Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 110836 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 436 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the area today. A weak trough crosses the region tonight. High pressure builds north of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure tracks across the southeast states. High pressure builds over the area Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday... Pcpn INVOF NE NC earlier has dissipated. A mid level s/w will be crossing the region today w/ VRB clouds-partly cloudy conditions expected. Another cool day w/ NNE winds blo 10 kt becoming VRB. Highs in the u60s-l70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday... A weak secondary sfc boundary and trough aloft swings through the region tonight resulting in mostly cloudy conditions and only a SLGT chc for SHRAs...mainly N and E. Winds become NNW and gusty (esp at the coast) after midnight. Lows in the 40s...except around 50F along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Moderate Canadian hi pres begins to build into the region from the NNW Wed while lo pres and its associated widespread cloudiness and rain track through the SE CONUS states. Excepting considerable cloudiness over much of the local area Wed and have kept a chc (20-30%) for rain mainly along-S of the VA-NC border. There will be a trend toward clearing from the NNW late. Cool again w/ NNE winds and highs from the m60s N to the u50s-l60s S. Hi pres will extend from the Great Lakes to the mid-Atlantic region Wed night-Wed...resulting in cool/dry wx. Lows in the l-m40s...u40s-around 50F right along the coast. Mainly sunny Thu w/ highs from the m60s to around 70F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Monday... Low rain chances and slowly moderating temperatures expected for the extended forecast period. A weakening area of low pressure lifts NE region across the region Thursday night into Friday, but the current NBM only has slight chc PoPs, and there was no convincing reason to stray from this. Temperatures slowly moderate through the extended period, generally going up a degree or two each day. Friday`s highs start out in the upper 60s to lower 70s and by the time we reach next Sunday and Monday, highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures start out in the mid to upper 40s Thursday night with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s by the weekend, and then lower to mid 50s early next week. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday... Pcpn INVOF NE NC has dissipated...otw VRB VFR conditions (any CIGS aoa 5-7kft). Mid level s/w tracks across the FA today keeping VRB VFR conditions (and poss periods of CIGS aoa 5-7 kft) generally through early/mid afternoon. NNE winds mainly blo 10 kt becoming VRB late. A secondary boundary sinks S across the FA tonight w/ lo prob for SHRAs...esp at SBY. Lo pres tracks E across the SE CONUS states Wed as sfc hi pres is slow to move SE from the Midwest. Widespread mainly VFR CIGS expected into Wed afternoon (w/ exception to SBY) and there will be a lo prob for light rain INVOF ECG. Hi pres builds across the local area Thu. A weak upper level trough will bring a SLGT chc of SHRAS Fri to be followed by dry conditions Sat. Overall...VFR conditions are expected Wed night-Sat. && .MARINE...
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As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday... Weak area of high pressure is building into the area today. Northerly winds will be diminishing this morning and become NE 5-10 kt this afternoon. Waves in the bay will be 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. Cold front will approach the area from the north as high pressure slides off the coast this evening. Tuesday evening, winds will briefly turn southerly and increase 10-15 kt north of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Behind the cold front, winds quickly turn northerly overnight Tuesday night as high pressure builds into the region and strengthens. Winds will likely reach SCA levels for the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and NC coastal ocean waters. Waves in the bay may get a little higher during this surge (2-4 ft) late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, subsiding to 1-2 ft during the afternoon and early evening on Wednesday. Seas will be 2-4 ft Tuesday and 3-4 ft Wednesday, except potentially up to 5 ft in the NC waters early Wed.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634-638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM AVIATION...ALB MARINE...CP/LKB

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