National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 110836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
436 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the area today. A weak trough crosses
the region tonight. High pressure builds north of the region
Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure tracks across the
southeast states. High pressure builds over the area Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

Pcpn INVOF NE NC earlier has dissipated. A mid level s/w will be
crossing the region today w/ VRB clouds-partly cloudy conditions
expected. Another cool day w/ NNE winds blo 10 kt becoming VRB.
Highs in the u60s-l70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

A weak secondary sfc boundary and trough aloft swings through
the region tonight resulting in mostly cloudy conditions and only
a SLGT chc for SHRAs...mainly N and E. Winds become NNW and gusty
(esp at the coast) after midnight. Lows in the 40s...except around
50F along the coast in SE VA-NE NC.

Moderate Canadian hi pres begins to build into the region from
the NNW Wed while lo pres and its associated widespread
cloudiness and rain track through the SE CONUS states. Excepting
considerable cloudiness over much of the local area Wed and have
kept a chc (20-30%) for rain mainly along-S of the VA-NC border.
There will be a trend toward clearing from the NNW late. Cool
again w/ NNE winds and highs from the m60s N to the u50s-l60s S.

Hi pres will extend from the Great Lakes to the mid-Atlantic
region Wed night-Wed...resulting in cool/dry wx. Lows in the
l-m40s...u40s-around 50F right along the coast. Mainly sunny Thu
w/ highs from the m60s to around 70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Low rain chances and slowly moderating temperatures expected
for the extended forecast period. A weakening area of low
pressure lifts NE region across the region Thursday night into
Friday, but the current NBM only has slight chc PoPs, and there
was no convincing reason to stray from this. Temperatures
slowly moderate through the extended period, generally going up
a degree or two each day. Friday`s highs start out in the upper
60s to lower 70s and by the time we reach next Sunday and Monday,
highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures start
out in the mid to upper 40s Thursday night with lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s by the weekend, and then lower to mid 50s
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

Pcpn INVOF NE NC has dissipated...otw VRB VFR conditions (any
CIGS aoa 5-7kft). Mid level s/w tracks across the FA today
keeping VRB VFR conditions (and poss periods of CIGS aoa 5-7
kft) generally through early/mid afternoon. NNE winds mainly blo
10 kt becoming VRB late. A secondary boundary sinks S across the
FA tonight w/ lo prob for SHRAs...esp at SBY. Lo pres tracks E
across the SE CONUS states Wed as sfc hi pres is slow to move SE
from the Midwest. Widespread mainly VFR CIGS expected into Wed
afternoon (w/ exception to SBY) and there will be a lo prob for
light rain INVOF ECG. Hi pres builds across the local area Thu. A
weak upper level trough will bring a SLGT chc of SHRAS Fri to
be followed by dry conditions Sat. Overall...VFR conditions are
expected Wed night-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...

Weak area of high pressure is building into the area today.
Northerly winds will be diminishing this morning and become NE
5-10 kt this afternoon. Waves in the bay will be 1-2 ft and seas
2-3 ft.

Cold front will approach the area from the north as high
pressure slides off the coast this evening. Tuesday evening, winds
will briefly turn southerly and increase 10-15 kt north of the
mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.

Behind the cold front, winds quickly turn northerly overnight
Tuesday night as high pressure builds into the region and
strengthens. Winds will likely reach SCA levels for the
Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and NC coastal
ocean waters.

Waves in the bay may get a little higher during
this surge (2-4 ft) late Tuesday night into early Wednesday,
subsiding to 1-2 ft during the afternoon and early evening on
Wednesday. Seas will be 2-4 ft Tuesday and 3-4 ft Wednesday,
except potentially up to 5 ft in the NC waters early Wed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...CP/LKB