Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 222319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
719 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

...Mild start to the week...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Really stagnant weather pattern found
across the Great Lakes as mature upper level split flow regime keeps
all active weather removed well to our south and north. Elongated
surface high pressure centered across the region only further
reinforcing the dry conditions. Phenomenally dry low levels
continue, with current dewpoints dropping back into the teens once
again. That dry environment and mostly sunny skies has resulted in
another mild day, this despite plenty of lingering snow cover (for
areas north of M-72 at least), with temperatures reaching well into
the 50s, and even a few spots in the lower 60s! Expect to see a few
areas top 60 degrees within the next hour or two. Per the northern
Michigan springtime usual, lake breezes have developed, definitely
halting the warming trend near the big waters.

Simply not much change to start the new week as split flow upper
level flow regime continues. Center of surface high does slip
further east with time, but overhead ridge axis remains right
through Monday evening.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature and relative
humidity trends.

Details: Clear/sunny skies will only be interrupted at times by a
few passing high clouds through Monday. Airmass continues to
steadily modify, so despite those very dry conditions and another
round of calm winds tonight, do not believe we will be quite as cold
tonight as this past one. Still looking at overnight temperatures
dropping below freezing for interior areas, with our typical colder
locations once again dipping into the 20s (these readings remain a
few degrees below normal). Gonna feel downright balmy on Monday as
airmass modification reaches maturity. Milder start to the day and
abundant sunshine will send temperatures across interior northern
lower Michigan well into the 60s, with readings near the big waters
and across eastern upper Michigan running a few degrees cooler. Very
dry low levels becoming an increasing concern, especially in the
snow-free areas south of M-72. Guidance simply remains much too
moist, even with the development of light southeast flow by Monday
afternoon. Will once again slice several degrees of guidance
dewpoints, allowing afternoon readings to drop well into the 20s, if
not teens for some areas. This will result in critical relative
humidity values to be reached once again away from the immediate
shoreline areas of the Great Lakes. Light winds will negate much
fire weather concerns, but will definitely continue to address these
dry conditions in our latest fire weather forecast products.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

...Mild Temperatures Tuesday, Chance of Showers Tuesday...

Primary Forecast Concern...None.

High pressure pushes off to our east Monday night. Meanwhile, a
nearly vertically stacked low pressure system moving by to our south
will bring a chance for a few rain showers Tuesday afternoon
into early Tuesday night (mainly across northern lower). In
addition, an upper level trough and associated surface cold front
will move through bringing cooler temperatures in for Wednesday.
Highs Tuesday in the middle 50s to around 60. Highs Wednesday in the
middle 40s to lower 50s. Lows Monday and Tuesday nights in the 30s
to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Fairly quiet period of weather, but with chances of rain/snow
showers at times. Extended models agree with high pressure and dry
air mainly dominating northern Michigan`s weather, but with short
waves and accompanying moisture bringing chances of precipitation at
times. Too far out to forecast exact timing, but expect only very
minor QPF in any showers that do develop. Skies will be partly
cloudy for the majority of the time with highs mainly in the 50s
with some locales reaching into the low 60s over northern lower,
while lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions expected to continue with just some high cirrus
expected. Light winds continue as well, with local lake breezes
expected Monday afternoon.


Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Very tranquil conditions expected to continue on the Great
Lakes right through Tuesday. Winds and waves will be well below
headline criteria, with dry weather prevailing through at least
Monday night. Afternoon lake breezes expected, forcing winds to turn




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