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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
647 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will rebuild over the area for the weekend. Low
pressure approaches from the west Monday, with a trailing cold
front crossing the area Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...

Latest analysis reveals ~980mb surface low lifting across the
Bay of Fundy/Atlantic Canada. Parent upper low continues to lift
across New England this morning, with shortwave ridging allowing
for quick clearing across the region this morning. To the west,
~1026mb sfc high pressure continues to build from the upper
midwest across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley today, allowing for a
chilly start and a mild, dry afternoon across the local area.
Remaining breezy today as gradient remains a bit compressed
between exiting low pressure and high pressure building in from
the west, but winds will drop off a bit from those of Friday.
Plentiful sunshine will help with the early chill later this
morning and a pleasant afternoon is on the way across the area.
Highs today ~60 inland, with highs in the low to mid 50s over
coastal communities.

Winds relax tonight as surface high builds in from the west.
Clear sky, dry air mass, and diminishing winds should team up to
bring a cool night across the area. Undercut cooler MET guidance
by a few degrees, yielding early morning lows in the low to mid
30s, except a few upr 20s in normally colder spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...

Surface high will be over the area to begin the day on Sunday,
with return flow ramping up as surface ridge slides offshore
Sunday aftn/night. Milder on Sunday, with highs in the mid to
upper 60s west of the Ches Bay, 50s to near 60 along the coast.
Increasing clouds later Sun night with Shallow overrunning
ensuing. Feasible that some sprinkles/light rain could sneak in
toward dawn Monday morning, but kept PoPs out for now with
chances of measuring appearing quite low attm. Lows in the 40s.

Showers overspreads the area west to east Mon as the low
pressure tracks across the area. Highest PoPS in the afternoon.
Mild ahead of the trailing cold front with highs in the 60s
except some 50s at the beaches. Steady rain Monday night, as a
strong trailing cold front pushes across the area Mon night
with pcpn ending behind it Monday night northern/central
zones...and after midnight across Tidewater/NE NC. Lows in the
30s north, 40-45 south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...

Strong cool Canadian high pressure is progged (per 22/12z
numerical guidance) to build in from the N Tuesday in the wake
of the departing cold front and area of low pressure. Timing
differences appear to have (at least temporarily) eased with the
00z suite of models, with the CMC trending toward the GFS idea
of a stronger mid level ridge and a more suppressed southerly
system. A slight to low end chance PoP has been maintained to
begin the day Tuesday morning, mainly for srn VA/NE NC...but
expect later day clearing. Still, highs Tuesday will remain
chilly...~10-15F below seasonal averages, with highs ranging
from the mid 40s along the coast, to around 50F inland. Lows
Tuesday night range from the upper 20s N the the mid 30s SE.
Cool high pressure remains over the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night with dry and mostly sunny/clear conditions, and
high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, followed by lows
in the low 30s N/NW to around 40F SE. High pressure slides
offshore Thursday into Friday resulting in a warming trend (but
remaining dry). Forecast highs reach the mid 50s along the coast
to low/mid 60s inland Thursday, and then upper 50s/low 60s
along the coast to mid/upper 60s inland Friday. Lows Thursday
night/Friday morning range from the upper 30s to mid 40s, then
mid 40s to low 50s Friday night/Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions have returned across area terminals this
morning, with VFR conditions to persist through the 12z TAF
period and beyond through the weekend. Winds will remain gusty
with still-compressed pressure gradient. W-NW winds 15-20 kt
with gusts up to 25 kt from late morning through this aftn
before relaxing tonight (Sat night), as pressure gradient
slackens with sfc high pressure building overhead.

Outlook:
High pressure will be in place over the region to begin the day
on Sunday, before sliding offshore Sunday aftn and night. Low
pressure along with a strong trailing cold front approaches from
the NW Monday, and crosses the area Monday aftn and night, with
high pressure building in from the N Tuesday. There is a
likelihood for degraded flight conditions Monday night into the
day on Tuesday, with VFR returning later Tue through the middle
of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

Early morning surface analysis shows ~980mb low pressure well to the
northeast over eastern Maine and 1024mb high pressure nosing
southeastward from the upper Midwest into the local area. Check of
marine observations shows west and northwest winds with 20-25 knots
across the northern Bay and offshore zones with gusts 35-40 knots.
Waves in the Bay are 2-4 feet with seas offshore generally 4-7 feet.

Gale Warnings remain in effect for the northern Bay and offshore
north of Cape Charles Light this morning and have extended the Bay
warning a few hours further until 11Z/7am given strong gusts 35-40
knots observed over the last hour or two. Elsewhere, SCA headlines
are in effect for all remaining marine zones this morning. The
pressure gradient should begin to relax over the course of the
morning with winds in the Bay dropping to 15-20 knots and 20-25
knots offshore. Winds should drop below SCA thresholds everywhere by
this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. Waves will
decrease to 2-3 feet in the Bay this afternoon and 1-2 feet by this
evening. Seas will be a little slower to subside this afternoon and
offshore zones may need a short extension in SCA headlines to cover
5 foot seas out closer to 20nmi.

Generally expecting quiet marine conditions tonight and Sunday as
northwesterly winds veer around to southwesterly ahead of the next
area of low pressure approaching from the west. Southwest winds will
increase to 10-15 knots on Monday before a strong cold front crosses
the waters Monday evening. Strong north and northeast flow will
follow the frontal passage with SCAs likely and the potential for
Gales across the southern offshore zones. Seas will build
considerably (5-7 feet N and 7-9 feet S) with stout NE winds
Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 345 AM Saturday...

We have cancelled the flood warnings on the James at Westham/RIC
Locks. Flood warning for the Meherrin River at Lawrenceville
continues with a crest expected later this morning. See
FLSAKQ for details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ631-
     632-634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM/CP
MARINE...RHR
HYDROLOGY...