715
FXUS63 KAPX 231015
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
615 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and cloudy condtions with rain showers at times for this
holiday weekend

- Mild temperatures linger through early next week

- Rain chances return mid week next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Current surface observations depict current temperatures in the 40s
over northern MI this morning with breezy northwest winds. Satellite
shows cloud cover diminishing over northern lower but increasing
over eastern upper with some light showers falling over the SOO. A
broad area of two upper level lows will persist over the great lakes
region today. Skies will be mostly cloudy today with breezy
northwest winds and low end gusts up to 25 mph. Chances for rain
showers will be over most locations in northern MI this afternoon.
Cloud cover and cooler air will lead to high temperatures only
reaching into the 40s. The low will shift to the NE CONUS and could
let some drier air move over the central Lk MI coast and adjacent
areas tonight. Light winds and clearing skies pose chances for frost
formation over this area, however the coverage should remain
local.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

As the jet stream remains over the central CONUS, light flow aloft
will allow for a shortwave extending from the closed low to park
over the upper penisula Saturday. Clouds and rain showers will be
seen over the eastern U.P. for most of Saturday. Skies will try to
scatter out over northern lower, which will allow some locations to
warm into the 60s. This feature will move south over northern lower
Sunday morning, but there is still some uncertainty on timing. If it
moves in early Sunday, there will be more moisture in the lower
levels and frost concerns will be curbed. If it moves in later
Sunday, the drier air and clear skies over parts of central MI could
see areas of frost develop.

Light flow and a gradual clearing trend Monday and Tuesday with
temperatures warming back up into the mid to high 60s areawide. Rain
chances return near the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

MVFR to IFR producing low clouds and vis restricting
mist/drizzle/light showers will continue to expand south across
the area today. Slow improvement expected as we head through
later tonight. Northwest winds will be touch gusty today,
with winds subsiding tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345-347.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MSB