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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032030
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
330 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues to track out to sea off the SE coast. A
dry cold front moves through Thursday morning with high pressure
returning to end the week. Another area of low pressure tracks
well to the south of the local area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 255 PM EST Wednesday...

This afternoon, high pressure is centered off the Va coastline,
while low pressure continues to move out to sea off the SE coast.
Locally, clouds associated with that system have moved offshore
allowing for clear skies across the FA this afternoon which will
continue through the night. Winds are light out of the WSW generally
<5 MPH for most and 5-10 MPH over the Eastern Shore. Winds will
remain light and variable tonight before gradually shifting to the
WNW/NW late tonight as a cold front begins to drop south into the
northern portion of the FA. Temperatures as of 2:30 PM ranged from
the low to mid 50s over the Eastern Shore and the upper 50s to
around 60F over the rest of the FA. Clear skies and calm winds will
allow temps to drop into the low to mid 30s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EST Wednesday...

A dry cold front pushes south through the FA Thurs morning shifting
winds to NNW/N around 10 MPH inland and 10-15 MPH along the coast
and over the Eastern Shore by late morning into the afternoon. Gusts
to 20 MPH inland and 25-30 MPH along the coast and over the Eastern
Shore will be possible. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies Thurs
with the greatest cloud cover over the Eastern Shore. Any remaining
cloud cover dissipates Thurs night as high pressure builds in from
the NW. Highs Thurs in the upper 50s to around 60F SW, low to mid
50s in the Northern Neck, and around 50F in the Eastern Shore.
Colder Thurs night with lows in the mid to upper 20s for most and
upper 20s to around 30F along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EST Wednesday...

Mainly dry weather for Friday night through early next week.
Another upper shortwave is progged to track from the Deep South to
off the SE CONUS coast from Friday night through Saturday. A strong
long wave trough over eastern Canada will keep this system and its
moisture suppressed well to our south (from srn SC to FL). This will
also keep temps below seasonal averages through the weekend (w/
continued low-level NNW flow). Highs Sat/Sun will generally be in
the mid 40s to low 50s. Lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Our dry stretch will continue through the Long Term period with
milder temperatures returning. The long wave trough will move
off the East Coast by Monday. Ridging aloft will build over the
regions as sfc high pressure becomes centered over the Mid-
Atlantic/Carolinas. High temperatures will warm each day from
the 50s on Monday to upper 60s by Wednesday. Monday morning will
likely be the coldest morning as a result of a sfc high
pressure being centered over the area. Lows will be in the mid
20s to around 30. Low temperatures will warm each morning and
be in the 30s and 40s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1235 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z taf period. Skies are SKC
except a few high cirrus over the far SE which will quickly move
offshore. Mid to high level cloud deck increases by Thurs
afternoon across the piedmont and Eastern Shore with FEW to SCT
cloud cover. Winds are generally out of the WSW around 5 kt,
will become light and variable overnight, and will then become
NNW and increase to around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt (possibly
to 25 kt at SBY) late Thurs morning into the afternoon behind a
cold front.

OUTLOOK...A prolonged period of generally benign weather is
expected to continue into early next week as high pressure
builds back over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EST Wednesday...

Latest obs reflect light/variable flow across the waters this aftn.
Sfc high pressure continues to linger offshore of the mid-Atlantic
coast, with sfc low pressure offshore of the coastal Carolinas this
aftn. This feature will slowly push farther offshore through tonight.
Winds will remain generally light this aftn into tonight aob 10kt.

CAMs continue to indicate sfc cold front dropping south across the
local waters early Thu morning...w/ poss brief period of enhanced
speeds to may low end SCA for an hour or two, especially over
elevated terminals across the Bay. Local Wind probs continue to show
AOB 30% prob of SCA criteria being met, so will hold off and cap
winds at 15 kt. Winds briefly subside into the afternoon...to be
followed by a second/stronger period of CAA late Thu aftn through
Friday morning. SCA has been hoisted for the entire marine area,
starting tomorrow afternoon north of Chincoteague, starting tomorrow
evening for the rest of the marine area.

Generally benign marine conditions then favored later Fri and over
the upcoming weekend. Sfc high pressure rebuilds over the region,
eventually pushing offshore late in the weekend into early next week
w/ another weak sfc lo pres moves E-NE across the Gulf coast to the
southeast coast. Looking to remain sub-SCA through this time
frame...w/ with winds out of the N-NW Sun-Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 255 PM EST Wednesday...

A Flood Warning remains in effect for Richmond-Westham and the
gage crested at 12.55 ft yesterday afternoon. See FLSAKQ and
water.weather.gov for more details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Thursday night to 6 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to noon EST Friday for
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight Thursday night to noon EST
     Friday for ANZ633-638-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...CP/ERI
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...