Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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241 FXUS61 KAKQ 242006 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 406 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves into The Tennessee Valley this evening, and will slide east across the Carolinas tonight. The low then pushes offshore early Sunday. A weak trough swings across the region Sunday afternoon, followed by high pressure building into the local area Sunday night through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Latest analysis indicating strong sfc high pressure (1040mb+) centered over James Bay Canada, ridging south through the Great lakes and into the local area this aftn, though starting to see falling sfc pressure across the local area and this trend will continue into the early evening. Sfc low pressure is moving through the lower OH/mid-MS Valley, well out ahead of a strong upper low spinning over Iowa/northern IL. Clouds are streaming into the CWA in the NW flow aloft, and temperatures remain on the cool side, averaging from the mid 40s to around 50 F. By this evening, latest 24/12Z NAM/GFS into fairly good agreement that ~1008mb sfc low pressure will be centered over western TN/SW KY with a secondary area of falling pressure/sfc troughing extending across GA into SC. Strong lift through the DGZ (-12 to -18C) is progged to be moving into north central NC and SW/south central VA by 00Z this evening. Boundary layer will initially be well above freezing, but with sfc dew pts in the 20s, expect readings to fall/wet-bulb rather quickly between 00-03Z in areas where high precipitation intensity occurs. This should allow for a changeover to wet snow from 02-04Z over south central VA zones, though deepest moisture still appears to barely brush far SW portions of AKQ CWA. Overall, anticipating a narrow zone of accumulating snow to around 1" or perhaps a little more to clip Mecklenburg Co, with mainly little to nothing not far to the N/NE of that. Mostly cloudy, but remaining dry north of I64 tonight, buffered by a 20-40% to south side of metro Richmond and to the Peninsula and Hampton Roads. Given marginal sfc temperatures, this will not warrant an advisory and will continue to highlight a light snow accumulation potential in the HWO. Lows in the upper 20s northern most zones to low to mid 30s across the south. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lingering light pcpn (rain or a rain/snow mix) across far srn tier zones early Sun morning (mainly before 12Z) with skies becoming pt sunny during the mid-late morning as high pressure to the north builds into the area. Secondary trough swings south across the nern zones in the aftn, and have ~20% PoPs from 15-21Z mainly over the eastern shore and zones just west of Ches Bay N of the Peninsula. In all likelihood, this will just end up as flurries or sprinkles as deep moisture will be lacking. Do think that skies once again become mostly cloudy/BKN even well inland during this period given an onshore low level flow. Brisk with gusty N/NE winds 15-25 mph along with highs only in the mid-upper 40s. Strong/1040 mb+ high pressure across ern Canada will nose down the ern slopes of the Appalachians Sun night through Mon night. NE winds along with periodic cloud coverage will continue the well below normal temps. Dry and becoming mostly clear Sun night with lows upr 20s nw to mid 30s se. Highs Mon in the mid 40s near the coast to upper 40s/lower 50s inland. Mostly clear/cold Mon night with lows mid 20s to lower 30s and highs on Tue rebounding a bit closer to normal (but still several degrees below) into the mid-upper 50s well inland and upper 40s/lower 50s at the coast. Clouds increase in the aftn as the sfc high slides offshore. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Finally...temperatures averaging around normal in the extended portion of the forecast. This period starts out cool with temperatures moderating mid- late week. Deep layered SW flow develops from the Plains states to the mid Atlantic region Wed...w/ one weak lo pres area passing by N of the local area (into Thu). A second...more amplified system develops invof MS Valley Thu then tracks to the E coast through Fri eve. Both systems will bring increased cloudiness and PoPs. Highest Pops (50-70%) will be during Fri as a moderate cold front crosses the FA. Blended GFS/ECMWF/WPC through the period wrt timing of pcpn. Drying out by Sat. Lows Tue night from the m30s inland to around 40F at the immediate coast. Highs Wed in the l-m50s at the coast to the l-m60s inland. Lows Wed night in the m-u40s N to the l50s S. Highs Thu in the u50s-around 60F on the ern shore...the l-m60s in ern VA near the Ches Bay/Ocean...and u60s over the piedmont and mainly 70-75F from central VA to interior NE NC. Low Thu night from the u40s to m50s. Highs to the m-u60s in central VA to interior NE NC. Highs Fri in the m-u50s at the coast to the l-m60s inland. Highs Sat in the l50s at the coast to the m-u50s elsewhere. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions prevail this aftn/early evening with high clouds gradually thickening/lowering late this evening and tonight. Still should remain VFR at main terminals with the exception of KECG where light rain and potential MVFR cigs ~2500 to 3000 ft will be possible tonight. Snow appears unlikely at KECG though, tending to remain farther inland over south central VA and perhaps interior NE NC west of KECG. Winds shifting to the NNE Sun morning with partial clearing for awhile, though next trough and NE low level winds will tend to increase clouds from 15-18Z. Outlook: High pres becomes anchored over New England, with VFR conditions then expected Sun night through Tue/Wed. && .MARINE... Sfc hi pres extends from N of the Great Lakes SE to the local waters this afternoon...resulting in sub-SCA conditions as NW winds continue to wane. A weak area of low pressure approaches and passes S of the region Saturday night into Sun morning. Lo pres deepens (well) E and offshore of the local waters Sun-Mon. VRB winds blo 15 kt tonight...becoming NE late. NE winds will be increasing substantial by late Sun morning as strong sfc hi pres invof SE Canada starts to build S. Windspeeds to increase to 15-30 kt Sun afternoon. Model guidance and wind probabilities indicate the potential for occasional Gale force gusts across the srn ocean waters Sun night. Have gone w/ strong SCAs (increasing to 20-25 kt on the nrn Ches Bay...25-30 kt over the srn Ches Bay...over the ocean waters and on the Currituck Sound (15-25 kt for the VA rivers). Seas also build quickly Sun...reaching 7-9 ft N...8 to 9 ft S. Waves on the bay to 2-5 ft...5-7 ft at the mouth. Winds will remain strong into Mon afternoon before slowly waning heading into mid week. However...despite lowering winds Tue- Wed...elevated conditions...esp in the form seas aoa 5 ft, are expected to remain over the local ocean waters as the ocean storm lingers (well) offshore. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 5 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 5 PM EDT Monday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...LKB/MPR MARINE...AJB/ALB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.