202
FXUS63 KAPX 262302
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
702 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmth and humidity return later this weekend into next week.

- Shower and storm chances return beginning Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Pattern/synopsis: High pressure, now over the Thumb, will drift
east toward Lk Ontario thru Saturday. A 500mb ridge axis will be
directly overhead Sat afternoon.

Forecast: Light to calm winds tonight, will allow for some fog
again tonight in fog-prone locales. A bit of a s to sw breeze
develops into Sat afternoon as the high shifts east. Some haze/
smoke aloft will persist. Otherwise, there is nothing going on,
with a few wisps of cirrus crossing the sky.

Slow warming trend continues. Lows tonight mostly in the 50s.
Highs Saturday low 80s eastern UP, lots of mid 80s in northern
lower MI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Quasi-omega midlevel pattern continues to keep dry conditions
across the Central US. Midlevel ridging over the northern plains
will continue this quiet weather pattern through the weekend.
Upstream troughing currently over the western Canadian
Providences will eventually make its way to the Great Lakes
Region and return more active weather to the CWA.

The aformentioned midlevel ridge will have its axis centered over
the CWA at the start of the forcast period. At the same time,
upstream troughing transitions across the rockies and makes its way
to southern Hudson Bay along with devleoping a moderate jet core on
the right side of the trough (around 100 kts). Embedded midlevel
shortwaves will ride across this area of strong atmospheric flow
starting as soon as this Monday through the remainder of the long
term period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

A wetter weather pattern returns to the Great Lakes region next
week. Chances of showers and storms continue at times for the
majority of the long term period: Aformentioned shortwave
disturbances paired with low level moisture advecting northward
will provide enough energy to produce convection at times this
week. Earliest chance of precip begins this Monday as diurnal
heating processes increase afternoon instabilty. While most
areas can expect to remain dry, areas of northern lower and
eastern upper could see pop up showers and storms. Ensemble
guidance is showing evidence of a boundary to drag across the
CWA Monday night into Tuesday bringing the best potential of
more widespread showers to region. Conditions look to remain dry
on Wednesday, but dewpoints remain in the 60s for the remainder
of the week mixed with height disturbances passing over the
region. POPs will remain low, but the pattern of typical
Northern Michigan afternoon showers can be expected this
Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures expected to build next week well above normal:
Midlevel shortwave ridging is expected to build next week
allowing for temperatures to reach the upper 80s and low 90s for
most locations across the CWA next week. Warmest days are
expected to be Tuesday through Thursday. No locations appear to
be at risk of breaking record highs, but dew points in the
upper 60s will keep overnight lows above climatological normal
and will not aid the relief of daytime highs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

High pressure center will drift just east of Michigan thru
Saturday night. Aside from some early morning patchy fog/IFR
vsbys...VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites for the
next 24 hours. Light/calm winds tonight will become SW at around
10 kts on Saturday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MLR