Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291038 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 638 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly flow in advance of a slow moving cold front approaching from the west will keep a moist and humid air mass in place through Saturday. A cold front is then expected to sweep across the region Saturday night, bringing cooler and drier air to the region Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 640 AM EDT Friday... A broad upper trough will advance eastward today through the Midwest and TN Valley, with the trough axis reaching the Appalachians by tonight. Meanwhile, the local area will remain on the western periphery of Bermuda high pressure with deep layer southerly flow continuing to funnel sub-tropical moisture northward from the GOMEX and western Caribbean. A quick look at the current radar composite doesn`t show much early this morning outside of sct showers over central/eastern NC. Hi-res guidance does show shwr activity continuing to increase in coverage for the next few hours, and so will show increasing PoPs (30-40%) for much of the area this morning. Shower (isold tstm) coverage should favor areas along and east of the I-95 corridor thru 18z while PoPs lower across the Piedmont. Still no higher than 30-50% PoPs east thru 18z for scattered showers (isold thunder) with slight chc PoPs over the Piedmont. After 18z, we should start to see another batch of shwrs/tstms get going to our west in advance of the advancing trough with decent height falls and increasing deep layer shear. Additionally, scattered shwrs and a few tstms should be ongoing across far southern/SE VA into NE NC. Low level moisture will continue to be anomalously high today which will allow for the development of moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) during the afternoon. SPC does have the western 2/3rds of our area in a marginal risk of svr wx today, but judging by the latest CAMS (and especially the NAMnest) the best chance of strong/svr storms locally may not come until late this afternoon into this evening as a line of convection rolls in from the west. Confidence in that occuring is low. Any stronger storms that are able to develop this afternoon will be capable of heavy rain and localized down burst winds, but also isolated instances of large hail will be possible given the marginally cooler temps aloft and stronger shear. Temperatures warm into the low and mid 80s by the afternoon (except mid 70s MD beaches). Any lingering shwrs/tstms this evening will shift to the coast after 06z while dissipating. Continued warm and muggy tonight with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Friday... An upper trough pivots across the local area on Saturday in advance of an approaching cold front that is expected to sweep through the area Saturday night and finally bring some cooler/drier air to the area for Sunday. In advance of the cold front, looking for additional scattered showers and tstms to occur. Coverage will favor sern areas prior to 18z Sat, then hi-res guidance shows a broken line of convection potentially developing around the I-95 corridor in the afternoon and advancing SE into the early evening. Potential is there for some strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon across SE VA/NE NC given strong shear in place with the upper trough, cooling aloft and MLCAPE values reaching 1500 j/kg. SPC has areas from around RIC on S & E in a marginal risk on Saturday. After the storms move out Sat evening with the cold front, we clear/dry out heading into Sunday. Highs Sat will again be able to warm into the low- mid 80s. Lows Sat night fall into the mid-upr 50s NW to low-mid 60s SE. Highs Sunday will reach the low to mid 70s with much lower humidity. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Thursday... Dry and comfortable weather continues into early next week with high pressure overhead on Monday. High temps warm into the low 70s with overnight lows falling into the upper 40s and low 50s Monday night. High pressure exits offshore on Tuesday, allowing winds to veer to the southwest. Continued dry through the afternoon and evening with high temps warming into the mid 70s. Model guidance diverges into the mid week period with several tough to time shortwave troughs noted in the mean NW flow aloft. Will show temps increasing back into the low 80s with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday into the end of the work week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 640 AM EDT Friday... S winds will continue through the 12Z/Fri TAF period, with some gusts around 20 kt during the late morning and afternoon hours. Scattered shwrs and a few afternoon/evening tstms are expected today. It will be hard to time when any one location will receive a shwr/tstm today, so just have VCSH during the time frames this would be most likely. MVFR CIGS will impact RIC/SBY/PHF thru 13z before improving to VFR by mid-late morning. OUTLOOK...Bouts of shwrs/tstms will continue tonight through Sat evening, as a cold front approaches and pushes across the area from the west. Becoming drier Sat night and Sun, as the front pushes out to sea and high pressure begins to build in from the NW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... S winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts ovr the cstl waters today. Seas so far have remained blo 5 ft. Data continues to show some 5 ft seas out near 20 nm across the nrn cstl wtrs. Given the current trends, dropped the SCA over the srn cstl waters but kept the SCA for 5 ft seas out nr 20 nm ovr the nrn cstl waters thru tonite. A cold front crosses the waters late Sat with a wind shift to the NNW behind it. Latest data suggests a svrl hr CAA surge down the Ches Bay arnd 12Z Sun. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/RHR LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MPR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.