Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 160332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1132 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

Issued at 1041 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

Dry low level environment (H7 to surface on local 00z sounding)
remains stubborn to yield, with just a few light
showers/sprinkles reaching the surface in our southwest counties.
Moisture advection/dynamics remain limited tonight, suggesting any
showers that reach the surface will be scattered and very
light....with most areas receiving very little, if any.
Definitely a much milder night than the last several, with low
temperatures ranging through the 40s.


.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

...Increasing chances of showers thru tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Complex area of low pressure continues
to take shape over the Northern and Central Plains. Associated warm
front is holding from the Central Plains thru Mid Mississippi
Valley. Deep moisture surging northward ahead of this system along
with weak instability continue to generate a broken line of mainly
showers from Oklahoma thru Missouri and Illinois into Wisconsin.
Latest KAPX base ref is still showing evidence of increasing mid
level moisture across our CWA...but nothing has reached the ground
as of yet. Some significant discrepancies amoung the near term
models noted regarding POPs thru tonight. Latest NAM12 suggests an
area of showers producing a "respectable" amount of precip (both
coverage and intensity) marching across our CWA late this evening
thru Sunday morning...while the RAP is much more conservative with
both POPs and QPF. RAP also targets mainly our southern CWA for best
chances of rain. RAP seems to be a more reasonable solution given
our persistently dry low level airmass in place...which will likely
take some time to moisten for precip to actually reach the ground.

In leaning toward the RAP...will keep POPs firmly within the chance
category thru tonight...slowly marching increasing POPs from SW to
NE this evening. Eastern Upper Michigan should stay mainly dry thru
tonight...but partly to mostly cloudy. Lack of sufficient
instability will certainly preclude any chances of thunder thru
tonight. With increasing clouds combined with southerly low level
flow/WAA...temps will be noticeably more mild tonight. Overnight
lows will only cool into the mid to upper 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

Pattern Synopsis:

A closed low will dip down into Baja California while ridging in the
main upper-level flow progresses across southern Canada on Sunday. A
subtle shortwave will be moving overhead Sunday/Sunday night with
only a weak associated surface response at best. Surface high
pressure is expected to dominate most of the CONUS east of the
Mississippi River through Monday.


Scattered showers are expected to be ongoing across northern
Michigan Sunday morning, especially across southern portions of the
CWA with decreasing confidence with northward extent towards the
bridge. Off-and-on rain chances will continue through the afternoon
with the best chances coming across the southern half of the CWA.
While southerly flow will continue to advect moisture into the Great
Lakes, rather meager forcing should limit precip intensity and
coverage. Additional totals of 0.10" or less are expected.
Otherwise, already pleasant temperatures will continue to warm
heading into early next week. Highs in the upper 60s on Sunday may
climb into the mid/upper 70s on Monday underneath mostly sunny skies
to give northern Michigan a real taste of summer. Overnight lows are
expected to be in the mid 40s for most both nights, remaining well
outside of the frost/freeze range.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now

Amplified ridging is expected to encompass most of the eastern CONUS
throughout the period while embedded waves rotate around the
backside of the ridge over the Great Lakes at times during the week.
At the surface, high pressure should center itself off the Mid-
Atlantic coast while upper-level flow over the Rockies produces
pressure falls out west. Enhanced southerly flow between these two
features will help advect warm, moist air northward well into the
Great Lakes by the second half of the week. While details regarding
any potential systems tracking in the vicinity of the Great Lakes
remain uncertain, instability provided by this airmass looks to at
least bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the
period. Summer-like highs in the upper 70s and even low 80s are
possible throughout the week, which would be around 10 degrees above
normal heading into the second half of May.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1130 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

High and mid level clouds will continue to slowly thicken and
lower tonight, perhaps evening bringing a period of MVFR cigs to
both KMBL and KTVC this morning. Light showers possible, but not
expecting and vis restrictions. Cigs should begin to increase
later this morning and afternoon as mixing depth increases. Light
winds through the period.


Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Monday. Chances
of showers will increase tonight and will continue into Sunday as
moisture increases ahead of low pressure developing over the




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