Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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218
FXUS63 KAPX 112344
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
644 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind Advisory issued for the eastern U.P. and the lakeshore
  counties of northwest lower Michigan from 11am today through
  7pm this evening owing to potential of 45mph+ gusts.

- Showers, mixing with snow at times, will taper quickly this
  evening.

- A system passing through midweek brings a return of rain
  chances and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Impressive upper level cyclone currently centered just to the east
of Lake Superior will continue to be the main driver of our weather
across the region. A sharp cold front is currently traversing the
region, stretching from roughly PZQ to HTL and driving quite the
surge of colder air into the region. In the wake of this front,
momentum transfer is set to be quite impressive as a 925mb flow
maximum in the order of 40-45kts pivots overhead. Result will be
quite the breeze accompanying any lingering lake induced shower
activity. In addition, the colder air will allow for some mixing to
snow to transpire, with some reports of snowflakes mixing in across
northwest lower Michigan, and recently, some snowflakes were
observed at the APX office. Welcome to November, everyone!

This system will be forced eastward by an intruding high pressure
over the Dakotas, resulting in a pronounced increase in subsidence,
and thus suppressing much of the shower activity through the evening
hours, and eroding moisture from the boundary layer with time
through the evening. Result will be calming northerly flow and
clearing skies, and a chilly night. High pressure remains in control
for Tuesday, with markedly lighter winds (generally less than 10mph)
out of the east to northeast.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Windy Conditions through the Afternoon: Wind Advisory remains out
for the eastern Yoop and the lakeshore counties of northwest lower
through 00z/7pm this evening as the potent flow of 925mb winds
barrels through the region. There have already been some 50mph+
gusts across Leelanau and Benzie counties, and this trend is
expected to continue, with perhaps some additional 45 to 50+ mph
gusts in the advisory area. Elsewhere, it`s still going to be
breezy, but would not be overly surprised to see some spots snag
some 40mph+ gusts through the evening hours. Winds will taper quite
considerably after 00z, potentially even turning calm well after
midnight as the influences of high pressure force the pinched
pressure gradient off to our east.

Precipitation Chances: Aforementioned continuity of showers, with
snow mixing in away from the big lakes becoming more frequent with
time this evening as temps fall into the 30s. Could see a final
flare up of showers as a final trough axis clears the area this
evening; however, not anticipating much in the way of accumulation
(if any) as moisture with this system remains quite limited despite
the surge of sharply colder air into the region. Activity will taper
very quickly this evening as subsidence and drier air intrusions
hamper lake convection processes, thus leading to a clearing and
much more calm night across the region, with lows bottoming out in
the 20s before a much sunnier day arrives Tuesday with highs in the
40s to near 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

Forecast Pattern: A calm night late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning as high pressure near the surface continues to
dominate with upper level ridging aloft. These two features
continue to drift eastward as an upper trough and surface low
approach the Great Lakes region from the central plains through the
day Wednesday. Breezy southeast to south winds will be seen
Wednesday, which will allow temperatures to warm and more moisture
to work its way back into the state. Clouds will start to fill the
sky late Wednesday as rain chances spread out overnight into
Thursday. Low topped convection will lead to scattered rain chances
Thursday. Winds shift northerly Friday and bring in surface high
pressure and drier air for the weekend.

Forecast Concerns: The next system coming across the state mid week
will likely bring some breezy winds and more chances for
precipitation. Winds, at this time, do not seem to be as gusty but
more breezy - stronger in the warmer sector vs behind the frontal
passage. The track of the surface low (which most ensembles agree
with its passage to our south) is also such that the surface winds
will back to the northeast, then north. So stronger confidence with
breezy southwest winds ahead of a frontal boundary Wednesday. Most
of the precipitation should remain rain as the upper trough will
help to bring the warm sector up into Ontario CA. 850mb temps flirt
with freezing near the end of Thursday as north winds start to take
over, however an upper ridge and surface low up stream over the
northern Plains will be advecting warm and moist air over MN. That
air will likely move in for the weekend, keeping temperatures mild
for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

Low-end MVFR or brief IFR conditions (mainly CIGs) expected for
the first few hours of the 00Z TAF valid time across the
northern Michigan terminals. However, conditions will improve to
VFR tonight, with these conditions expected to persist for the
remainder of the period once they develop. Gusty northerly winds
will taper off this evening, with light/variable winds expected
for most of Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016-017-020-
     021-025-026-031-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ345-346.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ347>349.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...PBB