Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 011637

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1237 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

Issued at 1005 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

Inherited forecast largely remains on track. Did bump up cloud
cover along/south of M-72 as a band of high clouds continues to
stream across those areas. Otherwise, higher pressure gradually
continues to encroach on northern Michigan through the day with
high temperatures ranging from the low 70s to low 80s area-wide.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

...Thunder early, Then clearing...

High Impact Weather Potential...Morning thunderstorms, unlikely to
be severe.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast/Concerns...The cold front is slowly moving
through the forecast area, and with it is bringing mainly rain
showers, with a few rumbles of thunder. Rain has stopped (07z) north
of a line from Hammond Bay to Leland. The rain will continue to
southeast over the next several hours, with the expectation by most
of the models, that the rain will out of the forecast area around
12z/Fri. There is a very small chance that rain could still be
happening in southern Gladwin and Arenac counties around 12z, but
that should be relatively short period that it would happen. After
that, high pressure builds into the region and we get dry through
the rest of the day and tonight. Temperatures look to cool off again
today with highs ranging through the 70s, and into the lower 80s as
the cooler air moves into the region. Temperatures overnight look to
end up in the 50s over most of the region, with a few upper 40s
expected in the sheltered locations.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Chance of a few rumbles of thunder
Sunday and Monday.

An upper level low over St. James Bay will depart to the
east...leaving in it`s wake surface high pressure over the Great
Lakes region and a more zonal pattern. Although northern Michigan
will be under high pressure, there will be some moisture wrapped
around from the Gulf and east coast that may help to trigger some
showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder Sunday and
Monday...mostly during the late afternoon and overnight hours.
Although chances of showers and maybe thunder will be in the
forecast, it will by no means be a washout for the Fourth of July
holiday weekend. Winds should be fairly benign compared to of late,
with Saturday seeing the highest possible gusts of only around 20
mph out of the northwest. Winds are then light and variable with a
south to southwesterly component...especially during the
afternoon/evening hours as high pressure centers just to the east of
us. Temperatures will mainly be in the mid 70s to mid 80s, with
Monday being the warmest of the three days, although eastern upper
may only see the upper 60s to low 70s Saturday and low to mid 70s

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal at this time.

Pattern has signs of becoming a bit more progressive towards the end
of the next work week in long term models, but still low chances of
rain and maybe thunder through most of the work week as we remain
warm with some available moisture in the atmosphere to pop up a few
showers. Winds will have a more northerly component through the work
week, but not too gusty. Temperatures will remain near normal to
slightly above normal for this time of the year.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period as high pressure
gradually encroaches on northern Michigan. Generally light northwest
winds today will take on a more southwesterly component tonight
(remaining light) before turning northwesterly once again during the
day Saturday.


Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

Today through Saturday night...Winds have dropped off from
yesterday`s gustiness, and are now turning NW at 10 knots going into
the morning. High pressure will continue to keep the winds around 10
knots, but as the high moves through the wind direction will go from
NW this morning to southwest going into the evening ahead of the
next trough of low pressure. Saturday morning, the trough, which is
expected to be dry, will begin to turn the winds NW again with
speeds around 10 knots. A larger area of high pressure will build
into the Upper Great Lakes, and the winds will be variable at less
than 10 knots for Saturday night.




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