Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210157 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 957 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits the coast overnight. High pressure returns Tuesday and Wednesday, then shifts off the coast late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 940 PM EDT Monday... Last of the convection tracking through SE portion of the FA attm...then shifts off the coast overnight. A cold frontremains just of the FA and that front reaches the coast by late tonight. SW winds 5-15 mph shift to NNW as cool/dry air advection takes place. It will remain fairly breezy in the wake of the front along the Bay and coast (20 mph or so). Lows from the u50s N and NW to the u60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... Tues/Wed will be much cooler and drier (even slightly below avg for temperatures in some areas). This as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes gradually builds SE into the local area by Tue aftn through Tue night, then becomes centered from the eastern Great Lakes to the VA coast on Wed. Dry with mostly sunny skies both Tue/Wed and mostly clear Tue night. Highs Tuesday mostly in the 70s except near lower 80s possible south central VA to interior NE NC. Dew pts will fall into the 40s N and the lower-mid 50s S. Lows Tue night in the 50s except some upr 40s psbl in those normally cooler locations over the Piedmont. Highs Wed upper 70s to lower 80s inland, and lower to mid 70s near the Bay and Ocean. The high shifts east Wed night and Thurs allowing the start of the next warmup. Models continue to show a NW flow upr level flow pattern setting up that could allow for another round of upstream convective to dive se. GFS remains most aggressive with this, while the NAM/ECMWF are genly drier. Timing can be a problem this far out so kept sonly ~20% PoPs in the forecast fro late Wed night into Thu. light chc PoPs in for now with plenty of time to update as necessary. Lows Wed night upr 50s- lwr 60s. Highs Thurs mid- upr 80s, upper 70s- lwr 80s near the water. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... A few tstms are possible (highest chances NE) Thu night as a weak disturbance in NW flow aloft tracks through the region. Otherwise, strong upper-level ridging (and associated anticyclone) remains centered over the Southeast for much of the extended period while a series of shortwaves track well to our N (from the Upper Midwest to New England). As a result, very high confidence in above average temperatures (and mostly dry conditions) from Fri through early next week. A weak cold front may try to sneak into nrn/ern portions of the CWA on Sat AM, but no pcpn is expected with the FROPA. The front quickly washes out during the day on Sat. Perhaps a brief shower/tstm Sat night, but otherwise dry this weekend. Slight chances for mainly aftn-evening showers/tstms may return early next week as the center of the anticyclone retreats slightly to the southwest. Highs mainly in the low-mid 90s inland on Fri with mid 80s-around 90F near the coast. Still very warm on Sat with highs ranging from the mid 80-low 90s (highest inland/coolest over the Lower MD Ern Shore). Sunday may be the hottest day of the weekend with highs will be in the mid 90s in most areas w/ upper 80s on the Lower Ern Shore. Lows throughout the extended period will mainly in the mid 60s-around 70F. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Monday... Scattered showers are moving along a gust front located from SE VA to the Lower Ern Shore this evening. Prevailing winds are SW at ~10 kt, but winds will temporarily turn to the WNW behind the gust front (and briefly gust to 20-25 kt). This has already happened at RIC/SBY, and will happen shortly at PHF/ORF. Meanwhile, a true cold front is located across the VA Piedmont/Mountains and is moving toward the terminals. The cold front will be pushing through central VA by 06Z, before moving across SE VA/NE NC by 12-15z. Showers will linger across the southeastern terminals from now through 03-06z. VSBYS could briefly drop to MVFR/IFR levels in any of the showers. Otherwise, expect prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals through the 00z TAF period. BKN CIGS at 6-9k feet will scatter out later tonight before skies become mostly clear by Tue AM. Winds shift to the NNW tonight behind the cold front and then to the NNE on Tue (remaining gusty to ~20 kt at the coast). VFR/mostly sunny Tue. OUTLOOK... VFR conditions continue late Tue through Wed as high pressure is slow to move east. A NW flow pattern sets up by the end of the week. This may lead to sct convection moving NW-SE across the area starting late Wed night and Thu. && .MARINE... && .CLIMATE... * Records for Today/Mon 5/20: * Salisbury so far has a new record high min today if this value stands through midnight LST (1am EDT). * Site Record High Record High Min * Richmond: 96 (1934) 71 (2018) (actual low 69) * Norfolk: 98 (1996) 73 (1996) (actual low 71) * Salisbury: 98 (1911) 70 (2018) *(actual low 71) * Eliz City: 98 (1996) 73 (2018) (actual low 71) * Avg Date of 1st 90F (1981-2010 Climatology): * Site Avg 2019 Value * Richmond: May 13th (Sun 5/19) * Norfolk: May 16th (Sun 5/19) * Salisbury: May 27th (none so far) * Eliz City: May 18th (Sat 5/18) * Number of Days of 90F+ in May: * Site Avg Most * Richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962) * Norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880) * Salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991) * Eliz City: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941) && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ 88D down UFN. Apparent comms/RDA modem problem. Techs notified. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...JDM/RHR CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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