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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
638 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow in advance of a slow moving cold front approaching
from the west will keep a moist and humid air mass in place
through Saturday. A cold front is then expected to sweep across
the region Saturday night, bringing cooler and drier air to the
region Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 640 AM EDT Friday...

A broad upper trough will advance eastward today through the
Midwest and TN Valley, with the trough axis reaching the
Appalachians by tonight. Meanwhile, the local area will remain
on the western periphery of Bermuda high pressure with deep
layer southerly flow continuing to funnel sub-tropical moisture
northward from the GOMEX and western Caribbean. A quick look at
the current radar composite doesn`t show much early this
morning outside of sct showers over central/eastern NC. Hi-res
guidance does show shwr activity continuing to increase in
coverage for the next few hours, and so will show increasing
PoPs (30-40%) for much of the area this morning. Shower (isold
tstm) coverage should favor areas along and east of the I-95
corridor thru 18z while PoPs lower across the Piedmont. Still no
higher than 30-50% PoPs east thru 18z for scattered showers
(isold thunder) with slight chc PoPs over the Piedmont. After
18z, we should start to see another batch of shwrs/tstms get
going to our west in advance of the advancing trough with decent
height falls and increasing deep layer shear. Additionally,
scattered shwrs and a few tstms should be ongoing across far
southern/SE VA into NE NC. Low level moisture will continue to
be anomalously high today which will allow for the development
of moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) during the
afternoon. SPC does have the western 2/3rds of our area in a
marginal risk of svr wx today, but judging by the latest CAMS
(and especially the NAMnest) the best chance of strong/svr
storms locally may not come until late this afternoon into this
evening as a line of convection rolls in from the west.
Confidence in that occuring is low. Any stronger storms that are
able to develop this afternoon will be capable of heavy rain
and localized down burst winds, but also isolated instances of
large hail will be possible given the marginally cooler temps
aloft and stronger shear. Temperatures warm into the low and mid
80s by the afternoon (except mid 70s MD beaches). Any lingering
shwrs/tstms this evening will shift to the coast after 06z
while dissipating. Continued warm and muggy tonight with lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

An upper trough pivots across the local area on Saturday in
advance of an approaching cold front that is expected to sweep
through the area Saturday night and finally bring some
cooler/drier air to the area for Sunday. In advance of the cold
front, looking for additional scattered showers and tstms to
occur. Coverage will favor sern areas prior to 18z Sat, then
hi-res guidance shows a broken line of convection potentially
developing around the I-95 corridor in the afternoon and
advancing SE into the early evening. Potential is there for some
strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon across SE VA/NE NC given
strong shear in place with the upper trough, cooling aloft and
MLCAPE values reaching 1500 j/kg. SPC has areas from around RIC
on S & E in a marginal risk on Saturday. After the storms move
out Sat evening with the cold front, we clear/dry out heading
into Sunday. Highs Sat will again be able to warm into the low-
mid 80s. Lows Sat night fall into the mid-upr 50s NW to low-mid
60s SE. Highs Sunday will reach the low to mid 70s with much
lower humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...

Dry and comfortable weather continues into early next week with high
pressure overhead on Monday. High temps warm into the low 70s with
overnight lows falling into the upper 40s and low 50s Monday night.
High pressure exits offshore on Tuesday, allowing winds to veer to
the southwest. Continued dry through the afternoon and evening with
high temps warming into the mid 70s.

Model guidance diverges into the mid week period with several tough
to time shortwave troughs noted in the mean NW flow aloft. Will show
temps increasing back into the low 80s with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday into the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 640 AM EDT Friday...

S winds will continue through the 12Z/Fri TAF period, with some
gusts around 20 kt during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Scattered shwrs and a few afternoon/evening tstms are expected
today. It will be hard to time when any one location will
receive a shwr/tstm today, so just have VCSH during the time
frames this would be most likely. MVFR CIGS will impact
RIC/SBY/PHF thru 13z before improving to VFR by mid-late
morning.

OUTLOOK...Bouts of shwrs/tstms will continue tonight through
Sat evening, as a cold front approaches and pushes across the
area from the west. Becoming drier Sat night and Sun, as the
front pushes out to sea and high pressure begins to build in
from the NW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

S winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts ovr the cstl waters today.
Seas so far have remained blo 5 ft. Data continues to show some
5 ft seas out near 20 nm across the nrn cstl wtrs. Given the
current trends, dropped the SCA over the srn cstl waters but
kept the SCA for 5 ft seas out nr 20 nm ovr the nrn cstl waters
thru tonite.

A cold front crosses the waters late Sat with a wind shift to the
NNW behind it. Latest data suggests a svrl hr CAA surge down the
Ches Bay arnd 12Z Sun.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MPR