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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061129
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
729 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front moves approaches from the north today, and
pushes through the region tonight. The front stalls across North
Carolina through Wednesday night, with showers possible as an
upper level disturbance passes across the region. The upper low
will bring isolated showers and storms to the region Thursday
and Friday, before high pressure returns with dry weather and a
warming trend for the upcoming weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 715 AM Tuesday...

Latest analysis continues to show weak sfc high pressure across
the SE CONUS, with a weak sfc trough pushing through the CWA.
Aloft, the flow is NW w/ weak shortwave energy moving through,
leading to a small area of SCT- BKN clouds from south central VA
into NE NC. Haze from Canadian wildfires has spread across the
region as well. Temperatures are on the cool side (but not
nearly as cool as 24 hrs ago). Early morning lows mainly ranging
through the 50s, with upper 50s/around 60F at the coast.


Generally mostly sunny this morning (other than HZ), with some
increase in cumulus this aftn. Dry low levels and the cool
airmass aloft will lead to deep mixing with cumulus high based,
from 7-10k ft. The next shortwave aloft is progged to rotate
around the base of the strong upper low. Most of this energy
will be N of the local area until very late aftn or this
evening. As such, PoPs will remain 10% or less today, with the
exception of the MD eastern shore after ~21Z where an isolated
showers/tstm could drift in from PA/DE. There is also some
instability noted across NE NC where dew pts will be slightly
higher (50s as opposed to 40s), and some of the CAMs are showing
some spotty aftn showers here as well. Decided to keep this out
of the forecast for now, keeping it just S of the Albemarle
sound. Some smoke from Canadian wildfires is likely across the
ern shore by this aftn (enough to reduce sfc VSBYs to 5-6SM. By
this evening, the trough aloft is expected to swing through the
mid- Atlantic region, pushing a weak/mainly dry cold front
across the local area. Highs today will range from 82-87 across
most of the area (almost as warm at the coast as inland due to
the WNW low level flow). Partly cloudy tonight w/ lows in the
mid 50s N to the u50s-l60s S and SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

On Wed...w/ the front stalled...awaiting another push from the
amplifying trough over the NE...finally some moisture from the
WNW swings across the mountains. Trough aloft...daytime heating
and the stalled front will likely be enough for SCT SHRAs (tstms
far srn VA/NC). Highest PoPs for rain (increasing to 30-50%
over interior srn VA-NE NC) by the afternoon. Highs in the
u70s-around 80F. The best chc for rain looks to be Wed evening
into early Thu across far southern VA and NE NC where PoPs have
been raised to 60%, tapered to low chc central VA, and generally
dry over the far N.

The chance for rain extends through Wed night then shifts to
off the coast early Thu once the upper trough axis swings across
the FA. Lows Wed night in the l-m50s inland...m-u50s at the
coast. Clearing/becoming mostly sunny Thu w/ highs in the
m-u70s. By late aftn, isolated showers/tstms (PoPs ~20%) will be
possible as yet another shortwave moves in from the W/NW. Dry
Thu night w/ lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Tuesday...

One last shortwave is progged to push across the region on Fri,
with the upper trough finally shifting off the coast by Fri
night. Quite dry in the low levels, but w/ steep low-mid level
lapse rates Fri, still could see isolated aftn showers/tstms
(mainly eastern sections of the FA). Highs Fri 75-80F. The upper
trough will be centered from Atlantic Canada to Ontario Sat,
allowing for increasing heights Sat, and even a weak upper
ridge into the local area by Sunday in advance of the next
system. Expect warmer temperatures for the weekend, with highs
Sat mainly in the low-mid 80s, and in the mid/upper 80s
(possibly ~90F) for Sunday depending on timing w/ the next
system from the W. Dry Sat through midday Sunday, then will
continue w/ trend of increased PoPs late Sun (initially WNW
locations) through Sun night/Mon everywhere (including mention
of tstms). Mon will have highs upper 70s/around 80F NW to the
lower 80s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 715 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals this evening will persist
through the 12z/6 TAF forecast period.There are still some SCT-
BKN clouds across south central VA and NE NC but any CIGs are 6k
ft or higher. Ahead of an approaching cold front today,
westerly winds will increase to ~10kt with gusts to 15-20kt
later this aftn w/ mainly SCT cu with high bases of 7-10k ft.
Some smoke (from distant Canadian wildfires) may reduce VSBYs
to ~6SM at SBY this aftn. This could occur at the other
terminals as well, but the chc is lower.

Outlook: VFR conditions generally to start Wed. The cold front
will stall across NC on Wed, with the next bit of upper level
energy expected to produce at least SCT showers Wed aftn/Wed
night (primarily) over southern VA and NE NC. Mainly VFR
conditions then persist Thu-Fri except for isolated aftn
showers/tstms. Dry/VFR Sat before another front approaches by
late in the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure remains centered off the SE coast today. Winds early
this morning were generally W 8-15 kt. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt
later this morning, becoming S/SSE 10 kt late this afternoon, then
becoming SW 10-15 kt this evening. A cold front pushes S across the
local waters this evening into tonight with winds likely remaining
sub-SCA (N 10-15 kt). N winds diminish to 5-10 kt Wed morning,
becoming SE 10 kt late Wed afternoon before becoming S 10-15 kt Wed
evening. High pressure gradually builds in from the Great Lakes from
mid-late week, centering over the Carolinas Sat with winds 5-15 kt.
High pressure moves offshore Sat night. A warm front lifts N late
Sun into early Mon with a cold front pushing through from the W Mon.
S winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt late Sun afternoon
through Sun night with SCAs possible. Winds become SW/W 10-15 kt Mon
night behind the cold front.

Waves and seas remain 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively through Wed
night, subsiding to 1 foot and 2 ft Thurs. Waves and seas build Sun
with 2-3 ft waves and 4-5 ft seas possible from late Sun afternoon
into early Mon morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 640 AM EDT Tuesday...

Tides underperformed this morning and therefore have canceled
the Coastal Flood Advisory. This afternoon`s high tide is
expected to remain below flood stage for all sites with a few
sites (Bishops Head and Crisfield) potentially reaching action
to low- end minor flood stage again tonight and Wed night.

The rip current risk today is moderate for the southern beaches
due to lingering 8 second periods, 3 ft breaking waves, and an
onshore component to the winds this afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...ALB/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...