Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 252113
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
413 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Through Friday)
Issued at 413 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

...Lingering light snow showers tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low level wave continues to slide
through the northern lakes region with some semblance of a surface
trough now slipping through northeast Lower Michigan, and winds
turning sharply NNW behind the trough. Earlier spotty synoptic
precip has pretty much ended. But sharp wind shift line did
manage to drive band of lake effect snow off Lake Michigan and
through northern Lower Michigan over the last few hours, with a
hint of a convective element to the remaining precip. Also some
light lake effect snow showers still in eastern Lake Superior
impacting northern Chippewa county.

Low level wave exits quickly east of the region tonight followed
by surface high pressure and pocket of dry air building through
the region. Westerly flow and remaining colder air/lake
instability could yet drive some light lake effect snows into
parts of NW Lower and eastern Upper Michigan this evening. But
that should come to an end overnight as low level winds once again
back W->SW and begin to drive warmer low level air into the
region.

SW flow and further warming temperatures anticipated for Friday.
And with the dry air, we should see a fair amount of sunshine
along with temps warming into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 413 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Marginal...light snow and/or mix at
times...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Starting out the short term with broad
upstream troughing as ridging departs eastward toward the East Coast
of the US. Will see first chance at precipitation for the period
starting overnight Friday night into Saturday morning...with minor
shortwave axis sliding through early Saturday, followed quickly by
broad ridging. As has been the case more or less for the last
week...will see another shortwave move into the region quick on its
heels...this one with perhaps a bit more potency...as a lobe of more
arctic-based energy swings down into the vicinity of the Great Lakes
Sunday into Sunday night.

Primary Forecast Concerns: precipitation type issues at
times...perhaps gusty winds Sunday with cold fropa?

As shortwave approaches the Great Lakes...should see plume of
moisture approaching the area out ahead of upper level speed
max...positioning of which should lend itself to a bit of ascent for
this batch of warm advection precip. Attm...best synoptic moisture
looks to be over the area between 6z and 12z Saturday morning...so
should see bulk of the precipitation overnight Saturday into very
early Saturday morning...though synoptic moisture could linger
across the north half of the region into mid afternoon Saturday...as
baroclinic zone sets up across Great Lakes between downstream
shortwave...and stronger upstream shortwave in the western Plains.
Future shifts will have to continue to monitor for potential of some
rain mixing in at times...as surface temperatures look to rise early
Saturday morning...perhaps breaking the freezing mark in some
locations by Saturday morning as warm air advects into the region.
May additionally have to watch for freezing drizzle potential Friday
night with perhaps some mid-level drying leading to a desaturated
DGZ and perhaps lack of ice aloft.

Bulk of the precipitation with Sunday`s system attm looks to stay
primarily to our north and west...as best synoptic moisture looks to
stay across Wisconsin and the UP...though parts of northern lower
could see at least something as the shortwave slides through along
the flow...and attendant surface low follows suit, attm staying just
to our west. Will have to watch for lingering boundary from Friday
night`s system to move back northward as a warm front late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning...with cold front aloft and at the
surface following quickly behind for the day Sunday. As such...will
likely see at least some locations mix or completely switch to rain.
With jet aloft intensifying in the vicinity...will also have to
watch for some gustier winds to be mixed down to the surface as the
system tracks through...especially on the cold advection side of
things.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 413 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal...perhaps one more shot of
cold?

Today we get to start the long term period with uncertainty...as
there is lack of consensus in just how deep into the cold air we are
able to get Sunday night into Monday after northern stream shortwave
swings a secondary cold front into the region. Looks like highs
Monday will be early (esp the further north you go)...with temps
falling as that secondary cold front passes through. Just how far
they fall...well...will have to continue to monitor this going
forward. On the plus side...looks like temps will make a quick
rebound Tuesday as some ridging builds in and a more west-to-
southwesterly component of the flow returns to the Great Lakes.
Overall...uncertainty reigns for the majority of the long term. At
the very least...periodic chances for precip with fluctuations in
temperature are possible as we move into the month of March...and
kick off meteorological spring.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

Subtle area of low pressure is moving through the northern lakes
region currently, bringing spotty snow showers/lake enhanced snow
showers and MVFR conditions to northern Lower Michigan. System
will slip on through and east of the region by late afternoon
going into the evening. Some spotty lake induced snow showers will
linger into tonight. But for the most part, dry weather returns
and conditions will likely improve to VFR through tonight and
remain VFR through Friday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 413 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

A little bit of northwesterly gustiness will be felt on the lakes
tonight, particularly on the Lake Michigan side. A few gusts to
small craft criteria are possible. But, not planning on hoisting
any marine headlines for tonight.

Winds back SW for Friday and further increase in advance of
surface low pressure advancing through south-central Canada. More
bonafide small craft advisory gusts/waves are likely for Friday
but will let later shifts/overnight shift further evaluate.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA


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