Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231047 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 647 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will rebuild over the area for the weekend. Low pressure approaches from the west Monday, with a trailing cold front crossing the area Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Saturday... Latest analysis reveals ~980mb surface low lifting across the Bay of Fundy/Atlantic Canada. Parent upper low continues to lift across New England this morning, with shortwave ridging allowing for quick clearing across the region this morning. To the west, ~1026mb sfc high pressure continues to build from the upper midwest across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley today, allowing for a chilly start and a mild, dry afternoon across the local area. Remaining breezy today as gradient remains a bit compressed between exiting low pressure and high pressure building in from the west, but winds will drop off a bit from those of Friday. Plentiful sunshine will help with the early chill later this morning and a pleasant afternoon is on the way across the area. Highs today ~60 inland, with highs in the low to mid 50s over coastal communities. Winds relax tonight as surface high builds in from the west. Clear sky, dry air mass, and diminishing winds should team up to bring a cool night across the area. Undercut cooler MET guidance by a few degrees, yielding early morning lows in the low to mid 30s, except a few upr 20s in normally colder spots. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Saturday... Surface high will be over the area to begin the day on Sunday, with return flow ramping up as surface ridge slides offshore Sunday aftn/night. Milder on Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s west of the Ches Bay, 50s to near 60 along the coast. Increasing clouds later Sun night with Shallow overrunning ensuing. Feasible that some sprinkles/light rain could sneak in toward dawn Monday morning, but kept PoPs out for now with chances of measuring appearing quite low attm. Lows in the 40s. Showers overspreads the area west to east Mon as the low pressure tracks across the area. Highest PoPS in the afternoon. Mild ahead of the trailing cold front with highs in the 60s except some 50s at the beaches. Steady rain Monday night, as a strong trailing cold front pushes across the area Mon night with pcpn ending behind it Monday night northern/central zones...and after midnight across Tidewater/NE NC. Lows in the 30s north, 40-45 south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Saturday... Strong cool Canadian high pressure is progged (per 22/12z numerical guidance) to build in from the N Tuesday in the wake of the departing cold front and area of low pressure. Timing differences appear to have (at least temporarily) eased with the 00z suite of models, with the CMC trending toward the GFS idea of a stronger mid level ridge and a more suppressed southerly system. A slight to low end chance PoP has been maintained to begin the day Tuesday morning, mainly for srn VA/NE NC...but expect later day clearing. Still, highs Tuesday will remain chilly...~10-15F below seasonal averages, with highs ranging from the mid 40s along the coast, to around 50F inland. Lows Tuesday night range from the upper 20s N the the mid 30s SE. Cool high pressure remains over the area Wednesday into Wednesday night with dry and mostly sunny/clear conditions, and high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, followed by lows in the low 30s N/NW to around 40F SE. High pressure slides offshore Thursday into Friday resulting in a warming trend (but remaining dry). Forecast highs reach the mid 50s along the coast to low/mid 60s inland Thursday, and then upper 50s/low 60s along the coast to mid/upper 60s inland Friday. Lows Thursday night/Friday morning range from the upper 30s to mid 40s, then mid 40s to low 50s Friday night/Saturday morning. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions have returned across area terminals this morning, with VFR conditions to persist through the 12z TAF period and beyond through the weekend. Winds will remain gusty with still-compressed pressure gradient. W-NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt from late morning through this aftn before relaxing tonight (Sat night), as pressure gradient slackens with sfc high pressure building overhead. Outlook: High pressure will be in place over the region to begin the day on Sunday, before sliding offshore Sunday aftn and night. Low pressure along with a strong trailing cold front approaches from the NW Monday, and crosses the area Monday aftn and night, with high pressure building in from the N Tuesday. There is a likelihood for degraded flight conditions Monday night into the day on Tuesday, with VFR returning later Tue through the middle of next week. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Early morning surface analysis shows ~980mb low pressure well to the northeast over eastern Maine and 1024mb high pressure nosing southeastward from the upper Midwest into the local area. Check of marine observations shows west and northwest winds with 20-25 knots across the northern Bay and offshore zones with gusts 35-40 knots. Waves in the Bay are 2-4 feet with seas offshore generally 4-7 feet. Gale Warnings remain in effect for the northern Bay and offshore north of Cape Charles Light this morning and have extended the Bay warning a few hours further until 11Z/7am given strong gusts 35-40 knots observed over the last hour or two. Elsewhere, SCA headlines are in effect for all remaining marine zones this morning. The pressure gradient should begin to relax over the course of the morning with winds in the Bay dropping to 15-20 knots and 20-25 knots offshore. Winds should drop below SCA thresholds everywhere by this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. Waves will decrease to 2-3 feet in the Bay this afternoon and 1-2 feet by this evening. Seas will be a little slower to subside this afternoon and offshore zones may need a short extension in SCA headlines to cover 5 foot seas out closer to 20nmi. Generally expecting quiet marine conditions tonight and Sunday as northwesterly winds veer around to southwesterly ahead of the next area of low pressure approaching from the west. Southwest winds will increase to 10-15 knots on Monday before a strong cold front crosses the waters Monday evening. Strong north and northeast flow will follow the frontal passage with SCAs likely and the potential for Gales across the southern offshore zones. Seas will build considerably (5-7 feet N and 7-9 feet S) with stout NE winds Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 345 AM Saturday... We have cancelled the flood warnings on the James at Westham/RIC Locks. Flood warning for the Meherrin River at Lawrenceville continues with a crest expected later this morning. See FLSAKQ for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ631- 632-634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630. Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MAM/CP MARINE...RHR HYDROLOGY...

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