Expect the
showers to be heavy at times INVOF PHF/ORF/ECG between 00-06z
(with a slight chc of a tstm at ECG). The rain will mostly come
to an end between 09-12Z (except at SBY), though low clouds and
drizzle continue through the remainder of Wed morning. Periodic
flight restrictions continue Wednesday aftn with scattered
showers and potentially a few aftn tstms across srn portions of
the CWA.

Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday.
Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms,
and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with
at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- SCA conditions expected across local waters this evening into
tomorrow for elevated winds as low pressure tracks across the area.

- SCA for coastal waters (northern zones) linger into Thurs due to
seas remaining around 5ft.

High pressure is now well offshore as low pressure approaches from
the west. Winds over most of the waters have turned to the SE at
around 15kt, but far northern waters are still showing a more
southerly direction. Buoy obs reflect seas of 2-3ft and waves at 1-
2ft (2-3ft at the mouth of the bay). Low pressure will track towards
the area tonight, crossing the waters sometime tomorrow morning.
Winds will increase this evening and into tonight as the pressure
gradient tightens. By this evenings, winds will be up to 15-20kt
(gusts to 25kt) with the highest winds located in the southern
coastal waters and lower bay. This axis of higher winds (associated
w/ enhanced pressure falls) will gradually move northward into the
rest of the coastal waters (on the nrn side of the low) into early
Wednesday. Small craft advisories are in effect for all of the
waters (upper rivers have been added) for frequent gusts to 25-30
kt, starting at 20z/4 PM today in the srn bay, 23z/7 PM for the
upper bay and rivers, 2z/10 PM for the Currituck Sound and coastal
waters S of Cape Charles, and then early Wed morning for the coastal
waters N of Cape Charles. Waves in the bay become 2-4 ft tonight.
Seas will also increase to 4-6 ft, potentially up to 7 ft given the
onshore flow. However, the relatively brief nature of the elevated
easterly winds should prevent the nearshore seas from getting too
high. Elevated seas persist longest in the nrn waters, so the
current SCA there goes through early Thursday.

Winds then become N-NE for most of the waters Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday as the low meanders offshore to our E. There is
moderate disagreement in the global models regarding how long the
low lingers and how close to shore it will be. This will result in
at least breezy northerly winds through at least Thurs night.
Current forecast has the winds just below SCA criteria for most
waters, so cannot rule out additional advisories. Conditions look to
improve for the weekend, but with onshore flow forecast, cannot rule
out seas building to 5ft just yet.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...AM/SW