Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 201524 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
924 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018

Winds have subsided below advisory levels at the vast majority of gap
wind prone areas this morning. Made some other changes to adjust PoPs
and sky cover in line with latest satellite obs and 12Z model data
thru tonight.



.PREV DISCUSSION...627 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018...
Ceilings have been slow to develop across the eastern plains, but
the latest GOES-East GeoColor and IFR Probability imagery indicate
activity starting to blossom. Cloud decks are ranging from 1500 ft
near KCVS/KCVN to 4000 and 6000 ft at KTCC and KROW respectively.
According to the latest HRRR, these clouds should dissipate by mid-
to late morning, lingering the longest in Curry/Roosevelt Counties
and the Sacramento Mtns. Canyon winds continue to impact the Rio
Grande Valley, including KABQ, but the strongest speeds have likely
already occurred. Another crop of showers and thunderstorms will be
common along and immediately east of the central mountain chain by
afternoon. Probabilities are too low to include anything more than
VCSH at KLVS at this time. Models suggest precip could persist well
into the overnight hours in eastern NM, but pinpointing potential
impacts this far out is too difficult. Will monitor and adjust TAFs
accordingly with future updates. DPorter


.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018...
...Corrected Discussion...

A backdoor front will continue to push through eastern New Mexico
this morning and into the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Winds
will remain elevated in channeled terrain along the Central Mountain
Chain through this evening. Southerly flow will develop over the
state Monday, bringing with it widespread showers and thunderstorms
as far west as the Continental Divide. Some storms may be severe,
mainly east of the the Central Mountain Chain. Temperatures will
gradually increase through the week as a ridge builds over the


In the short term, showers and thunderstorms have ended over the
Eastern Plains as the front has pushed southward and the activity has
shifted eastward into Texas. Winds have increased in channeled areas
along the Central Mountain Chain. These winds will remain brisk
through the day with a wind advisory in effect until 10 AM today.
PoPs have been reduced today with this package as the main focus
of precipitation looks to be mainly along the higher terrain with
the best chances along the Sangres this afternoon.

Precipitation chances will increase over most of New Mexico on
Monday as moist southerly flow combined with a weak shortwave will
bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms as far west as the
Continental Divide. The current outlook from the NWS Storm Prediction
Center has a marginal risk for severe weather for most of the region
on Monday. As of now, the best dynamics look to be over the Eastern
Plains where the main threat looks to be weak supercells with a
hail/wind threat. Model 0-1km CAPE values over the Eastern Plains
surge to near 3000 J/kg Monday afternoon with guidance suggesting
storm initiation being aided by the terrain. Any thunderstorms that
develop near the Continental Divide on Monday will likely be mostly
dry with gusty outflow winds. While widespread severe weather is not
anticipated at this time, future forecast packages should be
monitored for any changes.

For the remainder of the forecast package, showers and thunderstorms
will linger over the Eastern Plains through the period as a ridge
begins to reestablish itself over the Southwest. Temperatures will
increase through week as the ridge builds over the area.



A backdoor cold front cleared the eastern plains of NM this morning
and is making its way through the Rio Grande Valley. Higher boundary
layer moisture and non-desiccating humidities are noted in its wake.
This surge of moisture will propagate toward the AZ/NM state line by
mid- or late morning. The biggest forecast challenge is related to
the relatively sharp moisture gradient between the AZ border and Rio
Grande Valley over the next couple of days due to moisture advection
Sun night and Monday and the recycling of moisture through afternoon
and evening convection.

Showers/storms today will be favored across the northern and south
central mtns as well as the adjacent highlands. Virga showers cannot
be ruled out across the Rio Grande Valley, resulting in gusty and/or
erratic winds. Upper level storm system diving into southern CA will
enhance upper level dynamics to support a broader risk for storms on
Monday into Tuesday. Based on local rules of thumb, it appears a mix
of wet/dry storms are expected from the AZ border to the Cont Divide
on Monday, resulting in an LAL of 6. Meanwhile, winds will increase
over western NM and may result in elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions during peak heating. SPC Day 2 Outlook highlights
elevated fire weather in our western zones, but will defer any watch
considerations for another forecast cycle due to the aforementioned
moisture challenges. On Tuesday, the mix of wet/dry storms should be
confined between the Cont Divide and central mountain chain.

Moisture will be shunted further east by mid-week as the upper level
storm system weakens and tracks through the Great Basin, with shower
and thunderstorm activity confined to the eastern plains. Afternoon
humidities will return to the single digits across the west. A lack
of significant winds will limit the threat for critical fire weather
conditions. Models diverge on the pattern for late in the week, with
the GFS20 rather bullish on another backdoor cold front replenishing
low-level moisture and higher precipitation chances. DPorter




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