Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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218 FXUS63 KAPX 112344 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 644 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind Advisory issued for the eastern U.P. and the lakeshore counties of northwest lower Michigan from 11am today through 7pm this evening owing to potential of 45mph+ gusts. - Showers, mixing with snow at times, will taper quickly this evening. - A system passing through midweek brings a return of rain chances and gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 212 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Impressive upper level cyclone currently centered just to the east of Lake Superior will continue to be the main driver of our weather across the region. A sharp cold front is currently traversing the region, stretching from roughly PZQ to HTL and driving quite the surge of colder air into the region. In the wake of this front, momentum transfer is set to be quite impressive as a 925mb flow maximum in the order of 40-45kts pivots overhead. Result will be quite the breeze accompanying any lingering lake induced shower activity. In addition, the colder air will allow for some mixing to snow to transpire, with some reports of snowflakes mixing in across northwest lower Michigan, and recently, some snowflakes were observed at the APX office. Welcome to November, everyone! This system will be forced eastward by an intruding high pressure over the Dakotas, resulting in a pronounced increase in subsidence, and thus suppressing much of the shower activity through the evening hours, and eroding moisture from the boundary layer with time through the evening. Result will be calming northerly flow and clearing skies, and a chilly night. High pressure remains in control for Tuesday, with markedly lighter winds (generally less than 10mph) out of the east to northeast. Primary Forecast Concerns: Windy Conditions through the Afternoon: Wind Advisory remains out for the eastern Yoop and the lakeshore counties of northwest lower through 00z/7pm this evening as the potent flow of 925mb winds barrels through the region. There have already been some 50mph+ gusts across Leelanau and Benzie counties, and this trend is expected to continue, with perhaps some additional 45 to 50+ mph gusts in the advisory area. Elsewhere, it`s still going to be breezy, but would not be overly surprised to see some spots snag some 40mph+ gusts through the evening hours. Winds will taper quite considerably after 00z, potentially even turning calm well after midnight as the influences of high pressure force the pinched pressure gradient off to our east. Precipitation Chances: Aforementioned continuity of showers, with snow mixing in away from the big lakes becoming more frequent with time this evening as temps fall into the 30s. Could see a final flare up of showers as a final trough axis clears the area this evening; however, not anticipating much in the way of accumulation (if any) as moisture with this system remains quite limited despite the surge of sharply colder air into the region. Activity will taper very quickly this evening as subsidence and drier air intrusions hamper lake convection processes, thus leading to a clearing and much more calm night across the region, with lows bottoming out in the 20s before a much sunnier day arrives Tuesday with highs in the 40s to near 50. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 212 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 Forecast Pattern: A calm night late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as high pressure near the surface continues to dominate with upper level ridging aloft. These two features continue to drift eastward as an upper trough and surface low approach the Great Lakes region from the central plains through the day Wednesday. Breezy southeast to south winds will be seen Wednesday, which will allow temperatures to warm and more moisture to work its way back into the state. Clouds will start to fill the sky late Wednesday as rain chances spread out overnight into Thursday. Low topped convection will lead to scattered rain chances Thursday. Winds shift northerly Friday and bring in surface high pressure and drier air for the weekend. Forecast Concerns: The next system coming across the state mid week will likely bring some breezy winds and more chances for precipitation. Winds, at this time, do not seem to be as gusty but more breezy - stronger in the warmer sector vs behind the frontal passage. The track of the surface low (which most ensembles agree with its passage to our south) is also such that the surface winds will back to the northeast, then north. So stronger confidence with breezy southwest winds ahead of a frontal boundary Wednesday. Most of the precipitation should remain rain as the upper trough will help to bring the warm sector up into Ontario CA. 850mb temps flirt with freezing near the end of Thursday as north winds start to take over, however an upper ridge and surface low up stream over the northern Plains will be advecting warm and moist air over MN. That air will likely move in for the weekend, keeping temperatures mild for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 640 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 Low-end MVFR or brief IFR conditions (mainly CIGs) expected for the first few hours of the 00Z TAF valid time across the northern Michigan terminals. However, conditions will improve to VFR tonight, with these conditions expected to persist for the remainder of the period once they develop. Gusty northerly winds will taper off this evening, with light/variable winds expected for most of Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016-017-020- 021-025-026-031-086>088-095>099. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ345-346. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ347>349. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAD LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...PBB