033
FXUS63 KAPX 180838
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
438 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers decreasing in coverage from west to east this morning.

- Flooding and historically high flows continue within the vicinity
  of our river systems.

- Cold front will bring much colder temps this weekend, with falling
  temperatures through the day today.

- Drier conditions anticipated at least early to to mid next
  week, resulting in improvement to ongoing flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Cold front will be racing across Michigan this morning and midday,
with a band of showers along/ahead of the attendant boundary. Subtle
river rises and additional areas of flooding certainly possible
given additional rainfall from Friday night lingering into early
today, especially across northwest lower Michigan and eastern upper
Michigan (rain and saturated soils across NW lower and rain and
snowmelt in eastern upper). Nevertheless, the main batch of
precipitation will move quickly eastward through this morning as
winds shift sharply to the northwest, ending any joy from the
previous warmer stretch of weather. Consequently, temperatures will
fall through the day today with wind chills in the 20s and 30s
through the afternoon hours. Trough aloft digs over the Upper
Midwest into Sunday with secondary frontal boundary reinforcing the
seasonably cold temperatures. A mix of snow showers and lake
influenced snow showers will be possible later today into tonight
and then on Sunday as the cold pool aloft moves over northern MI.
Snow showers will be possible along the secondary frontal boundary
during the day on Sunday as well. Just some very minor accumulations
possible as low level moisture quality looks suspect, but worth
keeping an eye on. Winds increase behind the frontal boundary today,
remaining breezy through Sunday.

Upper troughing pulls away early next week, with drier conditions
overall as high pressure builds overhead on Monday. Quick moving
upper trough across Canada and attendant boundary late Monday night
into Tuesday may result in a slight chance for a shower, mainly to
the north, but the thought is most of the area will continue with
dry conditions.

Dry conditions continue through at least mid next week with
increasing temperatures as high pressure builds in. The warming
trend is expected to continue late next week due to significant
height rises as ridging aloft aloft builds. All the while,
significant troughing dives into the Pac NW and shifts east into the
Northern Plains and vicinity. Resultant pattern would likely lead to
increasing precipitation chances during the late week - next weekend
time frame. Despite this increase in precipitation chances later
next week into next weekend, hydro concerns will slowly relax
through much of this upcoming week due to the mostly dry conditions
and subsiding river levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Gradually improving conditions with cigs increasing and
scattering out to VFR through the day. More of the same
overnight with generally higher based VFR producing cigs. May
see a few light showers of both rain and snow fall out of this
cloud deck, but with little to any impact. Gusty northwest winds
today become more west and decrease in speed tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Anomalous and persistent rainfall in conjunction with snowmelt over
the last week or two (amongst other longer scale hydrologic and
meteorologic reasons) has resulted in historic river, small stream,
and areal flooding in addition to a tremendous amount of road
washouts across northern Michigan. Some areas are relaxing, at least
to some extent, with the latest hydrographs and National Water Model
inundation extent showing the Pigeon River and Sturgeon River with
decreasing water levels and less inundation now compared to the last
week. That being said, especially along the Sturgeon River from
Wolverine up towards Indian River, there is likely remaining
inundation and ponding of water based on how saturated the soils
are. On the other hand, much of the rest of our major river systems
continue to have significantly high water levels and flow with many
streams continuing to exhibit flow (cfs) equal to or greater than a
1 in 50 year value. Another monumental river flood is occurring
along the Manistee River, which continues with major flooding
(currently 18.4 ft vs 16.9 ft which is the previous the record at
gauge location SHRM4 (Sherman, MI)). Other locations that are
currently experiencing flooding include the Thunder Bay River, the
Au Grey River, the Black River, and the Rifle River, to name a few.
Additionally, elevated lake levels have resulted in flooding across
the Tip of the Mitt.

The Cheboygan Dam is still being monitored at this time, along with
a couple of other Dams upstream, although generally positive news
has been reported at this time. The Bellaire Dam continues with a
flash flood watch out of precaution at this time.

A general quarter to half an inch in spots with locally higher
amounts (late Friday night into early today) will bump some river
levels up some through the early portions of the weekend, mainly
west of I-75. The snowmelt from yesterday and snowpack in general
across the E UP makes them sensitive to any moderate precipitation
as well through the early portions of today, although it is unclear
how much rain will fall north of the bridge and how much flooding
has or has not occurred in that area. Thus, leaving the Flood Watch
for now through Sunday AM but one could argue to end it earlier,
closer to MQTs end time. Additionally, soil moisture levels remain
~50-70% still across a good chunk of northern lower Michigan, so any
moderate rain (Friday night) could cause impacts into this morning.
Even so, a general drying trend is expected, especially into much of
next week, with river levels slowly relaxing through the week (some
variation certainly depending on the river system), as noted by the
HEFS 10 Day River Level Probabilities.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MIZ086>088-095-096.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...MSB
HYDROLOGY...