Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 030945
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
545 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: A couple of isolated thunderstorms
possible this afternoon across far northwest lower Michigan. Near
Red Flag criteria today.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level ridging continues to
retrograde westward across the nation`s midsection through the near-
term forecast period. Embedded ridge axis expected to be running
from the Arklatex region northward through the northern Plains/upper
MS Valley into Manitoba and Ontario. A subtle mid-level shortwave
will traverse the eastern flank of that ridge axis, trekking across
northern Michigan this morning/midday. Stagnant surface pattern
remains in place with high pressure sagging in overhead from the
northeast along with a weak backdoor cold front washing out overhead
by early this morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Low chances for isolated showers/storms.
Near Red Flag Warning criteria in spots.

Latest near-term trends suggest that an axis of greater low-level
moisture will continue to slide across northern Michigan in
predominant east-northeasterly flow. This should aid in boosting
surface dew points, primarily across far northwest lower, to the
upper 50s to near 60 F by mid-morning through early this afternoon.
Combined that with daytime heating and a window exists with upwards
of 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE before low-level moisture exits west by late
this afternoon. Aforementioned subtle mid-level wave will also be
traversing the area this morning...although timing isn`t really
optimal to support convective development. That said, there`s still
enough support in recent hi-res/HREF guidance to support isolated to
scattered showers and storms this afternoon (with slight chance to
low chance PoPs mainly near TVC and points south and west) with
initiation likely aided by low-level convergence along inland
penetrating lake breezes. Those lake breezes are expected to be less
prominent than the last few days given better maintenance of east-
northeast flow mentioned above. Weak deep layer shear (< 15 kts)
will most certainly limit any convective organization, but prominent
inverted-V low-levels depicted in guidance derived soundings will
contribute to DCAPE near 600-700 J/kg, perhaps supporting the
possibility of locally strong outflow gusts if any deeper
convection is able to develop.

High temperatures today largely in the mid-upper 80s, although
remaining cooler near the Lake Huron shoreline with temps largely
topping out in the 70s (even some upper 60s along the immediate
shoreline).

Given those very warm temperatures continuing, somewhat breezy east-
northeast winds and low-level moisture fairly limited to northwest
lower, do think there`s a window where parts of north-central and
northeast lower flirt with Red Flag criteria this afternoon. Whether
strict criteria is met or not, fire danger will remain very high to
extreme area-wide.

Partly to mostly clear skies expected tonight with just some passing
high clouds at times. Lows generally spanning the 50s, but a few of
the cooler spots falling into the mid-upper 40s not out of the
question.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal, aside from continued fire
weather concerns.

Pattern Forecast: Fairly unusual upper-level pattern across the
CONUS to wrap up the weekend into early next week as upper-level
ridging/"heat dome" continues to retrograde west and a strengthening
upper trough pinwheels from Newfoundland/Quebec into New England.
Northern Michigan will lie sandwiched between these two features
will gradually cooling temperatures, but remaining fairly dry with
little in the way of meaningful precipitation chances.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Temperature trends. Low precip chances
Sunday night - early Monday.

Little in the way of sensible weather is expected to wrap up the
weekend across northern Michigan with high temperatures continuing
to span the low-mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. East-northeast
winds continue...aiding to keep the sunrise side several degrees
cooler. Another dry day with relative humidity values progged to
fall to near or below 20 percent across inland northern lower. Fire
danger most certainly will remain very high to extreme, despite
likely falling just short of Red Flag wind criteria.

Primary focus then transitions to a cold front expected to cross
north to south Sunday night into early Monday. Limited moisture
along/ahead of this boundary will support little more than isolated
showers as it stands now. Main story from that boundary will be
noticeably cooler temperatures for Monday as highs largely span the
70s across the Northwoods.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Large scale troughing centered over Maine/New Brunswick will
continue to dig toward the Great lakes region this Tuesday through
Friday. While this pattern would normally bring more active weather,
a lack of moisture across the Great Lakes will keep primarily dry
conditions through the entire forecast period. The biggest change
when compared to the last several days will be the return of
cooler/more seasonable air plunging into the CWA. The coldest night
looks to be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with a few areas
across the CWA potentially seeing a low in the mid-upper 30s, and
potentially some late season patchy frost. Temperatures for the rest
of the work week will remain around climatological normal for early
June in northern Michigan as the aformentioned trough becomes cut
off and results in weak cyclonic flow over the northeastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 545 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

VFR through the TAF period with just some passing mid-high cloud
this morning. High based cu development expected this
afternoon...primarily at TVC/MBL, which also coincides with low
chances for isolated diurnally driven pop-up showers and storms.
Confidence in development and coverage far too low to include
anything more than VCTS at this time. East-northeast winds today
with afternoon lake breeze expected across northwest lower
Michigan.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

East-northeast winds are expected to prevail this weekend, and while
somewhat breezy at times, latest trends support winds/waves
remaining just shy of Small Craft Advisory criteria. Sub-advisory
criteria continues into early next week as winds turn northerly
behind a moisture starved cold front that crosses northern MI Sunday
night.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJG
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MJG
MARINE...MJG


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