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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
957 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits the coast overnight. High pressure returns
Tuesday and Wednesday, then shifts off the coast late in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 PM EDT Monday...

Last of the convection tracking through SE portion of the FA
attm...then shifts off the coast overnight. A cold frontremains
just of the FA and that front reaches the coast by late tonight.
SW winds 5-15 mph shift to NNW as cool/dry air advection takes
place. It will remain fairly breezy in the wake of the front
along the Bay and coast (20 mph or so). Lows from the u50s N and
NW to the u60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Tues/Wed will be much cooler and drier (even slightly below avg
for temperatures in some areas). This as high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes gradually builds SE into the local area by
Tue aftn through Tue night, then becomes centered from the
eastern Great Lakes to the VA coast on Wed. Dry with mostly
sunny skies both Tue/Wed and mostly clear Tue night. Highs
Tuesday mostly in the 70s except near lower 80s possible south
central VA to interior NE NC. Dew pts will fall into the 40s N
and the lower-mid 50s S. Lows Tue night in the 50s except some
upr 40s psbl in those normally cooler locations over the
Piedmont. Highs Wed upper 70s to lower 80s inland, and lower to
mid 70s near the Bay and Ocean.

The high shifts east Wed night and Thurs allowing the start of
the next warmup. Models continue to show a NW flow upr level
flow pattern setting up that could allow for another round of
upstream convective to dive se. GFS remains most aggressive with
this, while the NAM/ECMWF are genly drier. Timing can be a
problem this far out so kept sonly ~20% PoPs in the forecast fro
late Wed night into Thu. light chc PoPs in for now with plenty
of time to update as necessary. Lows Wed night upr 50s- lwr 60s.
Highs Thurs mid- upr 80s, upper 70s- lwr 80s near the water.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

A few tstms are possible (highest chances NE) Thu night as a weak
disturbance in NW flow aloft tracks through the region. Otherwise,
strong upper-level ridging (and associated anticyclone) remains
centered over the Southeast for much of the extended period while a
series of shortwaves track well to our N (from the Upper Midwest to
New England). As a result, very high confidence in above average
temperatures (and mostly dry conditions) from Fri through early next
week. A weak cold front may try to sneak into nrn/ern portions of
the CWA on Sat AM, but no pcpn is expected with the FROPA. The front
quickly washes out during the day on Sat. Perhaps a brief
shower/tstm Sat night, but otherwise dry this weekend. Slight
chances for mainly aftn-evening showers/tstms may return early next
week as the center of the anticyclone retreats slightly to the
southwest. Highs mainly in the low-mid 90s inland on Fri with mid
80s-around 90F near the coast. Still very warm on Sat with highs
ranging from the mid 80-low 90s (highest inland/coolest over the
Lower MD Ern Shore). Sunday may be the hottest day of the weekend
with highs will be in the mid 90s in most areas w/ upper 80s on the
Lower Ern Shore. Lows throughout the extended period will mainly in
the mid 60s-around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Monday...

Scattered showers are moving along a gust front located from SE VA
to the Lower Ern Shore this evening. Prevailing winds are SW at ~10
kt, but winds will temporarily turn to the WNW behind the gust front
(and briefly gust to 20-25 kt). This has already happened at
RIC/SBY, and will happen shortly at PHF/ORF. Meanwhile, a true cold
front is located across the VA Piedmont/Mountains and is moving
toward the terminals. The cold front will be pushing through central
VA by 06Z, before moving across SE VA/NE NC by 12-15z. Showers will
linger across the southeastern terminals from now through 03-06z.
VSBYS could briefly drop to MVFR/IFR levels in any of the showers.
Otherwise, expect prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals through
the 00z TAF period. BKN CIGS at 6-9k feet will scatter out later
tonight before skies become mostly clear by Tue AM. Winds shift to
the NNW tonight behind the cold front and then to the NNE on Tue
(remaining gusty to ~20 kt at the coast). VFR/mostly sunny Tue.

OUTLOOK... VFR conditions continue late Tue through Wed as high
pressure is slow to move east. A NW flow pattern sets up by the end
of the week. This may lead to sct convection moving NW-SE across the
area starting late Wed night and Thu.

&&

.MARINE...

&&

.CLIMATE...
* Records for Today/Mon 5/20:

* Salisbury so far has a new record high min today if this
  value stands through midnight LST (1am EDT).

* Site       Record High Record High Min

* Richmond:  96 (1934)    71 (2018) (actual low 69)
* Norfolk:   98 (1996)    73 (1996) (actual low 71)
* Salisbury: 98 (1911)    70 (2018) *(actual low 71)
* Eliz City: 98 (1996)    73 (2018) (actual low 71)


* Avg Date of 1st 90F (1981-2010 Climatology):

* Site       Avg        2019 Value

* Richmond:  May 13th   (Sun 5/19)
* Norfolk:   May 16th   (Sun 5/19)
* Salisbury: May 27th   (none so far)
* Eliz City: May 18th   (Sat 5/18)

* Number of Days of 90F+ in May:

* Site       Avg       Most

* Richmond:   2 days   11 days (1962)
* Norfolk:    2 days   13 days (1880)
* Salisbury:  1 day     7 days (1991)
* Eliz City:  2 days    9 days (1944 & 1941)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ 88D down UFN. Apparent comms/RDA modem problem. Techs
notified.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...JDM/RHR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...